Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 230321

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
921 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015


See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.



VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, in light sfc flow
gradually veering to SE-S, w/an increase in high clouds near the
end of the forecast period, as well as a 35+kt nocturnal LLJ.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 129 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015/


Dry conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through Tuesday night as northwest flow aloft
becomes zonal over the next couple of days with a dry air mass
remaining in place at the surface.

After a cold morning and warmer temperatures shaping up for this
afternoon under sunny skies across the region, another chilly
night is on tap. Though surface ridge pushes off to the east, the
surface pressure gradient will remain relaxed enough for winds to
become light overnight under continuing clear skies, allowing
good radiational cooling. Will adjust temperatures down a few
degrees over Marfa Plateau, but otherwise making only minor
changes to overnight temperatures.

Warm air advection slow to set in Monday with 850 mb temperatures
rising only a few degrees as compared to today with some high
cloudiness associated with a weak wave streaming across the area.
Will again make only minor changes to current temperature forecast.
Generally trending toward cooler NAM guidance, though making more
significant adjustment over Stockton Plateau where warming appears a
bit too aggressive.

Monday night into Tuesday morning, return flow will increase east of
surface trough developing in lee of the Rockies allowing for
better warm air advection. Even so, low level moisture will be
slow to return. With decreasing cloudiness overnight, good surface
cooling is expected. Current forecast representing a good
compromise between NAM and GFS and close to ECMWF guidance and
ensemble guidance appears on track. Will cool temperatures a few
degrees over northern zones.

Looking for clear skies and continuing warm air advection to bring
very mild conditions to the area on Tuesday with 850 mb generally
around 5 C warmer Tuesday afternoon compared to Monday.

The warming trend continues into Thanksgiving day with highs around
10 degrees above normal after relatively mild low temperatures in
the 40s and 50s. With increasing moisture, showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Wednesday mainly over the mountains. Wednesday
night into Thanksgiving day, rain chances will increase as upper low
descends to near the Four Corners bringing a southwest flow with
embedded shortwaves across the area. Rain chances are expected to be
enhanced as flow taps into tropical Pacific moisture.

A strong cold front is expected to push at least through the Permian
Basin by daybreak Friday and the rest of the area by late afternoon.
Temperatures north of the front will plunge into the 30s and 40s.
Precipitation chances will continue through the day Friday through
Saturday as a warm moist flow aloft is lifted over the cold air mass
at the surface. This scenario may become more complicated Friday
night and and Saturday night as temperatures drop below freezing
across southeast New Mexico, the Permian Basin and in the mountains.
Freezing rain is possible in these areas. Temperatures aloft are
currently expected to remain too warm for snow.

There is some uncertainty concerning how cold this early season
arctic air mass will be, so it will be advisable to remain alert to
the forecast conditions, particularly with the approach of a busy
holiday travel weekend.







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