Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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709
FXUS64 KMAF 202308
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
508 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Strong westerly winds are beginning to subside this evening.
Intense cyclogenesis over the Southern Plains Saturday will lead
to strong and damaging winds over a good part of the area. Expect
winds to really pick up by late morning with gusts over 40 kts
likely at all terminals by afternoon. Could see some BLDU and a
few SHRA but VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough ejecting NE thru the Central
Plains...only to be replaced by a closed low forecast to develop and
move/strengthen from the west coast to the Texas/OK Panhandles over
the next 24 hours.  This portends a significant wind event Saturday
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  The NAM12 forecasts a
potent mtn wave signature thru Saturday night, which is pretty much a
given for this pattern.  Very strong westerlies are forecast to
round the base of the trough Saturday.  NAM buffer soundings for
KMAF mix out Saturday afternoon to 750mb, where ~ 50kt winds are
forecast, whereas the GFS mixes to 725mb...w/~ 45kt winds.
Consequently, MOS numbers reflect this, w/the tamer MET guidance
forecasting high winds for most of the CWA.  H7 height gradients
tighten up to 60m/120nm, lending legitimacy to a very windy day.
What`s more, the sfc pressure gradient is forecast to tighten
considerably Saturday night as the sfc trough passes to the NE, so
windy conditions could carry into the overnight hours as well.  The
only parameter that could spoil these high winds would be an
expected increase in cloud cover Saturday to inhibit mixing.  For
now, confidence is high in at least warning criteria being met
Saturday over the western zones, with a sizable chunk of the central
FA meeting advisory conditions.  If anything, winds will be stronger
on Saturday, and we`ll let the mid shift crew expand all this
further east (and into Saturday night) if necessary.

Otherwise, chances of rain and even an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible Saturday, but otherwise the forecast looks dry.  An upper
ridge follows the trough, w/temps Monday afternoon climbing into the
70s most locations...before a series of dry fronts bring temps to
below normal Wednesday into the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  65  42  62 /  10  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  59  39  58 /  20  40   0   0
Dryden                         46  71  46  68 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  66  42  62 /  10  40   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  45  31  50 /  40  60  10   0
Hobbs                          42  56  38  59 /  20  30   0   0
Marfa                          35  57  31  56 /  10  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  63  42  60 /  20  20   0   0
Odessa                         44  59  41  60 /  20  20   0   0
Wink                           44  59  40  61 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Eddy County
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for Andrews-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
     MST/ Saturday for Big Bend Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/29
054
FXUS64 KMAF 202127
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 PM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper trough ejecting NE thru the Central
Plains...only to be replaced by a closed low forecast to develop and
move/strengthen from the west coast to the Texas/OK Panhandles over
the next 24 hours.  This portends a significant wind event Saturday
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  The NAM12 forecasts a
potent mtn wave signature thru Saturday night, which is pretty much a
given for this pattern.  Very strong westerlies are forecast to
round the base of the trough Saturday.  NAM buffer soundings for
KMAF mix out Saturday afternoon to 750mb, where ~ 50kt winds are
forecast, whereas the GFS mixes to 725mb...w/~ 45kt winds.
Consequently, MOS numbers reflect this, w/the tamer MET guidance
forecasting high winds for most of the CWA.  H7 height gradients
tighten up to 60m/120nm, lending legitimacy to a very windy day.
What`s more, the sfc pressure gradient is forecast to tighten
considerably Saturday night as the sfc trough passes to the NE, so
windy conditions could carry into the overnight hours as well.  The
only parameter that could spoil these high winds would be an
expected increase in cloud cover Saturday to inhibit mixing.  For
now, confidence is high in at least warning criteria being met
Saturday over the western zones, with a sizable chunk of the central
FA meeting advisory conditions.  If anything, winds will be stronger
on Saturday, and we`ll let the mid shift crew expand all this
further east (and into Saturday night) if necessary.

Otherwise, chances of rain and even an isolated thunderstorm will be
possible Saturday, but otherwise the forecast looks dry.  An upper
ridge follows the trough, w/temps Monday afternoon climbing into the
70s most locations...before a series of dry fronts bring temps to
below normal Wednesday into the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     45  65  42  62 /  10  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  59  39  58 /  20  40   0   0
Dryden                         46  71  46  68 /  10  20  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  66  42  62 /  10  40   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  45  31  50 /  40  60  10   0
Hobbs                          42  56  38  59 /  20  30   0   0
Marfa                          35  57  31  56 /  10  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  63  42  60 /  20  20   0   0
Odessa                         44  59  41  60 /  20  20   0   0
Wink                           44  59  40  61 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Central Lea
     County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for Eddy County
     Plains.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

TX...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Saturday for Andrews-Dawson-
     Gaines-Loving-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM
     MST/ Saturday for Big Bend Area-Marfa Plateau-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

80/44
222
FXUS64 KMAF 201727
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1127 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will pick
up in intensity out of the west this afternoon and will gust
between 30 - 35 kts in many locations. Winds will decrease in
strength this evening and become southwest before picking up again
Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Will have an upper trough moving across the Rockies today while
another trough comes over the West Coast.  This second trough looks
stronger and will reach the area by Saturday developing a closed low
over the Panhandle.  After it moves east will get upper ridging
Sunday while the next in a line of troughs moves ashore.  Part of
this trough will cross the Rockies late Monday while the other
portion of it digs down the coast to Mexico Tuesday.  This trough
will move across the region Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday was a windy day.  Looking really windy again today and even
windier on Saturday.  Wind will remain out of the west with a deep
surface low below 1000mb over SE CO today will drop into the
Panhandle Saturday.  A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns through Saturday night with a Wind Advisory
in effect this afternoon for the adjacent plains.

Temperatures mild for this time of year and above normal with highs
today in the 60s with a few 70s south.  Saturday a few degrees
cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Warmer Monday with 70s
returning.  Next cold front on Wednesday with highs in the 50s the
rest of the week.

Precip chances... could see a few showers tonight west with chances
increasing Saturday.  Could be some storms Saturday also.  Precip
chances drop after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  62  41 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       64  44  59  39 /  10  20  40  10
Dryden                         71  47  69  45 /   0  10  30  20
Fort Stockton                  67  45  65  44 /   0  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 51  37  47  31 /  10  30  60  20
Hobbs                          60  41  57  37 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          60  33  58  29 /   0  20  50  20
Midland Intl Airport           65  44  61  41 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                         64  43  60  41 /   0  10  20  10
Wink                           66  42  61  40 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

99/99/
072
FXUS64 KMAF 201113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
513 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

West winds will increase through the morning and by afternoon
sustained speeds of 20-30kt can be expected at most terminals. Windy
conditions will persist through afternoon then diminish this
evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Will have an upper trough moving across the Rockies today while
another trough comes over the West Coast.  This second trough looks
stronger and will reach the area by Saturday developing a closed low
over the Panhandle.  After it moves east will get upper ridging
Sunday while the next in a line of troughs moves ashore.  Part of
this trough will cross the Rockies late Monday while the other
portion of it digs down the coast to Mexico Tuesday.  This trough
will move across the region Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday was a windy day.  Looking really windy again today and even
windier on Saturday.  Wind will remain out of the west with a deep
surface low below 1000mb over SE CO today will drop into the
Panhandle Saturday.  A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns through Saturday night with a Wind Advisory
in effect this afternoon for the adjacent plains.

Temperatures mild for this time of year and above normal with highs
today in the 60s with a few 70s south.  Saturday a few degrees
cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Warmer Monday with 70s
returning.  Next cold front on Wednesday with highs in the 50s the
rest of the week.

Precip chances... could see a few showers tonight west with chances
increasing Saturday.  Could be some storms Saturday also.  Precip
chances drop after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  62  41 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       64  44  59  39 /  10  20  40  10
Dryden                         71  47  69  45 /   0  10  30  20
Fort Stockton                  67  45  65  44 /   0  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 51  37  47  31 /  10  30  60  20
Hobbs                          60  41  57  37 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          60  33  58  29 /   0  20  50  20
Midland Intl Airport           65  44  61  41 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                         64  43  60  41 /   0  10  20  10
Wink                           66  42  61  40 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 8 PM CST
     /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

27/72
303
FXUS64 KMAF 200933
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
333 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Will have an upper trough moving across the Rockies today while
another trough comes over the West Coast.  This second trough looks
stronger and will reach the area by Saturday developing a closed low
over the Panhandle.  After it moves east will get upper ridging
Sunday while the next in a line of troughs moves ashore.  Part of
this trough will cross the Rockies late Monday while the other
portion of it digs down the coast to Mexico Tuesday.  This trough
will move across the region Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday was a windy day.  Looking really windy again today and even
windier on Saturday.  Wind will remain out of the west with a deep
surface low below 1000mb over SE CO today will drop into the
Panhandle Saturday.  A High Wind Warning remains in effect for the
Guadalupe and Davis Mtns through Saturday night with a Wind Advisory
in effect this afternoon for the adjacent plains.

Temperatures mild for this time of year and above normal with highs
today in the 60s with a few 70s south.  Saturday a few degrees
cooler with highs in the 50s and 60s.  Warmer Monday with 70s
returning.  Next cold front on Wednesday with highs in the 50s the
rest of the week.

Precip chances... could see a few showers tonight west with chances
increasing Saturday.  Could be some storms Saturday also.  Precip
chances drop after that.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     66  44  62  41 /   0  10  20  10
Carlsbad                       64  44  59  39 /  10  20  40  10
Dryden                         71  47  69  45 /   0  10  30  20
Fort Stockton                  67  45  65  44 /   0  10  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 51  37  47  31 /  10  30  60  20
Hobbs                          60  41  57  37 /   0  10  30  10
Marfa                          60  33  58  29 /   0  20  50  20
Midland Intl Airport           65  44  61  41 /   0  10  20  10
Odessa                         64  43  60  41 /   0  10  20  10
Wink                           66  42  61  40 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ this morning to 8 PM CST
     /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

27/72
052
FXUS64 KMAF 200418
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1018 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
Winds have diminished somewhat but remain gusty across SE NM. This
trend will continue through the morning before westerly winds
pick up areawide once again by afternoon. VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  42  66  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       65  43  62  43 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         72  41  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  68  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          62  39  60  40 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          59  30  60  33 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  44 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  41  67  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
     Friday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29
708
FXUS64 KMAF 200212
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
812 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Wind Advisory for today to expire.  The High
Wind Warning, and Wind Advisory for Friday, remain in effect.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Westerly winds have decreased across the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, and even moreso across the plains, with sunset/decoupling
of winds.  Mid level winds will remain strong over the region
tonight, so think high winds may continue in the higher elevations
of the Guadalupe Mountains at least sporadically, but they could
unexpectedly mix to the lower elevations too.  Over the plains, only
Carlsbad and western reaches of Eddy County, could see stronger
winds mix down suddenly.  Still, cooler temperatures will prevent
the strongest winds from mixing down, and will allow the Wind
Advisory for the plains to expire.  Will leave the High Wind Warning
going for the Guadalupe Mountains, and the higher elevations of the
Davis Mountains, where stronger winds will be much more likely to
mix down overnight.  Also, the Wind Advisory for Friday late morning
and afternoon is still in effect.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 610 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF Issuance
VFR Conditions will continue through the overnight hours. Winds
will decrease slightly but remain gusty overnight before
increasing once again Fri afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main story this forecast package will be the wind.  There is an
upper trough over the Central Plains and the base of this trough is
passing over the CWA with a surface low across the TX panhandle.
High winds in the base of this trough are mixing downward resulting
in high winds over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  A High Wind
Warning is in effect for this area. Winds will also increase across
the plains this afternoon.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
Eddy County plains, the Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Reeves
County, and the Upper Trans Pecos area this afternoon. These strong
west winds will contribute to downslope warming and will result in
temperatures warming up to above normal with highs mostly in the
60s.

The previously mentioned upper trough will lift northeastward on
Friday but another upper trough will be right on it`s heels and move
over the region by Friday afternoon. There is expected to be a lull
in the winds overnight but they will pick up in intensity tomorrow.
High winds are expected in the same places as today with wind
advisory conditions in the surrounding plains.  Have decided to
extend the High Wind Warning through Sunday morning for the
Guadalupe and Davis/Apache Mountains as 700 mb winds increase in
intensity each day with Saturday being the strongest.  Another Wind
Advisory is in effect tomorrow morning through evening for the same
locations as today. This may need to be extended across more areas.
Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be fairly similar to today.
This next upper trough will lift northeastward as the previous one
did and another trough will begin to move over the area on Saturday.
This will result in more high winds.  Models are showing the upper
trough on Saturday to bring in increased chances of rain. It appears
that the best chances of rain will be across areas along the higher
terrain and west of the Upper Trans Pecos. The Permian Basin only
looks like it will have a slight chance of light rain for Saturday.
This increase in moisture and cloud cover will result in
temperatures on Saturday cooling slightly.  The winds on Saturday
will likely be impacted by the increase in cloud cover but still
expect high winds across the higher terrain.  It is likely that
advisory level conditions will be present as far east as the Permian
Basin on Saturday but it is uncertain how much the cloud cover will
impact these winds.

The upper trough moves east of the region on Sunday with upper
ridging beginning to develop.  This will result in rain chances
ending by Sunday and winds across the area decreasing in intensity.
The models are also showing a northeasterly wind shift on Sunday but
this will have minimal affect on temperatures.  On Monday,
temperatures are expected to warm up to more than 10 degrees above
normal as a lee surface trough develops in advance of the next
approaching upper trough.  The next upper trough will begin to move
over the region on Tuesday bringing more strong winds over the area.
These winds will be in the form of a Pacific front so temperatures
on Tuesday will cool to near normal.  An even stronger cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday as the upper trough
continues moving over the central part of the country.  This will
result in high temperatures mostly being in the 50s for Wednesday.
Temperatures next Thursday appear to be cooler than Wednesday.  The
extended forecast is looking to be dry at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       43  62  43  59 /   0  10  20  40
Dryden                         41  72  47  71 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  43  68  45  65 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 36  51  37  48 /   0  10  30  60
Hobbs                          39  60  40  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          30  60  33  52 /   0   0  20  50
Midland Intl Airport           43  66  44  63 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         42  65  43  62 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           41  67  42  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
     Friday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$
756
FXUS64 KMAF 200010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Issuance
VFR Conditions will continue through the overnight hours. Winds
will decrease slightly but remain gusty overnight before
increasing once again Fri afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 243 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main story this forecast package will be the wind.  There is an
upper trough over the Central Plains and the base of this trough is
passing over the CWA with a surface low across the TX panhandle.
High winds in the base of this trough are mixing downward resulting
in high winds over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  A High Wind
Warning is in effect for this area. Winds will also increase across
the plains this afternoon.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
Eddy County plains, the Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Reeves
County, and the Upper Trans Pecos area this afternoon. These strong
west winds will contribute to downslope warming and will result in
temperatures warming up to above normal with highs mostly in the
60s.

The previously mentioned upper trough will lift northeastward on
Friday but another upper trough will be right on it`s heels and move
over the region by Friday afternoon. There is expected to be a lull
in the winds overnight but they will pick up in intensity tomorrow.
High winds are expected in the same places as today with wind
advisory conditions in the surrounding plains.  Have decided to
extend the High Wind Warning through Sunday morning for the
Guadalupe and Davis/Apache Mountains as 700 mb winds increase in
intensity each day with Saturday being the strongest.  Another Wind
Advisory is in effect tomorrow morning through evening for the same
locations as today. This may need to be extended across more areas.
Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be fairly similar to today.
This next upper trough will lift northeastward as the previous one
did and another trough will begin to move over the area on Saturday.
This will result in more high winds.  Models are showing the upper
trough on Saturday to bring in increased chances of rain. It appears
that the best chances of rain will be across areas along the higher
terrain and west of the Upper Trans Pecos. The Permian Basin only
looks like it will have a slight chance of light rain for Saturday.
This increase in moisture and cloud cover will result in
temperatures on Saturday cooling slightly.  The winds on Saturday
will likely be impacted by the increase in cloud cover but still
expect high winds across the higher terrain.  It is likely that
advisory level conditions will be present as far east as the Permian
Basin on Saturday but it is uncertain how much the cloud cover will
impact these winds.

The upper trough moves east of the region on Sunday with upper
ridging beginning to develop.  This will result in rain chances
ending by Sunday and winds across the area decreasing in intensity.
The models are also showing a northeasterly wind shift on Sunday but
this will have minimal affect on temperatures.  On Monday,
temperatures are expected to warm up to more than 10 degrees above
normal as a lee surface trough develops in advance of the next
approaching upper trough.  The next upper trough will begin to move
over the region on Tuesday bringing more strong winds over the area.
These winds will be in the form of a Pacific front so temperatures
on Tuesday will cool to near normal.  An even stronger cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday as the upper trough
continues moving over the central part of the country.  This will
result in high temperatures mostly being in the 50s for Wednesday.
Temperatures next Thursday appear to be cooler than Wednesday.  The
extended forecast is looking to be dry at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       43  62  43  59 /   0  10  20  40
Dryden                         41  72  47  71 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  43  68  45  65 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 36  51  37  48 /   0  10  30  60
Hobbs                          39  60  40  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          30  60  33  52 /   0   0  20  50
Midland Intl Airport           43  66  44  63 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         42  65  43  62 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           41  67  42  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
     Friday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

29
732
FXUS64 KMAF 192043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
243 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The main story this forecast package will be the wind.  There is an
upper trough over the Central Plains and the base of this trough is
passing over the CWA with a surface low across the TX panhandle.
High winds in the base of this trough are mixing downward resulting
in high winds over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  A High Wind
Warning is in effect for this area. Winds will also increase across
the plains this afternoon.  A Wind Advisory is in effect for the
Eddy County plains, the Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor, Reeves
County, and the Upper Trans Pecos area this afternoon. These strong
west winds will contribute to downslope warming and will result in
temperatures warming up to above normal with highs mostly in the
60s.

The previously mentioned upper trough will lift northeastward on
Friday but another upper trough will be right on it`s heels and move
over the region by Friday afternoon. There is expected to be a lull
in the winds overnight but they will pick up in intensity tomorrow.
High winds are expected in the same places as today with wind
advisory conditions in the surrounding plains.  Have decided to
extend the High Wind Warning through Sunday morning for the
Guadalupe and Davis/Apache Mountains as 700 mb winds increase in
intensity each day with Saturday being the strongest.  Another Wind
Advisory is in effect tomorrow morning through evening for the same
locations as today. This may need to be extended across more areas.
Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be fairly similar to today.
This next upper trough will lift northeastward as the previous one
did and another trough will begin to move over the area on Saturday.
This will result in more high winds.  Models are showing the upper
trough on Saturday to bring in increased chances of rain. It appears
that the best chances of rain will be across areas along the higher
terrain and west of the Upper Trans Pecos. The Permian Basin only
looks like it will have a slight chance of light rain for Saturday.
This increase in moisture and cloud cover will result in
temperatures on Saturday cooling slightly.  The winds on Saturday
will likely be impacted by the increase in cloud cover but still
expect high winds across the higher terrain.  It is likely that
advisory level conditions will be present as far east as the Permian
Basin on Saturday but it is uncertain how much the cloud cover will
impact these winds.

The upper trough moves east of the region on Sunday with upper
ridging beginning to develop.  This will result in rain chances
ending by Sunday and winds across the area decreasing in intensity.
The models are also showing a northeasterly wind shift on Sunday but
this will have minimal affect on temperatures.  On Monday,
temperatures are expected to warm up to more than 10 degrees above
normal as a lee surface trough develops in advance of the next
approaching upper trough.  The next upper trough will begin to move
over the region on Tuesday bringing more strong winds over the area.
These winds will be in the form of a Pacific front so temperatures
on Tuesday will cool to near normal.  An even stronger cold front
will move through the area on Wednesday as the upper trough
continues moving over the central part of the country.  This will
result in high temperatures mostly being in the 50s for Wednesday.
Temperatures next Thursday appear to be cooler than Wednesday.  The
extended forecast is looking to be dry at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  66  44  64 /   0   0  10  20
Carlsbad                       43  62  43  59 /   0  10  20  40
Dryden                         41  72  47  71 /   0   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  43  68  45  65 /   0   0  10  30
Guadalupe Pass                 36  51  37  48 /   0  10  30  60
Hobbs                          39  60  40  58 /   0   0  10  30
Marfa                          30  60  33  52 /   0   0  20  50
Midland Intl Airport           43  66  44  63 /   0   0  10  20
Odessa                         42  65  43  62 /   0   0  10  20
Wink                           41  67  42  63 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 7 PM MST Friday for Eddy County
     Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM CST /9 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/
     Friday for Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

44/80
224
FXUS64 KMAF 191732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1132 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Did a quick update to add Eddy and Reeves Counties to the Wind
Advisory, and update other parameters as necessary.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 924 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in strong westerly sfc
flow, gusty during the afternoon hours. A few high clouds are
anticipated.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. West winds will gust near 30
kts 18-00Z then diminish later tonight.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the windy conditions
expected for the next several days, particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains...

A stubborn upper low, that has been rotating just north of
the area the last couple days, will finally lift northeast today
with shortwave ridging filling in behind it. Meanwhile, a lee
surface trough will deepen over the TX Panhandle, inducing gusty
west winds today. High winds have already been reported overnight
across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and should continue to
increase through mid afternoon with gusts up to 70 MPH possible. In
addition, high winds are expected to spread to the higher elevations
of the Davis Mountains where gusts up to 60 MPH is possible.
Currently, a High Wind Warning is in affect for these areas through
Friday morning however the Guadalupe Mountains look to maintain high
winds beyond tonight and this warning may need to be extended in
future forecast packages for this location. A Wind Advisory is also
in affect across the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor region for today
however a few locations in the higher elevations of the Delaware
Mountains could reach high wind for a brief period. Elsewhere, west
winds will increase to near 20-25 MPH with gusts near 35 to 40
MPH possible. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue today
with highs warming well into the 60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another windy day as an upper trough quickly passes
to the north. Strong westerly winds on the southern edge of the
system will mix down, enhancing surface winds through the day. As
this system lifts NE into the Central Plains Friday night, another
upper trough will quickly follow, approaching the region Saturday
and yes, bringing more wind! Its position will be farther south than
the previous system, spreading gusty west winds across all areas.
Rain chances remain for Saturday however rainfall amounts could be
very light but temperatures will be slightly cooler. This system
will shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the
area however temperatures will be similar to Saturday with highs
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain elevated
through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short break
through Monday as upper ridging briefly takes over. Monday looks
like it could be a rather warm day so started trending high
temperatures warmer. Then, surprise, gusty west winds return
Tuesday as yet another upper trough swings through the Desert SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  42  66  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       65  43  62  42 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         72  41  72  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  68  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  30
Hobbs                          62  39  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          59  30  60  33 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  41  67  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

     Wind Advisory until 7 PM MST this evening for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.

&&

$$

44/80
812
FXUS64 KMAF 191524
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
924 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in strong westerly sfc
flow, gusty during the afternoon hours. A few high clouds are
anticipated.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 512 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. West winds will gust near 30
kts 18-00Z then diminish later tonight.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the windy conditions
expected for the next several days, particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains...

A stubborn upper low, that has been rotating just north of
the area the last couple days, will finally lift northeast today
with shortwave ridging filling in behind it. Meanwhile, a lee
surface trough will deepen over the TX Panhandle, inducing gusty
west winds today. High winds have already been reported overnight
across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and should continue to
increase through mid afternoon with gusts up to 70 MPH possible. In
addition, high winds are expected to spread to the higher elevations
of the Davis Mountains where gusts up to 60 MPH is possible.
Currently, a High Wind Warning is in affect for these areas through
Friday morning however the Guadalupe Mountains look to maintain high
winds beyond tonight and this warning may need to be extended in
future forecast packages for this location. A Wind Advisory is also
in affect across the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor region for today
however a few locations in the higher elevations of the Delaware
Mountains could reach high wind for a brief period. Elsewhere, west
winds will increase to near 20-25 MPH with gusts near 35 to 40
MPH possible. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue today
with highs warming well into the 60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another windy day as an upper trough quickly passes
to the north. Strong westerly winds on the southern edge of the
system will mix down, enhancing surface winds through the day. As
this system lifts NE into the Central Plains Friday night, another
upper trough will quickly follow, approaching the region Saturday
and yes, bringing more wind! Its position will be farther south than
the previous system, spreading gusty west winds across all areas.
Rain chances remain for Saturday however rainfall amounts could be
very light but temperatures will be slightly cooler. This system
will shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the
area however temperatures will be similar to Saturday with highs
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain elevated
through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short break
through Monday as upper ridging briefly takes over. Monday looks
like it could be a rather warm day so started trending high
temperatures warmer. Then, surprise, gusty west winds return
Tuesday as yet another upper trough swings through the Desert SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  41  62  42 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         73  44  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  70  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  40
Hobbs                          64  38  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          61  31  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  39  65  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

44/80/44
100
FXUS64 KMAF 191112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
512 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. West winds will gust near 30
kts 18-00Z then diminish later tonight.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the windy conditions
expected for the next several days, particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains...

A stubborn upper low, that has been rotating just north of
the area the last couple days, will finally lift northeast today
with shortwave ridging filling in behind it. Meanwhile, a lee
surface trough will deepen over the TX Panhandle, inducing gusty
west winds today. High winds have already been reported overnight
across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and should continue to
increase through mid afternoon with gusts up to 70 MPH possible. In
addition, high winds are expected to spread to the higher elevations
of the Davis Mountains where gusts up to 60 MPH is possible.
Currently, a High Wind Warning is in affect for these areas through
Friday morning however the Guadalupe Mountains look to maintain high
winds beyond tonight and this warning may need to be extended in
future forecast packages for this location. A Wind Advisory is also
in affect across the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor region for today
however a few locations in the higher elevations of the Delaware
Mountains could reach high wind for a brief period. Elsewhere, west
winds will increase to near 20-25 MPH with gusts near 35 to 40
MPH possible. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue today
with highs warming well into the 60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another windy day as an upper trough quickly passes
to the north. Strong westerly winds on the southern edge of the
system will mix down, enhancing surface winds through the day. As
this system lifts NE into the Central Plains Friday night, another
upper trough will quickly follow, approaching the region Saturday
and yes, bringing more wind! Its position will be farther south than
the previous system, spreading gusty west winds across all areas.
Rain chances remain for Saturday however rainfall amounts could be
very light but temperatures will be slightly cooler. This system
will shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the
area however temperatures will be similar to Saturday with highs
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain elevated
through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short break
through Monday as upper ridging briefly takes over. Monday looks
like it could be a rather warm day so started trending high
temperatures warmer. Then, surprise, gusty west winds return
Tuesday as yet another upper trough swings through the Desert SW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  41  62  42 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         73  44  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  70  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  40
Hobbs                          64  38  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          61  31  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  39  65  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
011
FXUS64 KMAF 190932
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
332 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the windy conditions
expected for the next several days, particularly across the
Guadalupe Mountains...

A stubborn upper low, that has been rotating just north of
the area the last couple days, will finally lift northeast today
with shortwave ridging filling in behind it. Meanwhile, a lee
surface trough will deepen over the TX Panhandle, inducing gusty
west winds today. High winds have already been reported overnight
across portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and should continue to
increase through mid afternoon with gusts up to 70 MPH possible. In
addition, high winds are expected to spread to the higher elevations
of the Davis Mountains where gusts up to 60 MPH is possible.
Currently, a High Wind Warning is in affect for these areas through
Friday morning however the Guadalupe Mountains look to maintain high
winds beyond tonight and this warning may need to be extended in
future forecast packages for this location. A Wind Advisory is also
in affect across the Van Horn/Hwy 54 Corridor region for today
however a few locations in the higher elevations of the Delaware
Mountains could reach high wind for a brief period. Elsewhere, west
winds will increase to near 20-25 MPH with gusts near 35 to 40
MPH possible. Otherwise, the warming trend will continue today
with highs warming well into the 60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another windy day as an upper trough quickly passes
to the north. Strong westerly winds on the southern edge of the
system will mix down, enhancing surface winds through the day. As
this system lifts NE into the Central Plains Friday night, another
upper trough will quickly follow, approaching the region Saturday
and yes, bringing more wind! Its position will be farther south than
the previous system, spreading gusty west winds across all areas.
Rain chances remain for Saturday however rainfall amounts could be
very light but temperatures will be slightly cooler. This system
will shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the
area however temperatures will be similar to Saturday with highs
generally in the upper 50s to low 60s. Winds will remain elevated
through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short break
through Monday as upper ridging briefly takes over. Monday looks
like it could be a rather warm day so started trending high
temperatures warmer. Then, surprise, gusty west winds return
Tuesday as yet another upper trough swings through the Desert SW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     69  43  67  44 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       66  41  62  42 /   0   0  10  20
Dryden                         73  44  73  47 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  69  43  70  45 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 54  36  51  37 /   0   0  10  40
Hobbs                          64  38  60  39 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          61  31  61  33 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           67  43  66  43 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         66  42  65  43 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           67  39  65  42 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...Wind Advisory until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/27
537
FXUS64 KMAF 190433
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1033 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide tonight.  Fog may form late
tonight, but surface winds of 5 to 10kt will provide enough mixing
to keep fog light and will not mention at any terminals.  Southwest
to west winds will increase around 19/15Z, but will rise to 20 to
25kt sustained around 19/18Z, with gusts as high as 35kt.  Winds
will decrease at most terminals by 20/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 520 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

UPDATE...

Issued update to have the High Wind Warning start earlier.

DISCUSSION...

Latest model guidance is showing that high winds will likely start
in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this evening
with winds increasing in the lower elevations on Thursday. The
High Wind Warning is now starting at 00z to account for the
earlier arrival of the high winds.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight, although there is
an outside chance MVFR fog will form at some of the terminals.  Will
leave mention of fog out for now since it appears surface winds will
keep enough mixing going to prevent much fog from developing.
Southwest to west winds will increase at all terminals Thursday
prior to 19/18Z.  Sustained winds of 20 to 25kt, and gusts near
35kt, will be possible at all sites through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  66  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         44  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  54  36  52 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          37  64  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  60  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  67  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  65  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  68  39  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
755
FXUS64 KMAF 182320
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
520 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.UPDATE...

Issued update to have the High Wind Warning start earlier.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Latest model guidance is showing that high winds will likely start
in the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this evening
with winds increasing in the lower elevations on Thursday. The
High Wind Warning is now starting at 00z to account for the
earlier arrival of the high winds.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight, although there is
an outside chance MVFR fog will form at some of the terminals.  Will
leave mention of fog out for now since it appears surface winds will
keep enough mixing going to prevent much fog from developing.
Southwest to west winds will increase at all terminals Thursday
prior to 19/18Z.  Sustained winds of 20 to 25kt, and gusts near
35kt, will be possible at all sites through the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  66  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         44  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  54  36  52 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          37  64  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  60  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  67  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  65  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  68  39  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for Guadalupe Mountains
     of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Friday for
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99
813
FXUS64 KMAF 182031
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
231 PM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...

After a foggy morning, skies have become partly to mostly sunny
this afternoon, with locations across the area on target to hit
high temperatures well into the 50s and 60s, close to normal for
this time of year. As the trough responsible for the cool, damp
weather lifts toward the Great Lakes tomorrow, shortwave ridging
will develop over the region ahead of the next trough across the
western CONUS. At the surface, a lee trough will develop, which
will result in increasing westerly winds and downslope warming,
allowing temperatures tomorrow to climb roughly 10 degrees above
normal areawide, in the 60s and 70s for most locations. A few
spots across higher terrain could see highs in the middle to upper
50s.

The primary concern through the next 7 days will mainly be high
winds, which look to affect the Guadalupe Mountains for most of
the forecast period. Per latest guidance, a prolonged High Wind
event is becoming more likely, lasting from tomorrow morning
potentially into early next week, with greatest impacts expected
across the Guadalupe Mountains where westerly winds could gust to
70 mph. Higher elevations of the Davis Mountains are also
expected to see very windy conditions, with gusts to 60 to 65 mph
possible. While there could be lulls in the windy conditions,
these lulls are expected to be brief, thus have have gone ahead
and upgraded the High Wind Watch on Thursday to a High Wind
Warning, and extended it until 12Z Friday morning. This will
likely wind up extended further in later forecast packages, though
for now, will keep it short and sweet to avoid potential
confusion. The southeastern New Mexico and west Texas plains will
also see windy conditions the next few days, with gusts to 35 to
45 mph possible.

The driving forces behind the expected windy conditions are a
series of troughs progged to pass north of the region, with
increased westerlies at their southern periphery. The
aforementioned western CONUS trough will develop a negative tilt
as it skirts north of the area on Friday, with an accompanying
Pacific front expected to bring slightly cooler temperatures on
Saturday. Models continue to generate precipitation early on
Saturday across the west, gradually shifting east during the
afternoon. Have maintained rain chances at this time, however,
available moisture may be lacking, thus will keep overall QPF on
the low side of guidance. The passing trough will push a weak cold
front through the region on Sunday with little fanfare other than
a cool down to near normal temperatures. Weak ridging will return
on Monday, resulting in another warm up, and a potential lull in
the windy conditions for most of the area. However, another trough
is progged to move from the Four Corners Region into the Plains
on Tuesday, which will see a return to windy to very windy
conditions for most of the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     42  68  43  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       40  66  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         44  73  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  42  70  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  54  36  52 /   0   0   0  20
Hobbs                          37  64  39  60 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          28  60  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  67  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         42  65  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           38  68  39  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 5 AM Thursday to 5 AM MST Friday for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Thursday to 6 AM CST
     /5 AM MST/ Friday for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

49/84
719
FXUS64 KMAF 181723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are dissipating and VFR will prevail this PM. Light fog
is possible Thur AM at MAF/HOB but w/sw winds will attempt to
keep it at bay. Winds will increase quickly between 15Z-18Z Thur
and moreso into the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 515 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR conditions will continue at most locations through 18Z
before improving to VFR. Cannot rule out LIFR briefly forming at
MAF around sunrise but confidence not high enough to place in the
TAF at this time. A return of sub-VFR conditions is not expected
tonight.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The majority of the precip has shifted north of the CWA tonight
however a few patches of light drizzle may linger across some areas
over the next few hours. In addition, areas of patchy fog may
briefly lower visibility slightly but not expecting widespread dense
fog at this time as extensive low cloud cover remains in place. It
looks as though the clouds will be slow to clear through the morning
but the sun is expected to make an appearance by mid day and
temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s most locations.
The upper trough that brought us rain yesterday will finally shift
east by Thursday morning, followed by shortwave ridging before the
next upper system approaches the 4 Corners region Friday. Meanwhile,
a surface trough will develop lee of the Rockies and deepen over
the north TX Panhandle Thursday, inducing gusty west winds
across most areas. Wind speeds look to exceed High Wind criteria
across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains so will go ahead and
issue a High Wind Watch for these locations through the day
Thursday. Will continue to monitor the potential of a Wind
Advisory for portions of the SE NM and W TX plains. The warming
trend will continue into Thursday with highs warming well into the
60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another breezy day as the next upper system moves
through NM. As this system swings NE into the Central Plains Friday
night, the next upper trough will be hot on its heels, approaching
the region Saturday morning. Unfortunately, it looks to bring us
more windy conditions however some good news, it may also bring
our next shot of precip to portions the area. The trough axis will
shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the area
and resulting in a slightly cooler day. Winds will remain
elevated through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short
break through Monday...then gusty west winds return Tuesday as
yet another upper trough moves just north of the CWA. Worth
noting...winds across the Guadalupe Mountains could potentially
hit High Wind criteria during a good portion of the next 7 days!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  41  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  40  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  43  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  35  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  36  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  30  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  40  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$
202
FXUS64 KMAF 181115
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
515 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR conditions will continue at most locations through 18Z
before improving to VFR. Cannot rule out LIFR briefly forming at
MAF around sunrise but confidence not high enough to place in the
TAF at this time. A return of sub-VFR conditions is not expected
tonight.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 353 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The majority of the precip has shifted north of the CWA tonight
however a few patches of light drizzle may linger across some areas
over the next few hours. In addition, areas of patchy fog may
briefly lower visibility slightly but not expecting widespread dense
fog at this time as extensive low cloud cover remains in place. It
looks as though the clouds will be slow to clear through the morning
but the sun is expected to make an appearance by mid day and
temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s most locations.
The upper trough that brought us rain yesterday will finally shift
east by Thursday morning, followed by shortwave ridging before the
next upper system approaches the 4 Corners region Friday. Meanwhile,
a surface trough will develop lee of the Rockies and deepen over
the north TX Panhandle Thursday, inducing gusty west winds
across most areas. Wind speeds look to exceed High Wind criteria
across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains so will go ahead and
issue a High Wind Watch for these locations through the day
Thursday. Will continue to monitor the potential of a Wind
Advisory for portions of the SE NM and W TX plains. The warming
trend will continue into Thursday with highs warming well into the
60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another breezy day as the next upper system moves
through NM. As this system swings NE into the Central Plains Friday
night, the next upper trough will be hot on its heels, approaching
the region Saturday morning. Unfortunately, it looks to bring us
more windy conditions however some good news, it may also bring
our next shot of precip to portions the area. The trough axis will
shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the area
and resulting in a slightly cooler day. Winds will remain
elevated through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short
break through Monday...then gusty west winds return Tuesday as
yet another upper trough moves just north of the CWA. Worth
noting...winds across the Guadalupe Mountains could potentially
hit High Wind criteria during a good portion of the next 7 days!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  41  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  40  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  43  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  35  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  36  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  30  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  40  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/10
946
FXUS64 KMAF 180953
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
353 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The majority of the precip has shifted north of the CWA tonight
however a few patches of light drizzle may linger across some areas
over the next few hours. In addition, areas of patchy fog may
briefly lower visibility slightly but not expecting widespread dense
fog at this time as extensive low cloud cover remains in place. It
looks as though the clouds will be slow to clear through the morning
but the sun is expected to make an appearance by mid day and
temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s most locations.
The upper trough that brought us rain yesterday will finally shift
east by Thursday morning, followed by shortwave ridging before the
next upper system approaches the 4 Corners region Friday. Meanwhile,
a surface trough will develop lee of the Rockies and deepen over
the north TX Panhandle Thursday, inducing gusty west winds
across most areas. Wind speeds look to exceed High Wind criteria
across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains so will go ahead and
issue a High Wind Watch for these locations through the day
Thursday. Will continue to monitor the potential of a Wind
Advisory for portions of the SE NM and W TX plains. The warming
trend will continue into Thursday with highs warming well into the
60s and low 70s.

Friday will be another breezy day as the next upper system moves
through NM. As this system swings NE into the Central Plains Friday
night, the next upper trough will be hot on its heels, approaching
the region Saturday morning. Unfortunately, it looks to bring us
more windy conditions however some good news, it may also bring
our next shot of precip to portions the area. The trough axis will
shift east Sunday morning, dragging a cold front through the area
and resulting in a slightly cooler day. Winds will remain
elevated through Sunday afternoon before finally giving us a short
break through Monday...then gusty west winds return Tuesday as
yet another upper trough moves just north of the CWA. Worth
noting...winds across the Guadalupe Mountains could potentially
hit High Wind criteria during a good portion of the next 7 days!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     58  41  68  43 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       59  40  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         63  43  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  61  43  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 49  35  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          55  36  64  38 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          57  30  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           57  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         57  40  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           59  38  67  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Thursday evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening
     for Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

10/27
602
FXUS64 KMAF 180424
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1024 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR, if not VLIFR, at most area
terminals overnight.  Fog will thicken, but may take most of the
night to form under the low cloud deck.  Low ceilings and fog will
begin to lift/mix out around 18/15Z, with VFR conditions expected
thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 438 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

UPDATE...

Update to add a mix of wintry precipitation to the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  The latest Aviation
Discussion is included too.

DISCUSSION...

Updated forecast to include mention of snow, freezing rain, and
sleet to the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this
evening.  The current temperature in The Bowl has hit freezing with
precipitation currently falling in and near the Guadalupe Mountains.
High resolution models are showing precipitation lingering across
that area into this evening with the passage of the upper trough
over the area with temperatures falling farther. Precipitation
will be light, so little to no accumulation is expected this
evening across this area.  80

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM this evening, while ceilings drop to
IFR at the other area terminals.  Ceilings will probably drop to
LIFR or VLIFR later tonight, and fog will likely drop most terminals
to MVFR.  Expect low clouds and fog to linger through much of
Wednesday morning at most sites.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 100 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

Large upper trough extending from the Canadian border well into
Mexico will develop a closed low over the AZ/NM border.  This low
will slowly slide east the next couple of days as a West Coast
trough pushes it along.  This next trough will reach the 4 corners
region by early Friday moving over NM/TX later that day.

A cold front moved through last night. Temps cooler today in post
frontal conditions with increased clouds cover.  Most of the region
expected to stay in the 40s.  Temps start to recover Wednesday as a
westerly wind sweeps across the area pushing highs into the mid 50s
to lower 60s as sunshine returns.  Even warmer Thursday.

Precip chances return today with showers and a few storms today
moving up from the south that will pass to the north this evening.
Should have another shot at rain this weekend.  Have increased pops
across Lea Co and Northern Permian Basin tonight.  Expect most of
the precip to be north of the area by the time temperatures fall
below freezing but went ahead and threw a mention of mixed precip
northwest after midnight as lows of 30-32 expected. There could be a
brief transition time when temps are low enough for the mix to occur.
Precip should be out of the area by sunrise.

It looks windy Friday and Saturday with a gusty west wind due to an
approaching upper trough before the next cold front blows through
early Sunday.  Will have to monitor high wind potential at GDP these
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  60  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  40  10   0   0
Hobbs                          32  56  36  64 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  40  67 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
966
FXUS64 KMAF 172238
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
438 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Update to add a mix of wintry precipitation to the higher
elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains.  The latest Aviation
Discussion is included too.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Updated forecast to include mention of snow, freezing rain, and
sleet to the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains this
evening.  The current temperature in The Bowl has hit freezing with
precipitation currently falling in and near the Guadalupe Mountains.
High resolution models are showing precipitation lingering across
that area into this evening with the passage of the upper trough
over the area with temperatures falling farther. Precipitation
will be light, so little to no accumulation is expected this
evening across this area.  80

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM this evening, while ceilings drop to
IFR at the other area terminals.  Ceilings will probably drop to
LIFR or VLIFR later tonight, and fog will likely drop most terminals
to MVFR.  Expect low clouds and fog to linger through much of
Wednesday morning at most sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 100 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

Large upper trough extending from the Canadian border well into
Mexico will develop a closed low over the AZ/NM border.  This low
will slowly slide east the next couple of days as a West Coast
trough pushes it along.  This next trough will reach the 4 corners
region by early Friday moving over NM/TX later that day.

A cold front moved through last night. Temps cooler today in post
frontal conditions with increased clouds cover.  Most of the region
expected to stay in the 40s.  Temps start to recover Wednesday as a
westerly wind sweeps across the area pushing highs into the mid 50s
to lower 60s as sunshine returns.  Even warmer Thursday.

Precip chances return today with showers and a few storms today
moving up from the south that will pass to the north this evening.
Should have another shot at rain this weekend.  Have increased pops
across Lea Co and Northern Permian Basin tonight.  Expect most of
the precip to be north of the area by the time temperatures fall
below freezing but went ahead and threw a mention of mixed precip
northwest after midnight as lows of 30-32 expected. There could be a
brief transition time when temps are low enough for the mix to occur.
Precip should be out of the area by sunrise.

It looks windy Friday and Saturday with a gusty west wind due to an
approaching upper trough before the next cold front blows through
early Sunday.  Will have to monitor high wind potential at GDP these
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  60  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  40  10   0   0
Hobbs                          32  56  36  64 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  40  67 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
083
FXUS64 KMAF 171900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
100 PM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Large upper trough extending from the Canadian border well into
Mexico will develop a closed low over the AZ/NM border.  This low
will slowly slide east the next couple of days as a West Coast
trough pushes it along.  This next trough will reach the 4 corners
region by early Friday moving over NM/TX later that day.

A cold front moved through last night. Temps cooler today in post
frontal conditions with increased clouds cover.  Most of the region
expected to stay in the 40s.  Temps start to recover Wednesday as a
westerly wind sweeps across the area pushing highs into the mid 50s
to lower 60s as sunshine returns.  Even warmer Thursday.

Precip chances return today with showers and a few storms today
moving up from the south that will pass to the north this evening.
Should have another shot at rain this weekend.  Have increased pops
across Lea Co and Northern Permian Basin tonight.  Expect most of
the precip to be north of the area by the time temperatures fall
below freezing but went ahead and threw a mention of mixed precip
northwest after midnight as lows of 30-32 expected. There could be a
brief transition time when temps are low enough for the mix to occur.
Precip should be out of the area by sunrise.

It looks windy Friday and Saturday with a gusty west wind due to an
approaching upper trough before the next cold front blows through
early Sunday.  Will have to monitor high wind potential at GDP these
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  60  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  50  10   0   0
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  40  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  40  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  40  10   0   0
Hobbs                          32  56  36  64 /  60  10   0   0
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           34  57  40  67 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                         34  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
799
FXUS64 KMAF 171748
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1148 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and expand in
coverage, thus have included -RA at area terminals, with -TSRA
mention for MAF/FST for the next few hours where confidence is
highest. Will continue to monitor and amend other terminals as
needed. While a mixed bag of MVFR/VFR conditions currently exist,
expect MVFR conditions to expand areawide over the next hour or
two. Conditions will then deteriorate to IFR/LIFR with low
clouds/fog this evening, persisting through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing shot of cooler air has entered the area this morning
bringing a brief return of the cool temps seen this past weekend.
Farther west, an upper low over northwestern Mexico will move
northeast today sending a strong vort max across west Texas near
00Z. The low will increase isentropic lift behind the front but it
is the smaller disturbance rotating around the low that will
increase instability enough to really increase showers and
isolated storms this afternoon and early evening. The rain will
mostly exit the area by midnight so temperatures should be warm
enough that the precipitation type will be all liquid. Any area
that has temperatures fall below freezing tonight will have
already had the precip come to an end. However there could be
some overpasses getting slick with residual water on the roads in
southeastern New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin so
motorists should be aware of this hazard.

Southwest flow ahead of the low will push moisture east of the
area tomorrow but the low will take an additional 24 hours to exit
the area. A mean 500 mb longwave trough will remain across the
western U.S. this week so more disturbances can be expected
moving out of the Pacific and across New Mexico and Texas. The
first will arrive Thursday night with the center passing too far
north to provide our CWA with any rainfall. Another arrives this
weekend and while its track will be to the north as well, this
system will be stronger and could give us a chance for rainfall.
At this time the temperatures appear too warm for any chance of
wintry precip.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     36  58  40  68 /  50  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  62  38  68 /  40  10   0   0
Dryden                         39  64  43  73 /  30  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  62  44  71 /  30   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 31  54  35  55 /  30  10   0   0
Hobbs                          32  56  35  64 /  50  10   0   0
Marfa                          27  58  29  61 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           35  57  40  66 /  50  10   0   0
Odessa                         36  57  39  65 /  50  10   0   0
Wink                           34  61  37  68 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
723
FXUS64 KMAF 171128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
528 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

Patchy areas of low cigs developing this morning, currently
affecting CNM and FST. Low clouds are expected to fill in at other
terminals later today with increasing rain chances. Flight
conditions look to deteriorate after 18/00Z with IFR/LIFR cigs/vis
persisting through Wednesday morning. Otherwise...a few
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening however
did not mention TS in TAF attm given isolated coverage expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 409 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing shot of cooler air has entered the area this morning
bringing a brief return of the cool temps seen this past weekend.
Farther west, an upper low over northwestern Mexico will move
northeast today sending a strong vort max across west Texas near
00Z. The low will increase isentropic lift behind the front but it
is the smaller disturbance rotating around the low that will
increase instability enough to really increase showers and
isolated storms this afternoon and early evening. The rain will
mostly exit the area by midnight so temperatures should be warm
enough that the precipitation type will be all liquid. Any area
that has temperatures fall below freezing tonight will have
already had the precip come to an end. However there could be
some overpasses getting slick with residual water on the roads in
southeastern New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin so
motorists should be aware of this hazard.

Southwest flow ahead of the low will push moisture east of the
area tomorrow but the low will take an additional 24 hours to exit
the area. A mean 500 mb longwave trough will remain across the
western U.S. this week so more disturbances can be expected
moving out of the Pacific and across New Mexico and Texas. The
first will arrive Thursday night with the center passing too far
north to provide our CWA with any rainfall. Another arrives this
weekend and while its track will be to the north as well, this
system will be stronger and could give us a chance for rainfall.
At this time the temperatures appear too warm for any chance of
wintry precip.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  36  58  40 /  50  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       46  32  62  38 /  60  40  10   0
Dryden                         51  39  64  43 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  34  62  44 /  50  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  31  54  35 /  60  30  10   0
Hobbs                          47  32  56  35 /  50  50  10   0
Marfa                          48  27  58  29 /  30  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  35  57  40 /  60  50  10   0
Odessa                         46  36  57  39 /  60  50  10   0
Wink                           48  34  61  37 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10
426
FXUS64 KMAF 171009
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
409 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A reinforcing shot of cooler air has entered the area this morning
bringing a brief return of the cool temps seen this past weekend.
Farther west, an upper low over northwestern Mexico will move
northeast today sending a strong vort max across west Texas near
00Z. The low will increase isentropic lift behind the front but it
is the smaller disturbance rotating around the low that will
increase instability enough to really increase showers and
isolated storms this afternoon and early evening. The rain will
mostly exit the area by midnight so temperatures should be warm
enough that the precipitation type will be all liquid. Any area
that has temperatures fall below freezing tonight will have
already had the precip come to an end. However there could be
some overpasses getting slick with residual water on the roads in
southeastern New Mexico and the far northwestern Permian Basin so
motorists should be aware of this hazard.

Southwest flow ahead of the low will push moisture east of the
area tomorrow but the low will take an additional 24 hours to exit
the area. A mean 500 mb longwave trough will remain across the
western U.S. this week so more disturbances can be expected
moving out of the Pacific and across New Mexico and Texas. The
first will arrive Thursday night with the center passing too far
north to provide our CWA with any rainfall. Another arrives this
weekend and while its track will be to the north as well, this
system will be stronger and could give us a chance for rainfall.
At this time the temperatures appear too warm for any chance of
wintry precip.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  36  58  40 /  50  50  10   0
Carlsbad                       46  32  62  38 /  60  40  10   0
Dryden                         51  39  64  43 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  45  34  62  44 /  50  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 40  31  54  35 /  60  30  10   0
Hobbs                          47  32  56  35 /  50  50  10   0
Marfa                          48  27  58  29 /  30  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  35  57  40 /  60  50  10   0
Odessa                         46  36  57  39 /  60  50  10   0
Wink                           48  34  61  37 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/10
906
FXUS64 KMAF 170413
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1013 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail until a cold front arrives late
tonight/early Tuesday morning, bringing a bout of stratus/fog.
Fropa is hard to pinpoint, as winds will remain fairly light, but
buffer soundings bring stratus into KHOB as soon as 08Z, and
other terminals shortly thereafter. Soundings suggest cigs dropping
to LIFR for a few hours w/initial fropa, then improving
throughout the day to MVFR by late afternoon. Cigs/visibilities
then crater to IFR/LIFR after 00Z. This could happen sooner if the
upper trough speeds up.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the rain to the area has moved off.
Now a secondary trough digging across the 4 corners region will
develop a cut off low along the US/Mex border tomorrow that will
wander northward.  By Thursday this low will also lift NE as the
next upper trough moving over the Intermountain West kicks it out.
A third upper trough follows that one as the pattern remains active.

Its sunny and warmer today with temperatures climbing into the 60s
but a front will move through tonight and knock temps back down into
the 40s tomorrow.  However normal temps return Wednesday and warm
through the end of the week. Looking at a Pacific front blowing
through Saturday... probably be windy.

Will have a low chance of rainshowers returning to the area Tuesday
behind the front and again Saturday.  Many locations received a good
rainfall yesterday... MAF set a daily record with 0.81 inches... Big
Spring had 0.91... McCamey 1.10... Lomax 1.15... and Welch 1.17.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  48  36  59 /   0  30  30  10
Carlsbad                       34  46  33  60 /  10  30  20  10
Dryden                         46  53  41  63 /   0  40  30  10
Fort Stockton                  38  48  36  60 /   0  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 34  40  33  51 /   0  30  20  10
Hobbs                          31  45  33  56 /   0  30  20  10
Marfa                          31  46  28  57 /   0  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           35  48  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Odessa                         36  47  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Wink                           35  49  34  58 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
146
FXUS64 KMAF 162312
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
512 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail until a cold front arrives late
tonight/early Tuesday morning, bringing a bout of stratus/fog.
Fropa is hard to pinpoint, as winds will remain fairly light, but
buffer soundings bring stratus into KHOB as soon as 08Z Tuesday,
and other termianls shortly thereafter. Soundings suggest
cigs/visibility dropping to LIFR for a few hours w/intial fropa,
then improving throughout the day to MVFR by the end of the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the rain to the area has moved off.
Now a secondary trough digging across the 4 corners region will
develop a cut off low along the US/Mex border tomorrow that will
wander northward.  By Thursday this low will also lift NE as the
next upper trough moving over the Intermountain West kicks it out.
A third upper trough follows that one as the pattern remains active.

Its sunny and warmer today with temperatures climbing into the 60s
but a front will move through tonight and knock temps back down into
the 40s tomorrow.  However normal temps return Wednesday and warm
through the end of the week. Looking at a Pacific front blowing
through Saturday... probably be windy.

Will have a low chance of rainshowers returning to the area Tuesday
behind the front and again Saturday.  Many locations received a good
rainfall yesterday... MAF set a daily record with 0.81 inches... Big
Spring had 0.91... McCamey 1.10... Lomax 1.15... and Welch 1.17.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  48  36  59 /   0  30  30  10
Carlsbad                       34  46  33  60 /  10  30  20  10
Dryden                         46  53  41  63 /   0  40  30  10
Fort Stockton                  38  48  36  60 /   0  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 34  40  33  51 /   0  30  20  10
Hobbs                          31  45  33  56 /   0  30  20  10
Marfa                          31  46  28  57 /   0  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           35  48  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Odessa                         36  47  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Wink                           35  49  34  58 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/80/44
608
FXUS64 KMAF 162002
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
202 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the rain to the area has moved off.
Now a secondary trough digging across the 4 corners region will
develop a cut off low along the US/Mex border tomorrow that will
wander northward.  By Thursday this low will also lift NE as the
next upper trough moving over the Intermountain West kicks it out.
A third upper trough follows that one as the pattern remains active.

Its sunny and warmer today with temperatures climbing into the 60s
but a front will move through tonight and knock temps back down into
the 40s tomorrow.  However normal temps return Wednesday and warm
through the end of the week. Looking at a Pacific front blowing
through Saturday... probably be windy.

Will have a low chance of rainshowers returning to the area Tuesday
behind the front and again Saturday.  Many locations received a good
rainfall yesterday... MAF set a daily record with 0.81 inches... Big
Spring had 0.91... McCamey 1.10... Lomax 1.15... and Welch 1.17.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     34  48  36  59 /   0  30  30  10
Carlsbad                       34  46  33  60 /  10  30  20  10
Dryden                         46  53  41  63 /   0  40  30  10
Fort Stockton                  38  48  36  60 /   0  30  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 34  40  33  51 /   0  30  20  10
Hobbs                          31  45  33  56 /   0  30  20  10
Marfa                          31  46  28  57 /   0  30  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           35  48  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Odessa                         36  47  36  58 /   0  30  30  10
Wink                           35  49  34  58 /   0  30  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72
597
FXUS64 KMAF 161755
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1155 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail into tonight, however, late this
evening, a cold front will begin to move into the area. The front
will be accompanied by a northeasterly wind shift, and is expected
first at CNM/HOB around 04-06Z. MVFR ceilings will lag behind the
front by several hours, but should gradually overspread the area
by Friday morning. Fog may also develop, though have only included
mention at CNM/HOB where confidence is highest. Prior to the
front, southwesterly winds around 12kt or less will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

The upper low that brought thunderstorms to the area yesterday has
lifted into the Plains this morning. Low level moisture remains in
place however and is combining with light winds to produce fog,
some dense, across northern parts of the region. Fog will begin
to mix out later this morning as the sun works on it and westerly
winds pick up. Look for mostly sunny skies by afternoon across
most of the area with highs climbing back to near normal. An upper
trough will lag back to our west behind the main system over the
Plains. This will bring another chance for showers Tuesday along
with cooler temperatures behind a cold front. The upper trough
really doesn`t leave the area until it gets kicked out by another
system Thursday. After Tuesday much of the precipitation
associated with this trough will remain east of our area. High
temperatures will slowly moderate back above normal by late week.

As we head into the weekend, models indicate an intense upper jet
will streak across the western U.S. and into our area. This system
looks to bring strong winds for possibly a lengthy period of time,
but models disagree on timing. We could also see another chance
of rain across portions of the area. Once the system moves by,
temperatures will cool and drier air will filter in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  50  38  59 /   0  20  30  10
Carlsbad                       36  48  36  59 /  10  20  20  10
Dryden                         46  54  43  62 /   0  30  30  10
Fort Stockton                  38  50  38  60 /   0  20  30  10
Guadalupe Pass                 34  42  35  51 /   0  20  20  10
Hobbs                          32  47  35  56 /   0  20  20  10
Marfa                          32  49  32  57 /   0  20  20  10
Midland Intl Airport           35  50  38  58 /   0  20  30  10
Odessa                         36  49  38  58 /   0  20  30  10
Wink                           35  50  36  58 /   0  20  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
518
FXUS64 KMAF 161011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
411 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR, if not VILFR, visibility in fog may affect KCNM and KHOB thru
16/15Z, with perhaps MVFR at KINK and KMAF.  Westerly surface
winds and heating will likely help dissipate the fog by 16/16Z, or
shortly thereafter.  Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
areawide through tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017/

The upper low that brought thunderstorms to the area yesterday has
lifted into the Plains this morning. Low level moisture remains in
place however and is combining with light winds to produce fog,
some dense, across northern parts of the region. Fog will begin
to mix out later this morning as the sun works on it and westerly
winds pick up. Look for mostly sunny skies by afternoon across
most of the area with highs climbing back to near normal. An upper
trough will lag back to our west behind the main system over the
Plains. This will bring another chance for showers Tuesday along
with cooler temperatures behind a cold front. The upper trough
really doesn`t leave the area until it gets kicked out by another
system Thursday. After Tuesday much of the precipitation
associated with this trough will remain east of our area. High
temperatures will slowly moderate back above normal by late week.

As we head into the weekend, models indicate an intense upper jet
will streak across the western U.S. and into our area. This system
looks to bring strong winds for possibly a lengthy period of time,
but models disagree on timing. We could also see another chance
of rain across portions of the area. Once the system moves by,
temperatures will cool and drier air will filter in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  35  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Carlsbad                       60  36  48  36 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         70  46  54  43 /   0   0  30  30
Fort Stockton                  65  38  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 51  34  42  35 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          57  32  47  35 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          59  32  49  32 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           61  35  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         61  36  49  38 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           61  35  50  36 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
918
FXUS64 KMAF 160802
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
202 AM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The upper low that brought thunderstorms to the area yesterday has
lifted into the Plains this morning. Low level moisture remains in
place however and is combining with light winds to produce fog,
some dense, across northern parts of the region. Fog will begin
to mix out later this morning as the sun works on it and westerly
winds pick up. Look for mostly sunny skies by afternoon across
most of the area with highs climbing back to near normal. An upper
trough will lag back to our west behind the main system over the
Plains. This will bring another chance for showers Tuesday along
with cooler temperatures behind a cold front. The upper trough
really doesn`t leave the area until it gets kicked out by another
system Thursday. After Tuesday much of the precipitation
associated with this trough will remain east of our area. High
temperatures will slowly moderate back above normal by late week.

As we head into the weekend, models indicate an intense upper jet
will streak across the western U.S. and into our area. This system
looks to bring strong winds for possibly a lengthy period of time,
but models disagree on timing. We could also see another chance
of rain across portions of the area. Once the system moves by,
temperatures will cool and drier air will filter in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  35  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Carlsbad                       60  36  48  36 /   0  10  20  20
Dryden                         70  46  54  43 /   0   0  30  30
Fort Stockton                  65  38  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 51  34  42  35 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          57  32  47  35 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          59  32  49  32 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           61  35  50  38 /   0   0  20  30
Odessa                         61  36  49  38 /   0   0  20  30
Wink                           61  35  50  36 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/29
910
FXUS64 KMAF 160426
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1026 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Latest obs/radar/satellite imagery shows precip has cleared West
texas and Southeast new Mexico, and latest models suggest no
wraparound/redevelopment overnight. We`ll do a quick update to
remove rain chances, and update other parameters as necessary.
Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough now ejecting NE thru the S.
Plains, having scoured all terminals to VFR except maybe KHOB. No
obs for KHOB are available, but last obs had LIFR cigs. Otherwise,
all other terminals should keep VFR cigs next 24 hours. Sfc flow
should remain SW-W thru 00Z Tue, after which light return flow
develops. The only wild card overnight will be fog development.
For now, we`ll continue a mention of MVFR visibilities around
sunrise KMAF/KHOB/KINK, and update as needed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/44
205
FXUS64 KMAF 160335
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough now ejecting NE thru the S.
Plains, having scoured all terminals to VFR except maybe KHOB. No
obs for KHOB are available, but last obs had LIFR cigs. Otherwise,
all other terminals should keep VFR cigs next 24 hours. Sfc flow
should remain SW-W thru 00Z Tue, after which light return flow
develops. The only wild card overnight will be fog development.
For now, we`ll continue a mention of MVFR visibilities around
sunrise KMAF/KHOB/KINK, and update as needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

44/84/44
944
FXUS64 KMAF 160306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
906 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.UPDATE...

Updated to cancel the High Wind Warning, and also removed mention
of thunder for the rest of the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Winds across the Guadalupe Mountains have dropped below High Wind
Warning criteria, and are expected to continue to diminish
overnight tonight. Thus, have gone ahead and canceled the High
Wind Warning that was in effect. Also, as the upper low
responsible for the active weather today continues to lift to the
northeast, the threat of thunderstorms has shifted well to the
east of the area this evening, thus ending the potential for
thunderstorms through tonight. A few showers remain possible,
particularly across northern portions of the forecast area, but
additional rain amounts will be light.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 509 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM, ushering in
dryer air as westerly sfc flow sets in. Skies are rapidly
improving behind the main band of convection, which has cleared
all terminals. Worst case scenario looks to be possible
redevelopment of MVFR cigs overnight KMAF/KCNM/KINK, and maybe IFR
KHOB. Bigger question will be fog development, and forecast
soundings develop it at KHOB, KINK, and KMAF near sunrise.
W/westerly flow, this will be questionable, and we`ll keep
visibilities at MVFR or better for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
553
FXUS64 KMAF 152309
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
509 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough centered over SE NM, ushering in
dryer air as westerly sfc flow sets in. Skies are rapidly
improving behind the main band of convection, which has cleared
all terminals. Worst case scenario looks to be possible
redevelopment of MVFR cigs overnight KMAF/KCNM/KINK, and maybe IFR
KHOB. Bigger question will be fog development, and forecast
soundings develop it at KHOB, KINK, and KMAF near sunrise.
W/westerly flow, this will be questionable, and we`ll keep
visibilities at MVFR or better for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

44/84/44
816
FXUS64 KMAF 152011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Have an upper low swinging over the area today with a secondary
trough staying back to the west.  This next trough will dig
southward to Mexico before moving across the area later in the week
as a West Coast trough kicks it east.  This pattern should give us
another shot at some rainfall for the coming week.

Widespread cloud cover over the region will be on the decrease this
evening and Monday as a Pacific front pushes through.  At 19z the
upper low can be seen on satellite SE of ELP.  The Pacific front
should push west later today with a polar front moving down into the
region late Monday/early Tuesday.

The severe wx threat today should be ending this afternoon as a line
of storms over the region moves east.  Will leave low pops in
tonight mainly east for any lingering precip.  Do have some showers
in the forecast mid week with the next upper trough.  High wind
still possible in the Guadalupe Mtns this evening in the wake of the
upper low and Pacific front... will leave the warning in effect
through 11pm mst.

Temperatures have warmed today as the warm front lifts northward but
the northern counties remain cold in the 30s.  Looking for another
cold night with lows in the 30s over most of the region but Monday
temperatures should warm above normal as 60s return.  Tuesday will
be cooler but the rest of the week should be above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  61  36  55 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  59  34  52 /  20   0  10   0
Dryden                         44  69  46  59 /  20   0  10  30
Fort Stockton                  40  65  38  57 /  10   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 34  50  34  48 /  20   0  10   0
Hobbs                          33  56  31  53 /  20   0  10   0
Marfa                          27  58  30  55 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           37  61  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  55 /  20   0   0  10
Wink                           36  62  34  56 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

49/72
105
FXUS64 KMAF 151735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1135 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Warm front is lifting n and winds will turn se in its wake with
improving CIGS/VSBY. TSRA were from around HOB to MAF to FST
moving n at 40kt while the area is moving ne. Some strong to
possibly severe TSRA are possible. Consensus is that front is
expected to e of MAF/FST between 21Z- 22Z. Have TEMPO groups in
TAF sites til then. CIGS/VSBY will afterwards. but fog may settle
back in Mon AM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 505 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms have broken up the LIFR visibility and
ceilings at area terminals somewhat.  The lower ceilings, and
visibility, may set back in through 15/15Z, but will carry mainly
MVFR ceilings, with temporary lower conditions.  Expect additional
thunderstorms to develop and spread west to east over the forecast
area.  Ceilings will lift, but gusts of 45kt or greater could occur
with TSRA. winds will veer to the southwest and increase after
thunderstorms pass by.  Expect VFR conditions areawide tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

.Severe storms and heavy rain possible across the area today...

Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the
Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin.
First I`ll take on the freezing rain. Isentropic upglide continues
within the cold air north of a front that is currently along the
Rio Grande. This cold air has been stubborn to erode and models
have handled it very poorly. The saving grace this morning is that
dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
Also, rain is falling through a very thick warm layer aloft and
helping to warm temperatures even more. We didn`t see many issues
Saturday morning and don`t anticipate any today. That being said,
a few slick spots could still develop on bridges and overpasses
from Lamesa to Snyder. Dense fog has also lasted into the early
morning, but is beginning to let up as rain continues to
increase.

Next up is the severe weather threat. The upper low causing all the
fun this morning has begun to lift northeast and will move directly
over our area today. Strong storms and heavy rain are moving slowly
east across the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. This initial wave
of rain will move into the Permian Basin through the morning and
remain elevated with heavy rain being the main threat. Later this
morning, a surface low will develop near Pecos and a warm front
will lift north across the Permian Basin. This will bring moist,
unstable air into the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area
by early afternoon. Meanwhile, strong bulk shear will support
organized convection including supercells. Additional storms will
likely develop late this morning over the higher terrain along a
cold front. These storms will lift into the unstable airmass and
be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado is not out of the question especially across the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where low level shear is
greatest. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms and may cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper low will shift into the Plains Monday as a secondary upper
trough lags behind to our west. This will likely keep
temperatures near normal across the area into midweek. A few
showers will also be possible especially across the southern
portions of the region. Another storm system will begin to affect
the area late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  59  36  57 /  30   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       37  58  34  56 /  20   0  10  10
Dryden                         44  69  45  61 /  10   0  10  20
Fort Stockton                  40  63  39  59 /  10   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 35  50  34  50 /  20   0  10  10
Hobbs                          33  56  31  55 /  20   0  10  10
Marfa                          29  58  30  57 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           38  60  35  57 /  20   0   0  10
Odessa                         37  60  35  57 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           36  60  34  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
109
FXUS64 KMAF 151105
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
505 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms have broken up the LIFR visibility and
ceilings at area terminals somewhat.  The lower ceilings, and
visibility, may set back in through 15/15Z, but will carry mainly
MVFR ceilings, with temporary lower conditions.  Expect additional
thunderstorms to develop and spread west to east over the forecast
area.  Ceilings will lift, but gusts of 45kt or greater could occur
with TSRA. winds will veer to the southwest and increase after
thunderstorms pass by.  Expect VFR conditions areawide tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 413 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017/

..Severe storms and heavy rain possible across the area today...

Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the
Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin.
First I`ll take on the freezing rain. Isentropic upglide continues
within the cold air north of a front that is currently along the
Rio Grande. This cold air has been stubborn to erode and models
have handled it very poorly. The saving grace this morning is that
dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
Also, rain is falling through a very thick warm layer aloft and
helping to warm temperatures even more. We didn`t see many issues
Saturday morning and don`t anticipate any today. That being said,
a few slick spots could still develop on bridges and overpasses
from Lamesa to Snyder. Dense fog has also lasted into the early
morning, but is beginning to let up as rain continues to
increase.

Next up is the severe weather threat. The upper low causing all the
fun this morning has begun to lift northeast and will move directly
over our area today. Strong storms and heavy rain are moving slowly
east across the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. This initial wave
of rain will move into the Permian Basin through the morning and
remain elevated with heavy rain being the main threat. Later this
morning, a surface low will develop near Pecos and a warm front
will lift north across the Permian Basin. This will bring moist,
unstable air into the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area
by early afternoon. Meanwhile, strong bulk shear will support
organized convection including supercells. Additional storms will
likely develop late this morning over the higher terrain along a
cold front. These storms will lift into the unstable airmass and
be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado is not out of the question especially across the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where low level shear is
greatest. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms and may cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper low will shift into the Plains Monday as a secondary upper
trough lags behind to our west. This will likely keep
temperatures near normal across the area into midweek. A few
showers will also be possible especially across the southern
portions of the region. Another storm system will begin to affect
the area late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  37  59  36 / 100  30   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  37  58  34 /  90  20   0  10
Dryden                         71  44  69  45 /  70  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  65  40  63  39 /  80  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  35  50  34 /  90  20   0  10
Hobbs                          40  33  56  31 / 100  20   0  10
Marfa                          58  29  58  30 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  38  60  35 / 100  20   0   0
Odessa                         53  37  60  35 / 100  10   0   0
Wink                           51  36  60  34 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/29
647
FXUS64 KMAF 151013
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
413 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Severe storms and heavy rain possible across the area today...

Quite a bit going on this morning with strong storms along the
Pecos River and freezing rain across the northern Permian Basin.
First I`ll take on the freezing rain. Isentropic upglide continues
within the cold air north of a front that is currently along the
Rio Grande. This cold air has been stubborn to erode and models
have handled it very poorly. The saving grace this morning is that
dewpoints and surface temperatures are much closer to freezing.
Also, rain is falling through a very thick warm layer aloft and
helping to warm temperatures even more. We didn`t see many issues
Saturday morning and don`t anticipate any today. That being said,
a few slick spots could still develop on bridges and overpasses
from Lamesa to Snyder. Dense fog has also lasted into the early
morning, but is beginning to let up as rain continues to
increase.

Next up is the severe weather threat. The upper low causing all the
fun this morning has begun to lift northeast and will move directly
over our area today. Strong storms and heavy rain are moving slowly
east across the Upper Trans Pecos this morning. This initial wave
of rain will move into the Permian Basin through the morning and
remain elevated with heavy rain being the main threat. Later this
morning, a surface low will develop near Pecos and a warm front
will lift north across the Permian Basin. This will bring moist,
unstable air into the Lower Trans Pecos and southern Permian
Basin. MLCAPE values near 1500 J/kg will be possible in this area
by early afternoon. Meanwhile, strong bulk shear will support
organized convection including supercells. Additional storms will
likely develop late this morning over the higher terrain along a
cold front. These storms will lift into the unstable airmass and
be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. An isolated
tornado is not out of the question especially across the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos where low level shear is
greatest. Heavy rain will also accompany the storms and may cause
localized flash flooding.

The upper low will shift into the Plains Monday as a secondary upper
trough lags behind to our west. This will likely keep
temperatures near normal across the area into midweek. A few
showers will also be possible especially across the southern
portions of the region. Another storm system will begin to affect
the area late in the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     51  37  59  36 / 100  30   0   0
Carlsbad                       50  37  58  34 /  90  20   0  10
Dryden                         71  44  69  45 /  70  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  65  40  63  39 /  80  10   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 46  35  50  34 /  90  20   0  10
Hobbs                          40  33  56  31 / 100  20   0  10
Marfa                          58  29  58  30 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           54  38  60  35 / 100  20   0   0
Odessa                         53  37  60  35 / 100  10   0   0
Wink                           51  36  60  34 /  90  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

67/29
063
FXUS64 KMAF 150447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1047 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR to VLIFR conditions in low clouds/fog are expected to
continue areawide through early afternoon Sunday. Intermittent
light rain will continue overnight, with a couple isolated
thunderstorms that could affect PEQ and INK within the first
few hours of the forecast period. There is a better chance of
thunderstorms beginning Sunday morning across the west and moving
east through the afternoon, though have not included mention at
this time. Winds will be E/SE around 10-15kt with higher gusts
until Sunday afternoon when they shift to the SW, with gusts to
around 25kt possible. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR
areawide by 16/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 559 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

UPDATE...

Patchy dense fog is occurring across the Permian Basin and
Southeast New Mexico, with the dense fog expected to expand
through the evening hours. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued
for this evening through a portion of the overnight hours, though
an extension may be required if trends continue late tonight into
early Sunday. Visibility across Southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin could drop below 1/4 mile at times, thus anyone
planning to travel will need to be cautious and allow extra time
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over Baja this morning will swing east today... cross the
Rio Grande on Sunday... then move into OK by Monday morning.  A
secondary trough back to the west will develop a closed low over
Mexico that will move through Thursday ahead of a West Coast trough
that moves through Friday.

The front that had been hanging over the center of the area pushed
to the Rio Grande last night.  This front will return north Sunday.
Precipitation today ranged from light drizzle... to rain showers...
to freezing rain... to thunderstorms.  Have mention of rain/freezing
rain over the NE counties once again tonight as temps there should
remain below freezing.  QPF shows the heavier rain starting west and
moving across the area Sunday... have potential for locally heavy
rain and some flash flooding.  The upper low will push a Pacific
front through the area Sunday with wind coming around to the west.
A cold front moves down into the area late Monday.

Latest SPC day1 has a marginal risk of severe storms over the
western counties... this location is a shift westward from previous
days... but the sun is breaking out in this area and temps are
climbing.  Still have a slight risk severe eastern part of area
Sunday.  Also looking at an expected high wind event Sunday in the
Guadalupes as upper low swings over.  Will have a Pacific front
sweeping across with a west wind and a 700mb wind of 40kts.
Preparing to issue a High Wind Warning for tomorrow from 18z to 06z.

Have widespread over the area and fog north today... cold with
afternoon temps in the 30s for much of the area but guidance tries
warming temps overnight.  Current lows tonight under guidance which
seems right.  Temperatures should return to near normal Sunday with
next week looking mild with temperatures warming into the 60s

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  56  38  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       35  53  37  59 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  70  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  66  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  48  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  57 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          42  56  27  59 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  57  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  56  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  58  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Sunday for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-
     Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
805
FXUS64 KMAF 142359
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Patchy dense fog is occurring across the Permian Basin and
Southeast New Mexico, with the dense fog expected to expand
through the evening hours. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued
for this evening through a portion of the overnight hours, though
an extension may be required if trends continue late tonight into
early Sunday. Visibility across Southeast New Mexico and the
Permian Basin could drop below 1/4 mile at times, thus anyone
planning to travel will need to be cautious and allow extra time
tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR/LIFR conditions in low stratus/fog prevail areawide, with
VLIFR currently affecting HOB. Do not expect improvement through
Sunday morning, with intermittent light rain affecting all
terminals. While there could be a thunderstorm or two through
tonight, confidence was too low to include mention. A better
chance of thunderstorms is expected Sunday, beginning across the
west during the morning and moving eastward through the afternoon,
though have not included TSRA mention at this time due to
uncertainty in timing/location. Winds will vary from NE to SE
around 10-15kt with higher gusts through much of the period,
though after 18Z Sunday, winds are expected to shift to the SW,
remaining gusty. A return to MVFR and possibly VFR conditions is
expected late in the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 137 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over Baja this morning will swing east today... cross the
Rio Grande on Sunday... then move into OK by Monday morning.  A
secondary trough back to the west will develop a closed low over
Mexico that will move through Thursday ahead of a West Coast trough
that moves through Friday.

The front that had been hanging over the center of the area pushed
to the Rio Grande last night.  This front will return north Sunday.
Precipitation today ranged from light drizzle... to rain showers...
to freezing rain... to thunderstorms.  Have mention of rain/freezing
rain over the NE counties once again tonight as temps there should
remain below freezing.  QPF shows the heavier rain starting west and
moving across the area Sunday... have potential for locally heavy
rain and some flash flooding.  The upper low will push a Pacific
front through the area Sunday with wind coming around to the west.
A cold front moves down into the area late Monday.

Latest SPC day1 has a marginal risk of severe storms over the
western counties... this location is a shift westward from previous
days... but the sun is breaking out in this area and temps are
climbing.  Still have a slight risk severe eastern part of area
Sunday.  Also looking at an expected high wind event Sunday in the
Guadalupes as upper low swings over.  Will have a Pacific front
sweeping across with a west wind and a 700mb wind of 40kts.
Preparing to issue a High Wind Warning for tomorrow from 18z to 06z.

Have widespread over the area and fog north today... cold with
afternoon temps in the 30s for much of the area but guidance tries
warming temps overnight.  Current lows tonight under guidance which
seems right.  Temperatures should return to near normal Sunday with
next week looking mild with temperatures warming into the 60s

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  56  38  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       35  53  37  59 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  70  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  66  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  48  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  57 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          42  56  27  59 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  57  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  56  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  58  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Dense Fog Advisory until 3 AM MST Sunday for Central Lea County-
     Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-
     Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST /3 AM MST/ Sunday for Andrews-
     Borden-Crane-Dawson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
     Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-Reagan-
     Scurry-Upton-Ward-Winkler.

     High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
060
FXUS64 KMAF 141937
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
137 PM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low over Baja this morning will swing east today... cross the
Rio Grande on Sunday... then move into OK by Monday morning.  A
secondary trough back to the west will develop a closed low over
Mexico that will move through Thursday ahead of a West Coast trough
that moves through Friday.

The front that had been hanging over the center of the area pushed
to the Rio Grande last night.  This front will return north Sunday.
Precipitation today ranged from light drizzle... to rain showers...
to freezing rain... to thunderstorms.  Have mention of rain/freezing
rain over the NE counties once again tonight as temps there should
remain below freezing.  QPF shows the heavier rain starting west and
moving across the area Sunday... have potential for locally heavy
rain and some flash flooding.  The upper low will push a Pacific
front through the area Sunday with wind coming around to the west.
A cold front moves down into the area late Monday.

Latest SPC day1 has a marginal risk of severe storms over the
western counties... this location is a shift westward from previous
days... but the sun is breaking out in this area and temps are
climbing.  Still have a slight risk severe eastern part of area
Sunday.  Also looking at an expected high wind event Sunday in the
Guadalupes as upper low swings over.  Will have a Pacific front
sweeping across with a west wind and a 700mb wind of 40kts.
Preparing to issue a High Wind Warning for tomorrow from 18z to 06z.

Have widespread over the area and fog north today... cold with
afternoon temps in the 30s for much of the area but guidance tries
warming temps overnight.  Current lows tonight under guidance which
seems right.  Temperatures should return to near normal Sunday with
next week looking mild with temperatures warming into the 60s

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  56  38  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       35  53  37  59 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  70  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  46  66  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  48  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  57 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          42  56  27  59 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  57  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  56  38  61 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  58  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM MST Sunday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

05/72
856
FXUS64 KMAF 141724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1124 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR and occasional LIFR conditions are expected across southwest
Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals through tonight. Ceilings
and visibility will begin to improve from west to east as a
Pacific cold front enters southeast New Mexico Sunday morning.

Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible through Saturday
morning with mainly light rain through tonight. Thunderstorms will
increase Saturday morning.

Winds will be generally northeast to east at less than 12 knots
through tonight. Southeast winds will begin to increase at FST
this evening and other terminals after 12Z. Wind gusts to 25 knots
are possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 507 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

LIFR AND VLIFR ceilings will affect most area terminals through
14/18Z, with LIFR conditions likely persisting through the
afternoon.  In addition, light rain and fog will make visibility
just as low at most terminals through the morning.  Thunderstorms
will be possible at all area terminals today and tonight. Will
not include mention at any specific terminal, but the lower
ceiling and visibility may be temporarily interrupted by TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

.Freezing rain falling across parts of the area this morning
and then a severe weather threat tonight and Sunday...

Looking at a very complicated event unfolding across the area this
morning. Freezing rain is likely forming a glaze on elevated
surfaces across the northeastern portion of the Permian Basin.
Hi- res models like the HRRR and NAM 4KM are handling the current
situation the best. These models show temperatures hovering
around or just below freezing through this morning with periodic
showers. We issued a Freezing Rain Advisory earlier this morning
and will keep it going through Noon today. By that time it
appears temperatures should rise above freezing and precipitation
should transition to all rain.

Models continue to handle the cold air poorly with the GFS being the
furthest off. Will mostly stick with the NAM and the higher
resolution models through much of the weekend. The well advertised
upper low has shifted south into northern Baja this morning and
will move east today. Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of the
system and isentropic lift over the cold airmass will help generate
showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Temperatures will
struggle again this afternoon and will not rise much from where they
are right now. Unfortunately the hi-res models have temperatures
falling to near freezing again tonight across the same areas as
this morning. Will continue to monitor, but we believe as heavier
rain develops and falls through very warm air aloft, surface
temperatures will actually warm.

Attention then turns to the severe weather potential as the upper
system begins to lift north and near our region. A strong LLJ will
develop later tonight as a mid level speed max moves across the Rio
Grande. Western portions of the region will be near the exit region
of this jet helping to increase ascent. It doesn`t matter much
whether storms become surface based or are elevated, the
potential will be there for large hail and gusty winds.
Thunderstorms will increase during the day Sunday as the upper low
moves directly over the region. A 50 kt LLJ will maintain rich
Gulf moisture, but clouds and precip will limit destabilization.
The cold front that has settled across the Rio Grande will likely
begin to lift north as a warm front Sunday. SBCAPE values will near
1500 J/kg south of the front while at the same time the exit
region of a mid level jet helps enhance large-scale ascent. Deep
layer shear will also contribute to an environment that would
support large hail and damaging winds. Storm mode will likely
become linear as convection moves east across the CWA. Heavy rain
may also cause localized flooding as PWAT values rise to near
record levels for mid January.

The upper low shifts into the Plains early next week, but an upper
trough is expected to lag behind to our west. This will keep
temperatures near normal while dry air also filters in from the
northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     37  57  39  60 /  60  80  30   0
Carlsbad                       37  54  38  58 /  80  80  20  10
Dryden                         60  71  44  69 /  50  60  10   0
Fort Stockton                  47  63  41  64 /  50  70  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  47  34  50 /  70  80  20  10
Hobbs                          35  52  33  56 /  80  90  20   0
Marfa                          45  56  29  58 /  50  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           39  58  40  60 /  60  80  20   0
Odessa                         39  57  40  60 /  60  80  20   0
Wink                           41  59  36  60 /  70  80  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

     Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Howard-
     Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

99/99/05
736
FXUS64 KMAF 141107
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
507 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

LIFR AND VLIFR ceilings will affect most area terminals through
14/18Z, with LIFR conditions likely persisting through the
afternoon.  In addition, light rain and fog will make visibility
just as low at most terminals through the morning.  Thunderstorms
will be possible at all area terminals today and tonight. Will
not include mention at any specific terminal, but the lower
ceiling and visibility may be temporarily interrupted by TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 420 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

..Freezing rain falling across parts of the area this morning
and then a severe weather threat tonight and Sunday...

Looking at a very complicated event unfolding across the area this
morning. Freezing rain is likely forming a glaze on elevated
surfaces across the northeastern portion of the Permian Basin.
Hi- res models like the HRRR and NAM 4KM are handling the current
situation the best. These models show temperatures hovering
around or just below freezing through this morning with periodic
showers. We issued a Freezing Rain Advisory earlier this morning
and will keep it going through Noon today. By that time it
appears temperatures should rise above freezing and precipitation
should transition to all rain.

Models continue to handle the cold air poorly with the GFS being the
furthest off. Will mostly stick with the NAM and the higher
resolution models through much of the weekend. The well advertised
upper low has shifted south into northern Baja this morning and
will move east today. Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of the
system and isentropic lift over the cold airmass will help generate
showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Temperatures will
struggle again this afternoon and will not rise much from where they
are right now. Unfortunately the hi-res models have temperatures
falling to near freezing again tonight across the same areas as
this morning. Will continue to monitor, but we believe as heavier
rain develops and falls through very warm air aloft, surface
temperatures will actually warm.

Attention then turns to the severe weather potential as the upper
system begins to lift north and near our region. A strong LLJ will
develop later tonight as a mid level speed max moves across the Rio
Grande. Western portions of the region will be near the exit region
of this jet helping to increase ascent. It doesn`t matter much
whether storms become surface based or are elevated, the
potential will be there for large hail and gusty winds.
Thunderstorms will increase during the day Sunday as the upper low
moves directly over the region. A 50 kt LLJ will maintain rich
Gulf moisture, but clouds and precip will limit destabilization.
The cold front that has settled across the Rio Grande will likely
begin to lift north as a warm front Sunday. SBCAPE values will near
1500 J/kg south of the front while at the same time the exit
region of a mid level jet helps enhance large-scale ascent. Deep
layer shear will also contribute to an environment that would
support large hail and damaging winds. Storm mode will likely
become linear as convection moves east across the CWA. Heavy rain
may also cause localized flooding as PWAT values rise to near
record levels for mid January.

The upper low shifts into the Plains early next week, but an upper
trough is expected to lag behind to our west. This will keep
temperatures near normal while dry air also filters in from the
northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  37  57  39 /  70  60  80  30
Carlsbad                       45  37  54  38 /  60  80  80  20
Dryden                         68  60  71  44 /  50  50  60  10
Fort Stockton                  47  47  63  41 /  60  50  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 43  36  47  34 /  50  70  80  20
Hobbs                          42  35  52  33 /  70  80  90  20
Marfa                          59  45  56  29 /  50  50  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           41  39  58  40 /  70  60  80  20
Odessa                         40  39  57  40 /  70  60  80  20
Wink                           44  41  59  36 /  70  70  80  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

67/29
175
FXUS64 KMAF 141020
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
420 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Freezing rain falling across parts of the area this morning
and then a severe weather threat tonight and Sunday...

Looking at a very complicated event unfolding across the area this
morning. Freezing rain is likely forming a glaze on elevated
surfaces across the northeastern portion of the Permian Basin.
Hi- res models like the HRRR and NAM 4KM are handling the current
situation the best. These models show temperatures hovering
around or just below freezing through this morning with periodic
showers. We issued a Freezing Rain Advisory earlier this morning
and will keep it going through Noon today. By that time it
appears temperatures should rise above freezing and precipitation
should transition to all rain.

Models continue to handle the cold air poorly with the GFS being the
furthest off. Will mostly stick with the NAM and the higher
resolution models through much of the weekend. The well advertised
upper low has shifted south into northern Baja this morning and
will move east today. Increasing SW flow aloft ahead of the
system and isentropic lift over the cold airmass will help generate
showers and a few thunderstorms later today. Temperatures will
struggle again this afternoon and will not rise much from where they
are right now. Unfortunately the hi-res models have temperatures
falling to near freezing again tonight across the same areas as
this morning. Will continue to monitor, but we believe as heavier
rain develops and falls through very warm air aloft, surface
temperatures will actually warm.

Attention then turns to the severe weather potential as the upper
system begins to lift north and near our region. A strong LLJ will
develop later tonight as a mid level speed max moves across the Rio
Grande. Western portions of the region will be near the exit region
of this jet helping to increase ascent. It doesn`t matter much
whether storms become surface based or are elevated, the
potential will be there for large hail and gusty winds.
Thunderstorms will increase during the day Sunday as the upper low
moves directly over the region. A 50 kt LLJ will maintain rich
Gulf moisture, but clouds and precip will limit destabilization.
The cold front that has settled across the Rio Grande will likely
begin to lift north as a warm front Sunday. SBCAPE values will near
1500 J/kg south of the front while at the same time the exit
region of a mid level jet helps enhance large-scale ascent. Deep
layer shear will also contribute to an environment that would
support large hail and damaging winds. Storm mode will likely
become linear as convection moves east across the CWA. Heavy rain
may also cause localized flooding as PWAT values rise to near
record levels for mid January.

The upper low shifts into the Plains early next week, but an upper
trough is expected to lag behind to our west. This will keep
temperatures near normal while dry air also filters in from the
northwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     40  37  57  39 /  70  60  80  30
Carlsbad                       45  37  54  38 /  60  80  80  20
Dryden                         68  60  71  44 /  50  50  60  10
Fort Stockton                  47  47  63  41 /  60  50  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 43  36  47  34 /  50  70  80  20
Hobbs                          42  35  52  33 /  70  80  90  20
Marfa                          59  45  56  29 /  50  50  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           41  39  58  40 /  70  60  80  20
Odessa                         40  39  57  40 /  70  60  80  20
Wink                           44  41  59  36 /  70  70  80  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

67/29
436
FXUS64 KMAF 140641
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1241 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

.UPDATE...

Upglide continues to increase over the region early this morning
with light rain developing over the Permian Basin.  Boundary layer
temperatures are above freezing, however surface temperatures along
and north of a Tarzan to Snyder line have fallen below freezing in
many places.  Expect surface temperatures to drop to freezing or
below as far south as a Tarzan to Big Spring to Colorado City
through late tonight as light rain increases in these areas, and wet
bulbing occurs with surface dewpoints in the upper 20s to low 30s.
Have decided to issue a Freezing Rain Advisory for Dawson and
Martin, eastward to Scurry and Mitchell counties, which will last
until 14/18Z.  Although the ground is warm, a thin layer of ice
could accumulate on power lines, trees, and bridges and
overpasses.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1054 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Challenging flight conditions will continue the next 24 hours.
MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds and fog are affecting all
terminals, with deterioration to LIFR expected late tonight
through much of Saturday morning for MAF, INK, HOB, and PEQ. Light
rain is expected to develop by Saturday morning for all but
possibly PEQ and FST, and while isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Saturday areawide, have not included mention at this
time. Winds will generally be E/NE around 10-15KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cut off low over CA will move east and bring precipitation to
the region.  This low will swing across Baja on Saturday and
Northern Mexico into TX on Sunday.  By Monday the low moves into
OK/KS.  A secondary low may move near the area midweek.

A cold front moved into the area yesterday and has become stationary
near the Pecos River with cloud cover over most of the region.
Behind the front it is cold with a NE wind while much warmer and
generally a south wind ahead of it.  Lows tonight should be in the
30s north and 50s south... warms a little tomorrow to highs in the
40s north with 60s and 70s south.  This front may become focus for
future convection before slowly lifting north.  Even warmer on
Sunday.

Rain chances looking good and increasing through the weekend.
Thunderstorms enter the forecast Saturday and continue Sunday.
Will continue mention of a little mixed precip NE Permian Basin
Saturday morning but not expecting much.  On Saturday do have a
marginal risk of severe along the TX/NM border and a slight risk
severe on Sunday from ODO eastward.  Locally heavy rain will be also
possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Drys out early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     48  42  57  40 /  60  60  80  20
Carlsbad                       49  43  54  40 /  60  70  70  10
Dryden                         72  58  69  44 /  40  50  60  10
Fort Stockton                  60  50  65  42 /  50  50  70  10
Guadalupe Pass                 55  43  48  34 /  40  70  70  10
Hobbs                          45  40  53  35 /  70  80  80  20
Marfa                          61  38  53  30 /  30  50  60  10
Midland Intl Airport           49  45  59  40 /  60  60  80  10
Odessa                         49  47  57  40 /  70  60  80  10
Wink                           52  46  59  36 /  60  70  70  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST today for Borden-Dawson-
     Howard-Martin-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

29
625
FXUS64 KMAF 140454
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1054 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Challenging flight conditions will continue the next 24 hours.
MVFR and IFR conditions in low clouds and fog are affecting all
terminals, with deterioration to LIFR expected late tonight
through much of Saturday morning for MAF, INK, HOB, and PEQ. Light
rain is expected to develop by Saturday morning for all but
possibly PEQ and FST, and while isolated thunderstorms are
possible on Saturday areawide, have not included mention at this
time. Winds will generally be E/NE around 10-15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 148 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Strong cut off low over CA will move east and bring precipitation to
the region.  This low will swing across Baja on Saturday and
Northern Mexico into TX on Sunday.  By Monday the low moves into
OK/KS.  A secondary low may move near the area midweek.

A cold front moved into the area yesterday and has become stationary
near the Pecos River with cloud cover over most of the region.
Behind the front it is cold with a NE wind while much warmer and
generally a south wind ahead of it.  Lows tonight should be in the
30s north and 50s south... warms a little tomorrow to highs in the
40s north with 60s and 70s south.  This front may become focus for
future convection before slowly lifting north.  Even warmer on
Sunday.

Rain chances looking good and increasing through the weekend.
Thunderstorms enter the forecast Saturday and continue Sunday.
Will continue mention of a little mixed precip NE Permian Basin
Saturday morning but not expecting much.  On Saturday do have a
marginal risk of severe along the TX/NM border and a slight risk
severe on Sunday from ODO eastward.  Locally heavy rain will be also
possible mainly Saturday night and Sunday. Drys out early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  48  42  57 /  60  60  60  80
Carlsbad                       39  49  43  54 /  40  60  70  70
Dryden                         61  72  58  69 /  50  40  50  60
Fort Stockton                  51  60  50  65 /  40  50  50  70
Guadalupe Pass                 42  55  43  48 /  30  40  70  70
Hobbs                          34  45  40  53 /  50  70  80  80
Marfa                          41  61  38  53 /  20  30  50  60
Midland Intl Airport           36  49  45  59 /  60  60  60  80
Odessa                         37  49  47  57 /  50  70  60  80
Wink                           38  52  46  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/