636
FXUS64 KMAF 260531
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS PERMIAN
BASIN AND TRANS PECOS NEXT FEW HOURS. ONLY HAVE MENTION OF TSRA
AT PEQ AND FST. MAY SEE A LITTLE STRATUS IN THE EAST IN THE
MORNING. WIND WILL BY ERRATIC AND VERY GUSTY NEAR STORMS BUT WILL
RETURN TO SOUTHERLY AFTER THEY PASS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR EXPIRATION OF SEVERE STORM WATCH 219.
DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MLCAPE OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG ALLOWING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SO FAR
ALONG WITH 20 TO 30KT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DESPITE A LACK OF
0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ANOTHER SEVERE STORMS OR TWO,
MAINLY OVER THE TRANS PECOS. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE, WILL ALLOW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219 TO EXPIRE AT 26/05Z. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. 67
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
403
FXUS64 KMAF 260506
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 AM CDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR EXPIRATION OF SEVERE STORM WATCH 219.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MLCAPE OF 3000 TO 3500 J/KG ALLOWING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE SO FAR
ALONG WITH 20 TO 30KT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. DESPITE A LACK OF
0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS FOR ANOTHER SEVERE STORMS OR TWO,
MAINLY OVER THE TRANS PECOS. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE, WILL ALLOW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 219 TO EXPIRE AT 26/05Z. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY. 67
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 97 69 92 / 10 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 69 95 70 90 / 10 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 65 100 66 96 / 10 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 69 94 70 92 / 10 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 70 98 70 95 / 10 10 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 91 62 84 / 10 10 10 10
HOBBS NM 65 97 66 95 / 10 10 10 10
MARFA TX 61 92 61 88 / 10 10 10 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 96 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 69 97 70 91 / 10 10 10 10
WINK TX 70 102 71 97 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
481
FXUS64 KMAF 252255
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH NIGHTFALL. SOME OF
THESE STORMS MAY EVEN MOVE EAST THROUGH KCNM AND KHOB...IF NOT KPEQ
AND KINK. SINCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MORE PRONOUNCED FURTHER
NORTH SO FAR...AND THESE AREAS APPEAR TO HAVE MORE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT...WILL INCLUDE TEMPORARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT KCNM AND
KHOB. ASIDE FROM MVFR CEILINGS AFFECTING KMAF IN THE 26/11 TO
26/15Z TIMEFRAME...THINK VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 119 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
WITH MORE EXPECTED DOWN INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
INTENSIFYING INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CAP IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE MAY
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ERODE THE
CAP BUT NOT MUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THERE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRY DUE TO WEAK UPPER
RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS BOTH DAYS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS PERHAPS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OR ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS MOVING OUT OF CALIFORNIA BACKING
UPPER WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER WEST. WEAK DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY GET THE
DRYLINE ACTIVE AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THEM IN THE EAST FOR NOW BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA. LOWERING
HEIGHTS WILL ALSO HELP HIGH TEMPS DROP TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE TROUGH PASSES THURSDAY AND ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 67 95 68 97 / 10 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 68 93 69 95 / 10 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 66 99 65 100 / 20 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 69 93 69 94 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 96 70 98 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 62 91 / 20 0 10 10
HOBBS NM 64 97 65 97 / 20 10 10 10
MARFA TX 60 90 61 92 / 20 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 68 94 69 96 / 10 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 68 94 69 97 / 10 10 10 10
WINK TX 68 99 70 102 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/10
932
FXUS64 KMAF 251819
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
119 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
WITH MORE EXPECTED DOWN INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
INTENSIFYING INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A CAP IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA. THERE MAY
BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL ERODE THE
CAP BUT NOT MUCH ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THERE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRY DUE TO WEAK UPPER
RIDGING/ZONAL FLOW. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS BOTH DAYS VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS PERHAPS
DEVELOPING IN THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS OR ALONG THE LEE TROUGH BUT
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS MOVING OUT OF CALIFORNIA BACKING
UPPER WINDS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND PULLING DEEPER MOISTURE
FURTHER WEST. WEAK DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MAY GET THE
DRYLINE ACTIVE AND HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP THEM IN THE EAST FOR NOW BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WEST TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA. LOWERING
HEIGHTS WILL ALSO HELP HIGH TEMPS DROP TO NEAR NORMAL.
THE TROUGH PASSES THURSDAY AND ZONAL FLOW ONCE AGAIN WILL BRING A
RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 67 95 68 97 / 10 10 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 68 93 69 95 / 10 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 66 99 65 100 / 20 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 69 93 69 94 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 96 70 98 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 62 91 / 20 0 10 10
HOBBS NM 64 97 65 97 / 20 10 10 10
MARFA TX 60 90 61 92 / 20 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 68 94 69 96 / 10 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 68 94 69 97 / 10 10 10 10
WINK TX 68 99 70 102 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/10
504
FXUS64 KMAF 251650
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1150 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE TERMINALS. GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED AT KMAF BETWEEN 26/10Z AND 26/15Z TIMEFRAME.
12
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A CALMER NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A LONE SUPERCELL MOVED OUT
OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BEFORE
DYING OUT. SOME MORE CONVECTION IS FIRING OFF IN THE HIGHLANDS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO WEST OF PRESIDIO...AND NOW CONVECTION IS FIRING
UP IN REEVES AND PECOS COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AS DEW PTS REMAIN HIGH.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE HAVE CONTINUED THE ISOLATED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS BRING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WITH BULK SHEAR VERY WEAK WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE SEVERE STORMS
AS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PULSE STORMS. TEMPS THIS AFTN
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS.
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DECENT MOISTURE HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH H85 TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER HAVE WIDESPREAD
90S WITH TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ON MONDAY THE
NAM BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CWA WITH THE DRYLINE NEAR THE
PERMIAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. STILL...HAVE CONTINUED THE ISOLATED CHANCES OVER THE
DAVIS...CHISOS...AND CHINATI MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS. HAVE WARMED TEMPS A BIT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE TRANS
PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE DRYLINE...HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL...OR WHEN IT WILL
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE ISOLATED CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LEFT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING HILLS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 86 66 93 68 / 20 10 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 85 67 91 68 / 20 20 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 94 64 100 66 / 20 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 89 68 96 68 / 20 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 88 67 92 70 / 20 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 84 61 88 63 / 20 10 0 0
HOBBS NM 87 62 94 65 / 20 10 0 0
MARFA TX 85 58 88 60 / 20 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 86 68 92 69 / 20 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 86 67 92 69 / 20 10 0 0
WINK TX 89 67 94 70 / 20 10 0 0
STROBIN
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
173
FXUS64 KMAF 251121
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF STRATUS HAVE PUSHED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN TO SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. EXPECT MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AT MAF AND HOB... AND TO
LESSER EXTENT INK AND PEQ. COULD SEE A FEW STORMS AROUND THE AREA
TODAY BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013/
DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A CALMER NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A LONE SUPERCELL MOVED OUT
OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BEFORE
DYING OUT. SOME MORE CONVECTION IS FIRING OFF IN THE HIGHLANDS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO WEST OF PRESIDIO...AND NOW CONVECTION IS FIRING
UP IN REEVES AND PECOS COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AS DEW PTS REMAIN HIGH.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE HAVE CONTINUED THE ISOLATED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS BRING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WITH BULK SHEAR VERY WEAK WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE SEVERE STORMS
AS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PULSE STORMS. TEMPS THIS AFTN
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS.
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DECENT MOISTURE HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH H85 TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER HAVE WIDESPREAD
90S WITH TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ON MONDAY THE
NAM BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CWA WITH THE DRYLINE NEAR THE
PERMIAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. STILL...HAVE CONTINUED THE ISOLATED CHANCES OVER THE
DAVIS...CHISOS...AND CHINATI MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS. HAVE WARMED TEMPS A BIT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE TRANS
PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE DRYLINE...HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL...OR WHEN IT WILL
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE ISOLATED CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LEFT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING HILLS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
607
FXUS64 KMAF 251000
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
500 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
IT WAS A CALMER NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. A LONE SUPERCELL MOVED OUT
OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BEFORE
DYING OUT. SOME MORE CONVECTION IS FIRING OFF IN THE HIGHLANDS OF
NORTHERN MEXICO WEST OF PRESIDIO...AND NOW CONVECTION IS FIRING
UP IN REEVES AND PECOS COUNTIES. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AS DEW PTS REMAIN HIGH.
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE HAVE CONTINUED THE ISOLATED CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS BRING A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS TODAY IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WITH BULK SHEAR VERY WEAK WOULD NOT EXPECT TO SEE SEVERE STORMS
AS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PULSE STORMS. TEMPS THIS AFTN
WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS.
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE CWA ON SUNDAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE
ATMOSPHERE. STILL...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DECENT MOISTURE HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTN AND EVENING
HOURS. WITH H85 TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER HAVE WIDESPREAD
90S WITH TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ON MONDAY THE
NAM BRINGS A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE CWA WITH THE DRYLINE NEAR THE
PERMIAN BASIN. HOWEVER...THE GFS KEEPS A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY...WHICH IS THE PREFERRED
SOLUTION. STILL...HAVE CONTINUED THE ISOLATED CHANCES OVER THE
DAVIS...CHISOS...AND CHINATI MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTN/EVENING
HOURS. HAVE WARMED TEMPS A BIT WITH TRIPLE DIGITS IN THE TRANS
PECOS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY IN THE WEEK. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK THE GFS AND ECMWF LIFT THE TROUGH NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS COULD ENHANCE THE DRYLINE...HOWEVER MODELS ARE IN
DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL...OR WHEN IT WILL
DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE ISOLATED CHANCES TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AND ON WEDNESDAY HAVE LEFT HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING HILLS.
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 86 66 93 68 / 20 10 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 85 67 91 68 / 20 20 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 94 64 100 66 / 20 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 89 68 96 68 / 20 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 88 67 92 70 / 20 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 84 61 88 63 / 20 10 0 0
HOBBS NM 87 62 94 65 / 20 10 0 0
MARFA TX 85 58 88 60 / 20 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 86 68 92 69 / 20 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 86 67 92 69 / 20 10 0 0
WINK TX 89 67 94 70 / 20 10 0 0
STROBIN
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
488
FXUS64 KMAF 250540
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1240 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
A FEW NOCTURNAL STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS SE NM THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OTHERWISE EXPECT CONVECTION IS OVER FOR
TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF TSRA AT CNM. ALREADY SEE
PATCHES OF STRATUS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN... THESE
WILL EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT
ALL TAF SITES BY SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
A COOL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AIDED BY LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN EAST WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER
THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT SO MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON WHERE TS
WILL DEVELOP. CAPES WILL BE 1-2KJ/KG BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 15-25KTS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH LOW SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS STRONG
WINDS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT PERHAPS EXTENDING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW KEEPING THE DRYLINE PULLED BACK AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THEN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY THE WEST COAST TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ACTIVATING THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED...SO WILL GO WITH A
WEAKER SOLUTION AND KEEP THE POPS IN THE EAST FOR NOW. A DEEPER
ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTION MAY BRING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST INTO
SE NM AND THE BIG BEND.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
410
FXUS64 KMAF 242302
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY, HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING RATHER SPARSE, IF NOT UNLIKELY, AT ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE POISED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15KT UNTIL WELL INTO THE NIGHT WHEN THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS, AND LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ON THESE WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR OR MVFR
CEILINGS OVER MOST TAF SITES AFTER 25/09Z. ANY LOWER CLOUDS THAT
FORM SHOULD SCATTER OUT NEAR 25/15Z. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
A COOL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AIDED BY LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN EAST WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER
THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT SO MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON WHERE TS
WILL DEVELOP. CAPES WILL BE 1-2KJ/KG BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 15-25KTS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH LOW SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS STRONG
WINDS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT PERHAPS EXTENDING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW KEEPING THE DRYLINE PULLED BACK AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THEN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY THE WEST COAST TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ACTIVATING THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED...SO WILL GO WITH A
WEAKER SOLUTION AND KEEP THE POPS IN THE EAST FOR NOW. A DEEPER
ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTION MAY BRING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST INTO
SE NM AND THE BIG BEND.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 85 66 92 / 30 20 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 85 67 91 / 40 20 20 10
CARLSBAD NM 66 95 64 100 / 20 20 10 0
DRYDEN TX 69 90 68 96 / 30 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 67 84 67 92 / 30 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 84 61 88 / 20 20 10 0
HOBBS NM 64 87 62 94 / 20 20 10 0
MARFA TX 60 87 58 88 / 30 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 67 84 68 91 / 30 20 10 10
ODESSA TX 68 85 67 91 / 30 20 10 0
WINK TX 69 88 67 94 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/10
461
FXUS64 KMAF 241951
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
251 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A COOL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AIDED BY LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN EAST WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER
THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT SO MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON WHERE TS
WILL DEVELOP. CAPES WILL BE 1-2KJ/KG BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 15-25KTS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH LOW SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS STRONG
WINDS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT PERHAPS EXTENDING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW KEEPING THE DRYLINE PULLED BACK AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THEN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY THE WEST COAST TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ACTIVATING THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED...SO WILL GO WITH A
WEAKER SOLUTION AND KEEP THE POPS IN THE EAST FOR NOW. A DEEPER
ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTION MAY BRING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST INTO
SE NM AND THE BIG BEND.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 85 66 92 / 30 20 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 85 67 91 / 40 20 20 10
CARLSBAD NM 66 95 64 100 / 20 20 10 0
DRYDEN TX 69 90 68 96 / 30 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 67 84 67 92 / 30 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 84 61 88 / 20 20 10 0
HOBBS NM 64 87 62 94 / 20 20 10 0
MARFA TX 60 87 58 88 / 30 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 67 84 68 91 / 30 20 10 10
ODESSA TX 68 85 67 91 / 30 20 10 0
WINK TX 69 88 67 94 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/10
496
FXUS64 KMAF 241733
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION REMAINS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WILL ISSUE AMENDMENTS IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPEQ. NOT REALLY CONVINCED OF
THIS JUST YET AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY EVENING. MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVED SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH SEVERAL INCHES FALLING FROM
SNYDER TO BIG SPRING TO BIG LAKE. ALL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY HAMPER CONVECTIVE CHANCES A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE S/W, THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. WITH THAT SAID,
EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAINLY AFTER LUNCHTIME. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
TODAY...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAIN.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
STORM COVERAGE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING CAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. MODELS THEN DISAGREE A BIT ON THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WX PATTERN. THE ECMWF EJECTS A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
998
FXUS64 KMAF 241136
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY MID MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNM. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER
THE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30
GROUPING. IF CONDITIONS WARRANT THE TAFS WILL BE AMENDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANY CHANGES IN WEATHER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY EVENING. MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVED SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH SEVERAL INCHES FALLING FROM
SNYDER TO BIG SPRING TO BIG LAKE. ALL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY HAMPER CONVECTIVE CHANCES A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE S/W, THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. WITH THAT SAID,
EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAINLY AFTER LUNCHTIME. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
TODAY...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAIN.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
STORM COVERAGE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING CAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. MODELS THEN DISAGREE A BIT ON THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WX PATTERN. THE ECMWF EJECTS A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
33
228
FXUS64 KMAF 241002
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY EVENING. MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVED SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH SEVERAL INCHES FALLING FROM
SNYDER TO BIG SPRING TO BIG LAKE. ALL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY HAMPER CONVECTIVE CHANCES A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE S/W, THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. WITH THAT SAID,
EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAINLY AFTER LUNCHTIME. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
TODAY...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAIN.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
STORM COVERAGE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING CAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. MODELS THEN DISAGREE A BIT ON THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WX PATTERN. THE ECMWF EJECTS A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 85 67 83 68 / 30 30 20 10
BIG SPRING TX 88 68 85 68 / 30 40 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 91 63 92 62 / 20 20 20 10
DRYDEN TX 87 69 86 68 / 30 30 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 86 66 86 68 / 30 30 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 82 61 87 64 / 20 20 20 10
HOBBS NM 85 63 84 62 / 30 20 20 20
MARFA TX 81 56 84 55 / 30 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 86 68 83 68 / 30 30 20 10
ODESSA TX 87 68 85 69 / 30 30 20 10
WINK TX 88 69 90 68 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
33/29
442
FXUS64 KMAF 240534
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MCS IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
STABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. RADAR IS INDC ISOLATED -SHRA AT BEST...SO WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. HAVE TAKEN OUT THE PROB30 IN THE TAFS FOR
FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPEST GULF MOISTURE WILL BE BLOCKED
BY THE COLD POOL FROM THIS AFTN/EVENINGS MCS FROM MOVING INTO THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTN LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
33
061
FXUS64 KMAF 240326
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ALL WATCHES HAVE EXPIRED AND SEVERE THREAT IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND
IS MAINLY CONFINED TO MITCHELL...GLASSCOCK...REAGAN..AND TERRELL
COUNTIES. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FCST THERE.
HEAVY RAIN IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR NOW IN MITCHELL...GLASSCOCK...AND
REAGAN COUNTIES THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 214 AND TORNADO WATCH
213 EARLY AND WILL LET REMAINDER OF THE FAR E AND S CWFA THAT ARE STILL
IN THE WATCHES EXPIRE AT 10 PM. TSTMS ARE STILL ACROSS THE E PB
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW ACROSS PB MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
BOUNDARY. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 10 PM FOR EXPIRATION
WATCHES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 85 68 84 / 30 30 40 20
BIG SPRING TX 61 86 69 85 / 50 30 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 90 65 92 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 74 87 69 88 / 20 30 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 64 87 67 86 / 20 30 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 84 61 87 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 87 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
MARFA TX 57 81 57 85 / 20 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 85 69 84 / 30 30 40 20
ODESSA TX 70 84 69 85 / 30 30 40 20
WINK TX 70 86 69 93 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
918
FXUS64 KMAF 240156 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
856 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 214 AND TORNADO WATCH
213 EARLY AND WILL LET REMAINDER OF THE FAR E AND S CWFA THAT ARE STILL
IN THE WATCHES EXPIRE AT 10 PM. TSTMS ARE STILL ACROSS THE E PB
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW ACROSS PB MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
BOUNDARY. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 10 PM FOR EXPIRATION
WATCHES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 85 68 84 / 30 30 40 20
BIG SPRING TX 69 86 69 85 / 50 30 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 90 65 92 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 74 87 69 88 / 20 30 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 87 67 86 / 20 30 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 84 61 87 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 87 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
MARFA TX 57 81 57 85 / 20 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 85 69 84 / 30 30 40 20
ODESSA TX 70 84 69 85 / 30 30 40 20
WINK TX 71 86 69 93 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
727
FXUS64 KMAF 232349
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
455
FXUS64 KMAF 231922
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 85 68 84 / 50 30 40 20
BIG SPRING TX 69 86 69 85 / 50 30 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 90 65 92 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 74 87 69 88 / 30 30 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 87 67 86 / 50 30 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 84 61 87 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 87 64 86 / 40 30 30 20
MARFA TX 57 81 57 85 / 50 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 85 69 84 / 40 30 40 20
ODESSA TX 70 84 69 85 / 40 30 40 20
WINK TX 71 86 69 93 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/80
486
FXUS64 KMAF 231823
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
123 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENTERING THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS DO NOT FORECAST A WIND SHIFT
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...THE BOUNDARY COULD POTENTIALLY GET AS FAR
WEST AS MAF AND HOB BY 00Z...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
EAST INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY
THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-13KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AROUND
18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION OUT
WEST FIRST...AND THEN THE NOCTURNAL MCS OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING
EASTERN TERMINALS. BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE
EASTERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CIGS
SHOULD STAY ABV 3KFT AGL UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05
764
FXUS64 KMAF 231014
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-13KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AROUND
18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION OUT
WEST FIRST...AND THEN THE NOCTURNAL MCS OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING
EASTERN TERMINALS. BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE
EASTERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CIGS
SHOULD STAY ABV 3KFT AGL UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
855
FXUS64 KMAF 230958
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 68 84 65 / 20 40 30 40
BIG SPRING TX 97 69 86 67 / 20 40 30 40
CARLSBAD NM 99 69 90 63 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 97 72 86 68 / 10 20 30 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 97 69 85 67 / 20 30 30 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 90 62 84 61 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 93 65 83 62 / 20 30 30 30
MARFA TX 91 59 81 57 / 20 30 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 96 69 83 66 / 20 40 30 40
ODESSA TX 96 70 84 67 / 20 40 30 40
WINK TX 98 71 88 69 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/29
789
FXUS64 KMAF 230541
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NOCTURNAL LLJ IS IN FULL GEAR TONIGHT...W/KMAF SHOWING 50KTS OUT
OF THE SSE...ABOUT 10KTS STRONGER THAN MODELS ANTICIPATED 24 HRS
AGO. THIS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE STRATUS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-11KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OMTNS AROUND 18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY CONVECTION
ATTM...PREFERRING TO LOOK AT THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
IN...AND MAKING THE FINAL CALL FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR/LIFR
CIGS WILL ALSO COME INTO THE PICTURE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.
THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
936
FXUS64 KMAF 222342
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES. LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALSO BUT HAVEN/T SEEN ANY INDICATIONS
OF LOW CLOUDS. SATELLITE DOES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
W AND BKN200-250 WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
INCREASE AFTER 18Z THUR. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED LEAVE PROB30 GROUPS OUT
BUT THEY WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO APPEAR IN TAFS IN THE 06Z AND 12Z
ISSUANCES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.
THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
297
FXUS64 KMAF 220943
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN TERMINALS...W/BASES 8-9
KFT AGL. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES...W/A 40+KT LLJ
MAINTAINING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
722
FXUS64 KMAF 220934
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 94 71 94 68 / 0 0 20 30
BIG SPRING TX 95 71 95 69 / 0 0 20 30
CARLSBAD NM 97 63 99 67 / 0 0 20 20
DRYDEN TX 95 74 95 73 / 0 0 10 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 96 72 96 69 / 0 0 20 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 92 67 89 63 / 0 0 20 20
HOBBS NM 92 65 94 65 / 0 0 20 20
MARFA TX 91 54 87 59 / 0 0 20 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 95 72 94 69 / 0 0 20 30
ODESSA TX 95 73 94 70 / 0 0 20 30
WINK TX 99 71 99 72 / 0 0 20 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/29
483
FXUS64 KMAF 220507
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WORRIES NEXT 24 HOURS...AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING AS RETURN FLOW
REESTABLISHES. 40+KT LLJ WILL KEEP WINDS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
198
FXUS64 KMAF 212318
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT VERY NEAR FST BUT THE PUSH IS WEAKENING. AS SUCH WINDS
WILL SLOWLY TURN E-SE OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS.
NAM12 DOES SUGGEST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS WED AM FST/MAF BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT INCLUDE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. S WINDS WED AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
121
FXUS64 KMAF 212100
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 59 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 20
BIG SPRING TX 59 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 60 97 65 98 / 0 0 0 20
DRYDEN TX 69 95 74 95 / 0 10 0 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 65 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 20
HOBBS NM 57 92 65 96 / 0 0 0 20
MARFA TX 46 88 54 89 / 0 0 0 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 61 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 20
ODESSA TX 62 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 20
WINK TX 61 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/70
086
FXUS64 KMAF 211738
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. MORNING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED AS
FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 10 AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT ALL
TERMINAL EXCEPT FOR CNM. WIND SPEEDS 10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
373
FXUS64 KMAF 211131
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN CONTINUING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
180
FXUS64 KMAF 211004
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 83 60 96 70 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 83 60 95 70 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 87 61 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 97 70 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 90 66 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 80 64 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 81 58 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 83 45 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 62 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 85 63 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 91 62 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/44
814
FXUS64 KMAF 210535
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY BEFORE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
948
FXUS64 KMAF 210310
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1010 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LITTLE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ARE MOVING OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, WHICH IS PREVENTING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FROM DECREASING. DESPITE THESE STRONGER WINDS,
DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE SPEEDS TO DROP OFF THROUGH 21/05Z OR
21/06Z. IN ADDITION, RH/S WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21/06Z, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. EVEN THOUGH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS, WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME DUE TO
THE ABOVE REASONS. WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED OFF, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21/02Z...BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KHOB AND KMAF THE
LONGEST WITH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DECREASING BEFORE 21/18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A
RESULTANT CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/70
060
FXUS64 KMAF 202252
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21/02Z...BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KHOB AND KMAF THE
LONGEST WITH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DECREASING BEFORE 21/18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A
RESULTANT CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27/70
312
FXUS64 KMAF 202036
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A RESULTANT
CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27/70
686
FXUS64 KMAF 201746
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
BEEN SPORADIC THIS MORNING AS THE DRYLINE MEANDERS AROUND HOWEVER
IT SHOULD CONTINUE A CONSTANT PUSH EASTWARD FROM NOW ON AND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
NEAR SUNSET AND REMAIN AOB 10KT OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27
253
FXUS64 KMAF 201127
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MSTR HAS RETURNED A LITTLE FARTHER W THAN THOUGHT AND
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW LOW CLOUDS ABOUT 60NM S OF MAF. STILL NOT
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MAF OR FST AREAS. WINDS OF
15-20KTS STILL LOOK LIKELY TODAY BY 15Z-18Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO AREA EARLY TUE AM AROUND 08Z-10Z BUT LOOKS DRY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
293
FXUS64 KMAF 200846
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 62 89 62 / 0 10 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 97 63 88 64 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 97 60 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 100 69 97 70 / 10 10 0 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 64 94 65 / 0 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 88 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 94 60 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 87 47 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 98 63 90 64 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 98 64 88 63 / 10 10 0 0
WINK TX 101 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
49/72
191
FXUS64 KMAF 200447
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AT 15-18KTS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
729
FXUS64 KMAF 200117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
817 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR EXPIRATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT IN
GAPS AND PASSES IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WHERE 20 MPH OR GREATER
WINDS WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER. SINCE WINDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
WILL NOT BE OVER 20 MPH SUSTAINED FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME, AND RH/S WILL INCREASE IN THE GUADALUPES, WILL ALLOW THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY REMAINS INTACT SINCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED. 67
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
415
FXUS64 KMAF 192255
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ONLY TO
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE FOR YESTERDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS ARE
PREVAILING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER AS THE DRYLINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK INTO ALL EXCEPT THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR GDP FOR MONDAY FROM
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS...700 MB WINDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THESE SOURCES INDICATE WEAKER WINDS AT 700 MB AND NOT MUCH MIXING
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN WIND SPEEDS FOR GDP ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH A NE WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. STARTING THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MORNING
LOWS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
70/80
252
FXUS64 KMAF 191931
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE FOR YESTERDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS ARE
PREVAILING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER AS THE DRYLINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK INTO ALL EXCEPT THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR GDP FOR MONDAY FROM
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS...700 MB WINDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THESE SOURCES INDICATE WEAKER WINDS AT 700 MB AND NOT MUCH MIXING
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN WIND SPEEDS FOR GDP ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH A NE WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. STARTING THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MORNING
LOWS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
70/80
047
FXUS64 KMAF 191741
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 19/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CAVU CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 20/18Z.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS (WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS) THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
70
184
FXUS64 KMAF 191117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
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