Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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995
FXUS64 KMAF 292325
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the afternoon storms have moved off to the east and not
expecting much else the rest of the night. Do have a large
boundary on radar across the central Permian Basin that will have
to be monitored for development. The wind field is generally
light and variable but should tend to go around to south by
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak stationary front across the Permian Basin is forecast to
retreat northward tonight and early Wednesday. Will continue
isolated thunderstorms north of the boundary across the extreme
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and the mountains
through Wednesday morning in the cooler air aloft. The boundary
is expected to push back south toward the lower Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains by Thursday morning due to the amplification
of the upper low across eastern Canada. Accordingly the chance of
showers and thunderstorms (slight chance) will increase north of
this boundary later Wednesday and Wednesday night for the northern
and central Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos and including southeast
New Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River Thursday and Thursday night. This will push the better
chance of convection to areas mainly south and west of the
Pecos River during the day Thursday. Behind this front high
temperatures Thursday are expected to be around 15 degrees
cooler north of the Pecos River. The chance of thunderstorms
will include the entire forecast area Thursday night due to
a shortwave tracking into the area from the northwest with
some warm advection taking place above and behind the front.

For Friday through Sunday the front is forecast to stall along
and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance of
thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south and
west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler
air behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover
expected areawide as well.

Beyond Sunday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
mountains in upslope flow on Monday. The GFS model is indicating
much more widespread convection Monday and Tuesday due to
shortwaves trapped within the upper ridge in the area. The ECMWF
model is not indicating this scenario so will not go with that
solultion this far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72 102  65  84  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  67  82  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72 103  69  87  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76 108  76  95  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 103  69  91  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  96  62  79  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  98  65  86  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                   62  94  66  85  /  10  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73 103  68  85  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  75 102  68  86  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    75 106  72  90  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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