Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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894
FXUS64 KMAF 250519
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1117 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Prevailing VFR conditions with occasional MVFR conditions at some of
the terminals are expected overnight as an upper level disturbance
moves across southeast New Mexico and west Texas. TEMPO MVFR
conditions in light snow and fog is expected at KPEQ, KINK and KMAF.
Confidence was not high enough to include elsewhere. Conditions will
rapidly improve by or shortly after 12z Wednesday with clear skies
developing at all the terminals with west winds of 10 to 20 mph and
gusty developing by late morning and continuing Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

UPDATE...

Sending a forecast update this evening to increase PoPs tonight
across the Permian Basin and Upper Trans Pecos.

Precip has increased in coverage over the southeast Permian Basin
in response to strong lift associated with the upper low now over
S NM. Reports from that area indicate some of this precip is
falling as freezing rain and light sleet. Expect this first batch
of precip to move east shortly while the next round associated
with the center of the upper low moves in from the west. Mostly
snow is expected with this overnight round as mid level temps cool.
Amounts are still expected to stay generally under 1 inch although
some locations may see more if any banding occurs. Most of the
precip should be east of the area by sunrise with much warmer
temps by afternoon!

rhluchan

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

After a brief reprieve, there is another chance for wintry
precipitation tonight, mainly along and north of Interstate 10. An
upper level low, currently over central Arizona per latest water
vapor imagery, will eject eastward tonight across southern New
Mexico and west Texas. There will be plenty of lift associated with
this system, due to an accompanying 300mb jet streak rounding the
base of the shortwave, as well as 500mb height falls on the order of
15dm to 20dm, and a coincident vort max. Model soundings indicate a
deep moisture profile overnight as well, and while temperatures in
the lowest 100mb tonight will start out above freezing, the
remainder of the sounding remains below zero, thus the primary
precipitation type should be snow, after a brief initial period of
light rain. QPF is fairly light with this system, and snow
accumulations should generally be around one half inch, mainly
across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos between 06Z and 12Z.
However, models indicate midlevel lapse rates on the order of
-7.5C/km as the low passes overhead tonight, which could potentially
provide the additional lift necessary to amplify snow amounts
substantially in a localized area. While it`s certainly something to
keep in mind, have not leaned toward more substantial snowfall, as
models still keep the QPF and accumulations low.

The system will quickly exit the area on Wednesday morning, and with
subsidence and strong west winds in its wake,  skies will clear and
any accumulated snow will melt quickly as temperatures rise through
the morning. Forecast highs tomorrow are in the low to middle 60s
across the area, with around 70 degrees possible for the Rio Grande
Valley. The warmup will be short-lived, however, as another cold
front moves through the region Wednesday night, and strong cold
advection in its wake will serve to once again drop temperatures
well below normal, with highs in the 40s to low 50s across much of
the area Thursday, and highs Friday ranging from the upper 20s
across southeast New Mexico and northern Permian Basin, to upper 40s
far south toward the Big Bend. There is also another chance for some
snow on Thursday night and Friday, mainly across the Upper Trans
Pecos and northern Permian Basin, though currently accumulations
look to be light.

Temperatures will begin to rebound Saturday, with near to slightly
above normal temperatures expected Sunday and Monday. There are a
couple more chances for some light precipitation late in the
extended, mainly rain or perhaps a wintry mix at night. However,
models deviate by late weekend/early next week, thus have maintained
the blended forecast that far out, and will fine-tune any
precipitation chances as models come into better agreement.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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