Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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172
FXUS64 KMAF 131716
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1116 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

Widespread MVFR cigs expected to persist today with a cold front
stalled near a CNM, PEQ, FST line. Most terminal have a NE wind and
should see FST veer to the E/NE over the next few hours. Flight
conditions are expected to deteriorate after 14/00Z with IFR/LIFR
cigs/vis persisting through Saturday morning.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 404 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

.Major storm expected to impact the region today through the
weekend with heavy rain and strong storms...

Rich Gulf moisture has spread west across the area early this
morning as a cold front also moves slowly south over the Permian
Basin. Low clouds have developed along with patchy drizzle along
and behind the front. Temperatures have fallen into the mid 30`s
across the northern Permian Basin and will continue their downward
trend through the morning given moderate CAA. This could lead to
the possibility of light freezing rain mixing in across these
locations as temperatures reach 32 degrees. Impacts are still
expected to remain minimal due to a warm ground, but there could
be a few slick spots on bridges and overpasses from Lamesa to
Snyder. Temperatures in these locations should warm above freezing
around Noon today, changing everything back into a cold rain. The
front will not make much headway today and likely stall along the
Pecos River this afternoon. North of the front, temperatures will
struggle to rise staying mainly in the 30`s and 40`s. South of
the boundary, expect another warm day with temperatures well above
normal. Isentropic lift will contribute to light rain and drizzle
today before a large storm system to our west brings more
substantial precipitation this weekend.

An intense upper low will dig south into N. Mexico today and begin
moving east Saturday. Deep southwesterly flow aloft will pull
moisture in off the Pacific while strong southeast winds bring in
Gulf moisture at the surface. The aforementioned front looks to
settle along the Pecos River for the good part of the weekend. This
boundary will act to focus shower and thunderstorm development
through the day Saturday before it begins to lift north through the
area as a warm front. Similar to this morning, temperatures will
fall to near freezing tonight and early Saturday morning over the
far northern Permian Basin. Even though temperatures may be near
freezing at the surface, a thick warm layer aloft will exist.
Precipitation falling through this layer will act to help warm the
surface so much of it may fall as just a cold rain. Will highlight
the possibility of slick spots on bridges and overpasses in the HWO.
Even though it will be another chilly day north of the front,
temperatures should be above freezing much of the day.

The upper low then begins to lift northeast early Sunday. As it does
so, large scale ascent will increase and the cold front will move
back north across the area as a warm front. The atmosphere will
become moderately unstable with MUCAPE values 500-1000 J/kg. Given
the track of the upper trough, a quasi-linear line of storms is
expected to move across the area Sunday. Damaging winds are the most
likely threat with these storms, but large hail, heavy rain, and
localized flooding will also be a possibility.

Drier conditions with near normal temperatures are expected as the
upper system lifts into the Plains early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     43  35  48  45 /  40  60  60  60
Carlsbad                       54  41  50  45 /  20  40  50  70
Dryden                         72  61  72  58 /  20  40  40  50
Fort Stockton                  68  51  62  51 /  20  40  50  50
Guadalupe Pass                 60  44  55  43 /  10  30  40  70
Hobbs                          45  35  45  40 /  20  50  60  80
Marfa                          70  41  65  41 /  10  20  30  50
Midland Intl Airport           47  37  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Odessa                         48  38  49  47 /  30  50  60  60
Wink                           55  39  52  46 /  20  40  50  70

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72

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