Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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303
FXUS64 KMAF 141725
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals early this afternoon and again early Monday
morning. Currently have MVFR/IFR cigs at all sites except HOB where
LIFR cigs persist. Conditions have slowly been improving over the
last hour so have all terminals returning to VFR by 14/19-20Z.
Light showers generally affecting FST and MAF this morning but is
not expected to last too much longer. Could see SHRA/TSRA develop
across western portions of the region later this afternoon but
confidence was too low to include in the TAF for now. Will
continue to monitor trends for any changes and amend when needed.
Expecting IFR cigs/vsby to develop once again early Monday morning
but only included TEMPO at HOB, MAF and INK attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

UPDATE...
Based on current radar trends, adjusted higher PoPs eastward into
the lower Trans Pecos and western Permian Basin through 18Z today.
Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks to be on track and no
other changes were made. Areas of fog will continue across
portions of southeast NM, Permian Basin and low Trans Pecos through
the morning. Visibilities could drop to near 1/4-1/2 mile at times.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...
There is an abundance of tropical moisture over Mexico and high
pressure over the northern Gulf Coast continues funneling it over
west Texas and southeastern New Mexico. Radar is currently showing
light showers over the Big Bend moving north and will increase in
coverage later today, especially along and west of the Pecos
River. This moisture will remain at least through Tuesday
providing decent rain chances for much of the area, with a weak
cold front dropping into the Permian Basin Tuesday providing extra
lift.

In the meantime, surface high pressure centered right along I-20
will move east allowing for a return flow and gradually warming
temperatures over the next several days. Low clouds that kept
Saturday so cool will begin to break up this afternoon allowing
for greater afternoon heating and highs to increase closer to
normal.

Models show an upper ridge amplifying over the western U.S.
reducing rain chances by mid week. Do not have mention of rain
late in the week in this forecast but there may be enough residual
moisture that isolated convection could develop especially in the
higher terrain. All models are showing an upper trough moving
across the northern states by Friday but are very inconsistent
with exact timing and strength of this feature. The GFS has a
deeper trough and plenty of rain while the other models are weaker
and drier. Have kept the extended dry for now, would like to see a
few more runs before putting even slight chance PoPs so far out in
the forecast.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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