Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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161
FXUS64 KMAF 210323 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
923 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015

.UPDATE...
Update has been sent to reflect FROPA a little earlier across the
nw-n CWFA and to remove NPW highlights for GDP Mtns.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cold front moving thru the Panhandle at the moment is being pushed
by a 8mb/3hr isallobaric anticyclone. NAM12 looks to be under doing
the wind there, RUC13/HRRR are a little better. Still the general
idea is that the isallobaric anticyclone will track sse and weaken
by 12Z to around 6-7 mb, thus winds aren`t expected to be as strong
as they are now in the Panhandle when front arrives in the PB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 508 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue through the night. Strong westerly
winds will subside after sunset at all terminals except KCNM where
winds may gust over 25 kts most of the night. Thick high clouds
will also continue to stream across the region. A cold front will
arrive around 21/12Z with moderate northeasterly winds behind it
most of Saturday. A few low cigs could accompany the front, but
should mix out quickly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows NW flow aloft thru most of the CONUS, w/ the next
shortwave digging thru the Rockies and approaching the Four Corners
region.  Closer to home, sfc obs show SW-W downslope flow has warmed
temps into the 70s most locations, making it feel more like late May
than late February...despite increasing cloud cover.  Out west, obs
and RTMA analysis shows Red Flag conditions have developed in the
Guadalupes, and extending SE into the upper Trans Pecos. Winds at
KGDP are flirting w/high wind criteria as well.  Models suggest
current warning products covering these conditions through the
mid-evening will not need extending.

Saturday, the aforementioned shortwave will backdoor a cold
front into the area, w/fropa at KMAF at around 12Z.  This doesn`t
look to be that strong, but will knock afternoon temps across the NE
half of the CWA down to around normal, before stalling midway thru
the FA.  Saturday night, isentropic upglide is forecast to begin
increasing cloud cover over the NE, and spread SW into the day
Sunday.  A much stronger secondary front arrives Sunday, w/buffer
soundings putting fropa at KMAF at around 18Z.  An upper trough will
begin amplifying over the western CONUS during this time,
transitioning flow aloft to zonal, and even a little SW, by 00Z
Monday, and begin sending minor shortwaves into the area.  Isentropic
upglide will be on the uptick w/SW flow Sunday afternoon/night as
CAA dams up against the mtns, for a chance of precipitation over the
nrn zones.  Forecast soundings keep precip rain during the day
Sunday, but just barely in the NE zones.  However, after 00Z, cold
air in the PBL surges south, changing rain to a wintry mix.
Saturation in the column never gets abv around H8, so SN can be
ruled out, and soundings lean more toward FZRA and/or IP.  Thickness
of the cold layer fluctuates between FZRA and IP at times, and this
far out, confidence is low picking one or the other, as models will
change.  Thus, we`ll go w/a FZRA/IP mix north of I-10 Sunday night,
dropping a little further south Monday as the west coast trough
approaches and pushes precip east.  Ice accumulations look fairly
light, w/totals of around 0.15" in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and
tapering off W and S.  This will likely require and advisory either
tonight or Saturday, due to potential adverse
impacts.

Otherwise, temps bottom out Monday afternoon, then begin warming
into midweek before another front arrives Thursday.  Another trough
rounds out the forecast Thursday night/Friday, bringing a chance of
rain and snow to the NE zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 43  64  38  38  /   0   0   0  20
BIG SPRING TX              46  65  41  42  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                47  71  43  47  /   0   0  10  40
DRYDEN TX                  55  83  52  64  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           55  72  47  62  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  68  48  59  /   0   0  10  30
HOBBS NM                   39  63  35  37  /   0   0   0  30
MARFA TX                   45  71  39  70  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  64  40  43  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  46  65  41  43  /   0   0   0  20
WINK TX                    48  72  40  49  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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