Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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487
FXUS64 KMAF 272245
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
545 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected for much of the night across the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. A cold front will plunge
south late tonight and early Sunday morning (28/09z to 28/13z)
resulting in a sudden wind shift to the north and increasing winds
of 20 to 30 mph and gusty. MVFR ceilings will quickly develop
behind the front and continue Sunday morning. VFR conditions
with decreasing winds are expected by Sunday afternoon at all
terminals except KFST, where MVFR ceilings will continue through
early to mid afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Significant changes will occur during the next 24 hours, especially
concerning temperatures Sunday and beyond, and precipitation chances
next week.  Westerly flow aloft is prevailing over the region this
afternoon, which will aid high temperatures topping out 5 to 10
degrees above normal.  The flow aloft and hot temperatures are also
fostering fire weather concerns, so please see the Fire Weather
Discussion below for further details.  Despite some mid level
moisture traversing the region associated with a weak shortwave
trough, dry surface air has pushed eastward into west central Texas
this afternoon, which will preclude thunderstorm development over
most of the area.  The exception may be over the Lower Trans Pecos
where low level moisture could get hung up, and provide a focus for
a few storms this afternoon/evening.  In addition, a few models
attempt to develop showers and storms along a retreating dryline
tonight, but will only carry a slight chance over the southeastern
third of the forecast area since there does not appear to be any mid
level support for development.

An upper trough currently extending from the north central U.S.
Plains, southwestward into the central Rockies, will translate
eastward tonight/Sunday and send a cold front south through the
region in it`s wake.  We could see showers and thunderstorms develop
along and behind the front tonight/Sunday, especially over the Big
Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos.  A strong/severe storm or two
could occur, both late this afternoon/evening and tonight/Sunday.
Temperatures on Sunday will be 10 to 15 degrees lower than today as
the front pushes south across the Rio Grande by early afternoon.
Northerly winds could approach/eclipse wind advisory level over
portions of the plains, but the duration/strength does not appear to
be there so will not issue a Wind Advisory.  Northeast gap winds
through Guadalupe Pass could rise to 35-50 mph sustained for a few
hours, so will issue a High Wind Warning there from 28/10Z to
28/18Z.

Weak westerly flow aloft undercutting an upper ridge over the
western CONUS will result in a couple of weak shortwave troughs
traversing the area Monday and Tuesday.  Thereafter, a negatively
tilted upper trough will form over the west coast, with the
southernmost extent of this feature extending over southeastern New
Mexico and west Texas Tuesday through the end of next week.  This
setup, along with persistent easterly, upslope low level flow will
provide a chance of rain over most of the forecast area, but
especially wednesday through Friday.  Some models cutoff an upper
low over the region next Friday, which would portend even better
rain chances than will be included in the forecast at this time. All
the upslope flow, cloud cover and rain chances will contribute to
high temperatures staying at or below normal through the week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Gusty westerly winds will be across the area this afternoon into
early this evening. Winds will be 20 mph or more across the
Guadalupe Mountains, parts of Culberson County, and the southeast
New Mexico plains. Low relative humidity values will be present
across most of the CWA this afternoon with many places experiencing
RH values in the single digits. Temperatures will be around 10
degrees above normal today. These conditions will allow for critical
fire weather conditions across the Guadalupe Mountains, parts of
Culberson County, and the southeast New Mexico plains. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for this area this afternoon into the evening.
Conditions will improve tomorrow with a cold front moving into the
area tonight/Sunday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  85  61  85 /  10  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       63  86  61  86 /   0  10  10  20
Dryden                         73  88  68  80 /  20  40  50  60
Fort Stockton                  68  87  63  82 /  10  20  30  40
Guadalupe Pass                 57  79  59  79 /  10  10  20  20
Hobbs                          58  83  57  83 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          54  84  58  80 /  10  20  30  60
Midland Intl Airport           64  87  62  86 /  10  10  20  20
Odessa                         65  87  62  86 /  10  10  20  20
Wink                           62  87  62  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 4 AM to noon MDT Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

80/67
683
FXUS64 KMAF 271720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Gusty westerly winds will be present this afternoon. Winds will
diminish and become variable this evening then a cold front with
gusty northerly winds will move into the area between 09z and 13z.
Low ceilings will develop and move into the area along and behind
the front. Winds will diminish some later in the morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The start of Memorial Day Weekend will be a hot one, though a
strong cold front tonight will bring much cooler temperatures to
the area. Thunderstorm chances will also return on Sunday and
Monday, becoming more widespread Tuesday onward. Below normal
temperatures are expected from Sunday through the end of next
week.

Another unseasonably hot day is on tap across Southeast New Mexico
and West Texas today. Given 850mb temperatures similar to, or even
slightly warmer than yesterday, expect highs into the mid 90s and
lower 100s once again for most. Also, there look to be less high
clouds across the region today, thus would not be surprised if a
few locations are a degree or two warmer than on Friday. The only
locations that look to escape the hot temperatures today are
across higher terrain, where middle to upper 80s are expected this
afternoon. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds will develop
this afternoon, and given the continued hot and dry pattern,
critical fire weather conditions are once again expected to
develop across Southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
most of Culberson county. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for
these areas, please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for
additional details.

Overnight tonight, a retreating dryline looks to edge into
southeastern portions of the forecast area, resulting in a chance
of thunderstorms, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos into
eastern portions of the Big Bend Area. The primary focus continues
to be on a strong cold front that will make its way south into
the area overnight tonight. The NAM is about 3 hours faster with
the front than the GFS, though the overall consensus is that the
front will be south of the Pecos River by late morning, and to the
Rio Grande by late Sunday afternoon. Given the timing of the
front, the best rain chances on Sunday look to be focused
primarily along and west of the Pecos River, with drier air
settling in across the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico.
Ahead of the front, warm temperatures as well as continued
westerly to southwesterly flow aloft are expected to result in
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, a few of
which may become strong. The big story with the front will be much
cooler temperatures, with highs on Sunday expected to be in the
lower to middle 80s for most of the area, with 90s confined to the
Rio Grande Valley. Breezy northeasterly winds are also expected
in the wake of the front, with winds becoming gusty at times,
particularly across the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico,
though these winds will diminish by Sunday night.

Persistent easterly to southeasterly flow behind the front will
maintain ample moisture across the area well into next week, with
widespread cloudcover expected to keep temperatures below normal
each afternoon. Highs through next Thursday look to generally be
in the upper 70s and 80s, with lows each night in the 50s and 60s.
A series of disturbances in the flow aloft will keep
rain/thunderstorm chances in the forecast each day next week as
well, though the best opportunity for widespread precipitation
looks to be Tuesday and Wednesday, as a negatively tilted trough
takes shape across the Desert Southwest and moves toward the area.
While guidance differs on the evolution of this feature, it
appears the overall trend will be for rain chances to gradually
shift eastward by Friday, with slightly warmer, but still below
normal temperatures expected for the end of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns continue to be heightened today as the drying and
heat continue to wear on. Southeast New Mexico and Culberson
County will again be the favored areas for critical conditions
with high to very high fire danger. ERCs have rose to around the
75th percentile. The strongest west winds of 15-25 mph in the
plains, 25-35 mph in the GDP Mtns will occur between 2 and 6 PM
MDT. A cold front Sunday AM will bring an end to the critical fire
wx, and the chance of rain will increase into mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  66  83  62 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       98  59  84  58 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        100  73  88  67 /  10  30  40  50
Fort Stockton                  99  66  81  63 /  10  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 89  57  76  56 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          94  57  81  54 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          92  57  80  56 /   0  10  20  30
Midland Intl Airport          100  63  83  60 /   0  10  20  20
Odessa                        100  64  82  60 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                          101  61  86  61 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/
168
FXUS64 KMAF 271135
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
635 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION... See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Satellite shows MVFR CIGS ~60nm SE of MAF and developing NW. Some
short-term high resolution models briefly bring low clouds into
MAF and based on latest satellite loops we will opt to carry a
TEMPO MVFR CIG group between 12Z-14Z at MAF. Otherwise w winds
near 20kts will prevail. Of next concern is the cold front that
will arrive right at the end of this forecast period. NE wind of
20-25 mph are expected around 12Z/28 with brief MVFR CIGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The start of Memorial Day Weekend will be a hot one, though a
strong cold front tonight will bring much cooler temperatures to
the area. Thunderstorm chances will also return on Sunday and
Monday, becoming more widespread Tuesday onward. Below normal
temperatures are expected from Sunday through the end of next
week.

Another unseasonably hot day is on tap across Southeast New Mexico
and West Texas today. Given 850mb temperatures similar to, or even
slightly warmer than yesterday, expect highs into the mid 90s and
lower 100s once again for most. Also, there look to be less high
clouds across the region today, thus would not be surprised if a
few locations are a degree or two warmer than on Friday. The only
locations that look to escape the hot temperatures today are
across higher terrain, where middle to upper 80s are expected this
afternoon. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds will develop
this afternoon, and given the continued hot and dry pattern,
critical fire weather conditions are once again expected to
develop across Southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
most of Culberson county. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for
these areas, please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for
additional details.

Overnight tonight, a retreating dryline looks to edge into
southeastern portions of the forecast area, resulting in a chance
of thunderstorms, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos into
eastern portions of the Big Bend Area. The primary focus continues
to be on a strong cold front that will make its way south into
the area overnight tonight. The NAM is about 3 hours faster with
the front than the GFS, though the overall consensus is that the
front will be south of the Pecos River by late morning, and to the
Rio Grande by late Sunday afternoon. Given the timing of the
front, the best rain chances on Sunday look to be focused
primarily along and west of the Pecos River, with drier air
settling in across the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico.
Ahead of the front, warm temperatures as well as continued
westerly to southwesterly flow aloft are expected to result in
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, a few of
which may become strong. The big story with the front will be much
cooler temperatures, with highs on Sunday expected to be in the
lower to middle 80s for most of the area, with 90s confined to the
Rio Grande Valley. Breezy northeasterly winds are also expected
in the wake of the front, with winds becoming gusty at times,
particularly across the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico,
though these winds will diminish by Sunday night.

Persistent easterly to southeasterly flow behind the front will
maintain ample moisture across the area well into next week, with
widespread cloudcover expected to keep temperatures below normal
each afternoon. Highs through next Thursday look to generally be
in the upper 70s and 80s, with lows each night in the 50s and 60s.
A series of disturbances in the flow aloft will keep
rain/thunderstorm chances in the forecast each day next week as
well, though the best opportunity for widespread precipitation
looks to be Tuesday and Wednesday, as a negatively tilted trough
takes shape across the Desert Southwest and moves toward the area.
While guidance differs on the evolution of this feature, it
appears the overall trend will be for rain chances to gradually
shift eastward by Friday, with slightly warmer, but still below
normal temperatures expected for the end of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns continue to be heightened today as the drying and
heat continue to wear on. Southeast New Mexico and Culberson
County will again be the favored areas for critical conditions
with high to very high fire danger. ERCs have rose to around the
75th percentile. The strongest west winds of 15-25 mph in the
plains, 25-35 mph in the GDP Mtns will occur between 2 and 6 PM
MDT. A cold front Sunday AM will bring an end to the critical fire
wx, and the chance of rain will increase into mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  66  83  62 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       98  59  84  58 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        100  73  88  67 /  10  30  40  50
Fort Stockton                  99  66  81  63 /  10  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 89  57  76  56 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          94  57  81  54 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          92  57  80  56 /   0  10  20  30
Midland Intl Airport          100  63  83  60 /   0  10  20  20
Odessa                        100  64  82  60 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                          101  61  86  61 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
597
FXUS64 KMAF 271111
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Satellite shows MVFR CIGS ~60nm SE of MAF and developing NW. Some
short-term high resolution models briefly bring low clouds into
MAF and based on latest satellite loops we will opt to carry a
TEMPO MVFR CIG group between 12Z-14Z at MAF. Otherwise w winds
near 20kts will prevail. Of next concern is the cold front that
will arrive right at the end of this forecast period. NE wind of
20-25 mph are expected around 12Z/28 with brief MVFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The start of Memorial Day Weekend will be a hot one, though a
strong cold front tonight will bring much cooler temperatures to
the area. Thunderstorm chances will also return on Sunday and
Monday, becoming more widespread Tuesday onward. Below normal
temperatures are expected from Sunday through the end of next
week.

Another unseasonably hot day is on tap across Southeast New Mexico
and West Texas today. Given 850mb temperatures similar to, or even
slightly warmer than yesterday, expect highs into the mid 90s and
lower 100s once again for most. Also, there look to be less high
clouds across the region today, thus would not be surprised if a
few locations are a degree or two warmer than on Friday. The only
locations that look to escape the hot temperatures today are
across higher terrain, where middle to upper 80s are expected this
afternoon. Breezy west to southwest downslope winds will develop
this afternoon, and given the continued hot and dry pattern,
critical fire weather conditions are once again expected to
develop across Southeast New Mexico, the Guadalupe Mountains, and
most of Culberson county. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for
these areas, please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for
additional details.

Overnight tonight, a retreating dryline looks to edge into
southeastern portions of the forecast area, resulting in a chance
of thunderstorms, mainly across the Lower Trans Pecos into
eastern portions of the Big Bend Area. The primary focus continues
to be on a strong cold front that will make its way south into
the area overnight tonight. The NAM is about 3 hours faster with
the front than the GFS, though the overall consensus is that the
front will be south of the Pecos River by late morning, and to the
Rio Grande by late Sunday afternoon. Given the timing of the
front, the best rain chances on Sunday look to be focused
primarily along and west of the Pecos River, with drier air
settling in across the Permian Basin and southeastern New Mexico.
Ahead of the front, warm temperatures as well as continued
westerly to southwesterly flow aloft are expected to result in
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, a few of
which may become strong. The big story with the front will be much
cooler temperatures, with highs on Sunday expected to be in the
lower to middle 80s for most of the area, with 90s confined to the
Rio Grande Valley. Breezy northeasterly winds are also expected
in the wake of the front, with winds becoming gusty at times,
particularly across the Permian Basin and Southeast New Mexico,
though these winds will diminish by Sunday night.

Persistent easterly to southeasterly flow behind the front will
maintain ample moisture across the area well into next week, with
widespread cloudcover expected to keep temperatures below normal
each afternoon. Highs through next Thursday look to generally be
in the upper 70s and 80s, with lows each night in the 50s and 60s.
A series of disturbances in the flow aloft will keep
rain/thunderstorm chances in the forecast each day next week as
well, though the best opportunity for widespread precipitation
looks to be Tuesday and Wednesday, as an inverted trough takes
shape across the Desert Southwest and moves toward the area. While
guidance differs on the evolution of this feature, it appears the
overall trend will be for rain chances to gradually shift
eastward by Friday, with slightly warmer, but still below normal
temperatures expected for the end of next week.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns continue to be heightened today as the drying and
heat continue to wear on. Southeast New Mexico and Culberson
County will again be the favored areas for critical conditions
with high to very high fire danger. ERCs have rose to around the
75th percentile. The strongest west winds of 15-25 mph in the
plains, 25-35 mph in the GDP Mtns will occur between 2 and 6 PM
MDT. A cold front Sunday AM will bring an end to the critical fire
wx, and the chance of rain will increase into mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  66  83  62 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       98  59  84  58 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                        100  73  88  67 /  10  30  40  50
Fort Stockton                  99  66  81  63 /  10  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 89  57  76  56 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          94  57  81  54 /   0   0  10  10
Marfa                          92  57  80  56 /   0  10  20  30
Midland Intl Airport          100  63  83  60 /   0  10  20  20
Odessa                        100  64  82  60 /   0  10  10  20
Wink                          101  61  86  61 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 10 PM CDT /9
     PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
621
FXUS64 KMAF 270517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1217 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread VFR conditions thru the forecast. Sustained w wind
will increase to near 20kts by 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     99  65  82  60 /   0  10  30  20
Carlsbad                       96  59  84  57 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         99  72  88  66 /  10  30  40  50
Fort Stockton                  98  67  82  61 /  10  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 86  58  76  54 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                          92  57  81  54 /   0  10  10  10
Marfa                          91  58  81  55 /   0  20  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           99  64  82  59 /   0  10  20  30
Odessa                         98  64  82  59 /   0  10  20  20
Wink                           98  63  85  60 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM MDT Saturday through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today through this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$
712
FXUS64 KMAF 262308
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
608 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Gusty west to southwest winds
will diminish near sunset with south to southwest winds of
generally 10 mph or less expected overnight through mid Saturday
morning. Winds will become westerly and increase to 15 to 25 mph
and gusty by mid to late Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A broad upper level jet is currently streaming moisture in the
form of mid and upper level clouds across West Texas and
southeastern New Mexico this afternoon. Most models do not show
any precip from this, however the GFS/RAP/HRRR all show some
widely scattered convection developing in an area from near
Presidio to Midland so have introduced some low PoPs this evening
to account for this. Westerly flow will continue for one more day
tomorrow with highs again reaching the upper 90s and low 100s at
many locations.

A low over south central Canada will send a cold front through the
area on Sunday dropping high temperatures back into the 80s. A
dryline ahead of the front will be a surface focus for convection
Saturday evening in our southeastern CWA with another chance for
scattered showers coming with the cold front early Sunday morning.
The front will scour moisture out of the Permian Basin leaving it
mainly west of the Pecos River Monday and Tuesday where PoPs will
be highest.

Models are in fairly good agreement that the remainder of next
week will be relatively cool and possibly wet. All have highs in
the 80s (90s along the Rio Grande) and rain across the area, the
main question is timing and amounts. An upper low will form over
southern California/northwestern Mexico on Wednesday and will
drift east the latter part of next week. Forecast uncertainty is
in the strength of the low and timing of numerous disturbances it
ejects across our area. At this time the most likely scenario is
the low (or strong s/w trough) will provide the highest rain
chances on Tuesday and Wednesday, with PoPs decreasing Thursday
and Friday as the system moves off to our east. But again the
timing is very uncertain so for now will just try to capture the
general cooler and wetter trend.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
WV imagery shows SW flow aloft continues over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico, while at the sfc, gusty westerly downslope
warming has resulted in another warm afternoon, w/consequent RH at
15% or less over much of the area.  A canopy of mid/high cloud has
put a damper on mixing, and wind speeds are not as high as
previously anticipated. The dryline is currently east of the CWA,
but will retreat somewhat after sunset.

Temperatures Saturday will be similar to today`s, and continued
westerly flow and poor recovery overnight will result in widespread
single-digit RH again Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings mix
again to around, on average, 625mb, where 30-40kt SW flow is
forecast. This will once again result in critical fire wx conditions
over SE NM and most of Culberson County, where RTFIs of 7-8 are
forecast. Thus, we`ll issue another Fire Wx Watch for Saturday
afternoon. ERC is now at or above-normal for the entire forecast
area, but critical winds do not look to materialize for areas
outside the watch Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  99  65  82 /  10   0  10  30
Carlsbad                       65  96  59  84 /  10   0   0  10
Dryden                         74  99  72  88 /  20  10  30  40
Fort Stockton                  71  98  67  82 /  20  10  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 64  86  58  76 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                          62  92  57  81 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          60  91  58  81 /  20   0  20  30
Midland Intl Airport           70  99  64  82 /  20   0  10  20
Odessa                         70  98  64  82 /  20   0  10  20
Wink                           67  98  63  85 /  20   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

12/10
980
FXUS64 KMAF 261546
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail in continued westerly flow next 24
hours except KMAF. Return flow is forecast to surge after sunset,
pushing the dryline N-NW thru KMAF, followed by a few hours of
MVFR stratus. Westerly flow will push this back east shortly after
sunrise, however. A few high clouds will be possible. Convective
temps will be too high for significant cu development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 553 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
No change from previous forecast. VFR wx today as dry west
increase to around 20kts at CNM by 19Z, elsewhere w-sw around
15kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another hot day is on tap across Southeast New Mexico and West
Texas, as an 850mb thermal ridge remains anchored over the area,
and dry southwesterly flow aloft and westerly surface flow
result in downslope warming. 850mb temperatures look to top out
today at 29C to 30C, compared to yesterday`s 30C to 32C, thus
temperatures today will likely be a degree or two cooler than
yesterday for most, though it will hardly be noticeable. High
temperatures this afternoon are expected to reach the mid 90s to
lower 100s areawide, with hottest temperatures expected through
the Rio Grande Valley, where highs could reach the 105-110 degree
range. The only exceptions will be across the higher terrain of
the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, where highs will be in the
middle to upper 80s. The record high for Midland today is 100
degrees, which occurred on May 26, 1991. Given today`s forecast
high of 101 degrees, this record could fall. The hot temperatures
and continued dry, breezy conditions will result in critical fire
weather conditions across the west this afternoon and evening. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect, please see the Fire Weather
Discussion below for additional details.

Tonight, lows will generally be in the 60s and 70s, though a few
upper 50s will be possible across northern Lea county and higher
terrain.  Saturday, the thermal ridge will shift southward, though
highs generally in the 90s to around 100 degrees will continue to
be the rule, with the exception of higher terrain where highs will
again top out in the 80s. Saturday night, a retreating dryline
may edge into the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley, and a
subtle shortwave in the southwesterly flow aloft may be enough
to result in a few thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos, though confidence in this scenario is not very
high. Attention continues to be focused on Sunday, when a big
change is expected as a cold front moves through the area. After
several days of well above normal temperatures, temperatures
Sunday will drop below normal, with highs in the lower to middle
80s for most, and 90s/100s confined to the Rio Grande Valley.
Moisture will increase with the front on Sunday, resulting in the
next chance of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the
southeastern Permian Basin southwestward to the Big Bend Area and
points east. Easterly to southeasterly surface flow will continue
to usher moisture into the region through midweek next week, with
ensemble guidance indicating precipitable water values one
standard deviation above normal from Monday afternoon through
Wednesday for much of the area. A series of disturbances in the
flow aloft will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast areawide
through next week, with the continued easterly/southeasterly flow
maintaining below normal temperatures through the extended.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns will remain heightened today, especially for
Southeast New Mexico and Culberson County. Although it will remain
dry all day, even this morning, critical conditions in the plains
will be most common from midday into the early evening when winds
will be strongest, 15-25 mph, 25-35 mph in the GDP Mtns. With such
dry conditions fire danger will very high to extreme. Critical
fire wx on Saturday is most favored in the GDP Mtns. A cold front
on Sunday will decreased fire wx concerns into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  71 100  66 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       98  64  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        101  74 100  73 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                 100  71  99  67 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 89  65  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  61  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          92  57  92  55 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  71 100  65 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                        100  71 100  65 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                          101  66 100  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

44/10/44
138
FXUS64 KMAF 261053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
553 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
No change from previous forecast. VFR wx today as dry west
increase to around 20kts at CNM by 19Z, elsewhere w-sw around
15kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Another hot day is on tap across Southeast New Mexico and West
Texas, as an 850mb thermal ridge remains anchored over the area,
and dry southwesterly flow aloft and westerly surface flow
result in downslope warming. 850mb temperatures look to top out
today at 29C to 30C, compared to yesterday`s 30C to 32C, thus
temperatures today will likely be a degree or two cooler than
yesterday for most, though it will hardly be noticeable. High
temperatures this afternoon are expected to reach the mid 90s to
lower 100s areawide, with hottest temperatures expected through
the Rio Grande Valley, where highs could reach the 105-110 degree
range. The only exceptions will be across the higher terrain of
the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains, where highs will be in the
middle to upper 80s. The record high for Midland today is 100
degrees, which occurred on May 26, 1991. Given today`s forecast
high of 101 degrees, this record could fall. The hot temperatures
and continued dry, breezy conditions will result in critical fire
weather conditions across the west this afternoon and evening. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect, please see the Fire Weather
Discussion below for additional details.

Tonight, lows will generally be in the 60s and 70s, though a few
upper 50s will be possible across northern Lea county and higher
terrain.  Saturday, the thermal ridge will shift southward, though
highs generally in the 90s to around 100 degrees will continue to
be the rule, with the exception of higher terrain where highs will
again top out in the 80s. Saturday night, a retreating dryline
may edge into the Lower Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley, and a
subtle shortwave in the southwesterly flow aloft may be enough
to result in a few thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos, though confidence in this scenario is not very
high. Attention continues to be focused on Sunday, when a big
change is expected as a cold front moves through the area. After
several days of well above normal temperatures, temperatures
Sunday will drop below normal, with highs in the lower to middle
80s for most, and 90s/100s confined to the Rio Grande Valley.
Moisture will increase with the front on Sunday, resulting in the
next chance of showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the
southeastern Permian Basin southwestward to the Big Bend Area and
points east. Easterly to southeasterly surface flow will continue
to usher moisture into the region through midweek next week, with
ensemble guidance indicating precipitable water values one
standard deviation above normal from Monday afternoon through
Wednesday for much of the area. A series of disturbances in the
flow aloft will keep thunderstorm chances in the forecast areawide
through next week, with the continued easterly/southeasterly flow
maintaining below normal temperatures through the extended.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns will remain heightened today, especially for
Southeast New Mexico and Culberson County. Although it will remain
dry all day, even this morning, critical conditions in the plains
will be most common from midday into the early evening when winds
will be strongest, 15-25 mph, 25-35 mph in the GDP Mtns. With such
dry conditions fire danger will very high to extreme. Critical
fire wx on Saturday is most favored in the GDP Mtns. A cold front
on Sunday will decreased fire wx concerns into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  71 100  66 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       98  64  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        101  74 100  73 /   0   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                 100  71  99  67 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 89  65  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  61  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          92  57  92  55 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          101  71 100  65 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                        100  71 100  65 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                          101  66 100  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
037
FXUS64 KMAF 260504
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1204 AM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation and fire wx discussions below

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR wx today as dry west increase to around 20kts at CNM by 21Z,
elsewhere w-sw around 15kts or less.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning has expired in the zone 114/115. We will be
evaluating watch that is in effect today for same area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    101  70 100  67 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       98  62  97  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        102  73 101  73 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                 100  69  99  67 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 90  63  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          96  62  94  58 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          92  57  92  56 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  69  99  67 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         99  68  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          102  65 100  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from 10 AM MDT Friday through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning
     through this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
125
FXUS64 KMAF 251555
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1055 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in gusty westerly flow,
w/plenty of high clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. West-
southwest winds will increase late morning, with 25-35kt gusts
expected through the afternoon. After sunset, gusts will diminish
at all terminals except CNM, where winds could continue to gust
to around 25kt through the night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge building over the area will result in hot wx for the
region today through Saturday.  The next upper trough over the NW
will rotate southward Friday and extend from the Northern Plains to
the 4 corners region on Saturday.  On Sunday this trough will spin
east across the Southern Plains pushing a cold front through the
area and bringing a break from the unseasonably hot temperatures.

Have completely clear skies across the area this morning.  May have
a few high clouds move in from the west later today but expect
mostly sunny skies for the area as under subsidence.  Looks to be
windy in the mountains today as winds aloft mix down... will go
ahead and upgrade High Wind Watch for Guadalupes to a warning... but
expect it to be a low end event.

Did not hit the high yesterday till after 6pm.  850mb temps expected
to be 30C/86F+ today along with a west/downslope surface wind will
help push temps over the century mark today.  Expect 100+ temps
today with highs near 100 Friday over much of the area.  Stayed to
the warm side of guidance... bumped up temps a little today.  Could
see readings pushing 110 degrees along portions of the Rio Grande.
Do not expect to reach record high today at MAF since it is 105
degrees set in 1990 but could tie it tomorrow since it is only 100
degrees last reached in 1991.  Wind will remain westerly on Friday.
A cold front will blow through the area early Sunday and bring a
return to highs in the 80s.

Rain chances begin Sunday and continue each day next week... may see
some along behind the front Sunday.  Will have to monitor the
development of a cut off low over Baja next week... could be a rain
producer as it moves east.

FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing westerly flow today will usher very hot, dry air into the
area, with afternoon temperatures expected to climb to around 10
degrees above normal.  RHs will drop under 15% for nearly the entire
area, with lowest RHs around 5-7% expected today along and west of
the Pecos River.  Strong winds across the Guadalupe Mountains,
Southeast New Mexico Plains, and Culberson county will result in
critical fire weather conditions in those areas, as fine fuels
remain cured and the hot, windy weather will quickly dry out any
fuels that received moisture over the last week.  A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for these areas from late this morning through
this evening. Of particular concern are the Guadalupe Mountains,
where 20ft winds could reach 30 to 40 mph, with higher gusts, and
RFTIs will range from extreme to historical. Across the Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Culberson county, 20ft winds of 25 to 35 mph
are expected, with higher gusts possible. Winds will decrease
overnight, though recovery will be poor. On Friday, the hot and dry
conditions will continue, and despite winds being slightly weaker,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to redevelop across
the same areas, with anticipated afternoon RHs around 7-10%.  A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued from late Friday morning through
Friday evening. Saturday will be another hot, dry day, however
significantly weaker winds should preclude major fire weather
concerns. A cold front Sunday will bring increased moisture and
lower temperatures for the end of the weekend into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      102  67  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        101  72 102  72 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                 103  71 100  69 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 94  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          99  65  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          95  57  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport          103  70 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                        103  70  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          106  68 102  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning until midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

44/27/44
061
FXUS64 KMAF 251129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. West-
southwest winds will increase late morning, with 25-35kt gusts
expected through the afternoon. After sunset, gusts will diminish
at all terminals except CNM, where winds could continue to gust
to around 25kt through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge building over the area will result in hot wx for the
region today through Saturday.  The next upper trough over the NW
will rotate southward Friday and extend from the Northern Plains to
the 4 corners region on Saturday.  On Sunday this trough will spin
east across the Southern Plains pushing a cold front through the
area and bringing a break from the unseasonably hot temperatures.

Have completely clear skies across the area this morning.  May have
a few high clouds move in from the west later today but expect
mostly sunny skies for the area as under subsidence.  Looks to be
windy in the mountains today as winds aloft mix down... will go
ahead and upgrade High Wind Watch for Guadalupes to a warning... but
expect it to be a low end event.

Did not hit the high yesterday till after 6pm.  850mb temps expected
to be 30C/86F+ today along with a west/downslope surface wind will
help push temps over the century mark today.  Expect 100+ temps
today with highs near 100 Friday over much of the area.  Stayed to
the warm side of guidance... bumped up temps a little today.  Could
see readings pushing 110 degrees along portions of the Rio Grande.
Do not expect to reach record high today at MAF since it is 105
degrees set in 1990 but could tie it tomorrow since it is only 100
degrees last reached in 1991.  Wind will remain westerly on Friday.
A cold front will blow through the area early Sunday and bring a
return to highs in the 80s.

Rain chances begin Sunday and continue each day next week... may see
some along behind the front Sunday.  Will have to monitor the
development of a cut off low over Baja next week... could be a rain
producer as it moves east.

FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing westerly flow today will usher very hot, dry air into the
area, with afternoon temperatures expected to climb to around 10
degrees above normal.  RHs will drop under 15% for nearly the entire
area, with lowest RHs around 5-7% expected today along and west of
the Pecos River.  Strong winds across the Guadalupe Mountains,
Southeast New Mexico Plains, and Culberson county will result in
critical fire weather conditions in those areas, as fine fuels
remain cured and the hot, windy weather will quickly dry out any
fuels that received moisture over the last week.  A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for these areas from late this morning through
this evening. Of particular concern are the Guadalupe Mountains,
where 20ft winds could reach 30 to 40 mph, with higher gusts, and
RFTIs will range from extreme to historical. Across the Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Culberson county, 20ft winds of 25 to 35 mph
are expected, with higher gusts possible. Winds will decrease
overnight, though recovery will be poor. On Friday, the hot and dry
conditions will continue, and despite winds being slightly weaker,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to redevelop across
the same areas, with anticipated afternoon RHs around 7-10%.  A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued from late Friday morning through
Friday evening. Saturday will be another hot, dry day, however
significantly weaker winds should preclude major fire weather
concerns. A cold front Sunday will bring increased moisture and
lower temperatures for the end of the weekend into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      102  67  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        101  72 102  72 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                 103  71 100  69 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 94  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          99  65  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          95  57  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport          103  70 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                        103  70  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          106  68 102  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to
     midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
823
FXUS64 KMAF 250528
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1228 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds
will increase out of the southwest by late Thursday morning, with
gusts to 25-35kt expected areawide. Gusts look to diminish after
sunset at all terminals except CNM and perhaps HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have warmed nicely today with the return of SW winds at
the surface and sunny skies. Weak upper ridging will continue to
build east over the region tonight and tomorrow with nearly zonal
flow aloft expected. The warming trend will make a huge jump
Thursday as westerly winds aloft advect very warm 850mb temps (near
30C) eastward. Along with modestly strong west, downsloping winds at
the surface, temperatures should have no problem soaring into the
upper 90s to near 100 most areas. Highs 103+ are likely for areas
along and near the Pecos and Rio Grande River valleys. Friday will
be similar though temperatures should be roughly a degree or two
cooler... The record high temperature at Midland Intl for May 25th
is 105 and at the moment it looks like this record will remain
intact however the record for May 26th could be in jeopardy as
the record for that date currently sits at 100. Windy, dry and hot
conditions could pose a fire weather problem Thursday and
Friday...please see the Fire Weather discussion below for more
details. High winds are likely to develop across the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday afternoon/evening and potentially again on
Friday. For now, will issue a High Wind Watch for this area for
Thursday.

A slight cooling (a degree or two) is still expected Saturday as the
850 mb thermal ridge edge shifts southward a bit. A cold front is
expected to bring us some relief on Sunday morning, and temperatures
look to be much more reasonable with highs in the 80s/low 90s. The
air looks to be too dry for precip to develop with the frontal
passage and most areas look to remain dry however there may be
enough moisture across SE zones for a few thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon/evening. Will see some decent moisture return beginning
Monday with east/southeast winds at the surface persisting through
midweek. Meanwhile, a series of upper waves are progged to move
overhead which may keep rain chances in the forecast and below
normal temperatures for several days.

FIRE WEATHER...
NW flow aloft will transition to zonal and even slightly SW over the
next 24 hours as a trough digs down the west coast.
Thicknesses/temps are forecast to increase substantially over today
to well-abv normal, resulting in single-digit RH most locations
during the afternoon. Forecast soundings mix to above 600mb on
average, w/30-40kt westerlies forecast, especially SE NM. This will
be coincident w/high-very high fire danger, and RFTIs extreme-
historical. Although ERC is below normal, increased wind fields
support Red Flag criteria being easily met Thu afternoon. Therefore,
we`ll go ahead and issue a warning for SE NM and Van Horn/Hwy 54
corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69 101  70 100 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       67  98  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         71 102  72 100 /   0   0  10  10
Fort Stockton                  71 100  69  99 /   0   0  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 66  88  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          64  95  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  93  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           69 100  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         69  99  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           68 100  65  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM MDT Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to
     midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
031
FXUS64 KMAF 242305
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
605 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Light winds tonight will turn gusty out of the SW Thursday
afternoon. Gusts could approach 40 kts at KCNM. Otherwise expect
VFR conditions.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 244 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures have warmed nicely today with the return of SW winds at
the surface and sunny skies. Weak upper ridging will continue to
build east over the region tonight and tomorrow with nearly zonal
flow aloft expected. The warming trend will make a huge jump
Thursday as westerly winds aloft advect very warm 850mb temps (near
30C) eastward. Along with modestly strong west, downsloping winds at
the surface, temperatures should have no problem soaring into the
upper 90s to near 100 most areas. Highs 103+ are likely for areas
along and near the Pecos and Rio Grande River valleys. Friday will
be similar though temperatures should be roughly a degree or two
cooler... The record high temperature at Midland Intl for May 25th
is 105 and at the moment it looks like this record will remain
intact however the record for May 26th could be in jeopardy as
the record for that date currently sits at 100. Windy, dry and hot
conditions could pose a fire weather problem Thursday and
Friday...please see the Fire Weather discussion below for more
details. High winds are likely to develop across the Guadalupe
Mountains Thursday afternoon/evening and potentially again on
Friday. For now, will issue a High Wind Watch for this area for
Thursday.

A slight cooling (a degree or two) is still expected Saturday as the
850 mb thermal ridge edge shifts southward a bit. A cold front is
expected to bring us some relief on Sunday morning, and temperatures
look to be much more reasonable with highs in the 80s/low 90s. The
air looks to be too dry for precip to develop with the frontal
passage and most areas look to remain dry however there may be
enough moisture across SE zones for a few thunderstorms Sunday
afternoon/evening. Will see some decent moisture return beginning
Monday with east/southeast winds at the surface persisting through
midweek. Meanwhile, a series of upper waves are progged to move
overhead which may keep rain chances in the forecast and below
normal temperatures for several days.

FIRE WEATHER...
NW flow aloft will transition to zonal and even slightly SW over the
next 24 hours as a trough digs down the west coast.
Thicknesses/temps are forecast to increase substantially over today
to well-abv normal, resulting in single-digit RH most locations
during the afternoon. Forecast soundings mix to above 600mb on
average, w/30-40kt westerlies forecast, especially SE NM. This will
be coincident w/high-very high fire danger, and RFTIs extreme-
historical. Although ERC is below normal, increased wind fields
support Red Flag criteria being easily met Thu afternoon. Therefore,
we`ll go ahead and issue a warning for SE NM and Van Horn/Hwy 54
corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     64 102  69 101 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       62 101  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62 101  71 102 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  68 103  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  92  66  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  98  64  95 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  94  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           65 102  69 100 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         65 102  69  99 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           62 104  68 100 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM MDT Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ Thursday to midnight
     CDT /11 PM MDT/ Thursday night for Guadalupe Mountains-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/29
081
FXUS64 KMAF 241609
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1109 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A rather trite forecast for the next 24 hours, as West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico sit under NW flow aloft on the backside of an
upper trough. VFR conditions will prevail w/a few high clouds,
w/gusty westerly flow developing late morning Thu. Despite
expected warmer wx, convective temps will remain too high for cu
development.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 637 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail through the forecast
period. Winds will increase out of the southwest this afternoon,
though speeds should generally remain around 12kt or less. Winds
will back to the south/southeast tonight at MAF/INK/PEQ/FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
As upper trough leaves the plains look for high pressure ridge to
build in from the west.  This will result in warmer and drier
conditions through the end of the week. The next upper trough will
move over the Central plains late Saturday/Sunday with return of
pops.  Will also have to watch the possibility of a cut off low
forming over Baja in the extended.

Its mostly clear this morning with a few clouds over SE NM and the
Permian Basin... should have a chilly start to the day with reading
sin the 40s and 50s.  After cool post frontal conditions Tuesday
will return to near normal temperatures today with highs in the 80s
and 90s as a S/SW wind kicks in.  Could see borderline high wind
conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains Thursday and Friday but too
marginal to issue a watch.

As the upper ridge moves over the region expect to get the first 100
degree readings of the year for much of W TX and SE NM.  Should
see 850mb temps of 30C/86F over Midland Thursday... along with a
brisk west wind across the region that will push up temps. Look
for the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys to be the hottest... with
readings of 105+ along the Rio Grande by Thursday. Could see the
2nd 100 degree readings on Friday which would tie a daily record
high at MAF. It should be a little cooler Saturday before a cold
front blows through early Sunday bringing a return to highs in the
80s for most of the area. Near normal readings for early next
week.

Not much rain chances over the next several days but precip chances
start to increase the first of next week as shortwaves may move down
into the area on NW flow.

FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains
Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.  A significant
warming and drying trend will begin areawide today, and by Thursday
given increasing dry west-southwesterly flow at the surface and
aloft, temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal. Lowest
RHs around 5 percent are expected along and west of the Pecos River,
particularly across the higher terrain. Concurrently, strong
westerly winds will develop across the Guadalupe Mountains, with
20ft winds expected to range from 25 to 35 mph, with higher gusts.
Critical fire weather conditions look to continue Friday, perhaps
expanding across the Southeast New Mexico Plains as fuels dry out
and winds increase across that area.  Very dry conditions are
expected again Saturday, though winds will be lighter, thus concerns
may be alleviated somewhat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  64 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       91  61 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  64 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  91  67 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 86  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          86  60  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          85  51  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           87  65 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         88  65 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           91  62 104  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/27/44
725
FXUS64 KMAF 241137
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
637 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail through the forecast
period. Winds will increase out of the southwest this afternoon,
though speeds should generally remain around 12kt or less. Winds
will back to the south/southeast tonight at MAF/INK/PEQ/FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
As upper trough leaves the plains look for high pressure ridge to
build in from the west.  This will result in warmer and drier
conditions through the end of the week. The next upper trough will
move over the Central plains late Saturday/Sunday with return of
pops.  Will also have to watch the possibility of a cut off low
forming over Baja in the extended.

Its mostly clear this morning with a few clouds over SE NM and the
Permian Basin... should have a chilly start to the day with reading
sin the 40s and 50s.  After cool post frontal conditions Tuesday
will return to near normal temperatures today with highs in the 80s
and 90s as a S/SW wind kicks in.  Could see borderline high wind
conditions in the Guadalupe Mountains Thursday and Friday but too
marginal to issue a watch.

As the upper ridge moves over the region expect to get the first 100
degree readings of the year for much of W TX and SE NM.  Should
see 850mb temps of 30C/86F over Midland Thursday... along with a
brisk west wind across the region that will push up temps. Look
for the Pecos and Rio Grande valleys to be the hottest... with
readings of 105+ along the Rio Grande by Thursday. Could see the
2nd 100 degree readings on Friday which would tie a daily record
high at MAF. It should be a little cooler Saturday before a cold
front blows through early Sunday bringing a return to highs in the
80s for most of the area. Near normal readings for early next
week.

Not much rain chances over the next several days but precip chances
start to increase the first of next week as shortwaves may move down
into the area on NW flow.

FIRE WEATHER...
A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for the Guadalupe Mountains
Thursday afternoon into early Thursday evening.  A significant
warming and drying trend will begin areawide today, and by Thursday
given increasing dry west-southwesterly flow at the surface and
aloft, temperatures will be around 10 degrees above normal. Lowest
RHs around 5 percent are expected along and west of the Pecos River,
particularly across the higher terrain. Concurrently, strong
westerly winds will develop across the Guadalupe Mountains, with
20ft winds expected to range from 25 to 35 mph, with higher gusts.
Critical fire weather conditions look to continue Friday, perhaps
expanding across the Southeast New Mexico Plains as fuels dry out
and winds increase across that area.  Very dry conditions are
expected again Saturday, though winds will be lighter, thus concerns
may be alleviated somewhat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  64 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       91  61 101  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         90  64 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  91  67 102  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 86  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          86  60  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          85  51  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           87  65 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         88  65 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           91  62 104  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
195
FXUS64 KMAF 240509
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1209 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with clear skies will prevail through the forecast
period. Light and variable winds overnight will become
southwesterly on Wednesday, with speeds generally around 12kt or
less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

The cold front that moved through the region this morning has
successfully resulted in very unseasonably cool temperatures and
increased cloud cover for the day. As of 2:30pm CDT, most
locations were still in the 60s. The rain did not end up
developing like we previously thought it would, however areas
across the northeast Permian Basin may see some light rain
through the afternoon. Otherwise, most areas will remain dry for
the remainder of today. Tonight, expect a bit of drying to occur
as a surface ridge moves over the area. Skies should quickly clear
out this evening and overnight temperatures in the upper 40s to
low 50s will be common across the region.

Temperatures will begin to warm Wednesday as upper ridging builds
east, advecting very warm 850mb temps eastward. Wednesday
temperatures are still expected to be somewhat enjoyable with highs
in the 80s to near 90, but that quickly changes Thursday. 850mb
temps near 30 degrees C over the region and modestly strong west,
downsloping winds at the surface suggest high temperatures will
increase to the upper 90s to near 100 most areas. Highs exceeding
100 is likely for areas along and near the Pecos and Rio Grande
River valleys. The record high temperature at Midland Intl for May
25th is 105 and at the moment it looks like this record will remain
however the record for May 26th could be in jeopardy as the
record for that date is only 100. Windy, dry and hot conditions
could pose a fire weather problem Thursday and Friday...please see
the Fire Weather discussion below for more details.

Saturday may be a few degrees cooler for most areas as the upper
ridge and 850 mb thermal ridge get pushed to the south a bit. Areas
across Big Bend and Rio Grande will still see triple digit heat.
Forecast models bring a cold front through the region Sunday
morning, dropping temperatures back to near normal, in the 80s to
low 90s. The air looks to be too dry for widespread precip to
develop with the frontal passage however we may have enough moisture
across SE zones for a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.
Will continue to see some decent moisture return on Monday with
east/southeast winds at the surface persisting through Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a series of upper waves are progged progged to move
overhead which may keep rain chances in the forecast Monday through
mid week along with near or below normal temperatures during this
time.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns will increase quickly across parts of the Trans
Pecos and SE NM Thur extending into the weekend. Across the SE NM
Plains a w wind of 20-25 mph and min RHs near 10 pct are
expected. Meanwhile temps will be around 10 degrees above normal.
There was rain across parts of SE NM yesterday, but fine fuels
will have time to dry out by Thur and certainly Fri. ERC levels
from SWCC keeps ERCs within the 50th percentile across the GDP
Mtns and less than 50th percentile across the SE NM. For we will
issue a watch for the GDP Mtns. By Fri/Sat drying could be more
than enough for a watch, if in SE NM and a continuation GDP Mtns.
Elsewhere unseasonably heat and dryness are a concern, but
Brewster Co should be out of the mix for a few days with recent
widespread heavy rain there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     86  63 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       91  62 100  65 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         87  62 100  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  90  67 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 85  65  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          86  59  99  63 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          86  50  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           86  63 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         87  63 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           90  60 103  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
412
FXUS64 KMAF 232311
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
611 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

North winds will decrease after 24/00Z with VFR conditions
prevailing tonight and Wednesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 233 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

The cold front that moved through the region this morning has
successfully resulted in very unseasonably cool temperatures and
increased cloud cover for the day. As of 2:30pm CDT, most
locations were still in the 60s. The rain did not end up
developing like we previously thought it would, however areas
across the northeast Permian Basin may see some light rain
through the afternoon. Otherwise, most areas will remain dry for
the remainder of today. Tonight, expect a bit of drying to occur
as a surface ridge moves over the area. Skies should quickly clear
out this evening and overnight temperatures in the upper 40s to
low 50s will be common across the region.

Temperatures will begin to warm Wednesday as upper ridging builds
east, advecting very warm 850mb temps eastward. Wednesday
temperatures are still expected to be somewhat enjoyable with highs
in the 80s to near 90, but that quickly changes Thursday. 850mb
temps near 30 degrees C over the region and modestly strong west,
downsloping winds at the surface suggest high temperatures will
increase to the upper 90s to near 100 most areas. Highs exceeding
100 is likely for areas along and near the Pecos and Rio Grande
River valleys. The record high temperature at Midland Intl for May
25th is 105 and at the moment it looks like this record will remain
however the record for May 26th could be in jeopardy as the
record for that date is only 100. Windy, dry and hot conditions
could pose a fire weather problem Thursday and Friday...please see
the Fire Weather discussion below for more details.

Saturday may be a few degrees cooler for most areas as the upper
ridge and 850 mb thermal ridge get pushed to the south a bit. Areas
across Big Bend and Rio Grande will still see triple digit heat.
Forecast models bring a cold front through the region Sunday
morning, dropping temperatures back to near normal, in the 80s to
low 90s. The air looks to be too dry for widespread precip to
develop with the frontal passage however we may have enough moisture
across SE zones for a few thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.
Will continue to see some decent moisture return on Monday with
east/southeast winds at the surface persisting through Tuesday.
Meanwhile, a series of upper waves are progged progged to move
overhead which may keep rain chances in the forecast Monday through
mid week along with near or below normal temperatures during this
time.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire wx concerns will increase quickly across parts of the Trans
Pecos and SE NM Thur extending into the weekend. Across the SE NM
Plains a w wind of 20-25 mph and min RHs near 10 pct are
expected. Meanwhile temps will be around 10 degrees above normal.
There was rain across parts of SE NM yesterday, but fine fuels
will have time to dry out by Thur and certainly Fri. ERC levels
from SWCC keeps ERCs within the 50th percentile across the GDP
Mtns and less than 50th percentile across the SE NM. For we will
issue a watch for the GDP Mtns. By Fri/Sat drying could be more
than enough for a watch, if in SE NM and a continuation GDP Mtns.
Elsewhere unseasonably heat and dryness are a concern, but
Brewster Co should be out of the mix for a few days with recent
widespread heavy rain there.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  86  63 101 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       51  91  62 100 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         57  87  62 100 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  90  67 101 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 53  85  65  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          48  86  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          44  86  50  94 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  86  63 101 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  87  63 101 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  90  60 103 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

49/27
742
FXUS64 KMAF 231722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Radar shows scattered -SHRA east of MAF with others n around the
LBB area. These -SHRA are within NW flow and few -SHRA are
possible in the MAF/HOB areas before 21Z. Otherwise CIGS have
lifted to above MVFR, except at FST. Clouds will continue to lift
and by early evening they should all mostly be dissipated with
VFR wx expected overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  87  64  99 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  92  59  99 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         55  90  62  98 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  89  66 100 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  86  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          47  85  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          43  87  49  93 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  86  63  99 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  86  63  99 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           50  90  57 101 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
371
FXUS64 KMAF 231130
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
630 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings are deteriorating this morning as a cold front begins to
make its way into the area. MVFR ceilings, and perhaps IFR, are
expected areawide through the morning, with gradual improvement to
VFR expected after 19Z. While showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
could affect area terminals today, high-res guidance has backed
off, and given radar trends, have removed -RA mention and will
monitor and amend as needed. Otherwise, gusty north/northeast
winds are expected in the wake of the front, with gusts
diminishing by this evening. Winds will quickly return to the
south/southwest overnight tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current obs are showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are developing to our north behind a cold front
moving into the Permian Basin, and models are in good agreement
that this area of rainfall will spread south into our CWA later
this morning. Rainfall amounts will likely be light to moderate
but any additional accumulations will be welcome. Stability is
increasing behind the cold front so no severe storms are expected.
Clouds and rain will keep highs well below normal today but enjoy
the cool weather while you can as an upper ridge approaches and
temps warm tomorrow, then become quite hot Thursday with highs
approaching or exceeding 100 degrees in much of West Texas and
southeastern New Mexico. The ridge axis shifts to our east on
Friday allowing for a slight cooling of a couple of degrees but it
will still be hot to end the week.

An upper low moving into the Northern Plains will send a cold
front our way Sunday bringing a relief to the hot temperatures
with highs dropping back to near or even slightly below normal
early next week. Some models are showing an upper disturbance
moving east along the U.S./Mexico border will encounter return
flow moisture and give us our next decent rain chances beginning
Monday.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  50  87  64 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       71  50  92  59 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  55  90  62 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  68  52  89  66 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 64  51  86  65 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          64  47  85  58 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          72  43  87  49 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           70  52  86  63 /  40  10   0   0
Odessa                         69  53  86  63 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                           72  50  90  57 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
234
FXUS64 KMAF 230536
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1236 AM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated for the early cancellation of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #
256 and for the 06Z aviation discussion, which can be found below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms continue to move east out of the area this evening,
and without expectation of additional development to the west, the
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been cancelled. Additional storms
are possible late tonight/early Tuesday morning as a cold front
pushes into the area, however, these storms are not expected to be
severe.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions have returned as showers and thunderstorms
have moved to the east. However, a cold front will move into the
area late tonight, which could bring another round of
precipitation to area terminals. While thunderstorms will be
possible with the front, probability is too low to include mention
at this time, thus have gone with TEMPO -RA mention and will
monitor for -TSRA and amend as needed. In the wake of the front,
winds will shift to the north and become gusty, and MVFR
conditions will return areawide. Periods of IFR ceilings are
possible through the morning, with a gradual improvement to VFR
expected areawide after 04/19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1034 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

UPDATE...

Update to cancel most of Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 256.

DISCUSSION...

A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward over the
eastern Permian Basin, and expect the storms could move out of the
area around 23/06Z.  Until then, there appears to be enough
instability for a few of these storms to produce strong winds or
hail.  Therefore, will leave the eastern most counties in Severe
Thunderstorm Watch number 256, but trim the western counties
where storms have already past through, and there is little
expectation of redevelopment.  A cold front will move into the
area late tonight with more showers and storms possible along and
behind it.  Do not think there will be any more severe storms at
that time.  An update will follow shortly for these changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect thunderstorms to become more widespread through 23/00Z, so have
included a mention of TSRA in all area terminals.  Gusty and
variable winds could accompany any of the storms, in addition to
hail.  Think thunderstorms could be east of all area terminals by
23/04Z too.  A cold front will move south into the area late
tonight with gusty north winds behind it.  Ceilings will lower to
MVFR behind the front for a few hours, and could dip to IFR.
Expect VFR conditions areawide after 23/17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM
tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw
across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W
TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. Lift will be
modulated by mid level LR`s 7h-5h of 8-8.5 LR`s and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 J/KG result. A low level thermal/moisture gradient will
develop across ern NM too. This is a good pattern for tstms (MCS)
to develop in, bulk shear is forecast to be over 50kts and severe
storms are expected. 0-1km and 0-3km SRH do depict 300 m2/s2 or so
along the outflow, but LCLs are high, thus a non-zero probability
of a tornado. NAM12 continues to have the QPF max across the e
and GFS a little farther w. Confidence is high that severe storms
will come out somewhere between INK-SNK. There could even be 2
separate areas of storms, one that initiates in far SE NM or W PB
and another off to the nw initiating in ern NM or the wrn S Plain.
The forecast already has high PoPs in and will probably not make
too much change. Recent heavy rainfall across
Mitchell/Scurry/Howard Counties does raise concern for at least
localized flash flooding and responses along Colorado River and
tributaries. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in
agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be
noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely
break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a
strong trend from the lower left to upper right. 85h temps 31C and
downslope wind will easily push temps into the U90s-L100s.
Dryline will probably hang up across far srn CWFA, may be storm in
Terrell Co.. A little cooler but still hot Fri-Sat with a
possible front on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  52  85  62 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       74  51  91  60 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         78  57  86  61 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  72  54  89  66 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 68  52  85  64 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          69  48  84  58 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                          75  48  88  55 /  20  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           72  53  85  62 /  40  10   0   0
Odessa                         71  53  85  63 /  40  10   0   0
Wink                           74  52  89  60 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
663
FXUS64 KMAF 230334
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1034 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel most of Severe Thunderstorm Watch # 256.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A line of thunderstorms continues to move eastward over the
eastern Permian Basin, and expect the storms could move out of the
area around 23/06Z.  Until then, there appears to be enough
instability for a few of these storms to produce strong winds or
hail.  Therefore, will leave the eastern most counties in Severe
Thunderstorm Watch number 256, but trim the western counties
where storms have already past through, and there is little
expectation of redevelopment.  A cold front will move into the
area late tonight with more showers and storms possible along and
behind it.  Do not think there will be any more severe storms at
that time.  An update will follow shortly for these changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 548 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Expect thunderstorms to become more widespread through 23/00Z, so have
included a mention of TSRA in all area terminals.  Gusty and
variable winds could accompany any of the storms, in addition to
hail.  Think thunderstorms could be east of all area terminals by
23/04Z too.  A cold front will move south into the area late
tonight with gusty north winds behind it.  Ceilings will lower to
MVFR behind the front for a few hours, and could dip to IFR.
Expect VFR conditions areawide after 23/17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM
tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw
across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W
TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. Lift will be
modulated by mid level LR`s 7h-5h of 8-8.5 LR`s and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 J/KG result. A low level thermal/moisture gradient will
develop across ern NM too. This is a good pattern for tstms (MCS)
to develop in, bulk shear is forecast to be over 50kts and severe
storms are expected. 0-1km and 0-3km SRH do depict 300 m2/s2 or so
along the outflow, but LCLs are high, thus a non-zero probability
of a tornado. NAM12 continues to have the QPF max across the e
and GFS a little farther w. Confidence is high that severe storms
will come out somewhere between INK-SNK. There could even be 2
separate areas of storms, one that initiates in far SE NM or W PB
and another off to the nw initiating in ern NM or the wrn S Plain.
The forecast already has high PoPs in and will probably not make
too much change. Recent heavy rainfall across
Mitchell/Scurry/Howard Counties does raise concern for at least
localized flash flooding and responses along Colorado River and
tributaries. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in
agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be
noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely
break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a
strong trend from the lower left to upper right. 85h temps 31C and
downslope wind will easily push temps into the U90s-L100s.
Dryline will probably hang up across far srn CWFA, may be storm in
Terrell Co.. A little cooler but still hot Fri-Sat with a
possible front on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  72  52  85 /  50  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       55  74  51  91 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         64  78  57  86 /  30  40  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  72  54  89 /  30  40  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  68  52  85 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          52  69  48  84 /  40  20  10   0
Marfa                          53  75  48  88 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  72  53  85 /  50  40  10   0
Odessa                         56  71  53  85 /  50  40  10   0
Wink                           58  74  52  89 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99
306
FXUS64 KMAF 222248
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
548 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect thunderstorms to become more widespread through 23/00Z, so have
included a mention of TSRA in all area terminals.  Gusty and
variable winds could accompany any of the storms, in addition to
hail.  Think thunderstorms could be east of all area terminals by
23/04Z too.  A cold front will move south into the area late
tonight with gusty north winds behind it.  Ceilings will lower to
MVFR behind the front for a few hours, and could dip to IFR.
Expect VFR conditions areawide after 23/17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 155 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

Water vapor depicts will a defined a shrtwv trof INVOF nrn NM
tracking se within NW flow aloft with trof axis extending sw
across NM. As lift assocd with shrtwv trof moves se into ern NM/W
TX it will encounter surface dwpnts around 55. Lift will be
modulated by mid level LR`s 7h-5h of 8-8.5 LR`s and MLCAPES of
1000-1500 J/KG result. A low level thermal/moisture gradient will
develop across ern NM too. This is a good pattern for tstms (MCS)
to develop in, bulk shear is forecast to be over 50kts and severe
storms are expected. 0-1km and 0-3km SRH do depict 300 m2/s2 or so
along the outflow, but LCLs are high, thus a non-zero probability
of a tornado. NAM12 continues to have the QPF max across the e
and GFS a little farther w. Confidence is high that severe storms
will come out somewhere between INK-SNK. There could even be 2
separate areas of storms, one that initiates in far SE NM or W PB
and another off to the nw initiating in ern NM or the wrn S Plain.
The forecast already has high PoPs in and will probably not make
too much change. Recent heavy rainfall across
Mitchell/Scurry/Howard Counties does raise concern for at least
localized flash flooding and responses along Colorado River and
tributaries. A cold front will follow Tue AM and models are in
agreement that post-frontal precip will develop. It will be
noticeably cooler Tue in wake of the front, but clouds will likely
break out late. Thereafter a modest warm-up on Wed followed by a
strong trend from the lower left to upper right. 85h temps 31C and
downslope wind will easily push temps into the U90s-L100s.
Dryline will probably hang up across far srn CWFA, may be storm in
Terrell Co.. A little cooler but still hot Fri-Sat with a
possible front on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     57  72  52  85 /  80  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       55  74  51  91 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                         64  78  57  86 /  30  40  10   0
Fort Stockton                  59  72  54  89 /  50  40  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 54  68  52  85 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          52  69  48  84 /  60  20  10   0
Marfa                          53  75  48  88 /  30  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           56  72  53  85 /  70  40  10   0
Odessa                         56  71  53  85 /  70  40  10   0
Wink                           58  74  52  89 /  50  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
461
FXUS64 KMAF 221722
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1222 PM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

Terminals will return to VFR conditions over the next hour or so as
low clouds continue to erode. Still expecting thunderstorm
activity to affect the region this afternoon, evening and
potentially overnight. Have included TEMPO TS at all terminals at
some point this afternoon/evening however will continue to monitor
timing and make adjustment as needed. Brief periods of MVFR can
be expected with any thunderstorm as heavy rain lower visibility.
Also, expect gusty and erratic winds with storms that move
overhead. A cold front is expected to move through Tuesday
morning, resulting in gusty north winds through mid day. Could
potentially have showers, thunderstorms and MVFR conditions along
with the front but for now just mentioned low cigs.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar shows a little convection north of Lea County this
morning, but much more is expected later today as an upper level
trough dives southeast out of the Rockies. Instability and shear
are enough that some storms will be severe with the greatest
threat area being the northern and eastern Permian Basin. This
activity will move east out of the area this evening before the
trough pushes a cold front south later tonight with more rainfall
expected along and behind this boundary.

Clouds and rain kept the high in Midland at an astonishing 71
degrees yesterday, and while it should be warmer today we are
still expecting highs to be well below normal again. Cold air
advection Tuesday will again keep highs in the 60s and 70s
everywhere except in the Big Bend. Enjoy this cool weather while
you can as a dampened west coast ridge moves into the Central
Plains Thursday, increasing westerly flow and causing
temperatures to soar to their highest levels of the year taking us
from one extreme to the other. Temps will diminish Friday, but
only by a couple of degrees and still above normal. The westerly
flow will also end rain chances through the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  60  74  53 /  30  80  50  10
Carlsbad                       85  57  74  50 /  50  30  20   0
Dryden                         82  66  81  56 /  20  30  40  10
Fort Stockton                  85  58  72  54 /  30  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 83  56  67  52 /  30  10  10   0
Hobbs                          75  51  67  47 /  50  60  30  10
Marfa                          83  50  74  43 /  30  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           77  58  72  52 /  30  70  40  10
Odessa                         77  57  72  53 /  30  70  40  10
Wink                           84  58  72  52 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
412
FXUS64 KMAF 221129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Look for mainly IFR ceilings this morning at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. Some fog is also possible but
extensive low clouds should help limit its occurrence. Expect VFR
conditions to develop at the terminals around 22/18z. A strong
upper level disturbance will move into southeast New Mexico and
west Texas late this afternoon and this evening, bringing with it
either prob30 or tempo MVFR conditions in thunderstorms with brief
gusty winds.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar shows a little convection north of Lea County this
morning, but much more is expected later today as an upper level
trough dives southeast out of the Rockies. Instability and shear
are enough that some storms will be severe with the greatest
threat area being the northern and eastern Permian Basin. This
activity will move east out of the area this evening before the
trough pushes a cold front south later tonight with more rainfall
expected along and behind this boundary.

Clouds and rain kept the high in Midland at an astonishing 71
degrees yesterday, and while it should be warmer today we are
still expecting highs to be well below normal again. Cold air
advection Tuesday will again keep highs in the 60s and 70s
everywhere except in the Big Bend. Enjoy this cool weather while
you can as a dampened west coast ridge moves into the Central
Plains Thursday, increasing westerly flow and causing
temperatures to soar to their highest levels of the year taking us
from one extreme to the other. Temps will diminish Friday, but
only by a couple of degrees and still above normal. The westerly
flow will also end rain chances through the weekend.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     76  60  74  53 /  30  80  50  10
Carlsbad                       85  57  74  50 /  50  30  20   0
Dryden                         82  66  81  56 /  20  30  40  10
Fort Stockton                  85  58  72  54 /  30  50  40  10
Guadalupe Pass                 83  56  67  52 /  30  10  10   0
Hobbs                          75  51  67  47 /  50  60  30  10
Marfa                          83  50  74  43 /  30  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           77  58  72  52 /  30  70  40  10
Odessa                         77  57  72  53 /  30  70  40  10
Wink                           84  58  72  52 /  30  50  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12
499
FXUS64 KMAF 220534
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT Mon May 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Look for MVFR ceilings to develop overnight and then deteriorate
to IFR late tonight at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico
terminals. Some fog is also possible but extensive low clouds
should help limit its occurrence. Expect VFR conditions to
develop at the terminals by 22/18z. A strong upper level
disturbance will move into southeast New Mexico and west Texas
near 23/00z, bringing with it the chance for MVFR tsra. For now
will place prob30 groups at KCNM, KHOB, and KFST for tsra late
this afternoon and this evening.

12



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 601 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will develop into wester portions of the forecast
area, but probability is too low to include any mention at KCNM
and KPEQ.  Expect MVFR ceilings to form and spread northwestward
over the area later tonight, followed by IFR ceilings, if not
lower, late tonight.  Have kept fog mention to a minimum
considering the extent of the expected MVFR/IFR cloud deck.
Think ceilings will improve from west to east from 22/14Z after.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

Shrtwv trof moving across nrn MX along with steep LR/s and ample
low level moisture have combined to result in pockets of heavy
rain across the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos (2.14" at Chisos
Basin). These storms are tracking e and area of heaviest rain
confined to the Lower Trans Pecos. Additional development is
possible further w into the Big Bend area, but strongest storms
will likely be farther e. Local heavy rain/a few severe storms
will be possible remainder of the afternoon across parts of the
Trans Pecos. Farther n into the PB a smaller, but at times severe,
cluster of storm is moving n. Most recent radar indicate some
weakening. These storms have good chance to moves into
Andrews/Martin Counties?We have made an adjustment to PoPs and wx
for this PM to account for local heavy rain/severe tstms. By late
afternoon Mon/Mon evening steep mid level LR/s within NW flow and
surface Td in M50s in alignment with daytime heating along with
an identifiable shrtwv trof will be a good set-up for tstms across
PB. Initially tstms will be favored to develop in NE-E NM where
NAM12 indicates highest CAPES will be co-located with an area of
weak CINH. NAM12 targets the N-NE CWFA after 03Z while GFS is
farther w and earlier. Tstms are likely to be severe with MLCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG and 0-6km bulk shear of 40kts so large hail is
favored, NAM12 insists on strong outflow wind too. A cold front
will quickly re-enforce outflow winds and brief post-frontal
precip will be possible mainly in the morning across the PB and
then Lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend region in the afternoon. High/low
temps on Tue are trending lower in the latest MOS #`s, highs in
the U60s-L70s are possible across the PB if clouds hold in. The
warm-up over the following days will be rapid and the cool wx on
Tue will seem like a distant memory. By Thur 85h temps over 30C
and downslope winds will push high temps into the U90s and L100s.
85h temps fall back into the U20C range Fri, but still mostly hot
Memorial Day weekend Fri-Sun.

HYDROLOGY...

Rio Grande at Castolon/Johnson Ranch responded to heavy rains
there this morning, flood warning at Castolon. Terlingua creek
also rose rapidly. Levels will fall rapidly in absence of
additional heavy rain.

Recent rains have done some good to local lakes. Champion Creek
south of Colorado City has risen 6 ft, and is at 50% capacity
which highest level since about 1998. Moss Creek Lake in Howard
County rose 3 ft and Lake Colorado City has risen about 3 ft to
48% capacity. Elsewhere O.H. Ivie is at 24.6% capacity and Lake
J.B. Thomas is at 59% capacity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     79  58  72  53 /  30  60  40  10
Carlsbad                       85  57  75  53 /  30  20  20  10
Dryden                         82  64  80  58 /  30  30  30  10
Fort Stockton                  85  61  74  55 /  20  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 82  55  70  52 /  20  20  10  10
Hobbs                          80  54  71  50 /  40  40  20  10
Marfa                          84  55  76  49 /  30  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           81  57  73  54 /  30  50  40  10
Odessa                         81  57  72  54 /  20  50  40  10
Wink                           84  59  75  54 /  20  40  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12
437
FXUS64 KMAF 212301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Thunderstorms will develop into wester portions of the forecast
area, but probability is too low to include any mention at KCNM
and KPEQ.  Expect MVFR ceilings to form and spread northwestward
over the area later tonight, followed by IFR ceilings, if not
lower, late tonight.  Have kept fog mention to a minimum
considering the extent of the expected MVFR/IFR cloud deck.
Think ceilings will improve from west to east from 22/14Z after.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 140 PM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

Shrtwv trof moving across nrn MX along with steep LR/s and ample
low level moisture have combined to result in pockets of heavy
rain across the Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos (2.14" at Chisos
Basin). These storms are tracking e and area of heaviest rain
confined to the Lower Trans Pecos. Additional development is
possible further w into the Big Bend area, but strongest storms
will likely be farther e. Local heavy rain/a few severe storms
will be possible remainder of the afternoon across parts of the
Trans Pecos. Farther n into the PB a smaller, but at times severe,
cluster of storm is moving n. Most recent radar indicate some
weakening. These storms have good chance to moves into
Andrews/Martin Counties?We have made an adjustment to PoPs and wx
for this PM to account for local heavy rain/severe tstms. By late
afternoon Mon/Mon evening steep mid level LR/s within NW flow and
surface Td in M50s in alignment with daytime heating along with
an identifiable shrtwv trof will be a good set-up for tstms across
PB. Initially tstms will be favored to develop in NE-E NM where
NAM12 indicates highest CAPES will be co-located with an area of
weak CINH. NAM12 targets the N-NE CWFA after 03Z while GFS is
farther w and earlier. Tstms are likely to be severe with MLCAPES
1000-1500 J/KG and 0-6km bulk shear of 40kts so large hail is
favored, NAM12 insists on strong outflow wind too. A cold front
will quickly re-enforce outflow winds and brief post-frontal
precip will be possible mainly in the morning across the PB and
then Lower Trans Pecos/Big Bend region in the afternoon. High/low
temps on Tue are trending lower in the latest MOS #`s, highs in
the U60s-L70s are possible across the PB if clouds hold in. The
warm-up over the following days will be rapid and the cool wx on
Tue will seem like a distant memory. By Thur 85h temps over 30C
and downslope winds will push high temps into the U90s and L100s.
85h temps fall back into the U20C range Fri, but still mostly hot
Memorial Day weekend Fri-Sun.

HYDROLOGY...

Rio Grande at Castolon/Johnson Ranch responded to heavy rains
there this morning, flood warning at Castolon. Terlingua creek
also rose rapidly. Levels will fall rapidly in absence of
additional heavy rain.

Recent rains have done some good to local lakes. Champion Creek
south of Colorado City has risen 6 ft, and is at 50% capacity
which highest level since about 1998. Moss Creek Lake in Howard
County rose 3 ft and Lake Colorado City has risen about 3 ft to
48% capacity. Elsewhere O.H. Ivie is at 24.6% capacity and Lake
J.B. Thomas is at 59% capacity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     60  79  58  72 /  30  30  60  40
Carlsbad                       60  85  57  75 /  30  30  20  20
Dryden                         64  82  64  80 /  50  30  30  30
Fort Stockton                  62  85  61  74 /  30  20  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 56  82  55  70 /  30  20  20  10
Hobbs                          58  80  54  71 /  20  40  40  20
Marfa                          54  84  55  76 /  30  30  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           60  81  57  73 /  30  30  50  40
Odessa                         60  81  57  72 /  30  20  50  40
Wink                           61  84  59  75 /  20  20  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
544
FXUS64 KMAF 211623
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to affect portions of the area
early this afternoon with -TS near FST currently. This is the only
site with mention of TSRA through this afternoon but will continue
to monitor radar trends and amend if needed. VFR to MVFR cigs should
persist through this evening then flight conditions expected to
deteriorate to IFR, if not lower. Otherwise, easterly winds will
prevail today with a few gusts through the evening hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing showers moving up from the southeast
into the Permian Basin this morning. This activity, though
continuing to spread northwest, should remain fairly weak and
isolated. The greatest rainfall potential for today will be in the
Big Bend where models are showing an upper disturbance moving out
of Mexico potentially producing heavy rainfall from Presidio to
Sanderson. This area has not seen much rain lately and can take
quite a bit of rain, but locally heavy downpours could still
create some flash flooding problems and this will be the greatest
weather threat for today.

Tomorrow a ridge builds over the west coast and northwesterly flow
over the Rockies will send another disturbance into the area.
Shear and instability will be enough to support severe
thunderstorms with large hail in discrete supercells, and also a
strong wind threat should the activity form an MCS. See more
details in the SWODY2 from SPC.

The trough will send a cold front into the CWA early Tuesday,
pushing the rain east but keeping below normal temps through
midweek. Things change Thursday when the ridge over the western
U.S. flattens and moves east with westerly flow bringing much
warmer temperatures. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 90s to
100s with weaker flow Friday and Saturday only providing a couple
of degrees of relief.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  60  82  59 /  30  30  30  50
Carlsbad                       78  59  88  57 /  20  30  30  30
Dryden                         76  64  86  64 /  70  50  30  30
Fort Stockton                  71  60  84  60 /  50  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  82  55 /  30  30  30  20
Hobbs                          76  57  79  54 /  20  30  30  50
Marfa                          74  54  84  54 /  50  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           76  60  81  58 /  40  30  30  50
Odessa                         76  60  82  58 /  40  30  30  50
Wink                           78  60  86  58 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49
109
FXUS64 KMAF 211102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings will become prevailing MVFR ceilings at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals this morning and continue
through the TAF period. A strong upper level disturbance will kick
off showers and thunderstorms across mainly west Texas today
through early this evening. Confidence was high enough to include
a PROB30 group for MVFR showers and thunderstorms at KMAF, KINK,
and KPEQ with Tempo MVFR tsra at KFST through this evening.


12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 330 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar is showing showers moving up from the southeast
into the Permian Basin this morning. This activity, though
continuing to spread northwest, should remain fairly weak and
isolated. The greatest rainfall potential for today will be in the
Big Bend where models are showing an upper disturbance moving out
of Mexico potentially producing heavy rainfall from Presidio to
Sanderson. This area has not seen much rain lately and can take
quite a bit of rain, but locally heavy downpours could still
create some flash flooding problems and this will be the greatest
weather threat for today.

Tomorrow a ridge builds over the west coast and northwesterly flow
over the Rockies will send another disturbance into the area.
Shear and instability will be enough to support severe
thunderstorms with large hail in discrete supercells, and also a
strong wind threat should the activity form an MCS. See more
details in the SWODY2 from SPC.

The trough will send a cold front into the CWA early Tuesday,
pushing the rain east but keeping below normal temps through
midweek. Things change Thursday when the ridge over the western
U.S. flattens and moves east with westerly flow bringing much
warmer temperatures. Highs Thursday will range from the mid 90s to
100s with weaker flow Friday and Saturday only providing a couple
of degrees of relief.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     78  60  82  59 /  30  30  30  50
Carlsbad                       78  59  88  57 /  20  30  30  30
Dryden                         76  64  86  64 /  70  50  30  30
Fort Stockton                  71  60  84  60 /  50  30  30  30
Guadalupe Pass                 71  56  82  55 /  30  30  30  20
Hobbs                          76  57  79  54 /  20  30  30  50
Marfa                          74  54  84  54 /  50  30  30  30
Midland Intl Airport           76  60  81  58 /  40  30  30  50
Odessa                         76  60  82  58 /  40  30  30  50
Wink                           78  60  86  58 /  30  30  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10
347
FXUS64 KMAF 210503
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1203 AM CDT Sun May 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will become prevailing MVFR ceilings at the west
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals in the 21/09z to 21/13z
Sunday morning time frame. MVFR ceilings will continue through
much of the day with a prob30 chance of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon at KMAF, KINK, KPEQ. Tempo MVFR conditions in
showers and thunderstorms are expected at KFST for much of Sunday.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 618 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Winds will be fairly light out of the east to southeast through
the overnight period before becoming elevated out of the southeast
Sunday afternoon. Low ceilings are expected to move into the area
around 09z to 12z. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will
increase after 12z. The low ceilings are expected to remain across
most of the area through the afternoon tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CDT Sat May 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Post-frontal low clouds have dissipated but clouds will return
tonight with se low level winds. Overnight the focus will be
across the Big Bend and Lower Trans Pecos region where the best
chance of rain will be found, but moreso on Sunday after 12Z. The
presence of an upper level speed max/shrtwv trof and development
of se low level flow along with mid level LRs around 7.5 C/KM
will be sufficient for development of storms. PW will be around +
1 to 2 standard deviations and locally heavy rain will be a
concern along with a few strong/severe storms across the Big
Bend/Lower Trans Pecos. We have increased PoPs in said areas
Sunday including the mention of heavy rain. There could be some
low end response on the Rio Grande and tributaries? Farther n
across the PB low PoPs are warranted. On Monday tstms will likely
be more isold across the Trans Pecos. Mid level flow will
transition to NW on Monday and the chance of tstms will increase
Monday evening with an embedded shrtwv trof and PB will be on the
poleward side of a 95kt 3h jet. Storms initially are favored to
develop in ern NM on the leeward side of the low level thermal
ridge and develop/move se. These storms will likely be severe on
late Monday afternoon/evening. Even though there will be outflow
winds with this cluster of storms the real cold front is not
expected until closer to 12Z Tue. High/low temps will mostly
remain below through Monday then re-enforced with said front on
Tue. Pops will mostly be confined to s of the Pecos River Tue PM
INVOF the front. A strong warming trend will commence Wed and be
fully in gear by Thur into Sat. Next weekend is Memorial Day
weekend and is the climatological peak for severe wx, however the
current fcst will not be in alignment with climatology.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  57  76  60 /   0  10  20  20
Carlsbad                       80  56  77  61 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         80  65  74  65 /  30  40  70  30
Fort Stockton                  79  61  73  62 /  10  20  60  20
Guadalupe Pass                 73  53  69  56 /   0  10  40  20
Hobbs                          77  52  76  58 /   0   0  10  20
Marfa                          78  55  74  55 /  10  30  60  20
Midland Intl Airport           79  57  76  60 /   0  10  20  20
Odessa                         79  58  75  61 /   0  10  20  20
Wink                           82  60  77  61 /   0  10  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/12

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  • Page Author: NWS Fort Worth
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  • Page last modified: 30-Sep-2016 6:36 PM UTC
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