Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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146
FXUS64 KMAF 050442
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will still be possible at KMAF, and perhaps KHOB
and KINK, through 05/08Z.  Thereafter, think convection will be
north and east of area terminals.  MVFR ceilings are expected to
affect all area terminals overnight, with some IFR ceilings at
KHOB.  Southerly winds will veer late tonight, become
southwesterly in the morning, and aid in lifting ceilings to VFR
while they scatter out, especially from 05/15Z and after.  Initial
indications are that thunderstorms will affect locations mainly
east of KMAF Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT Mon May 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

  * Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128 remains in effect until 8 pm
    CDT/7 pm MDT for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New
    Mexico and Culberson and Jeff Davis counties in west Texas.

  * Tornado Watch 129 remains in effect until 8 pm CDT for
    Brewster,Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell, Ward, and
    Winkler counties.

 *  A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect until 7 am CDT/6 am MDT
    for Eddy and Lea counties in southeastern New Mexico and for
    Andrews, Borden, Dawson, and Gaines counties in west Texas.

Little time for discussion owing to impending heavy rainfall/flash
flooding and convective weather threats. CAMs have suggested for
several runs now that a storm (now apparently over northern Jeff Davis
county) will translate east and then begin to turn to the right as
effective shears increase to above 50 kts. Along and south of the
Pecos, there`s enough phasing between instability, CAPE, and shear
to promote discrete supercellular structures until at least 01Z.
If there`s enough balance between SR inflow and a supercell`s
rear flank downdraft, a tornado or three is not out of the
question.

Farther north, multicellular structures are apparent now and we
should see further upscale growth into a west-east trending MCS by
sunset. With increasing moisture (DRT showed +2SD precip water
values this morning) and a strengthening low level jet, a good supply
of moisture will feed these storms. Aloft, a 110 kt+ jet streak
translating eastward across northern Mexico will become difluent
(with one "f") over eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle.
Deep layer vertical motion profiles will further support deep
layer lift and efficient rain producers. As such, the flash flood
watch has been extended east to cover areas where forecast
rainfall more than 2" (isolated > 4") are possible tonight.

Should see a bit of a break tomorrow under subsidence in the wake
of the MCS. Low level moisture will be slow to move east, and as
soon as sig insolation can be realized, more convective overturning
is forecast, particularly near the mountains tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

High temperatures will stay close to normal through the week while
lows will be somewhat warmer than normal due to higher low level
moisture content. The best chances for thunderstorms will be across
the eastern Permian Basin/lower Trans Pecos each afternoon and
evening; however, wouldn`t`t be surprised to see PoPs increase
nearer to the mountains as well.

With a focus on the meso-alpha scale today, little changes were
made to the forecast Day 3 and have stayed close to the NAM12 in
the Day 1-3 periods. We did shift PoPs east a bit to marry up
better with HPC guidance.

For graphics on excessive rainfall forecasts from the Weather
Prediction Center, go to http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94ewbg.gif
and for text http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatchmpd.php

Users can subscribe to the Storm Prediction Center`s Twitter feed
using @NWSSPC for latest in Mesoscale Convective Discussions and Watch
Status messages.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Tuesday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Dawson...Gaines.


&&

$$

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