Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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067
FXUS64 KMAF 081117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
517 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show bands of -SN streaming across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this morning. This activity is forecast to
continue thru around 18Z or so. Until then, cigs/vsbys will vary
mainly between MVFR and IFR as snowfall intensity fluctuates. All
terminals should scatter out to VFR this afternoon once the
shortwave passes, and remain so until the end of the forecast
period except KHOB. Buffer soundings redevelop MVFR cigs there
after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..Very cold temperatures are here along with a wintry mix of sleet,
freezing rain and snow...

A strong, Arctic cold front continues to barrel south across the
area this morning with sharply colder conditions behind it.
Temperatures have fallen into the 20`s across SE NM and the Permian
Basin with 30`s and 40`s to the south. The Hard Freeze Warning for
the eastern and central Permian Basin looks good and will let it
ride through the morning. Meanwhile, strong gap winds continue
behind the front at Guadalupe Pass so will continue the High Wind
Warning through mid morning there.

As if that is not enough, a weak disturbance is generating enough
lift for a narrow band of light to moderate precipitation along
mainly the I-10 and I-20 corridors. We are seeing snow across the
Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin while areas along I-10 are
seeing rain begin to mix with freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Have
opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from the Guadalupe
Mountains east to the central Permian Basin. An inch or two of
snow is not out of the question along the I-20 corridor west to
the Guadalupe Mountains. Further south along I-10, freezing rain
may be more of a problem as cold air dams up against the higher
terrain. We typically see issues on the roads near the I-10/I-20
split during this type of event. This advisory will go until Noon
today as any precipitation should be ending around then.

Don`t expect much of a warmup this afternoon as CAA continues along
with the clouds and precipitation. High temperatures will struggle
to get above freezing for the majority of the CWA. Clouds begin to
clear a bit late tonight, mainly across the Permian Basin. This will
allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20`s with freezing
temperatures possible all the way to the Rio Grande. Will upgrade
the Freeze watch to a warning for locations that have yet to see a
hard freeze or a freeze at all.

Slightly warmer conditions arrive Friday afternoon amid return flow
as high temperatures climb into the 40`s. This weekend is looking
dry and fairly nice as a more zonal mid level flow sets up across
the area. This will keep the cold air to our north and allow for
temperatures to warm back above normal. We may see a weak front on
Monday, but our attention turns back to the north as more Arctic air
builds over Canada. Models continue to have trouble with this
airmass, but indications are that it will again be released south
possibly entering our area by the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  24  43  31 /  50   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  22  46  29 /  30   0   0   0
Dryden                         40  30  45  30 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  32  26  49  34 /  40   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  22  45  35 /  30   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  21  41  28 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  22  48  27 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  24  43  30 /  60   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  24  43  31 /  60   0   0   0
Wink                           32  24  45  29 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Southern
     Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-
     Terrell-Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

44/29/44

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