Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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560
FXUS64 KMAF 100447
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1047 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR fog is expected to develop across portions of the area
tonight, mainly affecting CNM, HOB, INK, and PEQ. MVFR stratus
may also affect HOB, thus have gone with a prevailing mention
there, and TEMPO mention at the other terminals. Improvement is
expected by mid-morning on Saturday, with VFR conditions
prevailing at all terminals thereafter. Light S/SE winds will
veer to the SW Saturday afternoon, with breezy conditions possible
toward the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1020 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc obs show temps approaching forecast overnight mins a
little faster than anticipated. We`ll do a quick update to lower
them a notch, but not too much, given current dewpoints. We`ll
also adjust other parameters as needed. Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have a weak upper trough over Eastern US today with a ridge over the
West.  Upper flow over the region becomes zonal tomorrow and stays
pretty much that way through the week.  A mid latitude trough swings
across the center of the country Wednesday but it will be next
weekend before another upper low moves ashore the West Coast.

The recent cold wx has started to give way today as a south wind
returned but clouds over the region have limited sunshine and the
warm up.  As of 20z most locations were still in the 30s with 40s
south of the Pecos river.  Sky cover should continue to break up
during the afternoon but some low clouds should return tonight
especially for SE NM.  More sunshine Saturday with a warm up as
leeside trough sets up and S/SW wind helps out... highs in the 50s
and 60s.  Even warmer Sunday as westerly wind kicks in pushing highs
into the 70s.  Could come close to reaching High Wind speeds at GDP
Sunday but expecting will not make time requirement.  Looks like a
weak backdoor front moves in early Monday before lifting out later
in the day.  Return of colder wx mid week as a stronger front blows
in Wednesday with Thursday looking like coldest day of the week.
Currently have no precipitation in the forecast with a dry week
ahead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     30  58  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       27  65  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         30  60  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  33  65  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 35  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          26  60  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          27  64  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           29  57  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  56  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  61  39  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
266
FXUS64 KMAF 100420
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1020 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Latest sfc obs show temps approaching forecast overnight mins a
little faster than anticipated. We`ll do a quick update to lower
them a notch, but not too much, given current dewpoints. We`ll
also adjust other parameters as needed.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 532 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions have returned to the area, and are largely expected
to prevail through the forecast period. The only exception will be
the potential for MVFR fog to develop after around 10Z, mainly
affecting HOB, INK, and PEQ. HOB could also see some MVFR
stratus, but conditions are expected to improve by late morning.
Winds through the period are expected to remain around 12kt or
less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have a weak upper trough over Eastern US today with a ridge over the
West.  Upper flow over the region becomes zonal tomorrow and stays
pretty much that way through the week.  A mid latitude trough swings
across the center of the country Wednesday but it will be next
weekend before another upper low moves ashore the West Coast.

The recent cold wx has started to give way today as a south wind
returned but clouds over the region have limited sunshine and the
warm up.  As of 20z most locations were still in the 30s with 40s
south of the Pecos river.  Sky cover should continue to break up
during the afternoon but some low clouds should return tonight
especially for SE NM.  More sunshine Saturday with a warm up as
leeside trough sets up and S/SW wind helps out... highs in the 50s
and 60s.  Even warmer Sunday as westerly wind kicks in pushing highs
into the 70s.  Could come close to reaching High Wind speeds at GDP
Sunday but expecting will not make time requirement.  Looks like a
weak backdoor front moves in early Monday before lifting out later
in the day.  Return of colder wx mid week as a stronger front blows
in Wednesday with Thursday looking like coldest day of the week.
Currently have no precipitation in the forecast with a dry week
ahead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  58  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       28  65  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  60  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  65  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  60  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          25  64  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  57  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  56  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  61  39  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/44
734
FXUS64 KMAF 092332
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
532 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions have returned to the area, and are largely expected
to prevail through the forecast period. The only exception will be
the potential for MVFR fog to develop after around 10Z, mainly
affecting HOB, INK, and PEQ. HOB could also see some MVFR
stratus, but conditions are expected to improve by late morning.
Winds through the period are expected to remain around 12kt or
less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 210 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Have a weak upper trough over Eastern US today with a ridge over the
West.  Upper flow over the region becomes zonal tomorrow and stays
pretty much that way through the week.  A mid latitude trough swings
across the center of the country Wednesday but it will be next
weekend before another upper low moves ashore the West Coast.

The recent cold wx has started to give way today as a south wind
returned but clouds over the region have limited sunshine and the
warm up.  As of 20z most locations were still in the 30s with 40s
south of the Pecos river.  Sky cover should continue to break up
during the afternoon but some low clouds should return tonight
especially for SE NM.  More sunshine Saturday with a warm up as
leeside trough sets up and S/SW wind helps out... highs in the 50s
and 60s.  Even warmer Sunday as westerly wind kicks in pushing highs
into the 70s.  Could come close to reaching High Wind speeds at GDP
Sunday but expecting will not make time requirement.  Looks like a
weak backdoor front moves in early Monday before lifting out later
in the day.  Return of colder wx mid week as a stronger front blows
in Wednesday with Thursday looking like coldest day of the week.
Currently have no precipitation in the forecast with a dry week
ahead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  58  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       28  65  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  60  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  65  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  60  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          25  64  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  57  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  56  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  61  39  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
588
FXUS64 KMAF 092010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
210 PM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Have a weak upper trough over Eastern US today with a ridge over the
West.  Upper flow over the region becomes zonal tomorrow and stays
pretty much that way through the week.  A mid latitude trough swings
across the center of the country Wednesday but it will be next
weekend before another upper low moves ashore the West Coast.

The recent cold wx has started to give way today as a south wind
returned but clouds over the region have limited sunshine and the
warm up.  As of 20z most locations were still in the 30s with 40s
south of the Pecos river.  Sky cover should continue to break up
during the afternoon but some low clouds should return tonight
especially for SE NM.  More sunshine Saturday with a warm up as
leeside trough sets up and S/SW wind helps out... highs in the 50s
and 60s.  Even warmer Sunday as westerly wind kicks in pushing highs
into the 70s.  Could come close to reaching High Wind speeds at GDP
Sunday but expecting will not make time requirement.  Looks like a
weak backdoor front moves in early Monday before lifting out later
in the day.  Return of colder wx mid week as a stronger front blows
in Wednesday with Thursday looking like coldest day of the week.
Currently have no precipitation in the forecast with a dry week
ahead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  58  42  72 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       28  65  40  74 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         32  60  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  34  65  46  77 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 36  60  42  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          27  60  39  70 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          25  64  33  71 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  57  42  73 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         31  56  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           27  61  39  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

10/72
452
FXUS64 KMAF 091735
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1135 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR conditions have been slow to lift today. Despite
satellite showing an expansive area of clouds across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico, model data insists we will clear out
this afternoon so have placed VFR in the TAFs around 20Z though
the confidence in this timing is shaky at best. We could see a
return of MVFR/IFR conditions tonight but for now will only
include in the HOB/INK/PEQ TAFs.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 917 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

UPDATE...
Expiration of Freeze Warning.

DISCUSSION...
The Freeze Warning has expired... updated zones to remove
headline. Forecasted highs still look on track... no other
changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

Much quieter conditions are ahead for West Texas and SE NM this
weekend into much of next week. We are seeing widespread freezing
temperatures this morning all the way to the Rio Grande. Along with
this, freezing fog continues along the front range of the higher
terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains south to Alpine. The fog will
likely stick around through the morning until we see a bit of
mixing. Will continue the Hard Freeze Warning through the morning
for southern locations as they continue to see their first freeze of
season. This will be the last freeze product issued this season as
the majority of our area has now seen a hard freeze. Low clouds will
begin to clear late this morning with a good bit of sun expected by
afternoon. Cold air will be slow to move out, but high temperatures
should rebound into the 40`s today. A much more substantial warm-up
is likely this weekend as mid level flow becomes more zonal and
surface winds veer to the southwest. Highs could reach the 70`s
across much of the area Sunday. A weak front will slide through
Monday with slightly cooler, but still above normal temperatures.

A large scale upper trough will develop over southern Canada next
week with very cold, Arctic air settling in over the Northern
Plains. A piece of this airmass will break off and head south,
reaching our area sometime Wednesday. Models are still in
disagreement regarding and how cold the airmass will be, but we
will remain dry through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  31  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  26  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  31  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  34  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  36  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  26  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  26  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  30  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  31  56  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           43  27  61  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10
739
FXUS64 KMAF 091517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
917 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.UPDATE...
Expiration of Freeze Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Freeze Warning has expired... updated zones to remove
headline. Forecasted highs still look on track... no other
changes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 510 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility in fog will affect KCNM, with MVFR
ceilings and visibility possibly affecting the other area terminals
through 09/15Z.  Expect conditions to improve to VFR by 09/18Z, or
shortly thereafter.  VFR conditions will prevail until low clouds
set in after 10/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

Much quieter conditions are ahead for West Texas and SE NM this
weekend into much of next week. We are seeing widespread freezing
temperatures this morning all the way to the Rio Grande. Along with
this, freezing fog continues along the front range of the higher
terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains south to Alpine. The fog will
likely stick around through the morning until we see a bit of
mixing. Will continue the Hard Freeze Warning through the morning
for southern locations as they continue to see their first freeze of
season. This will be the last freeze product issued this season as
the majority of our area has now seen a hard freeze. Low clouds will
begin to clear late this morning with a good bit of sun expected by
afternoon. Cold air will be slow to move out, but high temperatures
should rebound into the 40`s today. A much more substantial warm-up
is likely this weekend as mid level flow becomes more zonal and
surface winds veer to the southwest. Highs could reach the 70`s
across much of the area Sunday. A weak front will slide through
Monday with slightly cooler, but still above normal temperatures.

A large scale upper trough will develop over southern Canada next
week with very cold, Arctic air settling in over the Northern
Plains. A piece of this airmass will break off and head south,
reaching our area sometime Wednesday. Models are still in
disagreement regarding and how cold the airmass will be, but we
will remain dry through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  31  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  26  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  31  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  34  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  36  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  26  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  26  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  30  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  31  56  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           43  27  61  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
547
FXUS64 KMAF 091110
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
510 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility in fog will affect KCNM, with MVFR
ceilings and visibility possibly affecting the other area terminals
through 09/15Z.  Expect conditions to improve to VFR by 09/18Z, or
shortly thereafter.  VFR conditions will prevail until low clouds
set in after 10/02Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 338 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016/

Much quieter conditions are ahead for West Texas and SE NM this
weekend into much of next week. We are seeing widespread freezing
temperatures this morning all the way to the Rio Grande. Along with
this, freezing fog continues along the front range of the higher
terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains south to Alpine. The fog will
likely stick around through the morning until we see a bit of
mixing. Will continue the Hard Freeze Warning through the morning
for southern locations as they continue to see their first freeze of
season. This will be the last freeze product issued this season as
the majority of our area has now seen a hard freeze. Low clouds will
begin to clear late this morning with a good bit of sun expected by
afternoon. Cold air will be slow to move out, but high temperatures
should rebound into the 40`s today. A much more substantial warm-up
is likely this weekend as mid level flow becomes more zonal and
surface winds veer to the southwest. Highs could reach the 70`s
across much of the area Sunday. A weak front will slide through
Monday with slightly cooler, but still above normal temperatures.

A large scale upper trough will develop over southern Canada next
week with very cold, Arctic air settling in over the Northern
Plains. A piece of this airmass will break off and head south,
reaching our area sometime Wednesday. Models are still in
disagreement regarding and how cold the airmass will be, but we
will remain dry through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  31  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  26  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  31  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  34  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  36  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  26  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  26  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  30  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  31  56  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           43  27  61  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Big Bend
     Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-Upton-Ward.

&&

$$

67/29
494
FXUS64 KMAF 090938
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
338 AM CST Fri Dec 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Much quieter conditions are ahead for West Texas and SE NM this
weekend into much of next week. We are seeing widespread freezing
temperatures this morning all the way to the Rio Grande. Along with
this, freezing fog continues along the front range of the higher
terrain from the Guadalupe Mountains south to Alpine. The fog will
likely stick around through the morning until we see a bit of
mixing. Will continue the Hard Freeze Warning through the morning
for southern locations as they continue to see their first freeze of
season. This will be the last freeze product issued this season as
the majority of our area has now seen a hard freeze. Low clouds will
begin to clear late this morning with a good bit of sun expected by
afternoon. Cold air will be slow to move out, but high temperatures
should rebound into the 40`s today. A much more substantial warm-up
is likely this weekend as mid level flow becomes more zonal and
surface winds veer to the southwest. Highs could reach the 70`s
across much of the area Sunday. A weak front will slide through
Monday with slightly cooler, but still above normal temperatures.

A large scale upper trough will develop over southern Canada next
week with very cold, Arctic air settling in over the Northern
Plains. A piece of this airmass will break off and head south,
reaching our area sometime Wednesday. Models are still in
disagreement regarding and how cold the airmass will be, but we
will remain dry through next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  31  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       46  26  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         44  31  55  38 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  43  34  67  46 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  36  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          41  26  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          51  26  63  33 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           41  30  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         40  31  56  43 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           43  27  61  39 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Big Bend
     Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-Upton-Ward.

&&

$$

67/29
286
FXUS64 KMAF 090454
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings have held at all but MAF, where ceilings have
scattered out to VFR. However, MVFR ceilings are expected to return
to MAF by 09Z, with MVFR conditions then prevailing areawide through
Friday morning.  There is the potential for patchy MVFR fog around
daybreak, with some IFR ceilings also possible for CNM and HOB
between 10-14Z. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected by 16-19Z on
Friday at all terminals. East winds will slowly veer around to the
south/southeast by Friday afternoon, remaining under 12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 737 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

UPDATE...
Update to include -FZDZ/FG in the mtns overnight.

Light east wind tonight will help to keep clouds pushed in the
mtns with low vsby/FZFG and -FZDZ expected. Light ice
accumulations will be possible from Davis-GDP Mtns as well.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

AVIATION...

Low clouds remain across the region at issuance, and though MAF
and INK are expected to see VFR conditions for several hours this
evening, MVFR ceilings should redevelop by around 09-10Z at those
terminals. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will prevail areawide
tonight, with the potential for some MVFR fog around daybreak for
CNM, HOB, and INK. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected by
15-18Z on Friday at all terminals. Winds will slowly veer around
to the south by Friday afternoon, remaining under 12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

The remainder of the snow is moving east of the area with
freezing temperatures across most of the CWA except south of the
Davis Mountains, portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, and along the
Rio Grande. The precipitation is expected to be out of the area by
this evening, and the rest of the forecast is dry. The surface
high will remain near the area overnight and skies will begin to
clear. Overnight lows tonight will be allowed to plummet into the
upper teens in northern Lea County to around 32 degrees around the
Rio Grande. There is a Hard Freeze Warning in effect for the
southern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos for a hard freeze and
along the Rio Grande for a freeze.

Surface winds will return to the south by Friday afternoon allowing
for temperatures to warm up into the 40s for most of the area.
Mostly zonal flow will be in place over the weekend with surface
winds become elevated out of the southwest to west with a surface
trough developing.  These conditions will allow for temperatures to
warm up into the 50s and 60s for Saturday and into the 60s and 70s
for most places on Sunday.  The GFS and ECMWF both show a weak cold
front moving into the area on Monday resulting in temperatures
cooling into the 50s for the northern Permian Basin.  The models
then show another, stronger cold front moving into the area Tuesday
night which will result in temperatures cooling into the 40s and 50s
for the CWA except along the Rio Grande on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     23  43  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       23  47  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  46  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  26  49  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  46  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  41  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          21  48  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  43  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         23  43  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  45  29  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Friday for Big Bend Area-
     Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-Upton-Ward.

&&

$$
384
FXUS64 KMAF 090137 AAA
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
737 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Update to include -FZDZ/FG in the mtns overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light east wind tonight will help to keep clouds pushed in the
mtns with low vsby/FZFG and -FZDZ expected. Light ice accumulations
will be possible from Davis-GDP Mtns as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Low clouds remain across the region at issuance, and though MAF
and INK are expected to see VFR conditions for several hours this
evening, MVFR ceilings should redevelop by around 09-10Z at those
terminals. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will prevail areawide
tonight, with the potential for some MVFR fog around daybreak for
CNM, HOB, and INK. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected by
15-18Z on Friday at all terminals. Winds will slowly veer around
to the south by Friday afternoon, remaining under 12kt.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The remainder of the snow is moving east of the area with freezing
temperatures across most of the CWA except south of the Davis
Mountains, portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, and along the Rio
Grande. The precipitation is expected to be out of the area by this
evening, and the rest of the forecast is dry. The surface high
will remain near the area overnight and skies will begin to clear.
Overnight lows tonight will be allowed to plummet into the upper
teens in northern Lea County to around 32 degrees around the Rio
Grande. There is a Hard Freeze Warning in effect for the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos for a hard freeze and along
the Rio Grande for a freeze.

Surface winds will return to the south by Friday afternoon allowing
for temperatures to warm up into the 40s for most of the area.
Mostly zonal flow will be in place over the weekend with surface
winds become elevated out of the southwest to west with a surface
trough developing.  These conditions will allow for temperatures to
warm up into the 50s and 60s for Saturday and into the 60s and 70s
for most places on Sunday.  The GFS and ECMWF both show a weak cold
front moving into the area on Monday resulting in temperatures
cooling into the 50s for the northern Permian Basin.  The models
then show another, stronger cold front moving into the area Tuesday
night which will result in temperatures cooling into the 40s and 50s
for the CWA except along the Rio Grande on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     23  43  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       23  47  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  46  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  26  49  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  46  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  41  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          21  48  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  43  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         23  43  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  45  29  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST Friday for Big Bend Area-
     Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-Upton-Ward.

&&

$$
483
FXUS64 KMAF 082347
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
547 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds remain across the region at issuance, and though MAF
and INK are expected to see VFR conditions for several hours this
evening, MVFR ceilings should redevelop by around 09-10Z at those
terminals. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will prevail areawide
tonight, with the potential for some MVFR fog around daybreak for
CNM, HOB, and INK. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected by
15-18Z on Friday at all terminals. Winds will slowly veer around
to the south by Friday afternoon, remaining under 12kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 222 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The remainder of the snow is moving east of the area with freezing
temperatures across most of the CWA except south of the Davis
Mountains, portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, and along the Rio
Grande. The precipitation is expected to be out of the area by this
evening, and the rest of the forecast is dry. The surface high
will remain near the area overnight and skies will begin to clear.
Overnight lows tonight will be allowed to plummet into the upper
teens in northern Lea County to around 32 degrees around the Rio
Grande. There is a Hard Freeze Warning in effect for the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos for a hard freeze and along
the Rio Grande for a freeze.

Surface winds will return to the south by Friday afternoon allowing
for temperatures to warm up into the 40s for most of the area.
Mostly zonal flow will be in place over the weekend with surface
winds become elevated out of the southwest to west with a surface
trough developing.  These conditions will allow for temperatures to
warm up into the 50s and 60s for Saturday and into the 60s and 70s
for most places on Sunday.  The GFS and ECMWF both show a weak cold
front moving into the area on Monday resulting in temperatures
cooling into the 50s for the northern Permian Basin.  The models
then show another, stronger cold front moving into the area Tuesday
night which will result in temperatures cooling into the 40s and 50s
for the CWA except along the Rio Grande on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     23  43  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       23  47  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  46  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  26  49  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  46  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  41  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          21  48  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  43  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         23  43  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  45  29  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-
     Terrell-Upton-Ward.

&&

$$
275
FXUS64 KMAF 082022
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
222 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The remainder of the snow is moving east of the area with freezing
temperatures across most of the CWA except south of the Davis
Mountains, portions of the Lower Trans Pecos, and along the Rio
Grande. The precipitation is expected to be out of the area by this
evening, and the rest of the forecast is dry. The surface high
will remain near the area overnight and skies will begin to clear.
Overnight lows tonight will be allowed to plummet into the upper
teens in northern Lea County to around 32 degrees around the Rio
Grande. There is a Hard Freeze Warning in effect for the southern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos for a hard freeze and along
the Rio Grande for a freeze.

Surface winds will return to the south by Friday afternoon allowing
for temperatures to warm up into the 40s for most of the area.
Mostly zonal flow will be in place over the weekend with surface
winds become elevated out of the southwest to west with a surface
trough developing.  These conditions will allow for temperatures to
warm up into the 50s and 60s for Saturday and into the 60s and 70s
for most places on Sunday.  The GFS and ECMWF both show a weak cold
front moving into the area on Monday resulting in temperatures
cooling into the 50s for the northern Permian Basin.  The models
then show another, stronger cold front moving into the area Tuesday
night which will result in temperatures cooling into the 40s and 50s
for the CWA except along the Rio Grande on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     23  43  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       23  47  29  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         28  46  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  26  49  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 22  46  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          21  41  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          21  48  25  64 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           23  43  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         23  43  31  57 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           24  45  29  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-
     Terrell-Upton-Ward.

&&

$$

72/80
760
FXUS64 KMAF 081820
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 PM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Expiration of products.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Have updated the forecast for the expiration of Winter Weather Advisory
and High Wind Warning. Wind speeds at GDP have dropped and most of
the snow has moved east. Light flurries are possible through the
afternoon especially for the eastern Permian Basin.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1134 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
As of 17z swath of light snow moving east out of the region...
generally only affecting MAF and FST. MVFR cigs and vsbys
possible through the day at most TAF sites becoming VFR overnight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to take out the Freeze Warning for this morning
and to extend the High Wind Warning.

DISCUSSION...

The Freeze Warning that was in effect for this morning has been
allowed to expire. Winds at Guadalupe Pass are still at high wind
criteria so the High Wind Warning is being extended until 18z.
Guidance is not showing any high winds after 18z so the High Wind
Warning will be allowed to expire at that time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Very cold temperatures are here along with a wintry mix of sleet,
freezing rain and snow...

A strong, Arctic cold front continues to barrel south across the
area this morning with sharply colder conditions behind it.
Temperatures have fallen into the 20`s across SE NM and the Permian
Basin with 30`s and 40`s to the south. The Hard Freeze Warning for
the eastern and central Permian Basin looks good and will let it
ride through the morning. Meanwhile, strong gap winds continue
behind the front at Guadalupe Pass so will continue the High Wind
Warning through mid morning there.

As if that is not enough, a weak disturbance is generating enough
lift for a narrow band of light to moderate precipitation along
mainly the I-10 and I-20 corridors. We are seeing snow across the
Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin while areas along I-10 are
seeing rain begin to mix with freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Have
opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from the Guadalupe
Mountains east to the central Permian Basin. An inch or two of
snow is not out of the question along the I-20 corridor west to
the Guadalupe Mountains. Further south along I-10, freezing rain
may be more of a problem as cold air dams up against the higher
terrain. We typically see issues on the roads near the I-10/I-20
split during this type of event. This advisory will go until Noon
today as any precipitation should be ending around then.

Don`t expect much of a warmup this afternoon as CAA continues along
with the clouds and precipitation. High temperatures will struggle
to get above freezing for the majority of the CWA. Clouds begin to
clear a bit late tonight, mainly across the Permian Basin. This will
allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20`s with freezing
temperatures possible all the way to the Rio Grande. Will upgrade
the Freeze watch to a warning for locations that have yet to see a
hard freeze or a freeze at all.

Slightly warmer conditions arrive Friday afternoon amid return flow
as high temperatures climb into the 40`s. This weekend is looking
dry and fairly nice as a more zonal mid level flow sets up across
the area. This will keep the cold air to our north and allow for
temperatures to warm back above normal. We may see a weak front on
Monday, but our attention turns back to the north as more Arctic air
builds over Canada. Models continue to have trouble with this
airmass, but indications are that it will again be released south
possibly entering our area by the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  24  43  31 /  50   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  22  46  29 /  30   0   0   0
Dryden                         40  30  45  30 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  32  26  49  34 /  40   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  22  45  35 /  30   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  21  41  28 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  22  48  27 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  24  43  30 /  60   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  24  43  31 /  60   0   0   0
Wink                           32  24  45  29 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-
     Terrell-Upton-Ward.

&&

$$
293
FXUS64 KMAF 081734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1134 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 17z swath of light snow moving east out of the region...
generally only affecting MAF and FST. MVFR cigs and vsbys
possible through the day at most TAF sites becoming VFR overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 931 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

UPDATE...

Updated forecast to take out the Freeze Warning for this morning
and to extend the High Wind Warning.

DISCUSSION...

The Freeze Warning that was in effect for this morning has been
allowed to expire. Winds at Guadalupe Pass are still at high wind
criteria so the High Wind Warning is being extended until 18z.
Guidance is not showing any high winds after 18z so the High Wind
Warning will be allowed to expire at that time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Very cold temperatures are here along with a wintry mix of sleet,
freezing rain and snow...

A strong, Arctic cold front continues to barrel south across the
area this morning with sharply colder conditions behind it.
Temperatures have fallen into the 20`s across SE NM and the Permian
Basin with 30`s and 40`s to the south. The Hard Freeze Warning for
the eastern and central Permian Basin looks good and will let it
ride through the morning. Meanwhile, strong gap winds continue
behind the front at Guadalupe Pass so will continue the High Wind
Warning through mid morning there.

As if that is not enough, a weak disturbance is generating enough
lift for a narrow band of light to moderate precipitation along
mainly the I-10 and I-20 corridors. We are seeing snow across the
Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin while areas along I-10 are
seeing rain begin to mix with freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Have
opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from the Guadalupe
Mountains east to the central Permian Basin. An inch or two of
snow is not out of the question along the I-20 corridor west to
the Guadalupe Mountains. Further south along I-10, freezing rain
may be more of a problem as cold air dams up against the higher
terrain. We typically see issues on the roads near the I-10/I-20
split during this type of event. This advisory will go until Noon
today as any precipitation should be ending around then.

Don`t expect much of a warmup this afternoon as CAA continues along
with the clouds and precipitation. High temperatures will struggle
to get above freezing for the majority of the CWA. Clouds begin to
clear a bit late tonight, mainly across the Permian Basin. This will
allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20`s with freezing
temperatures possible all the way to the Rio Grande. Will upgrade
the Freeze watch to a warning for locations that have yet to see a
hard freeze or a freeze at all.

Slightly warmer conditions arrive Friday afternoon amid return flow
as high temperatures climb into the 40`s. This weekend is looking
dry and fairly nice as a more zonal mid level flow sets up across
the area. This will keep the cold air to our north and allow for
temperatures to warm back above normal. We may see a weak front on
Monday, but our attention turns back to the north as more Arctic air
builds over Canada. Models continue to have trouble with this
airmass, but indications are that it will again be released south
possibly entering our area by the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  24  43  31 /  50   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  22  46  29 /  30   0   0   0
Dryden                         40  30  45  30 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  32  26  49  34 /  40   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  22  45  35 /  30   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  21  41  28 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  22  48  27 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  24  43  30 /  60   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  24  43  31 /  60   0   0   0
Wink                           32  24  45  29 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Southern
     Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-
     Terrell-Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$
117
FXUS64 KMAF 081531
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
931 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast to take out the Freeze Warning for this morning
and to extend the High Wind Warning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The Freeze Warning that was in effect for this morning has been
allowed to expire. Winds at Guadalupe Pass are still at high wind
criteria so the High Wind Warning is being extended until 18z.
Guidance is not showing any high winds after 18z so the High Wind
Warning will be allowed to expire at that time.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

.Very cold temperatures are here along with a wintry mix of sleet,
freezing rain and snow...

A strong, Arctic cold front continues to barrel south across the
area this morning with sharply colder conditions behind it.
Temperatures have fallen into the 20`s across SE NM and the Permian
Basin with 30`s and 40`s to the south. The Hard Freeze Warning for
the eastern and central Permian Basin looks good and will let it
ride through the morning. Meanwhile, strong gap winds continue
behind the front at Guadalupe Pass so will continue the High Wind
Warning through mid morning there.

As if that is not enough, a weak disturbance is generating enough
lift for a narrow band of light to moderate precipitation along
mainly the I-10 and I-20 corridors. We are seeing snow across the
Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin while areas along I-10 are
seeing rain begin to mix with freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Have
opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from the Guadalupe
Mountains east to the central Permian Basin. An inch or two of
snow is not out of the question along the I-20 corridor west to
the Guadalupe Mountains. Further south along I-10, freezing rain
may be more of a problem as cold air dams up against the higher
terrain. We typically see issues on the roads near the I-10/I-20
split during this type of event. This advisory will go until Noon
today as any precipitation should be ending around then.

Don`t expect much of a warmup this afternoon as CAA continues along
with the clouds and precipitation. High temperatures will struggle
to get above freezing for the majority of the CWA. Clouds begin to
clear a bit late tonight, mainly across the Permian Basin. This will
allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20`s with freezing
temperatures possible all the way to the Rio Grande. Will upgrade
the Freeze watch to a warning for locations that have yet to see a
hard freeze or a freeze at all.

Slightly warmer conditions arrive Friday afternoon amid return flow
as high temperatures climb into the 40`s. This weekend is looking
dry and fairly nice as a more zonal mid level flow sets up across
the area. This will keep the cold air to our north and allow for
temperatures to warm back above normal. We may see a weak front on
Monday, but our attention turns back to the north as more Arctic air
builds over Canada. Models continue to have trouble with this
airmass, but indications are that it will again be released south
possibly entering our area by the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  24  43  31 /  50   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  22  46  29 /  30   0   0   0
Dryden                         40  30  45  30 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  32  26  49  34 /  40   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  22  45  35 /  30   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  21  41  28 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  22  48  27 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  24  43  30 /  60   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  24  43  31 /  60   0   0   0
Wink                           32  24  45  29 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Southern
     Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-
     Terrell-Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

$$

99/99
067
FXUS64 KMAF 081117
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
517 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars show bands of -SN streaming across West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico this morning. This activity is forecast to
continue thru around 18Z or so. Until then, cigs/vsbys will vary
mainly between MVFR and IFR as snowfall intensity fluctuates. All
terminals should scatter out to VFR this afternoon once the
shortwave passes, and remain so until the end of the forecast
period except KHOB. Buffer soundings redevelop MVFR cigs there
after 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 453 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..Very cold temperatures are here along with a wintry mix of sleet,
freezing rain and snow...

A strong, Arctic cold front continues to barrel south across the
area this morning with sharply colder conditions behind it.
Temperatures have fallen into the 20`s across SE NM and the Permian
Basin with 30`s and 40`s to the south. The Hard Freeze Warning for
the eastern and central Permian Basin looks good and will let it
ride through the morning. Meanwhile, strong gap winds continue
behind the front at Guadalupe Pass so will continue the High Wind
Warning through mid morning there.

As if that is not enough, a weak disturbance is generating enough
lift for a narrow band of light to moderate precipitation along
mainly the I-10 and I-20 corridors. We are seeing snow across the
Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin while areas along I-10 are
seeing rain begin to mix with freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Have
opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from the Guadalupe
Mountains east to the central Permian Basin. An inch or two of
snow is not out of the question along the I-20 corridor west to
the Guadalupe Mountains. Further south along I-10, freezing rain
may be more of a problem as cold air dams up against the higher
terrain. We typically see issues on the roads near the I-10/I-20
split during this type of event. This advisory will go until Noon
today as any precipitation should be ending around then.

Don`t expect much of a warmup this afternoon as CAA continues along
with the clouds and precipitation. High temperatures will struggle
to get above freezing for the majority of the CWA. Clouds begin to
clear a bit late tonight, mainly across the Permian Basin. This will
allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20`s with freezing
temperatures possible all the way to the Rio Grande. Will upgrade
the Freeze watch to a warning for locations that have yet to see a
hard freeze or a freeze at all.

Slightly warmer conditions arrive Friday afternoon amid return flow
as high temperatures climb into the 40`s. This weekend is looking
dry and fairly nice as a more zonal mid level flow sets up across
the area. This will keep the cold air to our north and allow for
temperatures to warm back above normal. We may see a weak front on
Monday, but our attention turns back to the north as more Arctic air
builds over Canada. Models continue to have trouble with this
airmass, but indications are that it will again be released south
possibly entering our area by the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  24  43  31 /  50   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  22  46  29 /  30   0   0   0
Dryden                         40  30  45  30 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  32  26  49  34 /  40   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  22  45  35 /  30   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  21  41  28 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  22  48  27 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  24  43  30 /  60   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  24  43  31 /  60   0   0   0
Wink                           32  24  45  29 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Southern
     Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-
     Terrell-Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

44/29/44
426
FXUS64 KMAF 081053
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
453 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Very cold temperatures are here along with a wintry mix of sleet,
freezing rain and snow...

A strong, Arctic cold front continues to barrel south across the
area this morning with sharply colder conditions behind it.
Temperatures have fallen into the 20`s across SE NM and the Permian
Basin with 30`s and 40`s to the south. The Hard Freeze Warning for
the eastern and central Permian Basin looks good and will let it
ride through the morning. Meanwhile, strong gap winds continue
behind the front at Guadalupe Pass so will continue the High Wind
Warning through mid morning there.

As if that is not enough, a weak disturbance is generating enough
lift for a narrow band of light to moderate precipitation along
mainly the I-10 and I-20 corridors. We are seeing snow across the
Upper Trans Pecos and Permian Basin while areas along I-10 are
seeing rain begin to mix with freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Have
opted to issue a Winter Weather Advisory from the Guadalupe
Mountains east to the central Permian Basin. An inch or two of
snow is not out of the question along the I-20 corridor west to
the Guadalupe Mountains. Further south along I-10, freezing rain
may be more of a problem as cold air dams up against the higher
terrain. We typically see issues on the roads near the I-10/I-20
split during this type of event. This advisory will go until Noon
today as any precipitation should be ending around then.

Don`t expect much of a warmup this afternoon as CAA continues along
with the clouds and precipitation. High temperatures will struggle
to get above freezing for the majority of the CWA. Clouds begin to
clear a bit late tonight, mainly across the Permian Basin. This will
allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20`s with freezing
temperatures possible all the way to the Rio Grande. Will upgrade
the Freeze watch to a warning for locations that have yet to see a
hard freeze or a freeze at all.

Slightly warmer conditions arrive Friday afternoon amid return flow
as high temperatures climb into the 40`s. This weekend is looking
dry and fairly nice as a more zonal mid level flow sets up across
the area. This will keep the cold air to our north and allow for
temperatures to warm back above normal. We may see a weak front on
Monday, but our attention turns back to the north as more Arctic air
builds over Canada. Models continue to have trouble with this
airmass, but indications are that it will again be released south
possibly entering our area by the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     31  24  43  31 /  50   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       32  22  46  29 /  30   0   0   0
Dryden                         40  30  45  30 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  32  26  49  34 /  40   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 27  22  45  35 /  30   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  21  41  28 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  22  48  27 /  20   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           30  24  43  30 /  60   0   0   0
Odessa                         30  24  43  31 /  60   0   0   0
Wink                           32  24  45  29 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Southern
     Lea County.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday
     for Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-
     Terrell-Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
     Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Glasscock-
     Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-Mitchell-
     Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

     Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

44/29
075
FXUS64 KMAF 080446
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1046 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Arctic front is surging s-sw and winds have increased earlier
than previously forecast and therefore may decrease some earlier
too. Wintry precip mostly in the form of -SN is expected to
develop INVOF INK/PEQ btwn 08Z-10Z and MAF around 10Z. We expect
-SN BR to prevail for several hrs and MVFR CIGS/VSBY to accompany.
Around an inch of snow is possible. Improving conditions are expected
mostly after 18Z/Thur.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  26  33  23 /   0  30  20   0
Carlsbad                       63  28  33  22 /   0  40  20   0
Dryden                         65  38  40  29 /   0  20  20   0
Fort Stockton                  67  32  34  26 /   0  40  30   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  25  29  20 /   0  40  20   0
Hobbs                          59  23  31  20 /   0  20  20   0
Marfa                          62  32  35  22 /   0  30  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  27  33  23 /   0  30  30   0
Odessa                         63  27  33  23 /   0  30  30   0
Wink                           65  29  34  24 /   0  40  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$
311
FXUS64 KMAF 072326
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
526 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Leading edge of 3hr MSLP rises have made it to HOB/MAF with
stronger NE winds (15kts) having made it to s of CVN/LBB. Also
there are patches of mostly MVFR CIGS around BPG/MAF. MSLP
gradient will noticeably tighten before 03Z at MAF/HOB when
sustained NE winds will increase 20-23kts. MVFR CIGS will expand
then as well. There is concern for wintry precip as early as 08Z
at PEQ/INK and 10Z at MAF and have started with TEMPO groups then
transitioning to prevailing MVFR CIGS/VSBY with -SN BR. -FZDZ is
possible too, but we have omitted that for now. Precip will
persist until around 18Z-20Z. Snow accumulations of less than 1"
are expected, snow will probably initially melt tempering
accumulation expectations at this point.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 224 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough extends across the country with an upper low
centered on the north end of the Great Lakes.  A cold front will
push southward today towards the CWA, but high temperatures ahead of
the front are expected to warm up into the upper 50s and 60s across
much of the area.  The cold front will begin moving into the CWA
this evening with brisk northeast winds behind it and will continue
through the rest of the area tonight.  Winds will pick up through
Guadalupe Pass overnight into tomorrow morning and are expected to
reach high wind criteria so a High Wind Warning remains in effect
for this area from 2 am to 8 am MST.  This cold air is expected to
result in the first hard freeze across the Western Low Rolling
Plains and portions of the Permian Basin tonight/tomorrow morning so
a Freeze Warning remains in effect.

Precipitation is expected tonight into tomorrow with the passage of
this front. Due to the plummeting temperatures, the precipitation
type will likely be frozen. The NAM12 keeps most of the
precipitation out of the Permian Basin and develops it generally
south and west of the Pecos River. The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian
develop precipitation covering much of the Permian Basin and
extending south to the Davis Mountains and west to the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Will tend to favor these other
models since the NAM appears to be the outlier. GFS forecast
soundings suggest perhaps a brief period of rain followed by a
brief period of sleet and/or freezing rain before transitioning
into snow. The soundings also indicate a dry layer moving over the
area between the -20 and -10 degree isotherms around noon with the
sounding remaining below freezing so perhaps changing over to
freezing drizzle for late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures
during Thursday afternoon are expected to be in the 30s for all of
the CWA except locations near and along the Rio Grande River. The
precipitation is expected to be over with by evening.
Accumulations of ice and snow are expected to be low so did not
issue any winter weather advisories or warnings at this time
although isolated locations may see locally higher amounts.

Light winds with skies beginning to clear will result in very cold
temperatures across the whole area Friday morning. Lows will range
from the upper teens in northern Lea County to around 32 along the
Rio Grande River. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the
southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend,and Presidio
Valley for the first freeze and hard freeze Thursday night/Friday
morning. Temperatures start to warm up on Friday with highs in the
40s and 50s and surface winds become southerly. The upper flow
appears to be mainly zonal heading into the weekend. Surface winds
become southwest to westerly on Saturday resulting in downslope
warming and temperatures warming into the upper 50s to 60s.  The GFS
shows another cold front moving into the area next Sunday/Monday but
this front appears to have little to no impact as conditions remain
dry and temperatures do not change much. Temperatures will be near
or above normal in the extended forecast with no precipitation
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     26  33  23  42 /  30  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       28  33  22  44 /  40  20   0   0
Dryden                         38  40  29  45 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  32  34  26  48 /  40  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 25  29  20  45 /  40  20   0   0
Hobbs                          23  31  20  42 /  20  20   0   0
Marfa                          32  35  22  48 /  30  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           27  33  23  43 /  30  30   0   0
Odessa                         27  33  23  43 /  30  30   0   0
Wink                           29  34  24  44 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$
921
FXUS64 KMAF 072024
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
224 PM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough extends across the country with an upper low
centered on the north end of the Great Lakes.  A cold front will
push southward today towards the CWA, but high temperatures ahead of
the front are expected to warm up into the upper 50s and 60s across
much of the area.  The cold front will begin moving into the CWA
this evening with brisk northeast winds behind it and will continue
through the rest of the area tonight.  Winds will pick up through
Guadalupe Pass overnight into tomorrow morning and are expected to
reach high wind criteria so a High Wind Warning remains in effect
for this area from 2 am to 8 am MST.  This cold air is expected to
result in the first hard freeze across the Western Low Rolling
Plains and portions of the Permian Basin tonight/tomorrow morning so
a Freeze Warning remains in effect.

Precipitation is expected tonight into tomorrow with the passage of
this front. Due to the plummeting temperatures, the precipitation
type will likely be frozen. The NAM12 keeps most of the
precipitation out of the Permian Basin and develops it generally
south and west of the Pecos River. The ECMWF, GFS, and Canadian
develop precipitation covering much of the Permian Basin and
extending south to the Davis Mountains and west to the Guadalupe
Mountains and southeast New Mexico. Will tend to favor these other
models since the NAM appears to be the outlier. GFS forecast
soundings suggest perhaps a brief period of rain followed by a
brief period of sleet and/or freezing rain before transitioning
into snow. The soundings also indicate a dry layer moving over the
area between the -20 and -10 degree isotherms around noon with the
sounding remaining below freezing so perhaps changing over to
freezing drizzle for late morning into the afternoon. Temperatures
during Thursday afternoon are expected to be in the 30s for all of
the CWA except locations near and along the Rio Grande River. The
precipitation is expected to be over with by evening.
Accumulations of ice and snow are expected to be low so did not
issue any winter weather advisories or warnings at this time
although isolated locations may see locally higher amounts.

Light winds with skies beginning to clear will result in very cold
temperatures across the whole area Friday morning. Lows will range
from the upper teens in northern Lea County to around 32 along the
Rio Grande River. A Freeze Warning remains in effect for the
southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos, Big Bend,and Presidio
Valley for the first freeze and hard freeze Thursday night/Friday
morning. Temperatures start to warm up on Friday with highs in the
40s and 50s and surface winds become southerly. The upper flow
appears to be mainly zonal heading into the weekend. Surface winds
become southwest to westerly on Saturday resulting in downslope
warming and temperatures warming into the upper 50s to 60s.  The GFS
shows another cold front moving into the area next Sunday/Monday but
this front appears to have little to no impact as conditions remain
dry and temperatures do not change much. Temperatures will be near
or above normal in the extended forecast with no precipitation
expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     26  33  23  42 /  30  20   0   0
Carlsbad                       28  33  22  44 /  40  20   0   0
Dryden                         38  40  29  45 /  20  20   0   0
Fort Stockton                  32  34  26  48 /  40  30   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 25  29  20  45 /  40  20   0   0
Hobbs                          23  31  20  42 /  20  20   0   0
Marfa                          32  35  22  48 /  30  20   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           27  33  23  43 /  30  30   0   0
Odessa                         27  33  23  43 /  30  30   0   0
Wink                           29  34  24  44 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

10/80
909
FXUS64 KMAF 071439
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
839 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to lower high temperatures a few degrees
due to low clouds and fog lingering longer than previously
expected.

&&

.AVIATION...

A bit of stratus has developed this AM, resulting in LIFR
cigs/visbys KMAF, IFR KPEQ, and MVFR KHOB. These conditions should
scatter out to VFR before or by noon, and remain so until late
this evening when an arctic cold front arrives. Buffer soundings
put fropa at KMAF and KHOB around 05Z, bringing in another round
of stratus/fog. Attm, stratus/fog looks to go no lower than IFR.
Expect gusty NE winds behind the front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..Turning much colder tonight with a chance for wintry
precipitation...

Fog and low clouds have developed across the region this morning as
low level moisture returns behind a front that moved through
Tuesday. There could be a few slick spots across SE NM and the
northwest Permian Basin where temperatures are near freezing. These
conditions shouldn`t last long as southwesterly low level flow kicks
in later this morning and clears out most of the moisture.

Expect a fairly nice day (compared to what`s coming) with downslope
flow helping warm temperatures into the 50`s and 60`s. Thick high
clouds will keep it from getting any warmer. To our north, Arctic
air has been gathering all week and will be released down the
Plains today following a shortwave moving across the middle of the
U.S. The front is expected to arrive across northern areas around
sunset and reach the Rio Grande by Thursday morning. Strong gap
winds are expected with the front through Guadalupe Pass so have
issued a High Wind Warning there. The coldest air so far this
season will quickly filter in with many locations dropping below
freezing within a few hours of the frontal passage. For parts of
the Permian Basin this means the first hard freeze of the season
will arrive Thursday morning. We will issue a Hard Freeze Warning
for the eastern and southern Permian Basin where a hard freeze has
not occurred yet. Further south across the Big Bend and Rio
Grande, temperatures are not expected to reach freezing until
Friday morning. More on this shortly.

As the colder air deepens overnight, a weak mid level disturbance
will pass across the region creating enough lift for precipitation
to develop. Model soundings are coming into better agreement this
morning showing mostly snow across the Permian Basin, SE NM, and the
Upper Trans Pecos. Along the I-10 corridor, expect a mix of light
freezing rain and snow. This event may give us a few travel
headaches as cold air and moisture back up against the higher
terrain. Typically in this set-up we see light icing on some of the
roadways near the I-10/I-20 split. This will be monitored closely
for a possible Winter Weather Advisory. Further north, the snow is
not expected to cause much concern with only light accumulations,
but this will be watched as well.

Clouds will be slow to clear, but temperatures are still expected
to fall below freezing for the first time this season across the
Big Bend and Rio Grande Thursday night. Have issued a Freeze Watch
for these locations. Clouds really begin to clear Friday afternoon,
but chilly temperatures will stick around for one more day with
highs generally in the 40`s. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will lead to
warming temperatures this weekend before another cold front
arrives early next week. Very cold air will remain entrenched
across the northern U.S. and models typically have a hard time
handling these airmasses. Stay tuned to the forecast as we could
see more cold air next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     56  28  33  25 /   0  20  20   0
Carlsbad                       60  29  33  23 /   0  20  20   0
Dryden                         62  41  41  31 /   0  20  20   0
Fort Stockton                  64  32  33  28 /   0  20  30   0
Guadalupe Pass                 53  26  30  23 /   0  20  20   0
Hobbs                          56  23  32  22 /   0  20  10   0
Marfa                          59  31  35  23 /   0  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           60  27  32  25 /   0  20  20   0
Odessa                         60  27  32  26 /   0  20  20   0
Wink                           62  30  34  25 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

99/99
598
FXUS64 KMAF 071128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
528 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A bit of stratus has developed this AM, resulting in LIFR
cigs/visbys KMAF, IFR KPEQ, and MVFR KHOB. These conditions should
scatter out to VFR before or by noon, and remain so until late
this evening when an arctic cold front arrives. Buffer soundings
put fropa at KMAF and KHOB around 05Z, bringing in another round
of stratus/fog. Attm, stratus/fog looks to go no lower than IFR.
Expect gusty NE winds behind the front.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..Turning much colder tonight with a chance for wintry
precipitation...

Fog and low clouds have developed across the region this morning as
low level moisture returns behind a front that moved through
Tuesday. There could be a few slick spots across SE NM and the
northwest Permian Basin where temperatures are near freezing. These
conditions shouldn`t last long as southwesterly low level flow kicks
in later this morning and clears out most of the moisture.

Expect a fairly nice day (compared to what`s coming) with downslope
flow helping warm temperatures into the 50`s and 60`s. Thick high
clouds will keep it from getting any warmer. To our north, Arctic
air has been gathering all week and will be released down the
Plains today following a shortwave moving across the middle of the
U.S. The front is expected to arrive across northern areas around
sunset and reach the Rio Grande by Thursday morning. Strong gap
winds are expected with the front through Guadalupe Pass so have
issued a High Wind Warning there. The coldest air so far this
season will quickly filter in with many locations dropping below
freezing within a few hours of the frontal passage. For parts of
the Permian Basin this means the first hard freeze of the season
will arrive Thursday morning. We will issue a Hard Freeze Warning
for the eastern and southern Permian Basin where a hard freeze has
not occurred yet. Further south across the Big Bend and Rio
Grande, temperatures are not expected to reach freezing until
Friday morning. More on this shortly.

As the colder air deepens overnight, a weak mid level disturbance
will pass across the region creating enough lift for precipitation
to develop. Model soundings are coming into better agreement this
morning showing mostly snow across the Permian Basin, SE NM, and the
Upper Trans Pecos. Along the I-10 corridor, expect a mix of light
freezing rain and snow. This event may give us a few travel
headaches as cold air and moisture back up against the higher
terrain. Typically in this set-up we see light icing on some of the
roadways near the I-10/I-20 split. This will be monitored closely
for a possible Winter Weather Advisory. Further north, the snow is
not expected to cause much concern with only light accumulations,
but this will be watched as well.

Clouds will be slow to clear, but temperatures are still expected
to fall below freezing for the first time this season across the
Big Bend and Rio Grande Thursday night. Have issued a Freeze Watch
for these locations. Clouds really begin to clear Friday afternoon,
but chilly temperatures will stick around for one more day with
highs generally in the 40`s. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will lead to
warming temperatures this weekend before another cold front
arrives early next week. Very cold air will remain entrenched
across the northern U.S. and models typically have a hard time
handling these airmasses. Stay tuned to the forecast as we could
see more cold air next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  28  33  25 /   0  20  20   0
Carlsbad                       63  29  33  23 /   0  20  20   0
Dryden                         65  41  41  31 /   0  20  20   0
Fort Stockton                  67  32  33  28 /   0  20  30   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  26  30  23 /   0  20  20   0
Hobbs                          59  23  32  22 /   0  20  10   0
Marfa                          62  31  35  23 /   0  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  27  32  25 /   0  20  20   0
Odessa                         63  27  32  26 /   0  20  20   0
Wink                           65  30  34  25 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

44/29/44
519
FXUS64 KMAF 070956
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
356 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...Turning much colder tonight with a chance for wintry
precipitation...

Fog and low clouds have developed across the region this morning as
low level moisture returns behind a front that moved through
Tuesday. There could be a few slick spots across SE NM and the
northwest Permian Basin where temperatures are near freezing. These
conditions shouldn`t last long as southwesterly low level flow kicks
in later this morning and clears out most of the moisture.

Expect a fairly nice day (compared to what`s coming) with downslope
flow helping warm temperatures into the 50`s and 60`s. Thick high
clouds will keep it from getting any warmer. To our north, Arctic
air has been gathering all week and will be released down the
Plains today following a shortwave moving across the middle of the
U.S. The front is expected to arrive across northern areas around
sunset and reach the Rio Grande by Thursday morning. Strong gap
winds are expected with the front through Guadalupe Pass so have
issued a High Wind Warning there. The coldest air so far this
season will quickly filter in with many locations dropping below
freezing within a few hours of the frontal passage. For parts of
the Permian Basin this means the first hard freeze of the season
will arrive Thursday morning. We will issue a Hard Freeze Warning
for the eastern and southern Permian Basin where a hard freeze has
not occurred yet. Further south across the Big Bend and Rio
Grande, temperatures are not expected to reach freezing until
Friday morning. More on this shortly.

As the colder air deepens overnight, a weak mid level disturbance
will pass across the region creating enough lift for precipitation
to develop. Model soundings are coming into better agreement this
morning showing mostly snow across the Permian Basin, SE NM, and the
Upper Trans Pecos. Along the I-10 corridor, expect a mix of light
freezing rain and snow. This event may give us a few travel
headaches as cold air and moisture back up against the higher
terrain. Typically in this set-up we see light icing on some of the
roadways near the I-10/I-20 split. This will be monitored closely
for a possible Winter Weather Advisory. Further north, the snow is
not expected to cause much concern with only light accumulations,
but this will be watched as well.

Clouds will be slow to clear, but temperatures are still expected
to fall below freezing for the first time this season across the
Big Bend and Rio Grande Thursday night. Have issued a Freeze Watch
for these locations. Clouds really begin to clear Friday afternoon,
but chilly temperatures will stick around for one more day with
highs generally in the 40`s. Quasi-zonal flow aloft will lead to
warming temperatures this weekend before another cold front
arrives early next week. Very cold air will remain entrenched
across the northern U.S. and models typically have a hard time
handling these airmasses. Stay tuned to the forecast as we could
see more cold air next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  28  33  25 /   0  20  20   0
Carlsbad                       63  29  33  23 /   0  20  20   0
Dryden                         65  41  41  31 /   0  20  20   0
Fort Stockton                  67  32  33  28 /   0  20  30   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  26  30  23 /   0  20  20   0
Hobbs                          59  23  32  22 /   0  20  10   0
Marfa                          62  31  35  23 /   0  20  20   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  27  32  25 /   0  20  20   0
Odessa                         63  27  32  26 /   0  20  20   0
Wink                           65  30  34  25 /   0  20  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Freeze Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
     Big Bend Area-Crane-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-
     Upton-Ward.

     High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM MST Thursday for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Hard Freeze Warning from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for Ector-
     Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

44/29
370
FXUS64 KMAF 070430
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1030 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Satellite shows low clouds in KOZA at 008 ft and these CIGS are
expected to develop nwwd into the morning arriving at most sites
around 08Z-09Z. SE wind less than 10kts tonight and CIGS will
lift around 17Z-18Z as sw-w winds develop. Attention then turns
to Arctic FROPA late in the forecast period. Post-frontal MVFR
CIGs will develop between 03Z-06Z/Thur at MAF/HOB, elsewhere
afterwards.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 935 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to lower temperatures for tonight given the
current trends...particularly across the northern half of the
CWA. Clearing skies and fairly light winds have resulted in temps
rapidly cooling tonight and several locations across Lea County
and northern Permian Basin had already reached or were approaching
the previously forecasted lows at 9PM CST. Looks as though low
clouds will move in tonight but not for several more hours
therefore above mentioned locations were dropped several degrees.
Otherwise, there still remains a possibility of some areas of
light fog across the region early Wednesday morning. Also added
mention of patchy freezing fog across much of Lea County and
northern Permian Basin where below freezing temperatures are
expected. The remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are expected to develop nwwd after 06Z into all TAFs
sites except CNM with SE wind mostly less than 10kts overnight.
Low clouds will dissipate 15Z-18Z. Arctic cold front will hold
off passing until just after 00Z/Thur.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough extends across the country with an upper low
over northern Minnesota and another shortwave trough is over the
Pacific Northwest moving southeastward with the upper flow.  A cold
front moving through the area has resulted in cooler temperatures
today with highs only expected to be in the 40s across the northern
half of the Permian Basin and into southeast New Mexico.  The
surface high will move to the east of the area tonight with winds
returning to the south so low temperatures tonight will only be a
little cooler than last night.  NAM forecast soundings are showing a
chance of fog tonight for eastern portions of the area, but the GFS
is showing high cloud moving over the area so this may inhibit fog
formation.  Added a mention of patchy fog to the grids for tonight
although certainty is not high that it will develop.

The previously mentioned shortwave over the Pacific Northwest will
move over the Central Plains sending another, stronger cold front
south toward the CWA on Wednesday.  In advance of the cold front on
Wednesday, surface winds will become southwesterly then westerly
allowing for compressional warming resulting in temperatures warming
up into the 60s for much of the area.  The cold front is expected to
begin moving into the CWA Wednesday evening with brisk northeast
winds behind it.  The front will proceed through the rest of the CWA
early Thursday morning and will result in low temperatures cooling
to below freezing for all the CWA except for locations generally
south of Marfa and along the Rio Grande.  Some areas across the
Western Low Rolling Plains and the far eastern Permian Basin may
even have a hard freeze Thursday morning. Have issued a Freeze Watch
for Thursday morning for a hard freeze for these above mentioned
areas. There is also a chance of high winds through Guadalupe Pass
Thursday morning as the front moves into the area so have issued a
High Wind Watch from 09z to 15z Thursday.

An upper level shortwave is expected to move over the region on
Thursday and will coincide with the lift from the front.  Also, the
right rear quadrant of an upper jet is expected to move over the
region Thursday morning further enhancing lift.  The models are
producing a band of precipitation generally along the I-10 corridor
and along the higher terrain extending northward into the Permian
Basin and southeast New Mexico.  Due to the cold temperatures,
precipitation type will be of concern.  Forecast soundings seem to
indicate a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the
area.

The upper trough and upper lift will shift eastward by Thursday
night and the precipitation is expected to be over with by then as
well.  High temperatures during the day on Thursday will not warm up
much with highs only in the 30s across most of the CWA with mostly
cloudy skies and precipitation across the area. The cold air mass
will still be in place Friday morning resulting in low temperatures
reaching 28 degrees or below for all of the CWA except along the Rio
Grande River.  Temperatures will warm up a little bit on Friday
afternoon but still remain well below normal with highs mostly in
the 40s. Surface winds will increase out of the south to southwest
on Saturday with a surface trough developing during the afternoon so
high temperatures will likely warm up into the 60s across most of
the area.  The models are indicating another cold front moving into
the area on either Sunday or Monday but the extended forecast
appears to be dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  60  27  34 /   0   0  20  20
Carlsbad                       32  63  28  35 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         40  67  40  40 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Stockton                  38  68  31  36 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 33  53  25  30 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          30  57  22  33 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          31  62  32  36 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           34  62  28  34 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         35  62  28  34 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           34  63  30  36 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$
465
FXUS64 KMAF 070335
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
935 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Sent a quick update to lower temperatures for tonight given the
current trends...particularly across the northern half of the
CWA. Clearing skies and fairly light winds have resulted in temps
rapidly cooling tonight and several locations across Lea County
and northern Permian Basin had already reached or were approaching
the previously forecasted lows at 9PM CST. Looks as though low
clouds will move in tonight but not for several more hours
therefore above mentioned locations were dropped several degrees.
Otherwise, there still remains a possibility of some areas of
light fog across the region early Wednesday morning. Also added
mention of patchy freezing fog across much of Lea County and
northern Permian Basin where below freezing temperatures are
expected. The remainder of the forecast looks to be on track.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 525 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are expected to develop nwwd after 06Z into all TAFs
sites except CNM with SE wind mostly less than 10kts overnight.
Low clouds will dissipate 15Z-18Z. Arctic cold front will hold
off passing until just after 00Z/Thur.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough extends across the country with an upper low
over northern Minnesota and another shortwave trough is over the
Pacific Northwest moving southeastward with the upper flow.  A cold
front moving through the area has resulted in cooler temperatures
today with highs only expected to be in the 40s across the northern
half of the Permian Basin and into southeast New Mexico.  The
surface high will move to the east of the area tonight with winds
returning to the south so low temperatures tonight will only be a
little cooler than last night.  NAM forecast soundings are showing a
chance of fog tonight for eastern portions of the area, but the GFS
is showing high cloud moving over the area so this may inhibit fog
formation.  Added a mention of patchy fog to the grids for tonight
although certainty is not high that it will develop.

The previously mentioned shortwave over the Pacific Northwest will
move over the Central Plains sending another, stronger cold front
south toward the CWA on Wednesday.  In advance of the cold front on
Wednesday, surface winds will become southwesterly then westerly
allowing for compressional warming resulting in temperatures warming
up into the 60s for much of the area.  The cold front is expected to
begin moving into the CWA Wednesday evening with brisk northeast
winds behind it.  The front will proceed through the rest of the CWA
early Thursday morning and will result in low temperatures cooling
to below freezing for all the CWA except for locations generally
south of Marfa and along the Rio Grande.  Some areas across the
Western Low Rolling Plains and the far eastern Permian Basin may
even have a hard freeze Thursday morning. Have issued a Freeze Watch
for Thursday morning for a hard freeze for these above mentioned
areas. There is also a chance of high winds through Guadalupe Pass
Thursday morning as the front moves into the area so have issued a
High Wind Watch from 09z to 15z Thursday.

An upper level shortwave is expected to move over the region on
Thursday and will coincide with the lift from the front.  Also, the
right rear quadrant of an upper jet is expected to move over the
region Thursday morning further enhancing lift.  The models are
producing a band of precipitation generally along the I-10 corridor
and along the higher terrain extending northward into the Permian
Basin and southeast New Mexico.  Due to the cold temperatures,
precipitation type will be of concern.  Forecast soundings seem to
indicate a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the
area.

The upper trough and upper lift will shift eastward by Thursday
night and the precipitation is expected to be over with by then as
well.  High temperatures during the day on Thursday will not warm up
much with highs only in the 30s across most of the CWA with mostly
cloudy skies and precipitation across the area. The cold air mass
will still be in place Friday morning resulting in low temperatures
reaching 28 degrees or below for all of the CWA except along the Rio
Grande River.  Temperatures will warm up a little bit on Friday
afternoon but still remain well below normal with highs mostly in
the 40s. Surface winds will increase out of the south to southwest
on Saturday with a surface trough developing during the afternoon so
high temperatures will likely warm up into the 60s across most of
the area.  The models are indicating another cold front moving into
the area on either Sunday or Monday but the extended forecast
appears to be dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     33  60  27  34 /   0   0  20  20
Carlsbad                       32  63  28  35 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         40  67  40  40 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Stockton                  38  68  31  36 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 33  53  25  30 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          30  57  22  33 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          31  62  32  36 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           34  62  28  34 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         35  62  28  34 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           34  63  30  36 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

49/27
558
FXUS64 KMAF 062325
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
525 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS are expected to develop nwwd after 06Z into all TAFs
sites except CNM with SE wind mostly less than 10kts overnight.
Low clouds will dissipate 15Z-18Z. Arctic cold front will hold
off passing until just after 00Z/Thur.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough extends across the country with an upper low
over northern Minnesota and another shortwave trough is over the
Pacific Northwest moving southeastward with the upper flow.  A cold
front moving through the area has resulted in cooler temperatures
today with highs only expected to be in the 40s across the northern
half of the Permian Basin and into southeast New Mexico.  The
surface high will move to the east of the area tonight with winds
returning to the south so low temperatures tonight will only be a
little cooler than last night.  NAM forecast soundings are showing a
chance of fog tonight for eastern portions of the area, but the GFS
is showing high cloud moving over the area so this may inhibit fog
formation.  Added a mention of patchy fog to the grids for tonight
although certainty is not high that it will develop.

The previously mentioned shortwave over the Pacific Northwest will
move over the Central Plains sending another, stronger cold front
south toward the CWA on Wednesday.  In advance of the cold front on
Wednesday, surface winds will become southwesterly then westerly
allowing for compressional warming resulting in temperatures warming
up into the 60s for much of the area.  The cold front is expected to
begin moving into the CWA Wednesday evening with brisk northeast
winds behind it.  The front will proceed through the rest of the CWA
early Thursday morning and will result in low temperatures cooling
to below freezing for all the CWA except for locations generally
south of Marfa and along the Rio Grande.  Some areas across the
Western Low Rolling Plains and the far eastern Permian Basin may
even have a hard freeze Thursday morning. Have issued a Freeze Watch
for Thursday morning for a hard freeze for these above mentioned
areas. There is also a chance of high winds through Guadalupe Pass
Thursday morning as the front moves into the area so have issued a
High Wind Watch from 09z to 15z Thursday.

An upper level shortwave is expected to move over the region on
Thursday and will coincide with the lift from the front.  Also, the
right rear quadrant of an upper jet is expected to move over the
region Thursday morning further enhancing lift.  The models are
producing a band of precipitation generally along the I-10 corridor
and along the higher terrain extending northward into the Permian
Basin and southeast New Mexico.  Due to the cold temperatures,
precipitation type will be of concern.  Forecast soundings seem to
indicate a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the
area.

The upper trough and upper lift will shift eastward by Thursday
night and the precipitation is expected to be over with by then as
well.  High temperatures during the day on Thursday will not warm up
much with highs only in the 30s across most of the CWA with mostly
cloudy skies and precipitation across the area. The cold air mass
will still be in place Friday morning resulting in low temperatures
reaching 28 degrees or below for all of the CWA except along the Rio
Grande River.  Temperatures will warm up a little bit on Friday
afternoon but still remain well below normal with highs mostly in
the 40s. Surface winds will increase out of the south to southwest
on Saturday with a surface trough developing during the afternoon so
high temperatures will likely warm up into the 60s across most of
the area.  The models are indicating another cold front moving into
the area on either Sunday or Monday but the extended forecast
appears to be dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  60  27  34 /   0   0  20  20
Carlsbad                       35  63  28  35 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         41  67  40  40 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Stockton                  42  68  31  36 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 38  53  25  30 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          33  57  22  33 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          31  62  32  36 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           37  62  28  34 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         37  62  28  34 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           36  63  30  36 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$
393
FXUS64 KMAF 062038
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A broad upper trough extends across the country with an upper low
over northern Minnesota and another shortwave trough is over the
Pacific Northwest moving southeastward with the upper flow.  A cold
front moving through the area has resulted in cooler temperatures
today with highs only expected to be in the 40s across the northern
half of the Permian Basin and into southeast New Mexico.  The
surface high will move to the east of the area tonight with winds
returning to the south so low temperatures tonight will only be a
little cooler than last night.  NAM forecast soundings are showing a
chance of fog tonight for eastern portions of the area, but the GFS
is showing high cloud moving over the area so this may inhibit fog
formation.  Added a mention of patchy fog to the grids for tonight
although certainty is not high that it will develop.

The previously mentioned shortwave over the Pacific Northwest will
move over the Central Plains sending another, stronger cold front
south toward the CWA on Wednesday.  In advance of the cold front on
Wednesday, surface winds will become southwesterly then westerly
allowing for compressional warming resulting in temperatures warming
up into the 60s for much of the area.  The cold front is expected to
begin moving into the CWA Wednesday evening with brisk northeast
winds behind it.  The front will proceed through the rest of the CWA
early Thursday morning and will result in low temperatures cooling
to below freezing for all the CWA except for locations generally
south of Marfa and along the Rio Grande.  Some areas across the
Western Low Rolling Plains and the far eastern Permian Basin may
even have a hard freeze Thursday morning. Have issued a Freeze Watch
for Thursday morning for a hard freeze for these above mentioned
areas. There is also a chance of high winds through Guadalupe Pass
Thursday morning as the front moves into the area so have issued a
High Wind Watch from 09z to 15z Thursday.

An upper level shortwave is expected to move over the region on
Thursday and will coincide with the lift from the front.  Also, the
right rear quadrant of an upper jet is expected to move over the
region Thursday morning further enhancing lift.  The models are
producing a band of precipitation generally along the I-10 corridor
and along the higher terrain extending northward into the Permian
Basin and southeast New Mexico.  Due to the cold temperatures,
precipitation type will be of concern.  Forecast soundings seem to
indicate a mix of rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain across the
area.

The upper trough and upper lift will shift eastward by Thursday
night and the precipitation is expected to be over with by then as
well.  High temperatures during the day on Thursday will not warm up
much with highs only in the 30s across most of the CWA with mostly
cloudy skies and precipitation across the area. The cold air mass
will still be in place Friday morning resulting in low temperatures
reaching 28 degrees or below for all of the CWA except along the Rio
Grande River.  Temperatures will warm up a little bit on Friday
afternoon but still remain well below normal with highs mostly in
the 40s. Surface winds will increase out of the south to southwest
on Saturday with a surface trough developing during the afternoon so
high temperatures will likely warm up into the 60s across most of
the area.  The models are indicating another cold front moving into
the area on either Sunday or Monday but the extended forecast
appears to be dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     35  60  27  34 /   0   0  20  20
Carlsbad                       35  63  28  35 /   0   0  20  20
Dryden                         41  67  40  40 /   0   0  20  20
Fort Stockton                  42  68  31  36 /   0   0  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 38  53  25  30 /   0   0  20  20
Hobbs                          33  57  22  33 /   0   0  20  20
Marfa                          31  62  32  36 /   0   0  20  20
Midland Intl Airport           37  62  28  34 /   0   0  20  20
Odessa                         37  62  28  34 /   0   0  20  20
Wink                           36  63  30  36 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
     morning for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning
     for Ector-Glasscock-Howard-Midland-Mitchell-Scurry.

&&

$$

67/80
806
FXUS64 KMAF 061654
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1054 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through tonight,
except KMAF and KINK where MVFR, if not IFR, ceilings will set in
between 07/06Z and 07/09Z.  Expect the lower ceilings to mix out by
07/15Z to 07/17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, as an upper-lvl trough moves thru the MS Valley. At
the sfc, a cold front is moving thru the area, w/fropa thru KMAF
by 10Z. This front will take temps well blo normal this afternoon,
but a quick rebound to above-normal is anticipated Wednesday as
winds veer around to return flow, and then take on a westerly
component during the afternoon for a little downslope warming
action. Unfortunately, this will be short-lived, as a much
stronger arctic front plows into the region, w/fropa at KMAF
around 04Z Thu, bringing the coldest temps this fall to the
region. Biggest concerns this forecast will be possible
precipitation developing along the I-10 corridor as models bring
in a mid-lvl trough from the west. Combined w/weak isentropic
upglide, a mix of precip could develop along and behind the front.
This looks to be a short event, but may make travel hazardous on
I-10 late Wednesday night/Thursday. Precip type is, natch, the
main challenge. The NAM suggests the column will not be saturated
deep enough for SN, and calls for a FZRA scenario, whereas the GFS
is much more moist, favoring SN, especially in the east. Staying
pessimistic, we`ve opted for FZRA in the west, and FZRA or SN in
the east, mainly late Wed night into Thu morning, w/FZRA
continuing in the mtns Thu afternoon. QPFs should remain light,
but we`ll re-issue an SPS highliting these concerns. Frontal gap
winds will be on the rise at KGDP Wed night, but there are some
model disagreements as to how strong. for now, we`ll just mention
this in the HWO.

Temps Thursday should hover around freezing most locations, and
then slowly warm to normal by Saturday afternoon under NW flow
aloft.A dry pattern then ensues under zonal flow aloft into the
extended, w/temps remaining above-normal thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  38  61  28 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       55  37  61  30 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         63  41  65  38 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  58  44  66  31 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 53  41  53  27 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          45  33  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  34  61  30 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           49  38  64  29 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         51  39  64  29 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           53  37  66  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
636
FXUS64 KMAF 061105
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
505 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
Cold front currently crossing the I-20 corridor will slow and
settle along the Pecos River this afternoon. Gusty northerly winds
this morning will weaken and veer to the east later this
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, as an upper-lvl trough moves thru the MS Valley.  At the
sfc, a cold front is moving thru the area, w/fropa thru KMAF by 10Z.
This front will take temps well blo normal this afternoon, but a
quick rebound to above-normal is anticipated Wednesday as winds veer
around to return flow, and then take on a westerly component during
the afternoon for a little downslope warming action.  Unfortunately,
this will be short-lived, as a much stronger arctic front plows into
the region, w/fropa at KMAF around 04Z Thu, bringing the coldest
temps this fall to the region.  Biggest concerns this forecast will
be possible precipitation developing along the I-10 corridor as
models bring in a mid-lvl trough from the west.  Combined w/weak
isentropic upglide, a mix of precip could develop along and behind
the front.  This looks to be a short event, but may make travel
hazardous on I-10 late Wednesday night/Thursday.  Precip type is,
natch, the main challenge.  The NAM suggests the column will not be
saturated deep enough for SN, and calls for a FZRA scenario, whereas
the GFS is much more moist, favoring SN, especially in the east.
Staying pessimistic, we`ve opted for FZRA in the west, and FZRA or
SN in the east, mainly late Wed night into Thu morning, w/FZRA
continuing in the mtns Thu afternoon.  QPFs should remain light, but
we`ll re-issue an SPS highliting these concerns.  Frontal gap
winds will be on the rise at KGDP Wed night, but there are some
model disagreements as to how strong.  for now, we`ll just mention
this in the HWO.

Temps Thursday should hover around freezing most locations, and
then slowly warm to normal by Saturday afternoon under NW flow
aloft.A dry pattern then ensues under zonal flow aloft into the
extended, w/temps remaining above-normal thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  38  61  28 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       55  37  61  30 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         63  41  65  38 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  58  44  66  31 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 53  41  53  27 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          45  33  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  34  61  30 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           49  38  64  29 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         51  39  64  29 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           53  37  66  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29
268
FXUS64 KMAF 061030
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
430 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows zonal flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, as an upper-lvl trough moves thru the MS Valley.  At the
sfc, a cold front is moving thru the area, w/fropa thru KMAF by 10Z.
This front will take temps well blo normal this afternoon, but a
quick rebound to above-normal is anticipated Wednesday as winds veer
around to return flow, and then take on a westerly component during
the afternoon for a little downslope warming action.  Unfortunately,
this will be short-lived, as a much stronger arctic front plows into
the region, w/fropa at KMAF around 04Z Thu, bringing the coldest
temps this fall to the region.  Biggest concerns this forecast will
be possible precipitation developing along the I-10 corridor as
models bring in a mid-lvl trough from the west.  Combined w/weak
isentropic upglide, a mix of precip could develop along and behind
the front.  This looks to be a short event, but may make travel
hazardous on I-10 late Wednesday night/Thursday.  Precip type is,
natch, the main challenge.  The NAM suggests the column will not be
saturated deep enough for SN, and calls for a FZRA scenario, whereas
the GFS is much more moist, favoring SN, especially in the east.
Staying pessimistic, we`ve opted for FZRA in the west, and FZRA or
SN in the east, mainly late Wed night into Thu morning, w/FZRA
continuing in the mtns Thu afternoon.  QPFs should remain light, but
we`ll re-issue an SPS highliting these concerns.  Frontal gap
winds will be on the rise at KGDP Wed night, but there are some
model disagreements as to how strong.  for now, we`ll just mention
this in the HWO.

Temps Thursday should hover around freezing most locations, and
then slowly warm to normal by Saturday afternoon under NW flow
aloft.A dry pattern then ensues under zonal flow aloft into the
extended, w/temps remaining above-normal thru the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     49  38  61  28 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       55  37  61  30 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         63  41  65  38 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  58  44  66  31 /   0   0   0  20
Guadalupe Pass                 53  41  53  27 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          45  33  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          61  34  61  30 /   0   0   0  20
Midland Intl Airport           49  38  64  29 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         51  39  64  29 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           53  37  66  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

29/44
665
FXUS64 KMAF 060520
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1120 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR. A front will move through in the morning with the wind
shifting around to the NW to N.  Wind may be gusty in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  38  48  38 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  37  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  43  63  39 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  63  40  59  42 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  55  40 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  32  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  31  61  31 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  36  51  38 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  35  52  39 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           63  35  56  36 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/29
612
FXUS64 KMAF 052345
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
545 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. The wind will come around to the west tonight before becoming
N/NW early Tuesday as a front blows into the area. May be gusty
during the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 153 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Weak northwesterly to westerly flow aloft will prevail through the
next 7 days with temperatures initially moderating this afternoon as
a result.  But an upper trough will broaden/deepen over the central
U.S. through midweek, and aid an arctic airmass dropping into the
region beginning Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Precipitation chances will be nil the rest of today through
Wednesday due to dry, westerly flow aloft.  However, the modified
southern extent of an arctic airmass will push south to near the
Pecos River Tuesday morning, with high temperatures ending up being
5 to 15 degrees below normal over locations along and north of
Interstate 20 Tuesday afternoon.  This airmass will continue to
reside over eastern portions of the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and keep easternmost areas a little below normal
in the afternoon.

On Wednesday evening, the arctic airmass will begin to impinge upon
locations north of Interstate 20 in earnest, with much colder air
spreading rapidly southward across the Rio Grande by Thursday
morning.  Northerly surface winds of at least 15-25 mph will drop
wind chill values to the teens and 20s behind the front.  Low
temperatures Thursday morning will end up in the upper teens north
to near 40 along the Rio Grande, with highs in the 30s over all but
40s along the Rio Grande. There could be strong winds in Guadalupe
Pass late Wednesday night and thursday morning behind the front,
so will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Of more concern will be a weak mid level shortwave trough, the RRQ
of a 110+kt h25 jet and low level upslope flow possibly providing
enough lift for precipitation to break out along and behind the
front.  Forecast model soundings indicate there could be a mix of
light freezing rain, sleet and snow from the higher terrain of
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas, eastward across the Stockton
Plateau, southern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos through midday
Thursday.  Will continue with a 20 to 30 Pops in these areas, but
forego issuance of a Winter Storm Watch due to expected low amounts.
Will reissue a Special Weather Statement to highlight colder
conditions, and perhaps wintry precipitation.  As we near these time
frames, a Winter Weather Advisory may be issued for late Wednesday
night and Thursday morning.

A widespread hard freeze is expected over all but the Presidio Valley
and Big Bend Park Thursday morning, but these areas will likely see
a hard freeze Friday morning.  After that, temperatures will begin
to moderate Friday afternoon, with near to above normal temperatures
Saturday through Monday. It will remain dry during this tome too.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  48  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       37  55  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  63  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  40  59  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  55  40  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          32  46  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          31  61  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  51  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         35  52  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           35  56  36  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
621
FXUS64 KMAF 051953
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
153 PM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Weak northwesterly to westerly flow aloft will prevail through the
next 7 days with temperatures initially moderating this afternoon as
a result.  But an upper trough will broaden/deepen over the central
U.S. through midweek, and aid an arctic airmass dropping into the
region beginning Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Precipitation chances will be nil the rest of today through
Wednesday due to dry, westerly flow aloft.  However, the modified
southern extent of an arctic airmass will push south to near the
Pecos River Tuesday morning, with high temperatures ending up being
5 to 15 degrees below normal over locations along and north of
Interstate 20 Tuesday afternoon.  This airmass will continue to
reside over eastern portions of the area Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and keep easternmost areas a little below normal
in the afternoon.

On Wednesday evening, the arctic airmass will begin to impinge upon
locations north of Interstate 20 in earnest, with much colder air
spreading rapidly southward across the Rio Grande by Thursday
morning.  Northerly surface winds of at least 15-25 mph will drop
wind chill values to the teens and 20s behind the front.  Low
temperatures Thursday morning will end up in the upper teens north
to near 40 along the Rio Grande, with highs in the 30s over all but
40s along the Rio Grande. There could be strong winds in Guadalupe
Pass late Wednesday night and thursday morning behind the front,
so will make a mention in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Of more concern will be a weak mid level shortwave trough, the RRQ
of a 110+kt h25 jet and low level upslope flow possibly providing
enough lift for precipitation to break out along and behind the
front.  Forecast model soundings indicate there could be a mix of
light freezing rain, sleet and snow from the higher terrain of
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas, eastward across the Stockton
Plateau, southern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos through midday
Thursday.  Will continue with a 20 to 30 Pops in these areas, but
forego issuance of a Winter Storm Watch due to expected low amounts.
Will reissue a Special Weather Statement to highlight colder
conditions, and perhaps wintry precipitation.  As we near these time
frames, a Winter Weather Advisory may be issued for late Wednesday
night and Thursday morning.

A widespread hard freeze is expected over all but the Presidio Valley
and Big Bend Park Thursday morning, but these areas will likely see
a hard freeze Friday morning.  After that, temperatures will begin
to moderate Friday afternoon, with near to above normal temperatures
Saturday through Monday. It will remain dry during this tome too.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  48  38  55 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       37  55  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         43  63  39  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  40  59  42  63 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 37  55  40  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          32  46  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          31  61  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  51  38  58 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         35  52  39  58 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           35  56  36  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

80/67
109
FXUS64 KMAF 051724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1124 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings and visibilities will continue to improve and skies
should be mostly sunny this afternoon with elevated southwest to
west winds. VFR conditions are expected through the period after
conditions improve this afternoon. A cold front will move into
the area tonight/Tuesday morning with elevated and gusty northerly
winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 910 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to allow the Winter Weather Advisory to expire, and to
lower PoPs and sky coverage over the eastern zones.

DISCUSSION...

An upper low southeast of the Big Bend this morning will continue to
lift off to the northeast.  This will allow wraparound precipitation
over the southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend
region to wane, as evidenced in down trending radar returns and
warming cloud tops on Infrared Satellite Imagery.  Considering all
this, will lower PoPs over the eastern zones and allow the rest
of the Winter Weather Advisory to expire.  Freezing fog along the
Pecos River in southeastern New Mexico will last at least another
hour as sunshine and warming temperatures will dissipate the fog.
Aside from adjusting PoPs down, decreased cloud cover over the
east also. An update to the forecast will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

Water vapor imagery shows an upper low churning just s of the Big
Bend area with radar showing a precip shield across Trans Pecos.
Meanwhile IR imagery continues to show cooling clouds tops across
the Big Bend area and 7h temps/85-5h thickness are supportive of
6500 ft snow levels in the Chinati/Chisos Mtns, higher in the
Davis. Between 10 PM Sun-3 AM Mon .28" of rain had fallen at the
Chisos Basin RAWS (5400 ft) and so supportive of snow in the
higher elevations. By 12Z snow levels will have a chance to fall
to as low as 5500 ft in the Chisos Mtns and right around 6000 ft
in the Glass Mtns, but precip will tend to be decreasing around
then. The Davis Mtns still look to be the least favored of the
mtns to get snow, but above 7000 ft is it thought to be snowing
there, webcams are no help this morning. We will opt to continue
advisory, but will raise snow levels for the Davis Mtns. Otherwise
this precip shield will have trouble making it N of I-20 and we
will continue to a show a sharp PoP gradient and trend PoPs down
on the nrn side of the gradient btwn 12Z-18Z with little if any
precip after 18Z. High temps today from the U50s-M60s. A cold
front will move in Tue AM and will make it to around I10, so
todays warm-up will be interrupted Tue. The main "cold show" will
premier Wed afternoon across the N and into areas S of I20 late
afternoon/evening. NAM12 continues to be quickest and ECMWF the
slowest. We tend to prefer the earlier arrival solutions. Post
frontal MSLP gradients are tight and windy conditions will be
favored 00Z-09Z/Thur for areas N of I20 and 03Z-12Z/Thur S of I20.
There continues to be potential for wintry wx 06Z-18Z/Thur along
and either side of the I10 corridor including the I10-20 Split,
Davis Mtns and Ft Stockton areas. There is still model variability
but GFS/NAM12 are adamant that precip will occur. With a minor
shrtwv trof, strong upslope component and mid level moisture
source that will be cold enough for ice crystal we are becoming
more concerned about a corridor of a winter wx that could impact
S Culberson, Jeff Davis, N Brewster, S Reeves and Pecos counties.
For we will address this in a SPS and will start to include snow
in the forecast. We will also eventually issue an NPW for a "Hard
Freeze" for areas that have yet to have one and this will probably
be Thur AM, although Fri AM will be colder. High temps mostly in
30s Thur and 40s Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  38  48  38 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  37  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  43  63  39 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  63  40  59  42 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  55  40 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  32  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  31  61  31 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  36  51  38 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  35  52  39 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           63  35  56  36 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
748
FXUS64 KMAF 051510
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
910 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Winter Weather Advisory to expire, and to
lower PoPs and sky coverage over the eastern zones.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

An upper low southeast of the Big Bend this morning will continue to
lift off to the northeast.  This will allow wraparound precipitation
over the southern Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend
region to wane, as evidenced in down trending radar returns and
warming cloud tops on Infrared Satellite Imagery.  Considering all
this, will lower PoPs over the eastern zones and allow the rest
of the Winter Weather Advisory to expire.  Freezing fog along the
Pecos River in southeastern New Mexico will last at least another
hour as sunshine and warming temperatures will dissipate the fog.
Aside from adjusting PoPs down, decreased cloud cover over the
east also. An update to the forecast will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 537 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

AVIATION...

Low clouds have struggled to move north, thus area terminals are
VFR this morning, though patchy fog could briefly result in MVFR
visibility through about 14Z. An area of light rain currently
affecting FST may result in low-end MVFR ceilings and visibility
through about 15Z, with precipitation diminishing and shifting
east thereafter. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with
winds increasing out of the WSW this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

Water vapor imagery shows an upper low churning just s of the Big
Bend area with radar showing a precip shield across Trans Pecos.
Meanwhile IR imagery continues to show cooling clouds tops across
the Big Bend area and 7h temps/85-5h thickness are supportive of
6500 ft snow levels in the Chinati/Chisos Mtns, higher in the
Davis. Between 10 PM Sun-3 AM Mon .28" of rain had fallen at the
Chisos Basin RAWS (5400 ft) and so supportive of snow in the
higher elevations. By 12Z snow levels will have a chance to fall
to as low as 5500 ft in the Chisos Mtns and right around 6000 ft
in the Glass Mtns, but precip will tend to be decreasing around
then. The Davis Mtns still look to be the least favored of the
mtns to get snow, but above 7000 ft is it thought to be snowing
there, webcams are no help this morning. We will opt to continue
advisory, but will raise snow levels for the Davis Mtns. Otherwise
this precip shield will have trouble making it N of I-20 and we
will continue to a show a sharp PoP gradient and trend PoPs down
on the nrn side of the gradient btwn 12Z-18Z with little if any
precip after 18Z. High temps today from the U50s-M60s. A cold
front will move in Tue AM and will make it to around I10, so
todays warm-up will be interrupted Tue. The main "cold show" will
premier Wed afternoon across the N and into areas S of I20 late
afternoon/evening. NAM12 continues to be quickest and ECMWF the
slowest. We tend to prefer the earlier arrival solutions. Post
frontal MSLP gradients are tight and windy conditions will be
favored 00Z-09Z/Thur for areas N of I20 and 03Z-12Z/Thur S of I20.
There continues to be potential for wintry wx 06Z-18Z/Thur along
and either side of the I10 corridor including the I10-20 Split,
Davis Mtns and Ft Stockton areas. There is still model variability
but GFS/NAM12 are adamant that precip will occur. With a minor
shrtwv trof, strong upslope component and mid level moisture
source that will be cold enough for ice crystal we are becoming
more concerned about a corridor of a winter wx that could impact
S Culberson, Jeff Davis, N Brewster, S Reeves and Pecos counties.
For we will address this in a SPS and will start to include snow
in the forecast. We will also eventually issue an NPW for a "Hard
Freeze" for areas that have yet to have one and this will probably
be Thur AM, although Fri AM will be colder. High temps mostly in
30s Thur and 40s Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  38  48  38 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  37  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  43  63  39 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  63  40  59  42 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  55  40 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  32  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  31  61  31 /  10   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  36  51  38 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  35  52  39 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           63  35  56  36 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
020
FXUS64 KMAF 051137
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
537 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds have struggled to move north, thus area terminals are
VFR this morning, though patchy fog could briefly result in MVFR
visibility through about 14Z. An area of light rain currently
affecting FST may result in low-end MVFR ceilings and visibility
through about 15Z, with precipitation diminishing and shifting
east thereafter. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail, with
winds increasing out of the WSW this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 306 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper low churning just s of the Big
Bend area with radar showing a precip shield across Trans Pecos.
Meanwhile IR imagery continues to show cooling clouds tops across
the Big Bend area and 7h temps/85-5h thickness are supportive of
6500 ft snow levels in the Chinati/Chisos Mtns, higher in the
Davis. Between 10 PM Sun-3 AM Mon .28" of rain had fallen at the
Chisos Basin RAWS (5400 ft) and so supportive of snow in the
higher elevations. By 12Z snow levels will have a chance to fall
to as low as 5500 ft in the Chisos Mtns and right around 6000 ft
in the Glass Mtns, but precip will tend to be decreasing around
then. The Davis Mtns still look to be the least favored of the
mtns to get snow, but above 7000 ft is it thought to be snowing
there, webcams are no help this morning. We will opt to continue
advisory, but will raise snow levels for the Davis Mtns. Otherwise
this precip shield will have trouble making it N of I-20 and we
will continue to a show a sharp PoP gradient and trend PoPs down
on the nrn side of the gradient btwn 12Z-18Z with little if any
precip after 18Z. High temps today from the U50s-M60s. A cold
front will move in Tue AM and will make it to around I10, so
todays warm-up will be interrupted Tue. The main "cold show" will
premier Wed afternoon across the N and into areas S of I20 late
afternoon/evening. NAM12 continues to be quickest and ECMWF the
slowest. We tend to prefer the earlier arrival solutions. Post
frontal MSLP gradients are tight and windy conditions will be
favored 00Z-09Z/Thur for areas N of I20 and 03Z-12Z/Thur S of I20.
There continues to be potential for wintry wx 06Z-18Z/Thur along
and either side of the I10 corridor including the I10-20 Split,
Davis Mtns and Ft Stockton areas. There is still model variability
but GFS/NAM12 are adamant that precip will occur. With a minor
shrtwv trof, strong upslope component and mid level moisture
source that will be cold enough for ice crystal we are becoming
more concerned about a corridor of a winter wx that could impact
S Culberson, Jeff Davis, N Brewster, S Reeves and Pecos counties.
For we will address this in a SPS and will start to include snow
in the forecast. We will also eventually issue an NPW for a "Hard
Freeze" for areas that have yet to have one and this will probably
be Thur AM, although Fri AM will be colder. High temps mostly in
30s Thur and 40s Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  38  48  38 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  37  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  43  63  39 /  50   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  63  40  59  42 /  30   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  55  40 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  32  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  31  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  36  51  38 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  35  52  39 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           63  35  56  36 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Big Bend
     Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

&&

$$
556
FXUS64 KMAF 050906
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
306 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery shows an upper low churning just s of the Big
Bend area with radar showing a precip shield across Trans Pecos.
Meanwhile IR imagery continues to show cooling clouds tops across
the Big Bend area and 7h temps/85-5h thickness are supportive of
6500 ft snow levels in the Chinati/Chisos Mtns, higher in the
Davis. Between 10 PM Sun-3 AM Mon .28" of rain had fallen at the
Chisos Basin RAWS (5400 ft) and so supportive of snow in the
higher elevations. By 12Z snow levels will have a chance to fall
to as low as 5500 ft in the Chisos Mtns and right around 6000 ft
in the Glass Mtns, but precip will tend to be decreasing around
then. The Davis Mtns still look to be the least favored of the
mtns to get snow, but above 7000 ft is it thought to be snowing
there, webcams are no help this morning. We will opt to continue
advisory, but will raise snow levels for the Davis Mtns. Otherwise
this precip shield will have trouble making it N of I-20 and we
will continue to a show a sharp PoP gradient and trend PoPs down
on the nrn side of the gradient btwn 12Z-18Z with little if any
precip after 18Z. High temps today from the U50s-M60s. A cold
front will move in Tue AM and will make it to around I10, so
todays warm-up will be interrupted Tue. The main "cold show" will
premier Wed afternoon across the N and into areas S of I20 late
afternoon/evening. NAM12 continues to be quickest and ECMWF the
slowest. We tend to prefer the earlier arrival solutions. Post
frontal MSLP gradients are tight and windy conditions will be
favored 00Z-09Z/Thur for areas N of I20 and 03Z-12Z/Thur S of I20.
There continues to be potential for wintry wx 06Z-18Z/Thur along
and either side of the I10 corridor including the I10-20 Split,
Davis Mtns and Ft Stockton areas. There is still model variability
but GFS/NAM12 are adamant that precip will occur. With a minor
shrtwv trof, strong upslope component and mid level moisture
source that will be cold enough for ice crystal we are becoming
more concerned about a corridor of a winter wx that could impact
S Culberson, Jeff Davis, N Brewster, S Reeves and Pecos counties.
For we will address this in a SPS and will start to include snow
in the forecast. We will also eventually issue an NPW for a "Hard
Freeze" for areas that have yet to have one and this will probably
be Thur AM, although Fri AM will be colder. High temps mostly in
30s Thur and 40s Fri.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     59  38  48  38 /  20   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       64  37  55  35 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         62  43  63  39 /  50   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  63  40  59  42 /  30   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 56  37  55  40 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          60  32  46  30 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          56  31  61  31 /  30   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  36  51  38 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         59  35  52  39 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                           63  35  56  36 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for Big Bend
     Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

&&

$$
400
FXUS64 KMAF 050517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1117 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low clouds have started to return northward. Expect widespread
MVFR cigs and vsbys with isolated IFR conditions toward morning.
Wind will come around to the W tomorrow with skies rapidly
clearing from west to east.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low over Mexico will provide more precipitation chances over
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight and Monday, or at
least through Monday morning.  Precipitation mode will mainly be
rain, but the Davis, Glass, Chinati and Chisos Mountains above 6000
feet could see a mix of rain and snow, or all snow.  There will be a
warmup Monday, before the southernmost extent of a sprawling arctic
airmass eases into the region Tuesday afternoon, which briefly
retreats Tuesday night/Wednesday before very cold air dumps south
through the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday.

The ua low over the Mexican states of Chihuahua/Sinaloa/Durango this
afternoon will eject northeastward through tonight, then into
central Texas Monday afternoon.  This track will result in the
precipitation shield extending southwest to northeast over the
southeastern half of the forecast area, or along and south of a
Davis Mountains to western Low Rolling Plains line.  Precipitation
will fall as light to moderate rain, except in the higher elevations
of the Davis/Glass and Chisos/Chinati Mountains.  Fairly decent
agreement on the track of the ua low amongst models indicate h7 and
h85-h5 thicknesses, will drop below 0C, and 415-418 dam,
respectively.  This will likely result in all snow above 6000 feet.
Well above normal PWats of 0.75-1" along and south of Interstate
20 through tonight, will make 1-3 inches of snow possible in all of
these mountains, but especially in the Chisos/Chinati Mountains
where the better chance of/heavier precipitation, and some
indication of elevated instability will reside from late this
afternoon and overnight.  Amounts in the higher elevations of the
Davis/Glass Mountains may not be as high, but these will be included
in a Winter Weather Advisory nonetheless.  Temperatures in the
lower levels of the atmosphere will be too warm for more than a mix
of rain and snow between 4000 and 6000 feet, so may include a mix of
rain and snow for the Marfa Plateau and Alpine areas with little to
no accumulation expected.

Precipitation will wind down Monday morning, and expect temperatures
to warm to near normal levels under weak northwest flow aloft.
Westerly flow aloft will prevail over the region Tuesday, however
the mentioned arctic airmass will be oozing south through the
central U.S. Plains in the wake of a northern stream ua trough.  The
modified southern extent of the above mentioned arctic airmass will
arrive Tuesday morning, but an expanding longwave trough over the
Great Basin will keep westerly flow aloft over our region and mix
the shallow cold airmass out Tuesday afternoon/night.  A shortwave
trough within the parent ua trough will eject eastward over the
central U.S. Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday, sending the arctic
airmass plunging south through the forecast area.  Will reissue a
special Weather Statement concerning this cold airmass, which could
be the coldest we have seen in a couple of years.  There are a few
indications some precipitation could fall behind the arctic front
Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but will leave any mention out
until there is much better agreement than currently seen with the
latest model runs.  Temperatures could moderate to near normal
levels as early as Saturday due to mainly westerly flow aloft
shunting the arctic airmass eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  57  39  52 /  30  40   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  64  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  63  45  68 /  80  50   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  64  43  65 /  70  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  56  37  56 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  60  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  31  61 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  59  39  57 /  40  30   0   0
Odessa                         37  59  38  58 /  40  20   0   0
Wink                           37  63  38  61 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

&&

$$
170
FXUS64 KMAF 050010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
610 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds have receded southward but should return tonight.
Expect widespread MVFR cigs and vsbys with isolated IFR conditions
toward morning. Wind will come around to the W tomorrow with skies
rapidly clearing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 203 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper low over Mexico will provide more precipitation chances over
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight and Monday, or at
least through Monday morning.  Precipitation mode will mainly be
rain, but the Davis, Glass, Chinati and Chisos Mountains above 6000
feet could see a mix of rain and snow, or all snow.  There will be a
warmup Monday, before the southernmost extent of a sprawling arctic
airmass eases into the region Tuesday afternoon, which briefly
retreats Tuesday night/Wednesday before very cold air dumps south
through the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday.

The ua low over the Mexican states of Chihuahua/Sinaloa/Durango this
afternoon will eject northeastward through tonight, then into
central Texas Monday afternoon.  This track will result in the
precipitation shield extending southwest to northeast over the
southeastern half of the forecast area, or along and south of a
Davis Mountains to western Low Rolling Plains line.  Precipitation
will fall as light to moderate rain, except in the higher elevations
of the Davis/Glass and Chisos/Chinati Mountains.  Fairly decent
agreement on the track of the ua low amongst models indicate h7 and
h85-h5 thicknesses, will drop below 0C, and 415-418 dam,
respectively.  This will likely result in all snow above 6000 feet.
Well above normal PWats of 0.75-1" along and south of Interstate
20 through tonight, will make 1-3 inches of snow possible in all of
these mountains, but especially in the Chisos/Chinati Mountains
where the better chance of/heavier precipitation, and some
indication of elevated instability will reside from late this
afternoon and overnight.  Amounts in the higher elevations of the
Davis/Glass Mountains may not be as high, but these will be included
in a Winter Weather Advisory nonetheless.  Temperatures in the
lower levels of the atmosphere will be too warm for more than a mix
of rain and snow between 4000 and 6000 feet, so may include a mix of
rain and snow for the Marfa Plateau and Alpine areas with little to
no accumulation expected.

Precipitation will wind down Monday morning, and expect temperatures
to warm to near normal levels under weak northwest flow aloft.
Westerly flow aloft will prevail over the region Tuesday, however
the mentioned arctic airmass will be oozing south through the
central U.S. Plains in the wake of a northern stream ua trough.  The
modified southern extent of the above mentioned arctic airmass will
arrive Tuesday morning, but an expanding longwave trough over the
Great Basin will keep westerly flow aloft over our region and mix
the shallow cold airmass out Tuesday afternoon/night.  A shortwave
trough within the parent ua trough will eject eastward over the
central U.S. Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday, sending the arctic
airmass plunging south through the forecast area.  Will reissue a
special Weather Statement concerning this cold airmass, which could
be the coldest we have seen in a couple of years.  There are a few
indications some precipitation could fall behind the arctic front
Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but will leave any mention out
until there is much better agreement than currently seen with the
latest model runs.  Temperatures could moderate to near normal
levels as early as Saturday due to mainly westerly flow aloft
shunting the arctic airmass eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  57  39  52 /  30  40   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  64  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  63  45  68 /  80  50   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  64  43  65 /  70  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  56  37  56 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  60  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  31  61 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  59  39  57 /  40  30   0   0
Odessa                         37  59  38  58 /  40  20   0   0
Wink                           37  63  38  61 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Monday for Big Bend Area-
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa Plateau.

&&

$$
465
FXUS64 KMAF 042003
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
203 PM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An upper low over Mexico will provide more precipitation chances over
southeastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight and Monday, or at
least through Monday morning.  Precipitation mode will mainly be
rain, but the Davis, Glass, Chinati and Chisos Mountains above 6000
feet could see a mix of rain and snow, or all snow.  There will be a
warmup Monday, before the southernmost extent of a sprawling arctic
airmass eases into the region Tuesday afternoon, which briefly
retreats Tuesday night/Wednesday before very cold air dumps south
through the forecast area Wednesday night and Thursday.

The ua low over the Mexican states of Chihuahua/Sinaloa/Durango this
afternoon will eject northeastward through tonight, then into
central Texas Monday afternoon.  This track will result in the
precipitation shield extending southwest to northeast over the
southeastern half of the forecast area, or along and south of a
Davis Mountains to western Low Rolling Plains line.  Precipitation
will fall as light to moderate rain, except in the higher elevations
of the Davis/Glass and Chisos/Chinati Mountains.  Fairly decent
agreement on the track of the ua low amongst models indicate h7 and
h85-h5 thicknesses, will drop below 0C, and 415-418 dam,
respectively.  This will likely result in all snow above 6000 feet.
Well above normal PWats of 0.75-1" along and south of Interstate
20 through tonight, will make 1-3 inches of snow possible in all of
these mountains, but especially in the Chisos/Chinati Mountains
where the better chance of/heavier precipitation, and some
indication of elevated instability will reside from late this
afternoon and overnight.  Amounts in the higher elevations of the
Davis/Glass Mountains may not be as high, but these will be included
in a Winter Weather Advisory nonetheless.  Temperatures in the
lower levels of the atmosphere will be too warm for more than a mix
of rain and snow between 4000 and 6000 feet, so may include a mix of
rain and snow for the Marfa Plateau and Alpine areas with little to
no accumulation expected.

Precipitation will wind down Monday morning, and expect temperatures
to warm to near normal levels under weak northwest flow aloft.
Westerly flow aloft will prevail over the region Tuesday, however
the mentioned arctic airmass will be oozing south through the
central U.S. Plains in the wake of a northern stream ua trough.  The
modified southern extent of the above mentioned arctic airmass will
arrive Tuesday morning, but an expanding longwave trough over the
Great Basin will keep westerly flow aloft over our region and mix
the shallow cold airmass out Tuesday afternoon/night.  A shortwave
trough within the parent ua trough will eject eastward over the
central U.S. Plains Tuesday night/Wednesday, sending the arctic
airmass plunging south through the forecast area.  Will reissue a
special Weather Statement concerning this cold airmass, which could
be the coldest we have seen in a couple of years.  There are a few
indications some precipitation could fall behind the arctic front
Wednesday night/Thursday morning, but will leave any mention out
until there is much better agreement than currently seen with the
latest model runs.  Temperatures could moderate to near normal
levels as early as Saturday due to mainly westerly flow aloft
shunting the arctic airmass eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     38  57  39  52 /  30  40   0   0
Carlsbad                       31  64  38  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         47  63  45  68 /  80  50   0   0
Fort Stockton                  39  64  43  65 /  70  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 32  56  37  56 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          30  60  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          33  56  31  61 /  70  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           36  59  39  57 /  40  30   0   0
Odessa                         37  59  38  58 /  40  20   0   0
Wink                           37  63  38  61 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST
     Monday for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Marfa
     Plateau.

&&

$$

80/67
033
FXUS64 KMAF 041723
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1123 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ceilings and visibilities are expected to gradually improve
throughout the afternoon. Lower ceilings and visibilities are
again expected for all TAF sites except CNM beginning around 06z
and lasting through at least 15z Monday. Winds will weaken through
the afternoon and are expected to be light and somewhat variable
through Monday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low INVOF Bay of Calif with
a subtropical jet having shifted e along with the higher theta-e
air aloft. As such precip potential for areas N of I-20 does
diminish today, in part to more shallow/waning isentropic lift
along I295-300. Some sunshine is possible across SE NM this PM
too with highs mostly in 50s N of I-20. By 12Z this morning the
upper low will be moving e and more substantial thickness cooling
will occur across the Trans Pecos. The position of the upper low
will be favorable for increased upper level divergence with some
redevelopment of the mid/upper level jet too. As such the chance
of precip will increase this PM and this will be accompanied by 7h
temps falling to/below 0C across the Trans Pecos. For trend sake
we note that 00Z/04 NAM12 is earliest and farthest N-NW with
precip. What this will amounts to is that precip will transition
from occurring in the region southerly divergence mid level flow
to colder wrap around precip by 06Z/Mon. Considering 7h temps and
85h-5h thickness there will be the potential for snow from the
Glass Mtns along the Pecos/Brewster Co line swd into the Big Bend
Region. Snow level will be around 6500-7000 ft by/before 12Z Mon.
Glass Mtns peaks are around 6000 ft as are other peak just s of
Alpine, of course higher in the Big Bend`s Chisos Mtns and thus
they more favored for snow. Initial thoughts are that Chisos Mtns
could easily fall into advisory criteria snow of 1-3", higher
above 7000 ft early Mon AM. For now we will is an SPS, additional
highlights possibly issued later today? The Davis/Chinati Mtns are
less favorable according to model consensus, but NAM12 does show
potential for accumulating snow btwn 06Z-09Z/Mon there too. The
E-SE PB will have one last chance for rain Mon AM from the wrap
around precip. Otherwise with some sunshine Mon PM highs of 55-65
are expected. A weak cold front will follow Tue in wake of the
upper low keeping high temps in the 50s N of I-20. Meanwhile
arctic air is building in the Yukon Region and will start its
move swd arriving in PB/SE NM probably before 00Z/Thur, even well
before? With NE winds of 20-25 mph for a several hrs behind the
front temps will fall rapidly with lows mostly in the M20s Thur AM
(mid teens nrn Lea Co) and highs 35-40 Thur PM. High winds will be
possible thru GDP Pass with the cold air. Gradual warming Fri/Sat
and continued dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  38  58  39 /  10  20  30   0
Carlsbad                       49  31  64  38 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  47  65  44 /  60  70  30   0
Fort Stockton                  47  39  64  43 /  30  60  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  32  55  37 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          47  30  60  34 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  34  56  31 /  60  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  36  61  39 /  10  20  20   0
Odessa                         49  37  60  38 /  10  20  20   0
Wink                           49  37  64  38 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/
308
FXUS64 KMAF 041138
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Challenging flight weather again today, as MVFR/IFR conditions in
low clouds and fog continue to affect all terminals except CNM.
IFR/LIFR conditions are possible for several hours this morning,
with MVFR at CNM, though slow improvement to VFR is expected
through this afternoon and evening. FST will likely remain
MVFR/IFR through the period, as additional rain is expected to
affect the terminal this afternoon and tonight, with LIFR
cigs/visibility possible at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 410 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low INVOF Bay of Calif with
a subtropical jet having shifted e along with the higher theta-e
air aloft. As such precip potential for areas N of I-20 does
diminish today, in part to more shallow/waning isentropic lift
along I295-300. Some sunshine is possible across SE NM this PM
too with highs mostly in 50s N of I-20. By 12Z this morning the
upper low will be moving e and more substantial thickness cooling
will occur across the Trans Pecos. The position of the upper low
will be favorable for increased upper level divergence with some
redevelopment of the mid/upper level jet too. As such the chance
of precip will increase this PM and this will be accompanied by 7h
temps falling to/below 0C across the Trans Pecos. For trend sake
we note that 00Z/04 NAM12 is earliest and farthest N-NW with
precip. What this will amounts to is that precip will transition
from occurring in the region southerly divergence mid level flow
to colder wrap around precip by 06Z/Mon. Considering 7h temps and
85h-5h thickness there will be the potential for snow from the
Glass Mtns along the Pecos/Brewster Co line swd into the Big Bend
Region. Snow level will be around 6500-7000 ft by/before 12Z Mon.
Glass Mtns peaks are around 6000 ft as are other peak just s of
Alpine, of course higher in the Big Bend`s Chisos Mtns and thus
they more favored for snow. Initial thoughts are that Chisos Mtns
could easily fall into advisory criteria snow of 1-3", higher
above 7000 ft early Mon AM. For now we will is an SPS, additional
highlights possibly issued later today? The Davis/Chinati Mtns are
less favorable according to model consensus, but NAM12 does show
potential for accumulating snow btwn 06Z-09Z/Mon there too. The
E-SE PB will have one last chance for rain Mon AM from the wrap
around precip. Otherwise with some sunshine Mon PM highs of 55-65
are expected. A weak cold front will follow Tue in wake of the
upper low keeping high temps in the 50s N of I-20. Meanwhile
arctic air is building in the Yukon Region and will start its
move swd arriving in PB/SE NM probably before 00Z/Thur, even well
before? With NE winds of 20-25 mph for a several hrs behind the
front temps will fall rapidly with lows mostly in the M20s Thur AM
(mid teens nrn Lea Co) and highs 35-40 Thur PM. High winds will be
possible thru GDP Pass with the cold air. Gradual warming Fri/Sat
and continued dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  38  58  39 /  10  20  30   0
Carlsbad                       49  31  64  38 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  47  65  44 /  60  70  30   0
Fort Stockton                  47  39  64  43 /  30  60  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  32  55  37 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          47  30  60  34 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  34  56  31 /  60  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  36  61  39 /  10  20  20   0
Odessa                         49  37  60  38 /  10  20  20   0
Wink                           49  37  64  38 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
550
FXUS64 KMAF 041010
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
410 AM CST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery depicts an upper low INVOF Bay of Calif with
a subtropical jet having shifted e along with the higher theta-e
air aloft. As such precip potential for areas N of I-20 does
diminish today, in part to more shallow/waning isentropic lift
along I295-300. Some sunshine is possible across SE NM this PM
too with highs mostly in 50s N of I-20. By 12Z this morning the
upper low will be moving e and more substantial thickness cooling
will occur across the Trans Pecos. The position of the upper low
will be favorable for increased upper level divergence with some
redevelopment of the mid/upper level jet too. As such the chance
of precip will increase this PM and this will be accompanied by 7h
temps falling to/below 0C across the Trans Pecos. For trend sake
we note that 00Z/04 NAM12 is earliest and farthest N-NW with
precip. What this will amounts to is that precip will transition
from occurring in the region southerly divergence mid level flow
to colder wrap around precip by 06Z/Mon. Considering 7h temps and
85h-5h thickness there will be the potential for snow from the
Glass Mtns along the Pecos/Brewster Co line swd into the Big Bend
Region. Snow level will be around 6500-7000 ft by/before 12Z Mon.
Glass Mtns peaks are around 6000 ft as are other peak just s of
Alpine, of course higher in the Big Bend`s Chisos Mtns and thus
they more favored for snow. Initial thoughts are that Chisos Mtns
could easily fall into advisory criteria snow of 1-3", higher
above 7000 ft early Mon AM. For now we will is an SPS, additional
highlights possibly issued later today? The Davis/Chinati Mtns are
less favorable according to model consensus, but NAM12 does show
potential for accumulating snow btwn 06Z-09Z/Mon there too. The
E-SE PB will have one last chance for rain Mon AM from the wrap
around precip. Otherwise with some sunshine Mon PM highs of 55-65
are expected. A weak cold front will follow Tue in wake of the
upper low keeping high temps in the 50s N of I-20. Meanwhile
arctic air is building in the Yukon Region and will start its
move swd arriving in PB/SE NM probably before 00Z/Thur, even well
before? With NE winds of 20-25 mph for a several hrs behind the
front temps will fall rapidly with lows mostly in the M20s Thur AM
(mid teens nrn Lea Co) and highs 35-40 Thur PM. High winds will be
possible thru GDP Pass with the cold air. Gradual warming Fri/Sat
and continued dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  38  58  39 /  10  20  30   0
Carlsbad                       49  31  64  38 /  10  10   0   0
Dryden                         53  47  65  44 /  60  70  30   0
Fort Stockton                  47  39  64  43 /  30  60  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 44  32  55  37 /  20  10   0   0
Hobbs                          47  30  60  34 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          44  34  56  31 /  60  60  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  36  61  39 /  10  20  20   0
Odessa                         49  37  60  38 /  10  20  20   0
Wink                           49  37  64  38 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
480
FXUS64 KMAF 040517
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1117 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly IFR conditions in occasional light drizzle and fog is
expected at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals
overnight and most of Sunday morning. Expecting some improvement
toward 04/18Z with mainly MVFR ceilings by Sunday afternoon. North
to northeast winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Colder than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as
rain, and a mix of wintry precipitation in the mountains, continues
ahead of a cutoff upper level low.  Despite a slightly different
track of the ua low from previous runs, temperatures will remain
near to below normal into next week before an even colder airmass
impinges upon the region mid next week.

A cutoff low swirling over the Gulf of California, or about halfway
down the Baja Peninsula, will track slowly southeastward today and
tonight, then eastward over north central Mexico Sunday, before
ejecting northeastward into central Texas Sunday night and Monday.
Two or three rounds of rain will develop through Sunday night as
discrete shortwave troughs eject over the region ahead of/around this
upper low, in addition to very moist low level upslope flow resulting
in patchy drizzle and fog in between rain rounds.

The 03/12Z MAF sounding indicated a PWat of 0.94 inches, which
verified model progs of 0.75 - 1.0".  This atmospheric water
content is 2-3 S.D. above normal for this time of year.  Several
locations had 0.5-0.75" of rainfall in the last 24 hours, with a
couple of locations coming in around 1".  Although the ua low
looks like it will take a track a bit farther south than previous
model runs indicated, we could see similar amounts due in part to
isolated thunderstorms, but mainly south of Interstate 10 before
precipitation ends Sunday night/Monday from northwest to southeast.
Model forecast soundings support a mix of rain and snow in the
Guadalupe, Davis and Chisos Mountains sporadically tonight, and
Sunday morning, but marginal temperatures through the atmospheric
column and relatively warm ground temperatures will likely limit
accumulations to little, to none. Considered adding freezing rain,
but again, relatively warm ground should prevent much if any ice
accumulation in the higher elevations of the mountains.  The only
other near term concern is northeast gap winds through Guadalupe
Pass. Since wind speeds will trend down this afternoon, will
cancel the High Wind Warning.

Temperatures will moderate to near normal Monday and Tuesday,
although there are some indications a cold front may dip south into
the area Tuesday, be pushed out of the region Tuesday night, then be
followed by an arctic airmass Wednesday or Wednesday night.  There
is also some indication the base of the ua trough, which will help
usher the colder air into the region, will move over the area and
possibly develop some precipitation behind the arctic front
Wednesday night and Thursday.  Since there is a fair amount of
disagreement on this occurring, will not carry any mention of
precipitation for these time frames.  Initial indications are low
temperatures will be 5-15 degrees below normal, and high
temperatures 15-25 degrees below normal, behind the arctic front.
Model disparities will prevent any further detail at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  41  48  40 /  80  60  30  40
Carlsbad                       43  37  47  33 /  80  50  20  10
Dryden                         57  47  51  41 /  70  70  70  80
Fort Stockton                  49  39  45  38 /  80  70  70  60
Guadalupe Pass                 40  33  42  33 /  80  60  40  10
Hobbs                          41  36  45  31 /  80  50  10  10
Marfa                          51  35  42  31 /  80  70  70  50
Midland Intl Airport           46  40  48  39 /  80  60  40  40
Odessa                         45  39  47  38 /  80  60  40  30
Wink                           47  41  47  39 /  80  60  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$
385
FXUS64 KMAF 032258
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
458 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Continued mainly IFR conditions in occasional light rain or
drizzle and fog is expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals overnight and most of Sunday morning. Expecting
some improvement with mainly MVFR ceilings by Sunday afternoon
with precipitation and fog ending. The exception will be KFST,
where IFR conditions may continue into the afternoon. North to
northeast winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 211 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Colder than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as
rain, and a mix of wintry precipitation in the mountains, continues
ahead of a cutoff upper level low.  Despite a slightly different
track of the ua low from previous runs, temperatures will remain
near to below normal into next week before an even colder airmass
impinges upon the region mid next week.

A cutoff low swirling over the Gulf of California, or about halfway
down the Baja Peninsula, will track slowly southeastward today and
tonight, then eastward over north central Mexico Sunday, before
ejecting northeastward into central Texas Sunday night and Monday.
Two or three rounds of rain will develop through Sunday night as
discrete shortwave troughs eject over the region ahead of/around this
upper low, in addition to very moist low level upslope flow resulting
in patchy drizzle and fog in between rain rounds.

The 03/12Z MAF sounding indicated a PWat of 0.94 inches, which
verified model progs of 0.75 - 1.0".  This atmospheric water
content is 2-3 S.D. above normal for this time of year.  Several
locations had 0.5-0.75" of rainfall in the last 24 hours, with a
couple of locations coming in around 1".  Although the ua low
looks like it will take a track a bit farther south than previous
model runs indicated, we could see similar amounts due in part to
isolated thunderstorms, but mainly south of Interstate 10 before
precipitation ends Sunday night/Monday from northwest to southeast.
Model forecast soundings support a mix of rain and snow in the
Guadalupe, Davis and Chisos Mountains sporadically tonight, and
Sunday morning, but marginal temperatures through the atmospheric
column and relatively warm ground temperatures will likely limit
accumulations to little, to none. Considered adding freezing rain,
but again, relatively warm ground should prevent much if any ice
accumulation in the higher elevations of the mountains.  The only
other near term concern is northeast gap winds through Guadalupe
Pass. Since wind speeds will trend down this afternoon, will
cancel the High Wind Warning.

Temperatures will moderate to near normal Monday and Tuesday,
although there are some indications a cold front may dip south into
the area Tuesday, be pushed out of the region Tuesday night, then be
followed by an arctic airmass Wednesday or Wednesday night.  There
is also some indication the base of the ua trough, which will help
usher the colder air into the region, will move over the area and
possibly develop some precipitation behind the arctic front
Wednesday night and Thursday.  Since there is a fair amount of
disagreement on this occurring, will not carry any mention of
precipitation for these time frames.  Initial indications are low
temperatures will be 5-15 degrees below normal, and high
temperatures 15-25 degrees below normal, behind the arctic front.
Model disparities will prevent any further detail at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  48  40  58 /  60  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       37  47  33  62 /  50  20  10  10
Dryden                         47  51  41  63 /  70  70  80  30
Fort Stockton                  39  45  38  62 /  70  70  60  20
Guadalupe Pass                 33  42  33  54 /  60  40  10  10
Hobbs                          36  45  31  57 /  50  10  10  10
Marfa                          35  42  31  56 /  70  70  50  10
Midland Intl Airport           40  48  39  60 /  60  40  40  20
Odessa                         39  47  38  60 /  60  40  30  20
Wink                           41  47  39  63 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/80
655
FXUS64 KMAF 032011
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
211 PM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Colder than normal temperatures will persist through the weekend as
rain, and a mix of wintry precipitation in the mountains, continues
ahead of a cutoff upper level low.  Despite a slightly different
track of the ua low from previous runs, temperatures will remain
near to below normal into next week before an even colder airmass
impinges upon the region mid next week.

A cutoff low swirling over the Gulf of California, or about halfway
down the Baja Peninsula, will track slowly southeastward today and
tonight, then eastward over north central Mexico Sunday, before
ejecting northeastward into central Texas Sunday night and Monday.
Two or three rounds of rain will develop through Sunday night as
discrete shortwave troughs eject over the region ahead of/around this
upper low, in addition to very moist low level upslope flow resulting
in patchy drizzle and fog in between rain rounds.

The 03/12Z MAF sounding indicated a PWat of 0.94 inches, which
verified model progs of 0.75 - 1.0".  This atmospheric water
content is 2-3 S.D. above normal for this time of year.  Several
locations had 0.5-0.75" of rainfall in the last 24 hours, with a
couple of locations coming in around 1".  Although the ua low
looks like it will take a track a bit farther south than previous
model runs indicated, we could see similar amounts due in part to
isolated thunderstorms, but mainly south of Interstate 10 before
precipitation ends Sunday night/Monday from northwest to southeast.
Model forecast soundings support a mix of rain and snow in the
Guadalupe, Davis and Chisos Mountains sporadically tonight, and
Sunday morning, but marginal temperatures through the atmospheric
column and relatively warm ground temperatures will likely limit
accumulations to little, to none. Considered adding freezing rain,
but again, relatively warm ground should prevent much if any ice
accumulation in the higher elevations of the mountains.  The only
other near term concern is northeast gap winds through Guadalupe
Pass. Since wind speeds will trend down this afternoon, will
cancel the High Wind Warning.

Temperatures will moderate to near normal Monday and Tuesday,
although there are some indications a cold front may dip south into
the area Tuesday, be pushed out of the region Tuesday night, then be
followed by an arctic airmass Wednesday or Wednesday night.  There
is also some indication the base of the ua trough, which will help
usher the colder air into the region, will move over the area and
possibly develop some precipitation behind the arctic front
Wednesday night and Thursday.  Since there is a fair amount of
disagreement on this occurring, will not carry any mention of
precipitation for these time frames.  Initial indications are low
temperatures will be 5-15 degrees below normal, and high
temperatures 15-25 degrees below normal, behind the arctic front.
Model disparities will prevent any further detail at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     41  48  40  58 /  60  30  40  30
Carlsbad                       37  47  33  62 /  50  20  10  10
Dryden                         47  51  41  63 /  70  70  80  30
Fort Stockton                  39  45  38  62 /  70  70  60  20
Guadalupe Pass                 33  42  33  54 /  60  40  10  10
Hobbs                          36  45  31  57 /  50  10  10  10
Marfa                          35  42  31  56 /  70  70  50  10
Midland Intl Airport           40  48  39  60 /  60  40  40  20
Odessa                         39  47  38  60 /  60  40  30  20
Wink                           41  47  39  63 /  60  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

67/80
384
FXUS64 KMAF 031734
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1134 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings and visibilities are expected through Sunday morning.
There will likely be a slight improvement this afternoon before
conditions get worse tonight. Areas of fog will be possible
tonight and early Sunday morning. Rain showers will also increase
across the area around 00z. Winds will generally stay out of the
north to northeast and weaken this evening before strengthening
around 15z tomorrow.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool and wet weather will continue through this
weekend, with precipitation tapering off on Monday. Temperatures
look to remain below normal through next week, with another
surge of cold air next Wednesday.

The initial round of rainfall associated with an approaching
upper low has moved through the area as of early this morning,
accompanied by a few rumbles of thunder. Additional rounds of
rainfall are expected through the remainder of the day, with
isolated thunderstorms possible, particularly across southern
portions of the area in closer proximity to a cold front that
pushed through the region overnight. The primary driving force
behind our unsettled weather this weekend is a large cutoff low,
currently located over the Gulf of California near Sonora. Models
indicate that this low will continue to drop south and then
meander eastward across Northern Mexico through Sunday. The low
will then begin to open up as it passes south of the Big Bend
Area, before lifting northeast on Monday.

Cold air advection in the wake of last night`s front will result
in well below normal temperatures both today and Sunday, with
highs generally in the lower 40s to middle 50s areawide. The
exception will be today through the Rio Grande Valley, where a few
spots may still reach into the 60s. Precipitable water values over
the region are unusually high for this time of year, ranging from
around 0.75" to around 1.00", roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
above normal per NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thus, thanks to the
deep moisture in place over the region, and as lift continues to
increase ahead of the approaching low, widespread rainfall amounts
through this weekend could exceed 1.00", with highest amounts
expected through the Big Bend Area, Rio Grande Valley, and
Stockton Plateau. Also of note is the potential for a mix of rain
and snow across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains
today through Monday morning. Some locations above 7500 feet could
briefly see all snow, though any accumulations are expected to be
light and below Advisory criteria. The rain/snow mix could also
affect the higher elevations of the Davis and Chisos Mountains
late tonight through Monday morning, though little to no
accumulation is expected.

In addition to widespread precipitation as well as patchy fog due
to continued moist upslope flow this weekend, strong winds are
expected to continue to affect Guadalupe Pass through this
afternoon. Latest guidance indicates that the strongest winds will
begin to diminish this evening, thus have shortened the duration
of the High Wind Warning, which is now in effect until 5 PM MST
today.

As the low lifts northeast on Monday, precipitation will gradually
diminish from northwest to southeast, with temperatures expected
to to warm back into the middle 50s to lower 60s. The slightly
below normal temperatures will continue Tuesday, though another
strong cold front will move through the region on Wednesday,
resulting in well below normal temperatures once again for the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  41  47  40 /  80  60  50  50
Carlsbad                       43  37  47  34 /  80  60  50  30
Dryden                         57  47  51  41 /  70  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  49  39  45  38 /  80  70  70  60
Guadalupe Pass                 40  33  42  33 /  80  60  50  30
Hobbs                          41  36  45  33 /  80  60  50  30
Marfa                          51  35  42  31 /  80  70  70  60
Midland Intl Airport           46  40  47  39 /  80  60  50  50
Odessa                         45  39  46  38 /  80  60  50  50
Wink                           47  41  47  39 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/
338
FXUS64 KMAF 031132
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
532 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread IFR CIGS and MVFR vsby are in place with radar showing
-RA INVOF PEQ/INK/HOB. Have kept mostly TEMPO groups thru 16Z for
fluctuating CIGS/VSBY as -RA moves across. There will probably be
a lull in precip after 16Z-17Z before increasing again late this
afternoon evening, but mostly IFR CIGS will persist.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool and wet weather will continue through this
weekend, with precipitation tapering off on Monday. Temperatures
look to remain below normal through next week, with another
surge of cold air next Wednesday.

The initial round of rainfall associated with an approaching
upper low has moved through the area as of early this morning,
accompanied by a few rumbles of thunder. Additional rounds of
rainfall are expected through the remainder of the day, with
isolated thunderstorms possible, particularly across southern
portions of the area in closer proximity to a cold front that
pushed through the region overnight. The primary driving force
behind our unsettled weather this weekend is a large cutoff low,
currently located over the Gulf of California near Sonora. Models
indicate that this low will continue to drop south and then
meander eastward across Northern Mexico through Sunday. The low
will then begin to open up as it passes south of the Big Bend
Area, before lifting northeast on Monday.

Cold air advection in the wake of last night`s front will result
in well below normal temperatures both today and Sunday, with
highs generally in the lower 40s to middle 50s areawide. The
exception will be today through the Rio Grande Valley, where a few
spots may still reach into the 60s. Precipitable water values over
the region are unusually high for this time of year, ranging from
around 0.75" to around 1.00", roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
above normal per NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thus, thanks to the
deep moisture in place over the region, and as lift continues to
increase ahead of the approaching low, widespread rainfall amounts
through this weekend could exceed 1.00", with highest amounts
expected through the Big Bend Area, Rio Grande Valley, and
Stockton Plateau. Also of note is the potential for a mix of rain
and snow across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains
today through Monday morning. Some locations above 7500 feet could
briefly see all snow, though any accumulations are expected to be
light and below Advisory criteria. The rain/snow mix could also
affect the higher elevations of the Davis and Chisos Mountains
late tonight through Monday morning, though little to no
accumulation is expected.

In addition to widespread precipitation as well as patchy fog due
to continued moist upslope flow this weekend, strong winds are
expected to continue to affect Guadalupe Pass through this
afternoon. Latest guidance indicates that the strongest winds will
begin to diminish this evening, thus have shortened the duration
of the High Wind Warning, which is now in effect until 5 PM MST
today.

As the low lifts northeast on Monday, precipitation will gradually
diminish from northwest to southeast, with temperatures expected
to to warm back into the middle 50s to lower 60s. The slightly
below normal temperatures will continue Tuesday, though another
strong cold front will move through the region on Wednesday,
resulting in well below normal temperatures once again for the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  41  47  40 /  80  60  50  50
Carlsbad                       43  37  47  34 /  80  60  50  30
Dryden                         57  47  51  41 /  70  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  49  39  45  38 /  80  70  70  60
Guadalupe Pass                 40  33  42  33 /  80  60  50  30
Hobbs                          41  36  45  33 /  80  60  50  30
Marfa                          51  35  42  31 /  80  70  70  60
Midland Intl Airport           46  40  47  39 /  80  60  50  50
Odessa                         45  39  46  38 /  80  60  50  50
Wink                           47  41  47  39 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$
883
FXUS64 KMAF 031031
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
431 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Unseasonably cool and wet weather will continue through this
weekend, with precipitation tapering off on Monday. Temperatures
look to remain below normal through next week, with another
surge of cold air next Wednesday.

The initial round of rainfall associated with an approaching
upper low has moved through the area as of early this morning,
accompanied by a few rumbles of thunder. Additional rounds of
rainfall are expected through the remainder of the day, with
isolated thunderstorms possible, particularly across southern
portions of the area in closer proximity to a cold front that
pushed through the region overnight. The primary driving force
behind our unsettled weather this weekend is a large cutoff low,
currently located over the Gulf of California near Sonora. Models
indicate that this low will continue to drop south and then
meander eastward across Northern Mexico through Sunday. The low
will then begin to open up as it passes south of the Big Bend
Area, before lifting northeast on Monday.

Cold air advection in the wake of last night`s front will result
in well below normal temperatures both today and Sunday, with
highs generally in the lower 40s to middle 50s areawide. The
exception will be today through the Rio Grande Valley, where a few
spots may still reach into the 60s. Precipitable water values over
the region are unusually high for this time of year, ranging from
around 0.75" to around 1.00", roughly 2 to 3 standard deviations
above normal per NAEFS and GEFS anomalies. Thus, thanks to the
deep moisture in place over the region, and as lift continues to
increase ahead of the approaching low, widespread rainfall amounts
through this weekend could exceed 1.00", with highest amounts
expected through the Big Bend Area, Rio Grande Valley, and
Stockton Plateau. Also of note is the potential for a mix of rain
and snow across the higher elevations of the Guadalupe Mountains
today through Monday morning. Some locations above 7500 feet could
briefly see all snow, though any accumulations are expected to be
light and below Advisory criteria. The rain/snow mix could also
affect the higher elevations of the Davis and Chisos Mountains
late tonight through Monday morning, though little to no
accumulation is expected.

In addition to widespread precipitation as well as patchy fog due
to continued moist upslope flow this weekend, strong winds are
expected to continue to affect Guadalupe Pass through this
afternoon. Latest guidance indicates that the strongest winds will
begin to diminish this evening, thus have shortened the duration
of the High Wind Warning, which is now in effect until 5 PM MST
today.

As the low lifts northeast on Monday, precipitation will gradually
diminish from northwest to southeast, with temperatures expected
to to warm back into the middle 50s to lower 60s. The slightly
below normal temperatures will continue Tuesday, though another
strong cold front will move through the region on Wednesday,
resulting in well below normal temperatures once again for the
end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  41  47  40 /  80  60  50  50
Carlsbad                       43  37  47  34 /  80  60  50  30
Dryden                         57  47  51  41 /  70  70  70  70
Fort Stockton                  49  39  45  38 /  80  70  70  60
Guadalupe Pass                 40  33  42  33 /  80  60  50  30
Hobbs                          41  36  45  33 /  80  60  50  30
Marfa                          51  35  42  31 /  80  70  70  60
Midland Intl Airport           46  40  47  39 /  80  60  50  50
Odessa                         45  39  46  38 /  80  60  50  50
Wink                           47  41  47  39 /  80  60  60  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

&&

$$

49/84