Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 280526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

See 06Z aviation discussion below.


VFR conditions this TAF period. A trough will cause TS to develop
mainly in southeast NM Friday afternoon affecting CNM/HOB 18-00Z.
TS could develop farther south but will leave out of other TAF
sites for now.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/


Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.







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