Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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906
FXUS64 KMAF 221112
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Latest model runs are indicating clouds/CIGS/VBSY may lift a
little earlier than previous runs and generally have TAFs going
VFR around 21Z or a little earlier. Still looks like se winds will
increase late this afternoon/evening with low level jet, 15-20kts
surface winds. Finally have opted to intro a PROB30 group in the
forecast to account for storms expected in SE NM/NW PB Saturday
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The shortwave responsible for the precipitation over the past 24
hours will lift to the northeast today, with weak midlevel height
rises in its wake as precipitation gradually tapers off from
southwest to northeast. While partly to mostly cloudy skies will be
the rule today, temperatures will rebound noticeably, with highs in
the 70s across the southeast New Mexico Plains and Permian Basin, to
80s across the Trans Pecos and points west and south. Continued
southeasterly surface flow will maintain the very moist boundary
layer, and despite much of the northern half of the forecast area
remaining capped, locations across the Big Bend area and Lower Trans
Pecos could once again see strong to severe thunderstorms late this
afternoon and into this evening as storms develop across higher
terrain and move into a moderately unstable environment
characterized by temperatures in the middle 80s and ample shear.
Primary risks with these storms are large hail and damaging winds,
as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Tonight, height falls will begin to overspread western portions of
the area as the trough to the west begins to progress eastward,
yielding increasing midlevel lapse rates as well as a strengthening
southerly low level jet.  A series of weak impulses embedded in the
southwest flow through tonight ahead of the trough will serve to
amplify ascent over the area, particularly across southeast New
Mexico and the northwestern Permian Basin. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in coverage
across the aforementioned area tonight, and will be capable of
producing large hail and damaging winds.  Locally heavy rainfall
will also continue to be a concern, with some areas still saturated
from previous rainfall over the past week, and precipitable water
values 2 standard deviations above normal.

The threat of thunderstorms will continue into Saturday as the
trough continues its eastward progression, with the best chance
shifting across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin coincident with
the dryline, which would serve as a focus for additional storm
development in the wake of departing storms from Friday night.
Rebounding temperatures, further steepening lapse rates, and
increasing forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching trough will
be favorable for strong to severe storm development once again, and
given ample speed and directional shear, supercells are possible.
Large hail, damaging wind, and an isolated tornado or two would be
the primary threats.

On Sunday, the trough axis will finally shift across the area, with
winds becoming westerly to southwesterly in its wake, allowing for
warmer and drier conditions across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas.  Aside from a chance of storms across the far eastern Permian
Basin and Lower Trans Pecos on Monday where moisture will be most
available, dry conditions look to prevail through midweek.  The
warming trend will also continue through midweek, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 80s to lower to mid 90s by Wednesday.
However, models are in agreement regarding the development of yet
another western CONUS trough late in the period, which would mark a
return to an unsettled weather pattern with increasing precipitation
chances heading into the end of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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