Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 061712

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1212 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2015

See aviation discussion below.


Main concern this forecast is potential for tstms mainly across
the w. A few storm have already developed w of CNM and sw of PEQ.
High resolution models do show isold strong storms in the CNM
area around 21z and near PEQ around 23Z and even HOB around 02Z.
There isn`t supporting evidence in NAM/GFS so reluctant to place
TEMPO groups there for now. There is better agreement after 06Z
at CNM/PEQ and 12Z FST and have opted to PROB30 groups there.
Storms will be strong, possibly severe, capable of large hail and
strong downburst winds.


NM...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ...Southern Lea County.

TX...Flash Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Marfa Plateau...Presidio
     Valley...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


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