Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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922
FXUS64 KMAF 231936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
West Texas remains on the western periphery of an upper high
centered over the Mississippi River valley. This will allow
convection to develop over the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains and
move north into southeast New Mexico, a pattern which will repeat
for the next several days. High temperatures will remain slightly
above normal and it will be very tough to beat guidance through
next Wednesday.

An upper trough currently over the northwestern U.S. will slowly
move east through early next week reaching the Central Plains by
Thursday. There is more disagreement with the strength and timing
of this system from yesterday with the ECMWF and Canadian models
deeper and slower than the GFS. Do not like the fact that the
ECMWF is deeper with the upper trough yet weaker with the surface
front so the battle is mainly between the Canadian and GFS right
now. All models have slowed the front down from yesterday
perhaps indicating a deeper upper trough may be the best solution.
Hopefully that will be true as it would give us better rain
chances but with so much uncertainty will keep PoPs at slight
chance for now. A stronger front as well as clouds and precip
would no doubt give us a nice cold pool at the surface so any
increase in PoPs will likely mean a need to lower forecast highs
for Thu/Fri. A return of ridging next weekend will bring more
warmer temps.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72  95  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  97  73  96  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70  97  72  96  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  74  97  74  97  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  97  72  96  /   0  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  88  66  87  /  10  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  95  69  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   62  89  63  88  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  97  72  96  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  73  97  73  95  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73  99  74  98  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/10

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