Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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137
FXUS64 KMAF 271833 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2015

.UPDATE...
See public discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Winter Weather Advisory has expired for portions of the Permian
Basin and Southeast New Mexico. Will continue and expand the
special weather statement this afternoon through 9 pm cst this
evening for southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas for patchy
light snow, light sleet and patchy freezing fog/drizzle expected.
Lowered high temperatures several degrees this afternoon based on
latest trends.

Updated products are being sent.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR conditions will continue at the west Texas and southeast
New Mexico terminals the next 24 hours. Fog and occasional very
light snow pellets and very light freezing drizzle will continue.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Winter wx in form of SN/FZDZ are the main aviation concerns with mostly
MVFR CIGS. Winter wx mainly impacting HOB/MAF with SN/FZDZ there,
respectively. Improvement is expected by around 15-16Z with light
precip possible into the overnight. Low PoPs preclude mention in
TAFs however. Will continue MVFR CIGS through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 544 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

UPDATE...

Issued update to expand the Winter Weather Advisory to include
central and southern portions of the Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...

Freezing drizzle is occurring in Midland, so the Winter Weather
Advisory has been expanded to include central and southern portions
of the Permian Basin.  Freezing fog is also possible across this
area due to the low dew point depressions.  Freezing drizzle and
freezing fog have been added to the forecast grids for this morning
to reflect these changes.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Light to moderate snow is currently falling across southeast New
Mexico, northern and central portions of the Permian Basin, and the
Western Low Rolling Plains.  The snow is expected to shift eastward
today and will primarily affect the northeastern Permian Basin and
Western Low Rolling Plains by this afternoon.  Along and south of
the Pecos River, any precipitation that falls may be a mixture of
snow, sleet, and rain.  Temperatures are well below freezing and
will not get above freezing across most of the Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico this afternoon.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for high winds through Guadalupe Pass and will expire at 8 am
MST today.  A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through this
morning for the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico, and the
northern Permian Basin.  Total snowfall amounts in this area can be
expected to be around 1 to 4 inches.  Patchy fog is also possible
this morning mainly in the Guadalupe Mountains.

The wintry precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday
with the best chances being across the Western Low Rolling Plains
and the eastern Permian Basin.  High temperatures on Saturday will
warm up into the 40s and 50s across much of the area so
precipitation will transition over to rain as afternoon approaches.
Do not expect much in the way of snow accumulations on Saturday.

An upper trough will begin developing just off the coast of
California over the weekend with the upper flow becoming westerly to
southwesterly.  Temperatures on Sunday are expected to warm up to
near normal values as surface winds become southerly and the clouds
decrease in coverage.  There is a slight chance of rain across the
very far eastern CWA.  On Monday, the upper trough will move closer
to the region increasing upper lift over the area.  Showers with an
isolated thunderstorm may develop Monday afternoon as a result of
the increase in lift.  High temperatures on Monday are not expected
to be quite as warm due to an increase in cloud cover.  Temperatures
will warm slightly on Tuesday with a slight chance of rain across
the Guadalupe Mountains and portions of Eddy and Lea Counties as the
upper trough gets closer to the region.  The upper trough will begin
passing over the area on Wednesday with the models keeping most of
the precipitation north of the CWA.  The models are showing a cold
front associated with the upper trough moving into the area either
on Wednesday or Thursday.  Temperatures are expected to cool to
below normal by Thursday behind the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 24  46  39  64  /  30  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              24  44  40  63  /  30  30  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                25  53  35  68  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  35  51  44  70  /  20  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           31  61  44  72  /  20  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          23  54  39  66  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   23  46  35  64  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   23  60  32  72  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    25  47  41  65  /  30  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  25  50  41  65  /  30  20  10   0
WINK TX                    28  54  40  70  /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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