Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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891
FXUS64 KMAF 151033
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
533 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014

.AVIATION...

KMAF radar shows a MCV has developed over the S. Plains, but mostly just
SHRA activity at the moment. However...convection is expected to redevelop
later today as a shortwave moves south into the area. VFR conditions
should prevail next 24 hours except KHOB...which buffer soundings
suggest will have a few hours of MVFR cigs today. MVFR visbys will
be possible w/and convection. Otherwise...sfc winds will gradually
veer to SE over the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 447 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Tuesday...radar imagery is indc
isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms mainly in the Permian
Basin and along an arc from Tatum to Carlsbad to south of Pecos.
Another area of showers are moving into the northern tier of
counties in the CWA...from Gaines County to Scurry County.

Tricky forecast today in relation to convection and temps. 00Z
models did a poor job in initializing the convection. Pretty much
went with isolated/scattered pops through tonight with a weak
shortwave and upper level diffluence...and mainly chance pops for
Wednesday as a shortwave moves over the CWA in the NW flow aloft.
Some of the storms could be strong...especially Wednesday with a
little more shear. Locally heavy rain is possible with storms
today through Wednesday. There is a wide range of temps between
the different models for today and Wednesday. With the expected
cloud cover have went down the middle with temps...with Wednesday
a little hotter as the thermal ridge will be a little closer to
the CWA.

A strong shortwave will drop south through the Plains states
Wednesday night/Thursday. This will drive a cold front through the
CWA down to the Rio Grande and continue the threat of convection.
Temps on Thursday will be 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The front
will stall along the Rio Grande on Friday and will wash out. Have
confined pops on Friday to the mountains and the Rio Grande
Valley. Have kept temps below normal for Friday as well.

A ridge will begin to build north out of Chihuahua over the
weekend and into early next week. This will bring hot
temperatures to the CWA...especially Sunday through next Tuesday
with widespread 100+ temperatures across the CWA. Have isolated
pops each aftn/evening from the Guadalupe Mtns through the Davis
Mtns with intense elevated heating and a surface trough providing
a focus for convection.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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