Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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981
FXUS64 KMAF 041807
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
107 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Main concern this forecast period are thunderstorms expected to
affect area TAF sites beginning later this afternoon. Have relied
heavily upon high resolution guidance to fine-tune timing of
convection at the terminals, though timing for KCNM and KHOB
/around 21Z/ as well as KMAF and KINK /around 00Z/ from the
previous TAF looks to be on track. Models indicate that greatest
concentration of storms will be across southeast New Mexico and
the Permian Basin, thus have maintained periods of prevailing TSRA
at those TAF sites, and just handled KPEQ and KFST with TEMPOs for
now. Storms that develop could become severe, capable of
large hail and high winds, as well as torrential rainfall, which
could reduce visibilities into IFR/LIFR territory. As always, the
devil is in the details, and exact timing/vsby restrictions will
likely be handled with amendments through the evening.
Otherwise, gusty southeast winds look to continue, with higher
variable gusts possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough along the CA coast this morning will rapidly move
east and bring a chance of storms to the region beginning today.
By Tuesday this low will move over the 4 corners region and cross
the Rockies early Wednesday.  After it passes east another strong
low over the Pacific NW will dig down the West Coast and keep SW
flow over the region into the weekend.  Overall temperatures will be
near to above normal through the week.

There was good development of storms across the west yesterday and
some of them were strong but they did stay below severe levels.  The
atmosphere remains unstable as scattered showers and thunderstorms
continue early this morning across the Trans Pecos region.  Expect
storm coverage to increase through the day but especially during the
late afternoon into evening as a shortwave... daytime heating and
upslope flow combine.  Will have the potential for both severe wx
and flooding today.

Various model qpf not as in agreement as I would like but some are
developing heavy precip tonight.  With SE flow will have increasing
low level moisture with dewpts trying to climb into the 60s so
potential for heavy rain exists.  Model soundings at MAF show by 12z
this morning PW will climb to over 1 inch and remain elevated for
the next 24 hrs.  Therefore will continue the Flash Flood Watch for
Southeast New Mexico and the Western Permian Basin but not expand it
at this time.  Could see Dawson county possibly added at a later
time.

As far as severe threat SPC has a slight risk over the western 2/3
of the area today and the eastern half of the CWA on Tuesday.  Main
hazards today will be large hail and damaging wind... but SPC points
out potential for very large hail.  With supercells expected
isolated tornadoes possible.  Have mention of severe in today but
models are trying to blow precip out of the area quickly Tuesday so
have not included severe wording yet on Tuesday.  The dryline looks
better Tuesday but does not match up with projected qpf.  The dry
line should only move as far east as a Hobbs to Marathon line by
late afternoon so potential for storms to develop farther west of
model qpf should continue through the day.  Any of these storms that
develop on the dryline may quickly become strong to severe and will
highlight in the HWO.

With more upper lows to the west and SW flow aloft potential for
additional storms mainly over the east will continue each day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 6 PM MDT this evening through late
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...
     Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...
     Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday
     morning FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Gaines.


&&

$$

84

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