828
FXUS64 KMAF 112331
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS
AROUND HOB...CNM AND POSSIBLY INK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE WINDS TO
GUST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR A BRIEF TIME BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AGAIN. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING BUT
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT SAT MAY 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SATL IMAGERY AS WELL AS KMAF RADAR IS INDC A POSITIVELY TILTED
TROF STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST
TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING
SOUTHWEST OUT OF NORTH TEXAS INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND THE WESTERN TRANS PECOS.
OF POTENTIALLY GREATER IMPACT ARE THE STORMS FIRING UP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN MEXICO THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
INTO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHERN STOCKTON PLATEAU. HAVE
NOT MENTIONED SEVERE...BUT THERE MIGHT BE ENOUGH BULK SHEAR (THE
BEST BULK SHEAR IS IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS) FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT HAIL.
THE UPPER TROF WILL SHEAR APART WITH A WEAK CUTOFF LOW RETROGRADING
TO CENTRAL BAJA. HAVE TONED DOWN THE POPS FOR SUNDAY FOR THE
DAVIS...GLASS...CHINATI...AND CHISOS MOUNTAINS. THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS OVER CENTRAL BAJA FOR MONDAY AS WELL...SO WENT WITH
SIMILAR POPS.
AN EASTERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL KICK THE UPPER LOW NORTHEAST
THROUGH WEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE TRANS PECOS
SOUTH. POPS MIGHT NEED TO BE ADJUSTED SOME DEPENDING ON THE PATH
OF THE UPPER LOW IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
IT WILL DEFINITELY FEEL LIKE SUMMER STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AS
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES WITH
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROFFING. THIS WILL BRING A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY
FLOW...AND WITH H85 TEMPS BUMPING 30C THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD 90S
WITH TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE DRY LINE WILL BE EAST OF THE
CWA SO HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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