Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 070557

1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

Main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is thunderstorm
activity and low cigs affecting terminals through Tuesday morning.
Currently have thunderstorms marching east from SE NM while new
development is popping up to the south toward PEQ and FST. This
activity is expected to continue to move east, affecting all but
CNM over the next several hours. A cold front, currently draped
across northern portions of the region, has resulted in gusty
north winds at SE NM terminals. Not really expecting a hard push
to the south so will keep other sites in southeasterly flow for
now. Having a somewhat difficult time in determining which sites
will see low cigs due to the ongoing thunderstorm activity. HOB is
already seeing IFR cigs so went ahead and included mention through
morning. Timing of low cigs affecting other sites were based off
current trends and latest model data however things could easily
change... Will continue to monitor and make amendments when
needed. Quite possible we will see convection develop once again
Tuesday afternoon but will hold off on including mention in the
TAFs until next TAF cycle. In addition, model guidance suggest a
few terminals may experience persistent MVFR cigs through much of
the day Tuesday but will keep VFR for now.



Upper ridge centered over S TX this morning will shift westward
across Mexico.  A broad upper ridge will remain across the southern
tier of states Tuesday as an upper low moves ashore the West Coast.
This low will slowly wobble eastward before lifting northward.
However in the mean time conditions are coming together with the
potential for a heavy rain event.

A weak cold front should move down into the area tonight and slowly
sag southward.  The front looks to hang up over the area early
Tuesday but may bridge southward as surface ridge pushes southward.
This means much of the area may not see a strong passage but the
wind may slowly come around to the east.

There is a heavy rain potential... there is good low level moisture
with dewpts in the 60s and even into low 70s south and east.  MAF
12z sounding had a PW of 1.57 inches and model soundings show high
PW will continue through Tuesday.  By noon storms had developed over
the Davis Mountains and these have spread east across the Trans
Pecos.  This is the location with the stronger theta-e axis.  Based
on model qpf this precip may expand north ward through the late
afternoon.  Additional rain should begin tonight mainly out west and
then spread eastward across the area as the front moves south.
Spent a long time considering a flash flood watch for tonight or
Tuesday but decided at least for tonight the heaviest rain should be
north of the area so will not issue.  Lea County and the Northern
Permian Basin will be closest to the area of concern for flash
flooding tonight... but should only get brushed with the heavier
rain.  However for tomorrow the potential still exists for heavy
rain over the eastern Permian Basin as a decent shortwave arrives
and provides upper support for heavy rain.  Do have mention of heavy
rain in forecast for northern CWA tonight and eastern CWA Tuesday
and will continue to highlight flash flood potential in the HWO.  A
Flash Flood Watch could still be needed Tuesday for the Eastern
Permian Basin but need to see how rain develops tonight.  Some rain
may linger into Wednesday but then after that pops should be on the
decrease and mainly confined to the higher elevations.

Temperatures are being affected by the increased moisture/cloud
cover as overnight lows are remaining much higher.  Tuesday should
be cooler with the weak front... but it could turn out much cooler
if it stays rainy/cloudy all day.  Will go below guidance Tuesday
and may still not be low enough.  Temperatures will slowly climb
Wednesday through the end of the week.





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