Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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809
FXUS64 KMAF 181102
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
602 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight.  Thunderstorms
could move south into the area after 19/00Z, but did not include
any mention at area terminals due to low probability.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT SAT JUN 18 2016/

Another very hot day is in store for us this afternoon before
cooler temperatures arrive early next week. An upper ridge
continues to strengthen over NM while also shifting slowly north.
Afternoon highs yesterday reached near 110 along the Rio Grande
and Pecos Rivers, and 100 to 105 elsewhere. Little change is
expected today as mid level heights slowly rise while 850 mb
temperatures cool slightly. These factors will offset each other
and temperatures this afternoon will likely be very similar to
yesterday. The Heat Advisory worked out well yesterday along and
west of the Pecos River and will go ahead with another one today
given similar conditions. Temperatures were a little cooler across
the Permian Basin, likely due to the green-up that has occurred
from the heavy rain over the past week. An isolated storm occurred
over the Big Bend Friday, but increasing heights today should keep
any convection at bay. Models are hinting at a disturbance moving
south close to the eastern areas tonight. Will keep PoPs low and
mostly confined the the Western Low Rolling Plains for now, but
this week need to be watched.

The upper ridge is forecast to flatten out across the Plains
beginning Sunday allowing for an inverted trough to move west across
TX. Unfortunately, this won`t bring widespread precipitation, but
increased moisture will lead to cooler afternoon temperatures to
start off the new week. Highs Sunday will cool about 5 to 7 degrees
from what we will see today. By Monday and Tuesday, afternoon
temperatures may have trouble reaching 90 degrees in the mountains
and parts of the Permian Basin. We could see a little better chance
for rain these two days as the inverted trough passes by, but by
midweek the core of the upper high reasserts itself over TX. This
will bring back dry conditions and the very hot temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  70  93  69 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                      108  69  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        103  75  97  74 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Stockton                 105  71  95  70 /   0   0  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                100  72  91  69 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                         102  66  95  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          99  61  88  61 /   0   0  20   0
Midland Intl Airport          103  74  96  71 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                        103  74  95  72 /   0  10   0   0
Wink                          105  72  98  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy
     County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Big Bend Area-Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area-Guadalupe Mountains-Loving-Marfa Plateau-
     Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward.

&&

$$

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