Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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714
FXUS64 KMAF 051959
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
259 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The low pressure system over the southwest that has been responsible
for our unsettled weather pattern the past few days is finally
opened up and is lifting to the northeast as a negatively tilted
open wave, though a jet rounding the base of the trough as well as a
few subtle shortwaves in the flow are enough support for another
round of convection this afternoon/evening, given potent
antecedent conditions across the area. Convective debris leftover
from this morning`s convection has been slow to wear off over
eastern portions of the forecast area, but that said, continued
clearing and highs in the 80s this afternoon will yield at least
moderate instability along and east of the dryline. High
resolution guidance for this afternoon/evening indicates two
potential "bulls-eyes" most favorable for severe convection in our
area, where MUCAPE values potentially in excess of 2500 J/kg.
These areas are across the northern Permian Basin and Western Low
Rolling Plains, as well as the Lower Trans Pecos and Stockton
Plateau. Steepening lapse rates as the upper trough lifts across
the region would indicate large hail as being the primary threat,
but given the prevalence of leftover boundaries across the area,
as well as a favorable environment for anticipated storm motion
east of the dryline toward central Texas, a brief tornado could
also be possible.

Currently, a line of non-severe storms extends along the rather
muddled dryline from roughly Snyder south-southwestward through Big
Spring toward Sanderson.  Storms have also begun to develop over the
higher terrain of southeast New Mexico, and these are expected to
move out over the southeast New Mexico Plains as we head further
into the afternoon/evening. Behind the aforementioned line of
storms, diurnal destabilization has resulted in the development of
an agitated cu field extending from the Trans Pecos to the higher
terrain of the Davis and Glass Mountains to the south and the
Guadalupe Mountains to the West.  The main question remains whether
or not the dryline will shift west this evening, and if so, how far,
given subsidence in the wake of the departing upper trough. Latest
HRRR and NSSL WRF indicate the development of storms across the
Trans Pecos and central Permian Basin, but overall, the focus for
strongest storms and with greatest coverage should be further
east, with motion vectors carrying storms into a more favorable
environment toward central Texas, especially through the latter
part of the evening.

For the extended, models are in agreement of yet another trough
digging south over the Pacific coast and developing into a 500mb
closed low as it drifts eastward across the Four Corners Region,
keeping the dryline in place across the area. However, given the
exact location of the dryline with the upcoming trough has yet to
be established for later this week, have gone ahead and maintained
the chance PoPs through the extended, and did not deviate much
from the blended model solution. Temperature- wise, a warming
trend will continue through the end of the week and into the
weekend, with temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across much
of the area, before a cool down late in the weekend and early next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 61  84  63  85  /  20  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              64  84  66  86  /  30  20  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                55  87  55  87  /  10   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  67  85  69  91  /  30  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  86  63  91  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  79  56  79  /   0   0  10   0
HOBBS NM                   55  82  58  82  /  10   0  20  20
MARFA TX                   44  84  45  84  /   0   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  84  66  89  /  20  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  63  84  65  88  /  20  10  20  20
WINK TX                    58  87  62  88  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/84

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805
FXUS64 KMAF 051821
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
121 PM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 05/18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist at all area terminals save KMAF and KFST.
At these sites, there is a possibility of TSRA in the 19Z-00Z time
frame, call it a 1 in 4 chance, but not high enough to include in
these forecasts. Before sunrise Wednesday, Gulf stratus is expected
to affect KMAF and KFST in about the 10Z-14Z time range before
burning off by mid morning.  Winds will be west to southwest this
afternoon before backing to a southerly direction this evening, then
veering back around to the southwest by mid morning Wednesday.

&&

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...

A complicated setup this afternoon. The overnight convection has
left its mark on the CWA, with the MCV now migrating over SWrn OK
and an extensive shield of low clouds east of a Big Spring -
Garden City - Langtry line. The significant boundaries are a quasi-
dryline extending from Persimmon Gap NNEwd to just east of Midland
where it intersects an outflow boundary.  This boundary is presently
located from the eastern slopes of the Sacramentos/Guadalupes bending
SSEwd to the triple point just east of Midland then from there
(more of an occlusion) NEwd to near Childress.

Convection is firing off the Sacramentos now, and agitated MOGR CU
is evident along the dryline south of Midland, where scattered cells
are going up ATTM. The supplemental 18Z sounding from KMAF gives
an LI of -6 and uncapped at a bit over 2000 J/kg. Right now, shear
looks to be a limiting factor, with multicells the dominant mode.
Conditional severe looks to be high with any updraft that can
remain discrete, probably taking on more of an HP mode given ample
PWAT and a weakness in the wind field in the 800-600 hPa. The
dryline is expected to retreat Wwd later this afternoon, bringing
with it a chance of CI maybe back as far as a Seminole - Alpine
line. With potentially cooler air north and east of the triple
point, and evapotranspiration adding moisture into the "dry" air,
it`s going to be difficult to pinpoint other areas of CI other
than the aforementioned mountains and along the dryline. Basically
we`re in wait-and-see mode.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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955
FXUS64 KMAF 051113
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
613 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to extend the Flash Flood Watch over portions of the
forecast area, and issue the latest Aviation Discussion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Will extend portions of the Flash Flood Watch until 05/15Z as
backing flow ahead of a potent ua trough has resulted in the
continuation of convection over northern portions of the forecast
area.  An outflow boundary over the northern reaches of the forecast
area is being intersected by a low level jet, and along with mid
level lift ahead of the mentioned shortwave trough, resulting in
said convection.  There does not appear to be enough instability for
much in the way of severe thunderstorms, however heavy rainfall with
1 to 2 inch amounts do appear likely.  Portions of Gaines, Andrews,
Dawson and Borden counties have been hit the hardest so far, and
unfortunately all of these may see another round of heavy rainfall.
Will extend the Watch in these counties.  As far as Eddy and Lea
counties in New Mexico, it appears the tail end of the line of
convection will make it`s way eastward out of southeastern Lea
County in the next hour, and is moving rapidly enough to leave these
counties out.  Think the convection will begin to wane around 05/13Z
or 05/14Z as the low level jet decreases.  Therefore, will not add
Scurry or Mitchell counties to the Watch.  An update will follow
shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will linger over at least KMAF past 05/12Z, otherwise
expect convection to stay north and east of the rest of the
terminals.  MVFR ceilings will also affect KMAF, but there should be
clearing from west to east with only KHOB and perhaps KINK seeing
any lower ceilings.  Southwest to westerly winds will increase and
become gusty by late this morning, but VFR conditions will
prevail.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

67

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351
FXUS64 KMAF 050841
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
341 AM CDT Tue May 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Convection is persisting over the northern third of the forecast
area early this morning, although allowed the Tornado Watch to
expire at 05/07Z since instability waned and storms were definitely
not as organized as earlier.  Expect most of this convection to move
off to the north and the east of the County Warning Area by 05/12Z,
so will not mettle with the current configuration or duration of the
Flash Flood Watch.  A cutoff low currently over Arizona is progged
to open and eject northeastward over new Mexico today and tonight.
There is still a fairly potent shortwave trough rounding the base of
this upper low, so more thunderstorms will be possible later today,
just how much coverage being the question of the day.  Despite the
mentioned shortwave trough, a dry slot will jut northeastward over
the region along with it, so precipitable water will be on the
decrease, and the dryline will move eastward during the day.
Therefore, have reconfigured PoPs, geared mainly for this afternoon
when the atmosphere will have had a chance to recover.  The eastern
Permian Basin into the Lower trans Pecos appear to be the most
likely areas for convective development this afternoon.  Instability
will be on the order of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg and 0 to 6 km Bulk Shear
of 40 to 50kt should be enough for a few severe thunderstorms along
the dryline, while mid level lapse rates struggling to surpass 7
C/Km may be somewhat of a detriment.  Will include mention of a few
severe storms in the Hazardous Weather Outlook, along with locally
heavy rainfall.

The dryline will remain over the region as another ua trough drops
south along the west coast to replace the one to eject today.
Therefore, have kept thunderstorm chances in the forecast through
the week due to a series of shortwave troughs ejecting northeastward
over the region within southwest flow aloft.  More severe
thunderstorms will be possible, but will have to pin down which days
later this week when we are a little closer to those time frames.
Temperatures will rise above normal by midweek, and stay there
through week/s end before dropping back a bit Saturday and Sunday as
the next ua trough ejects much in the same manner as the current
one.  There are indications yet another ua trough may move across
the southwest/southern ConUS next week.  Will have to wait to see
how feasible this is in a few days when models hone in on one
solution or another.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  61  84  63  /  20  20  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              82  65  84  66  /  50  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                81  53  85  55  /  20  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  87  66  86  67  /  30  30  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  61  86  63  /  20  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  53  79  55  /  10   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   78  55  82  57  /  20  10  10  20
MARFA TX                   77  44  82  46  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  64  84  65  /  20  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  82  63  84  65  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                    85  59  87  61  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT early this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

67

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146
FXUS64 KMAF 050442
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will still be possible at KMAF, and perhaps KHOB
and KINK, through 05/08Z.  Thereafter, think convection will be
north and east of area terminals.  MVFR ceilings are expected to
affect all area terminals overnight, with some IFR ceilings at
KHOB.  Southerly winds will veer late tonight, become
southwesterly in the morning, and aid in lifting ceilings to VFR
while they scatter out, especially from 05/15Z and after.  Initial
indications are that thunderstorms will affect locations mainly
east of KMAF Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

  * Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128 remains in effect until 8 pm
    CDT/7 pm MDT for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New
    Mexico and Culberson and Jeff Davis counties in west Texas.

  * Tornado Watch 129 remains in effect until 8 pm CDT for
    Brewster,Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell, Ward, and
    Winkler counties.

 *  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT
    for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New Mexico and for
    Andrews, Borden, Dawson, and Gaines counties in west Texas.

Little time for discussion owing to impending heavy rainfall/flash
flooding and convective weather threats. CAMs have suggested for
several runs now that a storm (now apparently over northern Jeff Davis
county) will translate east and then begin to turn to the right as
effective shears increase to above 50 kts. Along and south of the
Pecos, there`s enough phasing between instability, CAPE, and shear
to promote discrete supercellular structures until at least 01Z.
If there`s enough balance between SR inflow and a supercell`s
rear flank downdraft, a tornado or three is not out of the
question.

Farther north, multicellular structures are apparent now and we
should see further upscale growth into a west-east trending MCS by
sunset. With increasing moisture (DRT showed +2SD precip water
values this morning) and a strengthening low level jet, a good supply
of moisture will feed these storms. Aloft, a 110 kt+ jet streak
translating eastward across northern Mexico will become difluent
(with one "f") over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Deep layer vertical motion profiles will further support deep
layer lift and efficient rain producers. As such, the flash flood
watch has been extended east to cover areas where forecast
rainfall more than 2" (isolated > 4") are possible tonight.

Should see a bit of a break tomorrow under subsidence in the wake
of the MCS. Low level moisture will be slow to move east, and as
soon as sig insolation can be realized, more convective overturning
is forecast, particularly near the mountains tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

High temperatures will stay close to normal through the week while
lows will be somewhat warmer than normal due to higher low level
moisture content. The best chances for thunderstorms will be across
the eastern Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos each afternoon and
evening; however, wouldn`t`t be surprised to see PoPs increase
nearer to the mountains as well.

With a focus on the meso-alpha scale today, little changes were
made to the forecast Day 3 and have stayed close to the NAM12 in
the Day 1-3 periods. We did shift PoPs east a bit to marry up
better with HPC guidance.

For graphics on excessive rainfall forecasts from the Weather
Prediction Center, go to http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
and for text http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatchmpd.php

Users can subscribe to the Storm Prediction Center`s Twitter feed
using @NWSSPC for latest in Mesoscale Convective Discussions and Watch
Status messages.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

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301
FXUS64 KMAF 042032
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

  * Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128 remains in effect until 8 pm
    CDT/7 pm MDT for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New
    Mexico and Culberson and Jeff Davis counties in west Texas.

  * Tornado Watch 129 remains in effect until 8 pm CDT for
    Brewster,Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell, Ward, and
    Winkler counties.

 *  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT
    for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New Mexico and for
    Andrews, Borden, Dawson, and Gaines counties in west Texas.

Little time for discussion owing to impending heavy rainfall/flash
flooding and convective weather threats. CAMs have suggested for
several runs now that a storm (now apparently over northern Jeff Davis
county) will translate east and then begin to turn to the right as
effective shears increase to above 50 kts. Along and south of the
Pecos, there`s enough phasing between instability, CAPE, and shear
to promote discrete supercellular structures until at least 01Z.
If there`s enough balance between SR inflow and a supercell`s
rear flank downdraft, a tornado or three is not out of the
question.

Farther north, multicellular structures are apparent now and we
should see further upscale growth into a west-east trending MCS by
sunset. With increasing moisture (DRT showed +2SD precip water
values this morning) and a strengthening low level jet, a good supply
of moisture will feed these storms. Aloft, a 110 kt+ jet streak
translating eastward across northern Mexico will become difluent
(with one "f") over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Deep layer vertical motion profiles will further support deep
layer lift and efficient rain producers. As such, the flash flood
watch has been extended east to cover areas where forecast
rainfall more than 2" (isolated > 4") are possible tonight.

Should see a bit of a break tomorrow under subsidence in the wake
of the MCS. Low level moisture will be slow to move east, and as
soon as sig insolation can be realized, more convective overturning
is forecast, particularly near the mountains tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

High temperatures will stay close to normal through the week while
lows will be somewhat warmer than normal due to higher low level
moisture content. The best chances for thunderstorms will be across
the eastern Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos each afternoon and
evening; however, wouldn`t`t be surprised to see PoPs increase
nearer to the mountains as well.

With a focus on the meso-alpha scale today, little changes were
made to the forecast Day 3 and have stayed close to the NAM12 in
the Day 1-3 periods. We did shift PoPs east a bit to marry up
better with HPC guidance.

For graphics on excessive rainfall forecasts from the Weather
Prediction Center, go to http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
and for text http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatchmpd.php

Users can subscribe to the Storm Prediction Center`s Twitter feed
using @NWSSPC for latest in Mesoscale Convective Discussions and Watch
Status messages.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 61  81  58  84  /  60  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              63  81  64  84  /  30  30  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                57  82  53  85  /  40  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  65  84  67  86  /  30  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           63  84  60  86  /  30  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  75  53  79  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   59  79  53  82  /  70  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   49  78  43  82  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  80  63  84  /  30  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  62  81  62  84  /  40  20  20  20
WINK TX                    65  85  56  87  /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through late
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...
     Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

84/70

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981
FXUS64 KMAF 041807
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
107 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main concern this forecast period are thunderstorms expected to
affect area TAF sites beginning later this afternoon. Have relied
heavily upon high resolution guidance to fine-tune timing of
convection at the terminals, though timing for KCNM and KHOB
/around 21Z/ as well as KMAF and KINK /around 00Z/ from the
previous TAF looks to be on track. Models indicate that greatest
concentration of storms will be across southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin, thus have maintained periods of prevailing TSRA
at those TAF sites, and just handled KPEQ and KFST with TEMPOs for
now. Storms that develop could become severe, capable of
large hail and high winds, as well as torrential rainfall, which
could reduce visibilities into IFR/LIFR territory. As always, the
devil is in the details, and exact timing/vsby restrictions will
likely be handled with amendments through the evening.
Otherwise, gusty southeast winds look to continue, with higher
variable gusts possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move
east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
By Tuesday this low will move over the 4 corners region and cross
the Rockies early Wednesday.  After it passes east another strong
low over the Pacific NW will dig down the West Coast and keep SW
flow over the region into the weekend.  Overall temperatures will be
near to above normal through the week.

There was good development of storms across the west yesterday and
some of them were strong but they did stay below severe levels.  The
atmosphere remains unstable as scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue early this morning across the Trans Pecos region.  Expect
storm coverage to increase through the day but especially during the
late afternoon into evening as a shortwave... daytime heating and
upslope flow combine.  Will have the potential for both severe wx
and flooding today.

Various model qpf not as in agreement as I would like but some are
developing heavy precip tonight.  With SE flow will have increasing
low level moisture with dewpts trying to climb into the 60s so
potential for heavy rain exists.  Model soundings at MAF show by 12z
this morning PW will climb to over 1 inch and remain elevated for
the next 24 hrs.  Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for
Southeast New Mexico and the Western Permian Basin but not expand it
at this time.  Could see Dawson county possibly added at a later
time.

As far as severe threat SPC has a slight risk over the western 2/3
of the area today and the eastern half of the CWA on Tuesday.  Main
hazards today will be large hail and damaging wind... but SPC points
out potential for very large hail.  With supercells expected
isolated tornadoes possible.  Have mention of severe in today but
models are trying to blow precip out of the area quickly Tuesday so
have not included severe wording yet on Tuesday.  The dryline looks
better Tuesday but does not match up with projected qpf.  The dry
line should only move as far east as a Hobbs to Marathon line by
late afternoon so potential for storms to develop farther west of
model qpf should continue through the day.  Any of these storms that
develop on the dryline may quickly become strong to severe and will
highlight in the HWO.

With more upper lows to the west and SW flow aloft potential for
additional storms mainly over the east will continue each day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through late
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

84

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629
FXUS64 KMAF 041131
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting HOB and MAF this morning then possible TSRA this
afternoon. Currently have some scattered showers and thunderstorms
near PEQ and CNM this morning but will only include mention of
SHRA at CNM for now. Could see this activity affect other sites
through the morning and will make adjust if needed. Expect MVFR
cigs to affect MAF and HOB for a few hours this morning then
return to VFR by mid/late morning. Thunderstorms are expected to
develop across much of the region this afternoon but tough to
pinpoint a specific time and location. For now, will prevail TSRA
at CNM and HOB beginning mid afternoon and INK and MAF early
evening. As for PEQ and FST, will add mention of thunder when
timing is more clear. Some storms could be severe and capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds. Adjustments will likely
be needed to timing. Otherwise, gusty SE winds expected once again
this afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move
east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
By Tuesday this low will move over the 4 corners region and cross
the Rockies early Wednesday.  After it passes east another strong
low over the Pacific NW will dig down the West Coast and keep SW
flow over the region into the weekend.  Overall temperatures will be
near to above normal through the week.

There was good development of storms across the west yesterday and
some of them were strong but they did stay below severe levels.  The
atmosphere remains unstable as scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue early this morning across the Trans Pecos region.  Expect
storm coverage to increase through the day but especially during the
late afternoon into evening as a shortwave... daytime heating and
upslope flow combine.  Will have the potential for both severe wx
and flooding today.

Various model qpf not as in agreement as I would like but some are
developing heavy precip tonight.  With SE flow will have increasing
low level moisture with dewpts trying to climb into the 60s so
potential for heavy rain exists.  Model soundings at MAF show by 12z
this morning PW will climb to over 1 inch and remain elevated for
the next 24 hrs.  Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for
Southeast New Mexico and the Western Permian Basin but not expand it
at this time.  Could see Dawson county possibly added at a later
time.

As far as severe threat SPC has a slight risk over the western 2/3
of the area today and the eastern half of the CWA on Tuesday.  Main
hazards today will be large hail and damaging wind... but SPC points
out potential for very large hail.  With supercells expected
isolated tornadoes possible.  Have mention of severe in today but
models are trying to blow precip out of the area quickly Tuesday so
have not included severe wording yet on Tuesday.  The dryline looks
better Tuesday but does not match up with projected qpf.  The dry
line should only move as far east as a Hobbs to Marathon line by
late afternoon so potential for storms to develop farther west of
model qpf should continue through the day.  Any of these storms that
develop on the dryline may quickly become strong to severe and will
highlight in the HWO.

With more upper lows to the west and SW flow aloft potential for
additional storms mainly over the east will continue each day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through late tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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507
FXUS64 KMAF 040852
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move
east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
By Tuesday this low will move over the 4 corners region and cross
the Rockies early Wednesday.  After it passes east another strong
low over the Pacific NW will dig down the West Coast and keep SW
flow over the region into the weekend.  Overall temperatures will be
near to above normal through the week.

There was good development of storms across the west yesterday and
some of them were strong but they did stay below severe levels.  The
atmosphere remains unstable as scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue early this morning across the Trans Pecos region.  Expect
storm coverage to increase through the day but especially during the
late afternoon into evening as a shortwave... daytime heating and
upslope flow combine.  Will have the potential for both severe wx
and flooding today.

Various model qpf not as in agreement as I would like but some are
developing heavy precip tonight.  With SE flow will have increasing
low level moisture with dewpts trying to climb into the 60s so
potential for heavy rain exists.  Model soundings at MAF show by 12z
this morning PW will climb to over 1 inch and remain elevated for
the next 24 hrs.  Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for
Southeast New Mexico and the Western Permian Basin but not expand it
at this time.  Could see Dawson county possibly added at a later
time.

As far as severe threat SPC has a slight risk over the western 2/3
of the area today and the eastern half of the CWA on Tuesday.  Main
hazards today will be large hail and damaging wind... but SPC points
out potential for very large hail.  With supercells expected
isolated tornadoes possible.  Have mention of severe in today but
models are trying to blow precip out of the area quickly Tuesday so
have not included severe wording yet on Tuesday.  The dryline looks
better Tuesday but does not match up with projected qpf.  The dry
line should only move as far east as a Hobbs to Marathon line by
late afternoon so potential for storms to develop farther west of
model qpf should continue through the day.  Any of these storms that
develop on the dryline may quickly become strong to severe and will
highlight in the HWO.

With more upper lows to the west and SW flow aloft potential for
additional storms mainly over the east will continue each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 77  61  79  56  /  40  60  40  20
BIG SPRING TX              78  64  79  64  /  30  40  50  30
CARLSBAD NM                82  56  83  52  /  50  60  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  66  86  67  /  40  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  62  86  61  /  40  40  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  51  75  53  /  30  40  20   0
HOBBS NM                   75  60  78  54  /  50  80  40  20
MARFA TX                   80  50  80  45  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    78  63  80  62  /  30  50  40  20
ODESSA TX                  78  63  80  61  /  30  50  40  20
WINK TX                    83  62  87  57  /  40  50  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through late tonight FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27/72

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561
FXUS64 KMAF 040545
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1245 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals early Monday then possible TSRA. Currently have
some scattered showers and thunderstorms near PEQ and FST tonight
and will continue mention for the next few hours. Attm, don`t think
current activity will affect other sites but will continue to
monitor and make adjustments if/when needed. Persistent SE flow
across the region tonight will result in increased moisture and
therefore the development of low clouds. For now, only have mention
of MVFR at HOB and MAF where confidence is highest. Also, think
there will be a brief period of IFR at MAF and have added mention in
a TEMPO. Low cigs will lift late morning with the potential for
severe thunderstorms by the afternoon. Models indicate isolated
thunderstorms popping up by early afternoon but exact
timing/location is still uncertain. Highest confidence of TSRA
affecting terminals is at CNM and HOB so went ahead and added
prevailing -TSRA beginning at 04/21Z. Adjustments will likely be
needed to timing. Otherwise, gusty SE winds expected once again
Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved to the east of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the past 24 hours, leaving the
CWA under SW flow aloft.  Mesoanalysis has shown a strong cap in
place this morning/afternoon, possible hindering development of a
stronger dryline.  However, this is starting to erode W-E, w/sat
imagery showing a weak shortwave moving into far West Texas.  Area
radars show convection trying to develop west of the Pecos...but
struggling.  However, w/continued heating/destabilization and the
aforementioned shortwave, activity should pick up over the next few
hrs and last into the evening.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall in SoCal, and height falls
begin across the desert CONUS.  Models bring a shortwave thru the
ern zones during the morning, and develop convection westward during
the day as large-scale ascent commences ahead of the trough and a
strong dryline develops against the wrn mtns.  Models, particularly
the GFS, show a cap ahead of the trough Monday, but also strong lift
in the lwr levels invof the cap.  Mid-lvl LR`s increase during the
day, especially out west, and we`ll maintain a mention of svr during
the afternoon in the grids.  Monday night, as the trough moves into
the 4 Corners area, a strong 50+kt LLJ is set to develop over the
Permian Basin, w/storms becoming a bit more organized and heading
E-NE.  Forecast PWATs remain high--near the climatological maximum
for May--and higher model QPFs have not changed much in 24 hrs,
remaining north of I-20 and mainly SE NM.  Attm, we see no reason to
change the going FFA.  Mid shift can expand if things change.  0-6km
bulk shear of 35-60kts is still forecast over the srn zones during
the evening, expanding north overnight.  Concurrent w/this, models
develop 0-3km SR helicities in excess of 150 ms/s2, and bring this
up thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains as well.  0-1km
SREH remains impressive as well, so we`ll keep a mention of isolated
tornadoes in the HWO.  Trough will continue exiting into the Central
Rockies Tuesday, w/rain chances tapering off to the
NE.

Otherwise, temps will be back to near-normal by Wednesday, and
remain fairly persistent each day into the weekend under SW flow
aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a chance of
convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from this evening through Tuesday morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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340
FXUS64 KMAF 032333
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
633 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered TS moving across the area this evening most likely to
impact HOB/PEQ/INK/CNM the next few hours and possibly FST later
tonight. The main impact from this will be variable and gusty
winds. Closer to 12Z expecting MVFR or IFR CIGs to move north
affecting MAF and HOB. This cloud deck could possibly move into
PEQ, INK, and FST but confidence not high enough to put in those
TAFs at this time. VFR conditions expected to return around 18Z
with a chance for severe thunderstorms 04/18-05/00Z though this
has not been indicated in any of the TAFs at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved to the east of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the past 24 hours, leaving the
CWA under SW flow aloft.  Mesoanalysis has shown a strong cap in
place this morning/afternoon, possible hindering development of a
stronger dryline.  However, this is starting to erode W-E, w/sat
imagery showing a weak shortwave moving into far West Texas.  Area
radars show convection trying to develop west of the Pecos...but
struggling.  However, w/continued heating/destabilization and the
aforementioned shortwave, activity should pick up over the next few
hrs and last into the evening.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall in SoCal, and height falls
begin across the desert CONUS.  Models bring a shortwave thru the
ern zones during the morning, and develop convection westward during
the day as large-scale ascent commences ahead of the trough and a
strong dryline develops against the wrn mtns.  Models, particularly
the GFS, show a cap ahead of the trough Monday, but also strong lift
in the lwr levels invof the cap.  Mid-lvl LR`s increase during the
day, especially out west, and we`ll maintain a mention of svr during
the afternoon in the grids.  Monday night, as the trough moves into
the 4 Corners area, a strong 50+kt LLJ is set to develop over the
Permian Basin, w/storms becoming a bit more organized and heading
E-NE.  Forecast PWATs remain high--near the climatological maximum
for May--and higher model QPFs have not changed much in 24 hrs,
remaining north of I-20 and mainly SE NM.  Attm, we see no reason to
change the going FFA.  Mid shift can expand if things change.  0-6km
bulk shear of 35-60kts is still forecast over the srn zones during
the evening, expanding north overnight.  Concurrent w/this, models
develop 0-3km SR helicities in excess of 150 ms/s2, and bring this
up thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains as well.  0-1km
SREH remains impressive as well, so we`ll keep a mention of isolated
tornadoes in the HWO.  Trough will continue exiting into the Central
Rockies Tuesday, w/rain chances tapering off to the
NE.

Otherwise, temps will be back to near-normal by Wednesday, and
remain fairly persistent each day into the weekend under SW flow
aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a chance of
convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

10

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400
FXUS64 KMAF 032005
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved to the east of West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico over the past 24 hours, leaving the
CWA under SW flow aloft.  Mesoanalysis has shown a strong cap in
place this morning/afternoon, possible hindering development of a
stronger dryline.  However, this is starting to erode W-E, w/sat
imagery showing a weak shortwave moving into far West Texas.  Area
radars show convection trying to develop west of the Pecos...but
struggling.  However, w/continued heating/destabilization and the
aforementioned shortwave, activity should pick up over the next few
hrs and last into the evening.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall in SoCal, and height falls
begin across the desert CONUS.  Models bring a shortwave thru the
ern zones during the morning, and develop convection westward during
the day as large-scale ascent commences ahead of the trough and a
strong dryline develops against the wrn mtns.  Models, particularly
the GFS, show a cap ahead of the trough Monday, but also strong lift
in the lwr levels invof the cap.  Mid-lvl LR`s increase during the
day, especially out west, and we`ll maintain a mention of svr during
the afternoon in the grids.  Monday night, as the trough moves into
the 4 Corners area, a strong 50+kt LLJ is set to develop over the
Permian Basin, w/storms becoming a bit more organized and heading
E-NE.  Forecast PWATs remain high--near the climatological maximum
for May--and higher model QPFs have not changed much in 24 hrs,
remaining north of I-20 and mainly SE NM.  Attm, we see no reason to
change the going FFA.  Mid shift can expand if things change.  0-6km
bulk shear of 35-60kts is still forecast over the srn zones during
the evening, expanding north overnight.  Concurrent w/this, models
develop 0-3km SR helicities in excess of 150 ms/s2, and bring this
up thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains as well.  0-1km
SREH remains impressive as well, so we`ll keep a mention of isolated
tornadoes in the HWO.  Trough will continue exiting into the Central
Rockies Tuesday, w/rain chances tapering off to the
NE.

Otherwise, temps will be back to near-normal by Wednesday, and
remain fairly persistent each day into the weekend under SW flow
aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a chance of
convection each day ern zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  81  61  78  /  10  40  50  20
BIG SPRING TX              67  80  65  77  /  10  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                59  84  58  82  /  40  40  50  10
DRYDEN TX                  66  85  68  83  /  10  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  84  64  85  /  10  30  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  80  54  73  /  30  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   58  75  59  78  /  50  50  80  10
MARFA TX                   53  81  50  76  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    65  79  63  78  /  10  40  30  20
ODESSA TX                  65  79  63  78  /  10  50  30  20
WINK TX                    65  82  63  85  /  30  30  50  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

84/44

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673
FXUS64 KMAF 031733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expectation continues to be the development of SHRA/TSRA this
afternoon and evening, first across higher terrain to the west,
and then spreading eastward. However, given the storms are
expected to be isolated, uncertainties regarding timing/location
preclude mention in the current TAFs. Models are also hinting at
the possibility of fog/low ceiling development early Monday
morning, though this would be contingent on rainfall this
evening. Thus, will defer to later issuances to include mention of
precipitation and/or fog in area TAFS. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail over the next 24 hours, with breezy southeast winds
continuing through the forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily
dryline.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

84

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043
FXUS64 KMAF 031130
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is possible -TSRA
affecting terminals today. Could see some convection develop near
the higher terrain regions later this afternoon then move east into
the adjacent plains. Thinking this activity will be isolated in
nature and confidence in specific location/timing remains too low
attm to mention in current TAF. Will continue to monitor through the
day and make adjustments if/when needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will persist with gusty SE winds expected through sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily
dryline.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27

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185
FXUS64 KMAF 030943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper ridge over the area slowly slides east today as an upper
trough moves ashore the CA coast.  This trough will bring a chance
of the storms to the region as it moves east... passing over the 4
corners region early Tuesday and Rockies early Wednesday.  As it
moves off to the NE a stronger low over the Pacific NW will dig down
the coast.  This will keep the region unstable through the week and
keep low chances of storms in the forecast.

Will have another warm day today with highs near normal and
increasing clouds.  Chance of afternoon/evening storms mainly for SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... down through the Davis Mountains.  To have
rain need decent moisture to work with.  Current dewpts in the 30s
and 40s... this needs to significantly increase before have
potential for heavy rain.  Latest model guidance shows dewpts climb
into the low 60s Monday.

Not expecting much in the way of severe wx today but cant completely
rule it out.  Moisture should be pushed back to the mountains and
when combined with daytime heating storm development over the higher
elevation possible.  In addition to orographic lift may have a weak
shortwave move over the area to help storm initiation... but dont see
much sign of a dryline today.  Have expanded pops westward this
afternoon as meso eta qpf develops considerable amounts of precip
back across the western CWA.

Severe wx potential increases on Monday as convergence along the
dryline increases and upper support improves.  Have added mention of
large hail and damaging wind to wx grid Monday afternoon along the
dryline.  Model sounding Monday afternoon/evening for FST shows good
turning of the wind with height and good speed shear so will
continue to mention isolated tornadoes.  For time being with leave
mention of severe in forecast for all of Monday night but expect
most severe storms will be in the 18z-06z time period.  Expect
sometime overnight severe potential should change over to heavy
rain. Model soundings for the Permian Basin show PW climb over 1
inch by 12z Monday and stay elevated through Tuesday.  Have heaviest
qpf over SE NM and Western Permian Basin... will be issuing a Flash
Flood Watch for this area for Monday night.  Later shifts may expand
this watch both in coverage and time.

The dryline will be farther east on Tuesday and the upper low will
be moving over the 4 corners region which is a favorable location
for severe wx across W TX and SE NM.  Will continue likely pops
Tuesday but not add mention of severe storms to the forecast yet but
continue to mention severe potential in HWO.  SWODY3 has the eastern
half of the CWA in a slight risk so Tuesday may turn out to be a
bigger severe day than Monday.  Low chance of storms continue
through the extended mainly for eastern CWA along/east of a daily
dryline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  61  77  61  /  20  10  30  70
BIG SPRING TX              87  63  80  61  /  10  10  20  60
CARLSBAD NM                89  58  83  57  /  30  20  50  70
DRYDEN TX                  87  66  85  66  /  10  10  30  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           89  63  82  62  /  20  20  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  54  79  56  /  20  20  40  60
HOBBS NM                   85  59  76  58  /  30  20  40  80
MARFA TX                   83  48  80  50  /  30  20  20  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  63  78  62  /  10  10  30  60
ODESSA TX                  86  62  78  62  /  20  10  30  70
WINK TX                    91  62  82  62  /  30  20  40  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through late Monday night
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from Monday evening through Tuesday morning
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

27/72

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989
FXUS64 KMAF 030524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Sun May 3 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Moderate SE winds overnight then
gusty Sunday afternoon. Expecting some isolated thunderstorms late
afternoon but confidence in specific location/timing is low attm to
mention in current TAF.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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906
FXUS64 KMAF 030004
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
704 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with a moderate southerly to southeasterly wind
will continue. Thunderstorms will be possible late Sunday
afternoon across SE NM and the Trans Pecos. Will keep out of TAFs
for now due to expected isolated nature.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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378
FXUS64 KMAF 022015
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
315 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper level ridge has moved east over the past
24 hours in response to an upper trough approaching the west coast.
This has transitioned meridional flow aloft to zonal, providing a
mostly sunny afternoon very similar to yesterday`s, w/temps
plateauing near normal.  Visible sat/radar shows convection trying
to develop in the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Moisture return was efficient overnight, and is expected to continue
priming the PBL over the next 24 hours.  Sunday, the ridge will be
east of the region, leaving West Texas and Southeast New Mexico
under SW flow aloft.  A weak dryline is still anticipated to develop
mid-CWA, w/models in good agreement in bringing a shortwave across
it during the afternoon for a chance of convection into the evening
hours.

Late Sunday night/Monday morning, the upper trough makes landfall on
the west coast, w/strong height falls preceding it and large-scale
ascent initiating convection across the CWA during the afternoon.
By this time, 50+F dewpoints are forecast to be backed up against
the western mtns, w/a 50+kt LLJ forecast to develop into the evening
hours across the Stockton Plateau/Permian Basin.  Latest QPF fields
have shifted slightly north over the past 24 hours, but forecast
PWATs at KMAF at 06Z Tue are still as high as over 1.4", which is
near the climatological maximum.  Thus, we`ll continue a mention of
locally heavy rainfall in the grids (only a little further north)
and mention flash flooding in the HWO...mainly Monday night.  This
period is still too far out for a flash flood watch, but one will
probably be needed w/in the next 24 hours.  Monday night, w/the LLJ
kicking in, an area of strong 0-3km 150+ m2/s2 helicity is forecast
to develop, generally down in the Big Bend Area, and develop up thru
the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling Plains overnight.  Forecast
soundings remain very saturated, w/LCL`s 1500-3500` AGL.  0-1km SRH
looks impressive as well...in excess of 100 m2/s2.  Thus, we`ll
mention an isolated tornado in the HWO.  0-6km bulk shear values of
35-60kts are forecast over the southern 2/3rds of the FA, w/wet-bulb
zeroes in the 9-10kft range, so we`ll go ahead and insert a mention
of svr in the grids as well.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be back to
near-normal by Wednesday, and remain fairly persistent each day into
the weekend under SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each
afternoon, for a chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  85  62  78  /  10  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              55  86  65  80  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  88  56  83  /  10  10  10  50
DRYDEN TX                  59  85  67  82  /   0  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  90  64  82  /   0  20  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  84  56  79  /   0  10  10  30
HOBBS NM                   53  86  59  76  /  10  20  50  30
MARFA TX                   48  83  48  80  /   0  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  86  65  78  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  60  86  64  78  /  10  10  30  20
WINK TX                    58  91  64  82  /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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726
FXUS64 KMAF 021740
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 PM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with breezy southeast winds will continue for the
next 24 hours. Late tonight, gusts will diminish, but winds will
increase once again by late Sunday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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689
FXUS64 KMAF 021127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue with increasing mid to high clouds.
South wind will become gusty by midday as pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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816
FXUS64 KMAF 020837
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another nice day expected today under the influence of weak upper
ridging aloft. Expect sunny skies and afternoon high temperatures
in the mid 80s most places. Southeast winds will be a bit breezy
this afternoon as the surface pressure gradient tightens in
response to a surface trough strengthening lee of the Rockies.
Upper ridging will shift east overnight tonight while a Pacific
upper trough slowly approaches the SW ConUS, resulting in SW flow
aloft by Sunday afternoon. The dryline looks to sharpen from the
western Permian Basin south to the Big Bend region on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time so will
continue mention of at least isolated thunderstorms possible
near/along the dryline.

The main focus for this forecast package is the Monday through
Tuesday timeframe with the potential of severe weather and flooding
affecting portions of the CWA. The Pacific ua trough will enter the
SW ConUS overnight Sunday then moving east through the Desert SW
through the beginning of the week. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds at
the surface will continue pumping low level moisture into the
region. Model guidance has been consistent in showing PWATS just
above 1" Monday increasing to near 1.25" Monday night. The dryline
will be a little farther west on Monday, sharpening up near SE NM
south just east of the Davis Mtn region. Models indicate a weak
upper disturbance moving overhead in SW flow aloft, and with
sufficient heating and ample moisture, dryline thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon/evening hours Monday.
Convective activity looks to increase and persist overnight,
particularly across the northern half of the CWA, as greatest
upper forcing arrives and nocturnal LLJ sustains LL moisture.
Storms could be strong to severe, producing large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given the potential amount of
available moisture, heavy rain could definitely result in a flash
flooding threat particularly overnight Monday into Tuesday
morning. Will continue to mention flash flooding threat in the HWO
but may need to consider issuing a Flash Flood Watch soon. Could
see dryline thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon, given the
atmosphere can recover from Monday night...

Wednesday, model solutions indicate dryline thunderstorms once again
despite the exiting ua trough, somewhat depleted moisture and no
significant upper forcing depicted. We could end up getting an upper
weakness come across in SW flow aloft so kept at least slight
chances mentioned for now across eastern zones. The dryline looks to
meander back and forth across eastern half of the CWA through the
end of the week and maybe even into the weekend with the chance for
thunderstorms continuing through Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 85  58  86  61  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              85  58  86  64  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                89  56  89  58  /   0  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  85  60  84  66  /   0   0  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  87  63  /   0   0  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          84  60  82  59  /   0  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   85  54  86  58  /   0   0  20  30
MARFA TX                   83  50  81  52  /  10   0  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  58  86  63  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  85  58  85  62  /   0   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  58  90  63  /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/27

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047
FXUS64 KMAF 020532
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 AM CDT Sat May 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions will remain VFR with some increase in high clouds.
South wind should slowly drop off in speed overnight but then will
become gusty during the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper level ridge over the SW CONUS, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light meridional flow
aloft.  This has resulted in a sunny afternoon w/near-normal
temperatures across the region.  A few cu are trying to get going
over the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Overnight, the upper ridge will shift east in response to a trough
approaching the west coast, while at the sfc, return flow will begin
priming the PBL w/increased moisture.  This should make for a day
similar to today`s.  Sunday, w/the ridge east of the area, a weak
dryline is forecast to sharpen up mid-CWA under SW flow aloft,
w/models in good agreement in initiating convection along the
dryline Sunday afternoon and night as a shortwave moves thru the
flow.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall on the west coast,
w/large-scale ascent commencing ahead of this feature under strong
height falls, w/rain chances increasing into Monday night.  Forecast
soundings depict a modest cap during the day Monday, but forcing
ahead of the trough should be enough to overcome this.  Monday
night, things get interesting as a 50+kt LLJ develops over the
Permian Basin.  Forecast soundings at KMAF increase PWATs to near
1.5"...which falls w/in the climatological maximum for this time of
year.  Both the GFS and ECMWF advertise pretty healthy QPFs from a
MCS-type feature, but forecast storm motions of 20-25 kts should mitigate
flash flood potential somewhat.  Still, models are in enough
agreement on timing/placement of QPF to mention heavy rainfall in
the grids for the Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian basin Monday
night.  If this remains consistent over the next few days/runs, a
Flash Flood Watch may be necessary.  For now, besides the grids,
we`ll mention this in the HWO.  Another concern Monday night will be
tornadoes.  Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a swath of 0-3km SR
helicity well in excess of 150 m2/s2 on the leading edge of the
trough and bring it right thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling
Plains Monday night.  0-1km SRH looks impressive as well.
W/forecast soundings pretty much saturated by 06Z Tuesday, LCLs will
be under 2500` AGL.  However, this is still a ways out, and we`d
like to see a couple more runs of this before mentioning it in the
HWO.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be below normal
Tuesday, but recover during the week to near-normal by Friday under
SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a
chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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790
FXUS64 KMAF 012319
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
619 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Continued VFR conditions expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper level ridge over the SW CONUS, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light meridional flow
aloft.  This has resulted in a sunny afternoon w/near-normal
temperatures across the region.  A few cu are trying to get going
over the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Overnight, the upper ridge will shift east in response to a trough
approaching the west coast, while at the sfc, return flow will begin
priming the PBL w/increased moisture.  This should make for a day
similar to today`s.  Sunday, w/the ridge east of the area, a weak
dryline is forecast to sharpen up mid-CWA under SW flow aloft,
w/models in good agreement in initiating convection along the
dryline Sunday afternoon and night as a shortwave moves thru the
flow.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall on the west coast,
w/large-scale ascent commencing ahead of this feature under strong
height falls, w/rain chances increasing into Monday night.  Forecast
soundings depict a modest cap during the day Monday, but forcing
ahead of the trough should be enough to overcome this.  Monday
night, things get interesting as a 50+kt LLJ develops over the
Permian Basin.  Forecast soundings at KMAF increase PWATs to near
1.5"...which falls w/in the climatological maximum for this time of
year.  Both the GFS and ECMWF advertise pretty healthy QPFs from a
MCS-type feature, but forecast storm motions of 20-25 kts should mitigate
flash flood potential somewhat.  Still, models are in enough
agreement on timing/placement of QPF to mention heavy rainfall in
the grids for the Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian basin Monday
night.  If this remains consistent over the next few days/runs, a
Flash Flood Watch may be necessary.  For now, besides the grids,
we`ll mention this in the HWO.  Another concern Monday night will be
tornadoes.  Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a swath of 0-3km SR
helicity well in excess of 150 m2/s2 on the leading edge of the
trough and bring it right thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling
Plains Monday night.  0-1km SRH looks impressive as well.
W/forecast soundings pretty much saturated by 06Z Tuesday, LCLs will
be under 2500` AGL.  However, this is still a ways out, and we`d
like to see a couple more runs of this before mentioning it in the
HWO.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be below normal
Tuesday, but recover during the week to near-normal by Friday under
SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a
chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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920
FXUS64 KMAF 011955
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows an upper level ridge over the SW CONUS, leaving
West Texas and Southeast New Mexico under light meridional flow
aloft.  This has resulted in a sunny afternoon w/near-normal
temperatures across the region.  A few cu are trying to get going
over the Davis Mtns...but struggling.

Overnight, the upper ridge will shift east in response to a trough
approaching the west coast, while at the sfc, return flow will begin
priming the PBL w/increased moisture.  This should make for a day
similar to today`s.  Sunday, w/the ridge east of the area, a weak
dryline is forecast to sharpen up mid-CWA under SW flow aloft,
w/models in good agreement in initiating convection along the
dryline Sunday afternoon and night as a shortwave moves thru the
flow.

Monday, the upper trough makes landfall on the west coast,
w/large-scale ascent commencing ahead of this feature under strong
height falls, w/rain chances increasing into Monday night.  Forecast
soundings depict a modest cap during the day Monday, but forcing
ahead of the trough should be enough to overcome this.  Monday
night, things get interesting as a 50+kt LLJ develops over the
Permian Basin.  Forecast soundings at KMAF increase PWATs to near
1.5"...which falls w/in the climatological maximum for this time of
year.  Both the GFS and ECMWF advertise pretty healthy QPFs from a
MCS-type feature, but forecast storm motions of 20-25 kts should mitigate
flash flood potential somewhat.  Still, models are in enough
agreement on timing/placement of QPF to mention heavy rainfall in
the grids for the Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian basin Monday
night.  If this remains consistent over the next few days/runs, a
Flash Flood Watch may be necessary.  For now, besides the grids,
we`ll mention this in the HWO.  Another concern Monday night will be
tornadoes.  Both the GFS and ECMWF develop a swath of 0-3km SR
helicity well in excess of 150 m2/s2 on the leading edge of the
trough and bring it right thru the Permian Basin/Wrn Low Rolling
Plains Monday night.  0-1km SRH looks impressive as well.
W/forecast soundings pretty much saturated by 06Z Tuesday, LCLs will
be under 2500` AGL.  However, this is still a ways out, and we`d
like to see a couple more runs of this before mentioning it in the
HWO.

Otherwise, the trough exits the area Tuesday, w/chances of
convection tapering off to the east.  Temps will be below normal
Tuesday, but recover during the week to near-normal by Friday under
SW flow aloft.  Models develop a dryline each afternoon, for a
chance of convection each day ern zones.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  84  58  86  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              55  85  55  87  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                51  90  54  90  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  56  86  59  87  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  88  62  91  /   0  10   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  85  58  83  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   50  84  53  87  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   41  82  46  83  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  84  56  88  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  58  84  59  87  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    56  89  56  93  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/44

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963
FXUS64 KMAF 011727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Little change from previous forecast. VFR with SE winds near 15kts
at times. More of the same Sat with lee trof in the ern NM
Plains.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days
under the influence of upper ridging aloft. Surface lee troughing
will persist through the weekend, resulting in moderate SSE flow
and a slow increase in low level moisture through the beginning of
next week. Conditions will remain dry for most areas through
Saturday then thunderstorm chances return to the FA by the end of
the weekend.

Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday while a
Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and W TX under
SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to sharpen
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time. Although
higher dewpoints (pushing 60) would be ideal, think at least mention
of a slight chance is warranted attm.

Confidence continues to increase that thunderstorms will affect
the area Monday and Tuesday as the upper low approaches, spreading
upper forcing for ascent across the region. Meanwhile, will
continue to see moisture increase east of the dryline, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s and PWATS well above 1 inch by
Tuesday. Dryline thunderstorms look possible Monday afternoon and
evening then convection looks to persist overnight as greatest
upper forcing arrives Tuesday morning. Dryline thunderstorms once
again Tuesday afternoon before upper forcing moves east of the
region. Each afternoon, models indicate CAPE values near 1500 J/kg
(potentially higher Tuesday), mid-level LRs 7-8 C/km and 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-50kt at times, supporting the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong winds. In
addition, given the amount of available moisture, heavy rain
potential could lead to areas of localized flash flooding.
Wednesday and Thursday, long term solutions indicate dryline
thunderstorms across far eastern zones each day and with SW flow
aloft persisting, think scenario is plausible with any passing
shortwave.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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801
FXUS64 KMAF 011126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with a few mid clouds expected. Otherwise the wind
will be southerly and may be a little gusty in the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days
under the influence of upper ridging aloft. Surface lee troughing
will persist through the weekend, resulting in moderate SSE flow
and a slow increase in low level moisture through the beginning of
next week. Conditions will remain dry for most areas through
Saturday then thunderstorm chances return to the FA by the end of
the weekend.

Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday while a
Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and W TX under
SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to sharpen
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time. Although
higher dewpoints (pushing 60) would be ideal, think at least mention
of a slight chance is warranted attm.

Confidence continues to increase that thunderstorms will affect
the area Monday and Tuesday as the upper low approaches, spreading
upper forcing for ascent across the region. Meanwhile, will
continue to see moisture increase east of the dryline, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s and PWATS well above 1 inch by
Tuesday. Dryline thunderstorms look possible Monday afternoon and
evening then convection looks to persist overnight as greatest
upper forcing arrives Tuesday morning. Dryline thunderstorms once
again Tuesday afternoon before upper forcing moves east of the
region. Each afternoon, models indicate CAPE values near 1500 J/kg
(potentially higher Tuesday), mid-level LRs 7-8 C/km and 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-50kt at times, supporting the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong winds. In
addition, given the amount of available moisture, heavy rain
potential could lead to areas of localized flash flooding.
Wednesday and Thursday, long term solutions indicate dryline
thunderstorms across far eastern zones each day and with SW flow
aloft persisting, think scenario is plausible with any passing
shortwave.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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782
FXUS64 KMAF 010831
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
331 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures will continue for the next several days
under the influence of upper ridging aloft. Surface lee troughing
will persist through the weekend, resulting in moderate SSE flow
and a slow increase in low level moisture through the beginning of
next week. Conditions will remain dry for most areas through
Saturday then thunderstorm chances return to the FA by the end of
the weekend.

Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday while a
Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and W TX under
SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to sharpen
across the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Sunday with
dewpoints in the low/mid 50s across far eastern zones. Could see
some weak disturbances move over the region in SW flow aloft,
providing some weak forcing for ascent during this time. Although
higher dewpoints (pushing 60) would be ideal, think at least mention
of a slight chance is warranted attm.

Confidence continues to increase that thunderstorms will affect
the area Monday and Tuesday as the upper low approaches, spreading
upper forcing for ascent across the region. Meanwhile, will
continue to see moisture increase east of the dryline, with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s and PWATS well above 1 inch by
Tuesday. Dryline thunderstorms look possible Monday afternoon and
evening then convection looks to persist overnight as greatest
upper forcing arrives Tuesday morning. Dryline thunderstorms once
again Tuesday afternoon before upper forcing moves east of the
region. Each afternoon, models indicate CAPE values near 1500 J/kg
(potentially higher Tuesday), mid-level LRs 7-8 C/km and 0-6km bulk
shear of 40-50kt at times, supporting the potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong winds. In
addition, given the amount of available moisture, heavy rain
potential could lead to areas of localized flash flooding.
Wednesday and Thursday, long term solutions indicate dryline
thunderstorms across far eastern zones each day and with SW flow
aloft persisting, think scenario is plausible with any passing
shortwave.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  55  85  57  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              84  56  86  59  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  52  89  56  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  56  85  59  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           85  57  87  59  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  56  84  59  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   83  51  85  54  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   80  44  82  51  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  56  85  59  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  84  57  85  59  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  55  90  59  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/27

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742
FXUS64 KMAF 010542
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1242 AM CDT Fri May 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with a few mid clouds expected. Otherwise look for
a S/SE wind which may become gusty in the afternoon.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Slowly moderating temperatures will continue tonight through
Saturday as an upper level ridge slowly builds over the forecast
area. Temperatures are expected to climb to near and or slightly
above normal values Friday and Saturday as 850 millibar temperatures
continue to warm with lee troughing and low level thermal ridging
expected with plenty of sunshine to boot.

The flow aloft Sunday is forecast to become west to southwest
ahead of a potent Pacific storm system. A dry line is forecast to
sharpen in this flow and track toward the Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance has been
consistent for several days generating some isolated convection
Sunday afternoon and evening in these areas. This looks reasonable
given the shortwave trough depicted and the associated mid level
moisture. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday with low level
thermal ridging in place with the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by next
Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned Pacific upper level storm
system approaches from the desert southwest on Monday and then
passes by to the north across the western high plains by late
Tuesday. Its looking more and more like it will be the first bout
of significant severe weather for the forecast area this year.

Behind this system southwesterly flow aloft is expected next Wednesday
and Thursday. Guidance suggests thunderstorms will be possible
across the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region both
afternoon and evenings along and ahead of the dryline. Above normal
temperatures are expected to continue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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500
FXUS64 KMAF 302245
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Slowly moderating temperatures will continue tonight through
Saturday as an upper level ridge slowly builds over the forecast
area. Temperatures are expected to climb to near and or slightly
above normal values Friday and Saturday as 850 millibar temperatures
continue to warm with lee troughing and low level thermal ridging
expected with plenty of sunshine to boot.

The flow aloft Sunday is forecast to become west to southwest
ahead of a potent Pacific storm system. A dry line is forecast to
sharpen in this flow and track toward the Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance has been
consistent for several days generating some isolated convection
Sunday afternoon and evening in these areas. This looks reasonable
given the shortwave trough depicted and the associated mid level
moisture. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday with low level
thermal ridging in place with the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by next
Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned Pacific upper level storm
system approaches from the desert southwest on Monday and then
passes by to the north across the western high plains by late
Tuesday. Its looking more and more like it will be the first bout
of significant severe weather for the forecast area this year.

Behind this system southwesterly flow aloft is expected next Wednesday
and Thursday. Guidance suggests thunderstorms will be possible
across the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region both
afternoon and evenings along and ahead of the dryline. Above normal
temperatures are expected to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  85  54  85  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                47  87  51  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  84  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  86  58  89  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  82  56  84  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   49  84  50  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  80  42  82  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  84  55  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  84  57  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    50  86  57  91  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12

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792
FXUS64 KMAF 301915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Slowly moderating temperatures will continue tonight through
Saturday as an upper level ridge slowly builds over the forecast
area. Temperatures are expected to climb to near and or slightly
above normal values Friday and Saturday as 850 millibar temperatures
continue to warm with lee troughing and low level thermal ridging
expected with plenty of sunshine to boot.

The flow aloft Sunday is forecast to become west to southwest
ahead of a potent Pacific storm system. A dry line is forecast to
sharpen in this flow and track toward the Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance has been
consistent for several days generating some isolated convection
Sunday afternoon and evening in these areas. This looks reasonable
given the shortwave trough depicted and the associated mid level
moisture. Temperatures will be above normal Sunday with low level
thermal ridging in place with the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by next
Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned Pacific upper level storm
system approaches from the desert southwest on Monday and then
passes by to the north across the western high plains by late
Tuesday. Its looking more and more like it will be the first bout
of significant severe weather for the forecast area this year.

Behind this system southwesterly flow aloft is expected next Wednesday
and Thursday. Guidance suggests thunderstorms will be possible
across the eastern Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region both
afternoon and evenings along and ahead of the dryline. Above normal
temperatures are expected to continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  83  55  85  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  85  54  85  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                47  87  51  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  84  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  86  58  89  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  82  56  84  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   49  84  50  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  80  42  82  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  84  55  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  54  84  57  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    50  86  57  91  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/12

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406
FXUS64 KMAF 301554
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light return flow. A
few mid/high clouds will be possible, especially SE NM.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging in place once
again tonight however low temps will not be quite as cool as last
night. May see a light freeze near the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau
by sunrise. Southerly flow will become much more established across
the region by this afternoon as the surface ridge continues to move
east and a surface lee trough strengthens into eastern NM. The
warming trend will continue today with highs generally near or above
80 most locations.

Upper ridging will begin to move overhead Friday and the warming
trend will continue with above normals temps expected through the
weekend. Many locations will reach or exceed 90 degrees Sunday
afternoon. Most areas will remain dry through Saturday however there
is some indication that upslope flow Saturday afternoon may result
in some isolated convection over the Davis Mtn region. For now,
decided to leave mention out of the forecast due to lack of
moisture. Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday
while a Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and
W TX under SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to
return this weekend but very little moisture return leave
thunderstorm chances low to nil attm.

Thunderstorm chances begin to increase Monday as the upper low
approaches, spreading upper forcing for ascent across the region.
Will continue to see moisture increase Monday night as the dryline
retreats west toward eastern NM. Tuesday looks to be the best day
for dryline thunderstorms with ample available moisture (PWATS
greater than 1 inch) and greatest upper forcing. Attm, it looks as
though Tuesday could be a good candidate for severe weather and will
continue to monitor the possibility. As the dryline retreats
Tuesday night, thunderstorms may persist overnight with the help
of a present LLJ. Upper forcing will decrease Wednesday with the
departing upper low and precip chances will diminish from west to
east.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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161
FXUS64 KMAF 301108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light south winds to continue this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging in place once
again tonight however low temps will not be quite as cool as last
night. May see a light freeze near the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau
by sunrise. Southerly flow will become much more established across
the region by this afternoon as the surface ridge continues to move
east and a surface lee trough strengthens into eastern NM. The
warming trend will continue today with highs generally near or above
80 most locations.

Upper ridging will begin to move overhead Friday and the warming
trend will continue with above normals temps expected through the
weekend. Many locations will reach or exceed 90 degrees Sunday
afternoon. Most areas will remain dry through Saturday however there
is some indication that upslope flow Saturday afternoon may result
in some isolated convection over the Davis Mtn region. For now,
decided to leave mention out of the forecast due to lack of
moisture. Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday
while a Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and
W TX under SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to
return this weekend but very little moisture return leave
thunderstorm chances low to nil attm.

Thunderstorm chances begin to increase Monday as the upper low
approaches, spreading upper forcing for ascent across the region.
Will continue to see moisture increase Monday night as the dryline
retreats west toward eastern NM. Tuesday looks to be the best day
for dryline thunderstorms with ample available moisture (PWATS
greater than 1 inch) and greatest upper forcing. Attm, it looks as
though Tuesday could be a good candidate for severe weather and will
continue to monitor the possibility. As the dryline retreats
Tuesday night, thunderstorms may persist overnight with the help
of a present LLJ. Upper forcing will decrease Wednesday with the
departing upper low and precip chances will diminish from west to
east.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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355
FXUS64 KMAF 300817
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
317 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging in place once
again tonight however low temps will not be quite as cool as last
night. May see a light freeze near the Davis Mtns and Marfa Plateau
by sunrise. Southerly flow will become much more established across
the region by this afternoon as the surface ridge continues to move
east and a surface lee trough strengthens into eastern NM. The
warming trend will continue today with highs generally near or above
80 most locations.

Upper ridging will begin to move overhead Friday and the warming
trend will continue with above normals temps expected through the
weekend. Many locations will reach or exceed 90 degrees Sunday
afternoon. Most areas will remain dry through Saturday however there
is some indication that upslope flow Saturday afternoon may result
in some isolated convection over the Davis Mtn region. For now,
decided to leave mention out of the forecast due to lack of
moisture. Upper ridging will begin to flatten and shift east Sunday
while a Pacific upper low enters the SW ConUS, leaving SE NM and
W TX under SW flow aloft headed into next week. The dryline looks to
return this weekend but very little moisture return leave
thunderstorm chances low to nil attm.

Thunderstorm chances begin to increase Monday as the upper low
approaches, spreading upper forcing for ascent across the region.
Will continue to see moisture increase Monday night as the dryline
retreats west toward eastern NM. Tuesday looks to be the best day
for dryline thunderstorms with ample available moisture (PWATS
greater than 1 inch) and greatest upper forcing. Attm, it looks as
though Tuesday could be a good candidate for severe weather and will
continue to monitor the possibility. As the dryline retreats
Tuesday night, thunderstorms may persist overnight with the help
of a present LLJ. Upper forcing will decrease Wednesday with the
departing upper low and precip chances will diminish from west to
east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  51  85  55  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              83  53  86  56  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                86  50  88  52  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  83  53  85  56  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  54  86  57  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  56  83  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  49  85  52  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  41  80  45  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  53  86  56  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  82  53  86  56  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    85  51  89  56  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/27

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293
FXUS64 KMAF 300508
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with light south winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds and clear skies will lead to another night of much
below normal temperatures. It will not be nearly as cool as last
night due to a light southerly return flow and modifying air mass.
Even so, a light freeze looks possible again across some portions
of the Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains. Will issue a Special
Weather Statement for late tonight and early Thursday morning for
the aforementioned areas urging residents to take precautions for
sensitive vegetation.

Dry with moderating temperatures are expected Thursday through
Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds over the forecast area.
Temperatures are expected to climb to near normal values Thursday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm with lee troughing and a
low level thermal ridging expected.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday. A dry line
is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance
continues to generate some isolated convection Sunday afternoon
and evening in these areas and could be reasonable given the amount
of mid level moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will
remain above normal with low level thermal ridging in place with
the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by
next Monday through Wednesday as an  upper level low pressure
system approaches from the desert southwest. Could be the
first bout of significant severe weather for the forecast area
this year.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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256
FXUS64 KMAF 292310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Light and
variable winds will become southerly with mostly clear skies over
the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds and clear skies will lead to another night of much
below normal temperatures. It will not be nearly as cool as last
night due to a light southerly return flow and modifying air mass.
Even so, a light freeze looks possible again across some portions
of the Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains. Will issue a Special
Weather Statement for late tonight and early Thursday morning for
the aforementioned areas urging residents to take precautions for
sensitive vegetation.

Dry with moderating temperatures are expected Thursday through
Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds over the forecast area.
Temperatures are expected to climb to near normal values Thursday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm with lee troughing and a
low level thermal ridging expected.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday. A dry line
is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance
continues to generate some isolated convection Sunday afternoon
and evening in these areas and could be reasonable given the amount
of mid level moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will
remain above normal with low level thermal ridging in place with
the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by
next Monday through Wednesday as an  upper level low pressure
system approaches from the desert southwest. Could be the
first bout of significant severe weather for the forecast area
this year.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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985
FXUS64 KMAF 291913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds and clear skies will lead to another night of much
below normal temperatures. It will not be nearly as cool as last
night due to a light southerly return flow and modifying air mass.
Even so, a light freeze looks possible again across some portions
of the Marfa Plateau and Davis Mountains. Will issue a Special
Weather Statement for late tonight and early Thursday morning for
the aforementioned areas urging residents to take precautions for
sensitive vegetation.

Dry with moderating temperatures are expected Thursday through
Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds over the forecast area.
Temperatures are expected to climb to near normal values Thursday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm with lee troughing and a
low level thermal ridging expected.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday. A dry line
is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon. Guidance
continues to generate some isolated convection Sunday afternoon
and evening in these areas and could be reasonable given the amount
of mid level moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will
remain above normal with low level thermal ridging in place with
the dry line.

Thunderstorm chances will increase significantly area wide by
next Monday through Wednesday as an  upper level low pressure
system approaches from the desert southwest. Could be the
first bout of significant severe weather for the forecast area
this year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  80  51  83  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              45  80  51  84  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                42  85  47  87  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  83  54  85  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           47  84  54  87  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  77  55  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   44  79  48  86  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  76  37  78  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    46  82  51  84  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  48  81  53  83  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    43  85  52  87  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/12

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856
FXUS64 KMAF 291713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with winds less than 10kts thru the night
underneath northerly mid level flow.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging has led to
temperatures rapidly cooling into the 30s and 40s overnight tonight.
Could even see some near or below freezing temps near the Davis Mtns
and Marfa Plateau by sunrise. As a result,a late season Freeze
Warning remains in effect for this area from 5-9am today. Otherwise,
light winds will continue through the day under sunny skies as the
surface ridge slow slides east. High temperatures will warm into the
70s for much of the region today but still remain roughly 5-10
degrees below seasonal normals.

Not much change to the previous forecast package, remaining dry for
the next several days. Still expecting a warming trend through the
end of the week as upper ridging slowly moves east over the area by
the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing will
strengthen, promoting the return of southerly flow to the region.
Above normal temps expected by Friday with afternoon highs generally
in the upper 80s to near 90 most locations through Monday.

Upper ridging will weaken/flatten Sunday, becoming more zonal
through Monday. The dryline looks to return to the region by this
weekend but very little moisture return leave thunderstorm chances
rather low attm. Will see a bit more moisture return Monday
however the dryline may be too far east with only a slight chance
possible across eastern zones. Tuesday, the dryline looks to be
farther west, allowing more moisture return to the region. At the
same time, an Pacific upper trough will approach from the west,
increasing upper forcing for ascent. Tuesday looks to be the
better day for dryline thunderstorms for now and will continue at
least chance PoPs for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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275
FXUS64 KMAF 291502 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1002 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Have issued products to reflect expiration of NPW freeze warning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging has led to
temperatures rapidly cooling into the 30s and 40s overnight tonight.
Could even see some near or below freezing temps near the Davis Mtns
and Marfa Plateau by sunrise. As a result,a late season Freeze
Warning remains in effect for this area from 5-9am today. Otherwise,
light winds will continue through the day under sunny skies as the
surface ridge slow slides east. High temperatures will warm into the
70s for much of the region today but still remain roughly 5-10
degrees below seasonal normals.

Not much change to the previous forecast package, remaining dry for
the next several days. Still expecting a warming trend through the
end of the week as upper ridging slowly moves east over the area by
the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing will
strengthen, promoting the return of southerly flow to the region.
Above normal temps expected by Friday with afternoon highs generally
in the upper 80s to near 90 most locations through Monday.

Upper ridging will weaken/flatten Sunday, becoming more zonal
through Monday. The dryline looks to return to the region by this
weekend but very little moisture return leave thunderstorm chances
rather low attm. Will see a bit more moisture return Monday
however the dryline may be too far east with only a slight chance
possible across eastern zones. Tuesday, the dryline looks to be
farther west, allowing more moisture return to the region. At the
same time, an Pacific upper trough will approach from the west,
increasing upper forcing for ascent. Tuesday looks to be the
better day for dryline thunderstorms for now and will continue at
least chance PoPs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  48  84  52  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              74  49  85  54  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74  47  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  76  51  85  55  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  50  84  55  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  51  80  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   71  46  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  76  43  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  50  84  54  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  74  50  83  54  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    75  48  87  52  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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996
FXUS64 KMAF 291100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging has led to
temperatures rapidly cooling into the 30s and 40s overnight tonight.
Could even see some near or below freezing temps near the Davis Mtns
and Marfa Plateau by sunrise. As a result,a late season Freeze
Warning remains in effect for this area from 5-9am today. Otherwise,
light winds will continue through the day under sunny skies as the
surface ridge slow slides east. High temperatures will warm into the
70s for much of the region today but still remain roughly 5-10
degrees below seasonal normals.

Not much change to the previous forecast package, remaining dry for
the next several days. Still expecting a warming trend through the
end of the week as upper ridging slowly moves east over the area by
the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing will
strengthen, promoting the return of southerly flow to the region.
Above normal temps expected by Friday with afternoon highs generally
in the upper 80s to near 90 most locations through Monday.

Upper ridging will weaken/flatten Sunday, becoming more zonal
through Monday. The dryline looks to return to the region by this
weekend but very little moisture return leave thunderstorm chances
rather low attm. Will see a bit more moisture return Monday
however the dryline may be too far east with only a slight chance
possible across eastern zones. Tuesday, the dryline looks to be
farther west, allowing more moisture return to the region. At the
same time, an Pacific upper trough will approach from the west,
increasing upper forcing for ascent. Tuesday looks to be the
better day for dryline thunderstorms for now and will continue at
least chance PoPs for now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

10

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783
FXUS64 KMAF 290802
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds, clear skies and cool surface ridging has led to
temperatures rapidly cooling into the 30s and 40s overnight tonight.
Could even see some near or below freezing temps near the Davis Mtns
and Marfa Plateau by sunrise. As a result,a late season Freeze
Warning remains in effect for this area from 5-9am today. Otherwise,
light winds will continue through the day under sunny skies as the
surface ridge slow slides east. High temperatures will warm into the
70s for much of the region today but still remain roughly 5-10
degrees below seasonal normals.

Not much change to the previous forecast package, remaining dry for
the next several days. Still expecting a warming trend through the
end of the week as upper ridging slowly moves east over the area by
the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, lee troughing will
strengthen, promoting the return of southerly flow to the region.
Above normal temps expected by Friday with afternoon highs generally
in the upper 80s to near 90 most locations through Monday.

Upper ridging will weaken/flatten Sunday, becoming more zonal
through Monday. The dryline looks to return to the region by this
weekend but very little moisture return leave thunderstorm chances
rather low attm. Will see a bit more moisture return Monday
however the dryline may be too far east with only a slight chance
possible across eastern zones. Tuesday, the dryline looks to be
farther west, allowing more moisture return to the region. At the
same time, an Pacific upper trough will approach from the west,
increasing upper forcing for ascent. Tuesday looks to be the
better day for dryline thunderstorms for now and will continue at
least chance PoPs for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73  48  84  52  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              74  49  85  54  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                74  47  86  51  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  76  51  85  55  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  50  84  55  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          68  51  80  56  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   71  46  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  76  43  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  50  84  54  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  74  50  83  54  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    75  48  87  52  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING until 9 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

10/27

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223
FXUS64 KMAF 290521
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1221 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered across extreme northeast
Texas will continue to move northeast away from the region.
At the surface unseasonably cool surface high pressure is
centered over the extreme eastern high plains of Colorado and New
Mexico. This surface high is forecast to slide southeast tonight
and be centered over and near the Davis Mountains and Marfa
Plateau by sunrise. Will go ahead and issue a late season Freeze
Warning for the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau for late tonight
and early Tuesday morning. It will be a close call. Some locations
will probably not freeze but the potential exists for a few locations
to fall into the 30 to 32 degree range given that some snow flurries
were reported in the Davis Mountains this morning and skies will
clear with the center of the surface high passing over that region.

It will be dry with moderating temperatures expected Wednesday
through Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds and remains over
the forecast area. Temperatures will still be below normal Wednesday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday and Monday.
A dryline is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon
both days. Guidance is breaking out some convection in these areas
both days and could be reasonable given the amount of mid level
moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will be above normal
with low level thermal ridging in place.

Thunderstorm chances will increase area wide by Tuesday due to a
upper level low pressure system approaching from the desert
southwest.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM to 9 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa
     Plateau.


&&

$$

10

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427
FXUS64 KMAF 282258
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
541 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Gusty and
elevated north to northeast winds will begin to diminish over the
next few hours.  Winds will become light and variable into the
overnight hours and will continue into Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area centered across extreme northeast
Texas will continue to move northeast away from the region.
At the surface unseasonably cool surface high pressure is
centered over the extreme eastern high plains of Colorado and New
Mexico. This surface high is forecast to slide southeast tonight
and be centered over and near the Davis Mountains and Marfa
Plateau by sunrise. Will go ahead and issue a late season Freeze
Warning for the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau for late tonight
and early Tuesday morning. It will be a close call. Some locations
will probably not freeze but the potential exists for a few locations
to fall into the 30 to 32 degree range given that some snow flurries
were reported in the Davis Mountains this morning and skies will
clear with the center of the surface high passing over that region.

It will be dry with moderating temperatures expected Wednesday
through Saturday as an upper ridge slowly builds and remains over
the forecast area. Temperatures will still be below normal Wednesday
but should become above normal by Friday and Saturday as 850
millibar temperatures continue to warm.

The flow aloft is forecast to become zonal by Sunday and Monday.
A dryline is forecast to sharpen in this flow and head toward the
Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos region late in the afternoon
both days. Guidance is breaking out some convection in these areas
both days and could be reasonable given the amount of mid level
moisture that is also depicted. Temperatures will be above normal
with low level thermal ridging in place.

Thunderstorm chances will increase area wide by Tuesday due to a
upper level low pressure system approaching from the desert
southwest.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FREEZE WARNING from 5 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Marfa Plateau.


&&

$$

99

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