Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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140
FXUS64 KMAF 041929
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
229 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday...the name of the game for
the foreseeable future will be the heat.

The ridge centered over the Arizona/New Mexico border will shift
east over the next couple of days. As the ridge moves overhead it
will for the most part quash any convection due to subsidence.
Other than a few storms over the mtns this aftn/evening and again
Wed aftn it will be dry and hot. Looks like the ridge will remain
centered over the Southern Plains for the next 10 days. The GFS
ensemble forecasts keeps the ridge anchored over the area for the
next 16 days (384 hours)! So...if you like hot weather you will
enjoy the next couple of weeks.

With H85 temps fcst to remain near 30C for the next week expect
widespread 100+ temps across the Plains...80s/90s over the
mtns...and 105-110 along the Pecos and Rio Grande River Valleys.
Temps could reach near record high temps. Did think about a heat
advisory but temps are forecast to remain below the new criteria.

Strobin

&&

.CLIMATE...Forecast high temperatures with records in parenthesis.

Location          August 5    August 6    August 7   August 8
--------          --------    --------    --------   --------
Midland Intl AP   103 (104)   104 (107)   103 (104)  103 (104)
Odessa            102 (104)   103 (103)   102 (108)  102 (105)
Pecos             107 (111)   107 (109)   107 (110)  106 (111)
Fort Stockton     102 (107)   103 (103)   102 (105)  102 (105)
Presidio          107 (110)   108 (109)   106 (110)  106 (114)
Carlsbad          104 (105)   105 (104)   104 (106)  102 (106)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  76 102  77 103  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    71 104  71 105  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      78 104  78 105  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               74 102  74 103  /  20  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              72  97  72  97  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                       70 101  71 101  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       61  94  62  97  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        76 103  76 104  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      76 102  77 103  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        75 106  76 107  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/33
723
FXUS64 KMAF 041654
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. Thunderstorms should remain
west of the the terminals in the mountains.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued /

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. Showers and storms
will develop across the higher terrain later today. The best
coverage will be south of I-20 and may include KFST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms that formed last night in SE New Mexico and the Upper
Trans Pecos and moved across the Permian Basin have dissipated for
the most part.  A few lingering remain in Presidio County and
continue into the morning hours.  Coverage of rain chances will be
less today than they were yesterday, but may still see some isolated
showers and thunderstorms with a theta-e axis over the Permian
Basin.  The best chance rain chances will be in the Davis Mountains
where there is better theta-e air and orographic lift will provide
support for thunderstorms.  Precipitable Water values of 1.0 to 1.5
inches will mean heavy rain may accompany any thunderstorms causing
localized flooding.  After today, the ridge begins to strengthen and
rain chances will quickly exit the majority of the area except for
the Davis Mountains where a few isolated showers may be possible
again tomorrow.

The rain that moved the through area should keep temperatures a
degree or two cooler today, but things will quickly heat up by
midweek.  Beginning Wednesday temperatures will climb back into the
100s for many locations as 850mb temps increase.  Rain chances will
also be hard to come by.  Thursday looks to be the hottest day of
the week with potential to be the hottest day of the year thus far
for Midland. If you are not a fan of 100 degree temperatures, the
rest of the week doesn`t look good.  Triple digit temps look to
stick around through Sunday. Similar story into early next week with
the persistent upper ridge centered over West Texas and eastern New
Mexico.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
960
FXUS64 KMAF 041107
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. Showers and storms
will develop across the higher terrain later today. The best
coverage will be south of I-20 and may include KFST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms that formed last night in SE New Mexico and the Upper
Trans Pecos and moved across the Permian Basin have dissipated for
the most part.  A few lingering remain in Presidio County and
continue into the morning hours.  Coverage of rain chances will be
less today than they were yesterday, but may still see some isolated
showers and thunderstorms with a theta-e axis over the Permian
Basin.  The best chance rain chances will be in the Davis Mountains
where there is better theta-e air and orographic lift will provide
support for thunderstorms.  Precipitable Water values of 1.0 to 1.5
inches will mean heavy rain may accompany any thunderstorms causing
localized flooding.  After today, the ridge begins to strengthen and
rain chances will quickly exit the majority of the area except for
the Davis Mountains where a few isolated showers may be possible
again tomorrow.

The rain that moved the through area should keep temperatures a
degree or two cooler today, but things will quickly heat up by
midweek.  Beginning Wednesday temperatures will climb back into the
100s for many locations as 850mb temps increase.  Rain chances will
also be hard to come by.  Thursday looks to be the hottest day of
the week with potential to be the hottest day of the year thus far
for Midland. If you are not a fan of 100 degree temperatures, the
rest of the week doesn`t look good.  Triple digit temps look to
stick around through Sunday. Similar story into early next week with
the persistent upper ridge centered over West Texas and eastern New
Mexico.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
772
FXUS64 KMAF 040945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
445 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms that formed last night in SE New Mexico and the Upper
Trans Pecos and moved across the Permian Basin have dissipated for
the most part.  A few lingering remain in Presidio County and
continue into the morning hours.  Coverage of rain chances will be
less today than they were yesterday, but may still see some isolated
showers and thunderstorms with a theta-e axis over the Permian
Basin.  The best chance rain chances will be in the Davis Mountains
where there is better theta-e air and orographic lift will provide
support for thunderstorms.  Precipitable Water values of 1.0 to 1.5
inches will mean heavy rain may accompany any thunderstorms causing
localized flooding.  After today, the ridge begins to strengthen and
rain chances will quickly exit the majority of the area except for
the Davis Mountains where a few isolated showers may be possible
again tomorrow.

The rain that moved the through area should keep temperatures a
degree or two cooler today, but things will quickly heat up by
midweek.  Beginning Wednesday temperatures will climb back into the
100s for many locations as 850mb temps increase.  Rain chances will
also be hard to come by.  Thursday looks to be the hottest day of
the week with potential to be the hottest day of the year thus far
for Midland. If you are not a fan of 100 degree temperatures, the
rest of the week doesn`t look good.  Triple digit temps look to
stick around through Sunday. Similar story into early next week with
the persistent upper ridge centered over West Texas and eastern New
Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  74  99  75  /  20  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                   101  71 104  71  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     101  77 102  76  /  20  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  73 100  73  /  40  20  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              90  70  94  70  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                       98  70 100  69  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       89  61  93  61  /  40  30  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  75 102  75  /  20  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                     100  76 101  76  /  20  10   0   0
WINK TX                       103  76 104  75  /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/06
483
FXUS64 KMAF 040523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
A band of showers and thunderstorms will continue across the
Permian Basin for the next few hours before dissipating. This may
create some gusty winds at KMAF through 09Z. VFR conditions will
persist through Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
177
FXUS64 KMAF 032351
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
651 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered storms will continue over SE NM... Upper Trans Pecos...
and Western Permian Basin through 06z. Have included mention of
storms in all TAFs. MVFR cigs possible under locally heavy rain
with wind gusts of 40kts or greater.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 147 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common across southeast
New Mexico and the higher terrain of west Texas through this
evening, if not overnight as a plume of mid and upper level
moisture continues to spread over the region around/under a
somewhat weakened ua ridge.  Morning showers and storms over the
Permian basin have waned, but another round of convection has
begun to develop over the higher terrain of west Texas under the
said plume of moisture, and expect the same over SE NM in the next
few hours.  Due to good heating and a dry subcloud layer, gusty
winds will be possible with the stronger storms, but also heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding due to PWats ramping up to
near 1.5 inches.  Expect this higher mid level theta e air to
push southward Tuesday, so will continue the trend of higher PoPs
over the southern half or so of the CWA then.  Clouds/precipitation
will likely keep high temperatures down a degree or two today and
Tuesday in most locations, if not several degrees in areas
receiving heavy rainfall.

From Wednesday through next weekend, it appears rain chances will be
at a premium while hot temperatures will be common.  This as the ua
ridge strengthens over the region and moisture becomes more scarce
through the atmospheric column.  Think high temperatures will reach/
exceed 100 degrees over most locations outside the mountains
Wednesday, then stay that way through at least Sunday.  A few record
high temperatures may be challenged also, especially Wednesday
through Friday. Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
033
FXUS64 KMAF 031847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
147 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be common across southeast
New Mexico and the higher terrain of west Texas through this
evening, if not overnight as a plume of mid and upper level
moisture continues to spread over the region around/under a
somewhat weakened ua ridge.  Morning showers and storms over the
Permian basin have waned, but another round of convection has
begun to develop over the higher terrain of west Texas under the
said plume of moisture, and expect the same over SE NM in the next
few hours.  Due to good heating and a dry subcloud layer, gusty
winds will be possible with the stronger storms, but also heavy
rainfall and localized flash flooding due to PWats ramping up to
near 1.5 inches.  Expect this higher mid level theta e air to
push southward Tuesday, so will continue the trend of higher PoPs
over the southern half or so of the CWA then.  Clouds/precipitation
will likely keep high temperatures down a degree or two today and
Tuesday in most locations, if not several degrees in areas
receiving heavy rainfall.

From Wednesday through next weekend, it appears rain chances will be
at a premium while hot temperatures will be common.  This as the ua
ridge strengthens over the region and moisture becomes more scarce
through the atmospheric column.  Think high temperatures will reach/
exceed 100 degrees over most locations outside the mountains
Wednesday, then stay that way through at least Sunday.  A few record
high temperatures may be challenged also, especially Wednesday
through Friday. Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  77  97  75 101  /  40  20  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                    73 100  72 104  /  40  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  77 103  /  10  20  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               76  96  75 101  /  30  40  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  90  71  96  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       72  97  70  99  /  40  10  10   0
MARFA TX                       63  89  64  93  /  30  40  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        75  97  75 103  /  40  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                      76  97  76 102  /  40  20  10   0
WINK TX                        76 101  76 105  /  50  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/67
000
FXUS64 KMAF 031709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Another upper
level disturbance will bring another round of thunderstorms to
west Texas and southeast New Mexico this afternoon and tonight.
Confidence was high enough to include mention of TEMPO VFR
conditions in thunderstorms at the majority of the terminals this
afternoon and this evening. More thunderstorms are possible after
midnight tonight through 12z Tuesday so inserted PROB30 groups at
a majority of the terminals.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today, although mid level
clouds around 8-10kft to 15kft AGL will be fairly common. Have
included TSRA at KCNM and KHOB, but TSRA may need to be added to
the other area terminals for late this afternoon/evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RICH MID LEVEL MOIST AXIS IS MOVING E TODAY AND BY 00Z/TUE WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO THE GDP MTNS. THE COMBINATION OF NW
FLOW ALOFT (ALBEIT WEAK) AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH (SEEN IN 5H
HEIGHT/VORTICITY) CO-LOCATED WITH SAID MOIST AXIS FAVORS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITHIN AND INVOF OF SAID FEATURES, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
18Z. MOS GUIDANCE (MORESO MET) IS SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE TYPE POPS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT/TUE MORNING FROM DAVIS/GDP MTNS-SE NM-PB. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS, INCLUDING MENTION OF LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN (PER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW) AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WHICH WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS FROM GDP MTNS-SE
NM. SAID MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL SAG SOUTH INTO TUE AND CHANCE POPS
WILL ALSO FOCUS FARTHER S, GENERALLY DAVIS MTNS-LOWER TRANS PECOS-
SRN PB. CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL MAKE TEMP FORECAST DIFFICULT, BUT
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED. IF NOTHING ELSE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS/PRECIP COOLED AIR/OUTFLOW HELP TO TAKE
EDGE OF ON UNSEASONABLY HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPS. BY WED HIGH TEMPS
RAPIDLY RETURN TO UNCOMFORTABLY HOT CATEGORY AND WILL EASILY PERSIST
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH 7H TEMPS OF 15-17C (+1 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS) UNDERNEATH SUPPRESSING PRESENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM WED THRU WEEKEND WILL BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
805
FXUS64 KMAF 031051
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today, although mid level
clouds around 8-10kft to 15kft AGL will be fairly common. Have
included TSRA at KCNM and KHOB, but TSRA may need to be added to
the other area terminals for late this afternoon/evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RICH MID LEVEL MOIST AXIS IS MOVING E TODAY AND BY 00Z/TUE WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO THE GDP MTNS. THE COMBINATION OF NW
FLOW ALOFT (ALBEIT WEAK) AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH (SEEN IN 5H
HEIGHT/VORTICITY) CO-LOCATED WITH SAID MOIST AXIS FAVORS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITHIN AND INVOF OF SAID FEATURES, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
18Z. MOS GUIDANCE (MORESO MET) IS SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE TYPE POPS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT/TUE MORNING FROM DAVIS/GDP MTNS-SE NM-PB. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS, INCLUDING MENTION OF LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN (PER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW) AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WHICH WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS FROM GDP MTNS-SE
NM. SAID MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL SAG SOUTH INTO TUE AND CHANCE POPS
WILL ALSO FOCUS FARTHER S, GENERALLY DAVIS MTNS-LOWER TRANS PECOS-
SRN PB. CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL MAKE TEMP FORECAST DIFFICULT, BUT
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED. IF NOTHING ELSE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS/PRECIP COOLED AIR/OUTFLOW HELP TO TAKE
EDGE OF ON UNSEASONABLY HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPS. BY WED HIGH TEMPS
RAPIDLY RETURN TO UNCOMFORTABLY HOT CATEGORY AND WILL EASILY PERSIST
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH 7H TEMPS OF 15-17C (+1 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS) UNDERNEATH SUPPRESSING PRESENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM WED THRU WEEKEND WILL BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  75  97  76  /  10  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  99  72  /  40  40  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  75 100  77  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              100  74  98  75  /  10  20  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  69  91  72  /  50  40  20  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  96  70  /  30  40  10  10
MARFA TX                       90  63  88  63  /  40  20  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        98  74  99  75  /  10  30  20  10
ODESSA TX                      97  75  99  76  /  10  30  20  10
WINK TX                       101  75 101  76  /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
949
FXUS64 KMAF 030820
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A RICH MID LEVEL MOIST AXIS IS MOVING E TODAY AND BY 00Z/TUE WILL BE
ORIENTED FROM NEAR CHILDRESS TO THE GDP MTNS. THE COMBINATION OF NW
FLOW ALOFT (ALBEIT WEAK) AND WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH (SEEN IN 5H
HEIGHT/VORTICITY) CO-LOCATED WITH SAID MOIST AXIS FAVORS CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WITHIN AND INVOF OF SAID FEATURES, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
18Z. MOS GUIDANCE (MORESO MET) IS SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE TYPE POPS
INTO THE OVERNIGHT/TUE MORNING FROM DAVIS/GDP MTNS-SE NM-PB. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS, INCLUDING MENTION OF LOCAL HEAVY
RAIN (PER ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW) AND WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
WHICH WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN IN GRIDS FROM GDP MTNS-SE
NM. SAID MID LEVEL FEATURES WILL SAG SOUTH INTO TUE AND CHANCE POPS
WILL ALSO FOCUS FARTHER S, GENERALLY DAVIS MTNS-LOWER TRANS PECOS-
SRN PB. CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES WILL MAKE TEMP FORECAST DIFFICULT, BUT
WITH INCREASED CLOUDS TEMPS WILL BE SUPPRESSED. IF NOTHING ELSE HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE BRIEF AS CLOUDS/PRECIP COOLED AIR/OUTFLOW HELP TO TAKE
EDGE OF ON UNSEASONABLY HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPS. BY WED HIGH TEMPS
RAPIDLY RETURN TO UNCOMFORTABLY HOT CATEGORY AND WILL EASILY PERSIST
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH 7H TEMPS OF 15-17C (+1 TO +3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS) UNDERNEATH SUPPRESSING PRESENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM WED THRU WEEKEND WILL BE
OF LITTLE CONSEQUENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  75  97  76  /  10  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  99  72  /  40  40  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  75 100  77  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX              100  74  98  75  /  10  20  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  69  91  72  /  50  40  20  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  96  70  /  30  40  10  10
MARFA TX                       90  63  88  63  /  40  20  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        98  74  99  75  /  10  30  20  10
ODESSA TX                      97  75  99  76  /  10  30  20  10
WINK TX                       101  75 101  76  /  30  40  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
689
FXUS64 KMAF 030537
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1237 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Most convection has died out except a little near CNM and MAF.
Overall will be VFR with a prevailing S to SE wind with a low
chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will continue the next few days as a somewhat
weakened ua ridge remains over the region.  A plume of mid level
moisture/higher theta e air was near the AZ/NM stateline this
afternoon, but will shift eastward and end up over the southern
CWA Tuesday before being shunted southwestward over Mexico mid to
late next week.  The most favorable location for thunderstorms
today/tonight will be over SE NM and the higher terrain of west
Texas where the highest theta e currently resides.  The low
shear, but modest SBCAPE, environment will yield more storms
capable of gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall through this evening, with storms dwindling
overnight.

On Monday, the mentioned mid level theta e axis will spread over SE
NM and the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, so will continue with chance
PoPs there through the afternoon.  Despite weak flow aloft, outflow
winds from thunderstorms may aid storms developing farther east over
the Permian Basin Monday evening, so will continue the previous
shift`s trend of increased PoPs there.  PWats will rise to around
1.5 inches, or 1-2S.D above normal.  This along with mostly slow
moving thunderstorms will increase heavy rainfall potential and
localized flash flooding.  It doesn`t appear heavy rainfall will
be widespread enough for a Flash Flood Watch, but will monitor for
issuance and beef up wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  A
chance of thunderstorms over the southern half or so of the
forecast area looks good Tuesday, but rain chances will be
negligible from Wednesday into next weekend as the ua ridge
strengthens over the region.  As far as temperatures are
concerned, readings may be held at bay over portions of the area
today, Monday and Tuesday due to clouds and rainfall, but will
still likely be above normal during this time.  From Wednesday
into next weekend, above normal temperatures, and perhaps some
record high temperatures, will be the rule.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
827
FXUS64 KMAF 022358
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
658 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered thunderstorms will continue into the evening across SE
NM... the Trans Pecos... and Northern Permian Basin. Wind gusts to
45 kts possible with these storms and MVFR vsbys due to brief
heavy rain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will continue the next few days as a somewhat
weakened ua ridge remains over the region.  A plume of mid level
moisture/higher theta e air was near the AZ/NM stateline this
afternoon, but will shift eastward and end up over the southern
CWA Tuesday before being shunted southwestward over Mexico mid to
late next week.  The most favorable location for thunderstorms
today/tonight will be over SE NM and the higher terrain of west
Texas where the highest theta e currently resides.  The low
shear, but modest SBCAPE, environment will yield more storms
capable of gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall through this evening, with storms dwindling
overnight.

On Monday, the mentioned mid level theta e axis will spread over SE
NM and the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, so will continue with chance
PoPs there through the afternoon.  Despite weak flow aloft, outflow
winds from thunderstorms may aid storms developing farther east over
the Permian Basin Monday evening, so will continue the previous
shift`s trend of increased PoPs there.  PWats will rise to around
1.5 inches, or 1-2S.D above normal.  This along with mostly slow
moving thunderstorms will increase heavy rainfall potential and
localized flash flooding.  It doesn`t appear heavy rainfall will
be widespread enough for a Flash Flood Watch, but will monitor for
issuance and beef up wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  A
chance of thunderstorms over the southern half or so of the
forecast area looks good Tuesday, but rain chances will be
negligible from Wednesday into next weekend as the ua ridge
strengthens over the region.  As far as temperatures are
concerned, readings may be held at bay over portions of the area
today, Monday and Tuesday due to clouds and rainfall, but will
still likely be above normal during this time.  From Wednesday
into next weekend, above normal temperatures, and perhaps some
record high temperatures, will be the rule.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
320
FXUS64 KMAF 021849
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Rain chances will continue the next few days as a somewhat
weakened ua ridge remains over the region.  A plume of mid level
moisture/higher theta e air was near the AZ/NM stateline this
afternoon, but will shift eastward and end up over the southern
CWA Tuesday before being shunted southwestward over Mexico mid to
late next week.  The most favorable location for thunderstorms
today/tonight will be over SE NM and the higher terrain of west
Texas where the highest theta e currently resides.  The low
shear, but modest SBCAPE, environment will yield more storms
capable of gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and
locally heavy rainfall through this evening, with storms dwindling
overnight.

On Monday, the mentioned mid level theta e axis will spread over SE
NM and the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains, so will continue with chance
PoPs there through the afternoon.  Despite weak flow aloft, outflow
winds from thunderstorms may aid storms developing farther east over
the Permian Basin Monday evening, so will continue the previous
shift`s trend of increased PoPs there.  PWats will rise to around
1.5 inches, or 1-2S.D above normal.  This along with mostly slow
moving thunderstorms will increase heavy rainfall potential and
localized flash flooding.  It doesn`t appear heavy rainfall will
be widespread enough for a Flash Flood Watch, but will monitor for
issuance and beef up wording in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  A
chance of thunderstorms over the southern half or so of the
forecast area looks good Tuesday, but rain chances will be
negligible from Wednesday into next weekend as the ua ridge
strengthens over the region.  As far as temperatures are
concerned, readings may be held at bay over portions of the area
today, Monday and Tuesday due to clouds and rainfall, but will
still likely be above normal during this time.  From Wednesday
into next weekend, above normal temperatures, and perhaps some
record high temperatures, will be the rule.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  98  75  97  /  20  10  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                    71  99  71 100  /  30  40  40  10
DRYDEN TX                      74 102  75 100  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               75  98  74  98  /  10  10  10  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  89  68  92  /  30  40  40  20
HOBBS NM                       69  94  69  96  /  30  30  40  10
MARFA TX                       60  88  62  88  /  30  40  10  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  99  74 100  /  20  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                      73  98  75 100  /  20  10  30  20
WINK TX                        75 101  75 102  /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/67
942
FXUS64 KMAF 021547
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1047 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under
upper-lvl ridging. Forecast soundings develop a widespread 4-5 kft
agl cu field early this afternoon, and a 4-8 kft agl cu field near
the end of the fcst pd. Convection will be possible this afternoon
and overnight, mainly SE NM under the theta-e ridge axis.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z deterministic models initialized the center of subtropical high
from SW of KELP to Davis Mtns region. Satellite more or less
confirms this with definitive monsoonal circulation noted - a
moisture rich and active theta-e ridge axis from Mexico into the 4
Corners Region with weak NW mid level flow across ern NM Plains and
S Plains. The wx forecast/pattern over the next few days will be
focused around these said features and their movement east (theta-e
ridge) and redevelopment w (subtropical ridge). Today slight
chance/chance PoPs will be mostly confined to the Trans Pecos and SE
NM, possibly a shower in the e. Caveat for today is this morning`s
outflow boundary that may be a focus across the PB. More interesting
is the wx on Monday when there will likely be an increase in coverage
of storms from Van Horn/GDP Mtns/SE NM before 00Z/Tue and into PB
after 00Z/Tue. Precipitable water will be +1 to +2 standard deviations
suggesting heavy rain will be a concern. Said storms will likely push
out an outflow boundary and thereby increasing potential for storms
across PB. As such will start to trend PoPs up. On Tue the theta-e
ridge axis will be across the heart of the CWFA from wsw-ene. Mid
level flow will likely still be NW and the best PoPs will be from
Davis Mtns into srn PB. We expect it to be hotter today than
yesterday across most areas, exception will be parts of Lea/Gaines
Co where precip has fallen early this morning. Optimistically, we
expect that increased clouds/precip will hold temps in check Mon
across Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and if the rain is indeed widespread
enough temps may be suppressed some even into Tue. From Wed onward
it will be all about the heat as the subtropical ridge moves e and
builds across the CWFA resulting in a prolonged period of triple
digit heat across the plains with records possible.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
813
FXUS64 KMAF 021112
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours,
except for temporary MVFR visibility at KCNM with any TSRA after
02/21Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...
00Z deterministic models initialized the center of subtropical high
from SW of KELP to Davis Mtns region. Satellite more or less
confirms this with definitive monsoonal circulation noted - a
moisture rich and active theta-e ridge axis from Mexico into the 4
Corners Region with weak NW mid level flow across ern NM Plains and
S Plains. The wx forecast/pattern over the next few days will be
focused around these said features and their movement east (theta-e
ridge) and redevelopment w (subtropical ridge). Today slight
chance/chance PoPs will be mostly confined to the Trans Pecos and SE
NM, possibly a shower in the e. Caveat for today is this morning`s
outflow boundary that may be a focus across the PB. More interesting
is the wx on Monday when there will likely be an increase in coverage
of storms from Van Horn/GDP Mtns/SE NM before 00Z/Tue and into PB
after 00Z/Tue. Precipitable water will be +1 to +2 standard deviations
suggesting heavy rain will be a concern. Said storms will likely push
out an outflow boundary and thereby increasing potential for storms
across PB. As such will start to trend PoPs up. On Tue the theta-e
ridge axis will be across the heart of the CWFA from wsw-ene. Mid
level flow will likely still be NW and the best PoPs will be from
Davis Mtns into srn PB. We expect it to be hotter today than
yesterday across most areas, exception will be parts of Lea/Gaines
Co where precip has fallen early this morning. Optimistically, we
expect that increased clouds/precip will hold temps in check Mon
across Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and if the rain is indeed widespread
enough temps may be suppressed some even into Tue. From Wed onward
it will be all about the heat as the subtropical ridge moves e and
builds across the CWFA resulting in a prolonged period of triple
digit heat across the plains with records possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  74  98  75  /  20  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                    99  73  97  72  /  20  20  40  50
DRYDEN TX                     100  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              91  70  88  69  /  20  20  40  50
HOBBS NM                       95  70  97  70  /  10  10  30  40
MARFA TX                       91  65  91  65  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      99  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                       103  76 102  75  /  10  10  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
134
FXUS64 KMAF 020824
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
324 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
00Z deterministic models initialized the center of subtropical high
from SW of KELP to Davis Mtns region. Satellite more or less
confirms this with definitive monsoonal circulation noted - a
moisture rich and active theta-e ridge axis from Mexico into the 4
Corners Region with weak NW mid level flow across ern NM Plains and
S Plains. The wx forecast/pattern over the next few days will be
focused around these said features and their movement east (theta-e
ridge) and redevelopment w (subtropical ridge). Today slight
chance/chance PoPs will be mostly confined to the Trans Pecos and SE
NM, possibly a shower in the e. Caveat for today is this morning`s
outflow boundary that may be a focus across the PB. More interesting
is the wx on Monday when there will likely be an increase in coverage
of storms from Van Horn/GDP Mtns/SE NM before 00Z/Tue and into PB
after 00Z/Tue. Precipitable water will be +1 to +2 standard deviations
suggesting heavy rain will be a concern. Said storms will likely push
out an outflow boundary and thereby increasing potential for storms
across PB. As such will start to trend PoPs up. On Tue the theta-e
ridge axis will be across the heart of the CWFA from wsw-ene. Mid
level flow will likely still be NW and the best PoPs will be from
Davis Mtns into srn PB. We expect it to be hotter today than
yesterday across most areas, exception will be parts of Lea/Gaines
Co where precip has fallen early this morning. Optimistically, we
expect that increased clouds/precip will hold temps in check Mon
across Upper Trans Pecos/SE NM and if the rain is indeed widespread
enough temps may be suppressed some even into Tue. From Wed onward
it will be all about the heat as the subtropical ridge moves e and
builds across the CWFA resulting in a prolonged period of triple
digit heat across the plains with records possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  74  98  75  /  20  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                    99  73  97  72  /  20  20  40  50
DRYDEN TX                     100  75 100  75  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              91  70  88  69  /  20  20  40  50
HOBBS NM                       95  70  97  70  /  10  10  30  40
MARFA TX                       91  65  91  65  /  30  30  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  74  99  74  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      99  75  99  75  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                       103  76 102  75  /  10  10  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
581
FXUS64 KMAF 020539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
At 05Z, convection was moving out of extreme southeast New Mexico
into the northwest Permian Basin with trailing stratiform
precipitation extending west of HOB. Occasional thunder and gusty
winds are possible near HOB through 08Z along with occasional
MVFR conditions due to low ceilings. Light rain is possiblenearly
as far west as CNM.

Other than HOB, area terminals will see VFR conditions through the
next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
across southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas, particularly near
the mountains Sunday afternoon and evening, though probabilities
are presently not significant enough for inclusion in area TAFs.
Thunderstorms will be more likely at HOB and CNM. Except near
convection, winds will generally be south to southwest at less
than 12 knots through Sunday evening with gusts approaching 20
knots Sunday afternoon and early evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05
212
FXUS64 KMAF 020207 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
907 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
Trimming rain chances across most of area. Continuing chance of
rain mainly southeast New Mexico into the northern Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
With loss of daytime heating, most shower and thunderstorm
activity across southwest Texas is dissipating. Modest low level
jet beginning to kick in. Short term models suggest that some elevated
instability will also persist over southeast New Mexico and
northern Permian basin for the next few hours. Low level jet and
elevated instability should allow convection to continue and
possibly expand from southeast New Mexico into the northern
Permian basin through late evening. With very little shear, area
of storms should move slowly eastward. Slow movement suggests
locally heavy rain is possible, especially in parts of southern
Lea County where some training appears to be starting along
outflowboundary from earlier convection.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Several thunderstorm
outflow boundaries are currently generating more widely scattered
thunderstorms across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Based on
latest radar trends confidence was not high enough to mention
thunderstorms at the majority of the terminals. Will mention
however TEMPO MVFR conditions for storms at KHOB through 08z due
to current radar trends and an upper level disturbance that is
expected to impact that terminal for the majority of the night.
More thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico and will address in next package.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Convection is starting
to develop over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent Plains.
KMAF radar is showing a boundary over the Permian Basin...and high
resolution models are depicting convection forming along the
boundary this aftn/evening.

Models are hinting at more convection tonight and Sunday...
especially over the Mtns and Northern PB as the ridge remains
centered in AZ/NM and slightly weakens allowing weak shortwaves
move across.

The ridge will edge further east and strengthen in response to a
trough moving to the West Coast. Convection will be confined
mainly to the mountains by Tuesday.

Beginning Wed and continuing into next weekend the ridge will be
centered over the Southern Plains. It looks like the increased
subsidence will inhibit convection...even over the mountains.

The bigger news will be the very hot temps. With H85 temps
between 30-31C (ECMWF) and 30-34C (GFS) there will be widespread
triple digit heat across the Plains next week. It looks like the
hottest days will be Wednesday thru Friday with 105-110 possible
in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  98  74  99  /  10  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                    71  97  73  98  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74 100  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  99  74 101  /  10  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  91  69  90  /  10  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       70  96  72  96  /  30  10  20  20
MARFA TX                       61  91  62  91  /  10  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  99  74 100  /  10  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      73  99  75 100  /  10  20  10  10
WINK TX                        75 103  76 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/05
608
FXUS64 KMAF 012321
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Several thunderstorm
outflow boundaries are currently generating more widely scattered
thunderstorms across west Texas and southeast New Mexico. Based on
latest radar trends confidence was not high enough to mention
thunderstorms at the majority of the terminals. Will mention
however TEMPO MVFR conditions for storms at KHOB through 08z due
to current radar trends and an upper level disturbance that is
expected to impact that terminal for the majority of the night.
More thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon across west Texas
and southeast New Mexico and will address in next package.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Convection is starting
to develop over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent Plains.
KMAF radar is showing a boundary over the Permian Basin...and high
resolution models are depicting convection forming along the
boundary this aftn/evening.

Models are hinting at more convection tonight and Sunday...
especially over the Mtns and Northern PB as the ridge remains
centered in AZ/NM and slightly weakens allowing weak shortwaves
move across.

The ridge will edge further east and strengthen in response to a
trough moving to the West Coast. Convection will be confined
mainly to the mountains by Tuesday.

Beginning Wed and continuing into next weekend the ridge will be
centered over the Southern Plains. It looks like the increased
subsidence will inhibit convection...even over the mountains.

The bigger news will be the very hot temps. With H85 temps
between 30-31C (ECMWF) and 30-34C (GFS) there will be widespread
triple digit heat across the Plains next week. It looks like the
hottest days will be Wednesday thru Friday with 105-110 possible
in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/33
199
FXUS64 KMAF 011915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Saturday...Convection is starting
to develop over the Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and adjacent Plains.
KMAF radar is showing a boundary over the Permian Basin...and high
resolution models are depicting convection forming along the
boundary this aftn/evening.

Models are hinting at more convection tonight and Sunday...
especially over the Mtns and Northern PB as the ridge remains
centered in AZ/NM and slightly weakens allowing weak shortwaves
move across.

The ridge will edge further east and strengthen in response to a
trough moving to the West Coast. Convection will be confined
mainly to the mountains by Tuesday.

Beginning Wed and continuing into next weekend the ridge will be
centered over the Southern Plains. It looks like the increased
subsidence will inhibit convection...even over the mountains.

The bigger news will be the very hot temps. With H85 temps
between 30-31C (ECMWF) and 30-34C (GFS) there will be widespread
triple digit heat across the Plains next week. It looks like the
hottest days will be Wednesday thru Friday with 105-110 possible
in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  72  98  74  99  /  20  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                    71  97  73  98  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74 100  /  20  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  99  74 101  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  91  69  90  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       70  96  72  96  /  30  10  20  20
MARFA TX                       61  91  62  91  /  20  20  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  99  74 100  /  30  20  10  10
ODESSA TX                      73  99  75 100  /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                        75 103  76 104  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/33
504
FXUS64 KMAF 011714
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast new Mexico and west
Texas terminals, for the most part.  Scattered thunderstorms will
develop over the region this afternoon and evening, and include TSRA
at all but KFST and KPEQ where probabilities appear less.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
023
FXUS64 KMAF 011002
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
BKN mid cloud deck at PEQ is all that remains with winds less
than 10kts. Winds will increase around 23Z from SE, possibly near
15kts. Have opted to include a PROB30 group for HOB after 23z. The
possibility for outflow boundaries from anticipated storms to the
n and e of MAF may result in scattered SHRA/TSRA farther w,
including MAF area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast, as persistence
rules.  WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners region, courtesy of an amplifying trough over the eastern
seaboard.  At the sfc, obs show a weak boundary has moved into the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, resulting in cooler easterly
flow into the area.

W/the upper ridge having moved to the NW, this has allowed a richer
theta-e ridge axis to nudge into the eastern zones.  -SHRA developed
on the boundary that moved into the region earlier, w/current radar
showing a few weak echoes over the Stockton Plateau near the
boundary.  Both the NAM and GFS continue migrating the theta-e ridge
westward thru the weekend, and w/residual boundaries from earlier
activity, current POPs look justified.  Main concerns continue to be
gusty winds, as forecast soundings maintain a dry subcloud layer.
Best chances should develop west and north into Monday w/the richer
theta-e, before the ring-of-fire pattern resumes as the upper ridge
builds SE back into the region.

For temps, w/the ridge over the Four Corners, today looks to be the
coolest day this forecast, if one can call 98F at KMAF cool.  After
today, models depict a progressive pattern of shortwaves thru the
flow north of the ridge, which will nudge the ridge back SE to its
proper place over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/model 1000-
500mb thicknesses increasing into the extended for another week of
triple-digit temps.  Climatologically, temps begin coming down at
KMAF on 8/10, so this week`s temps are par for the course.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
636
FXUS64 KMAF 010845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast, as persistence
rules.  WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Four
Corners region, courtesy of an amplifying trough over the eastern
seaboard.  At the sfc, obs show a weak boundary has moved into the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, resulting in cooler easterly
flow into the area.

W/the upper ridge having moved to the NW, this has allowed a richer
theta-e ridge axis to nudge into the eastern zones.  -SHRA developed
on the boundary that moved into the region earlier, w/current radar
showing a few weak echoes over the Stockton Plateau near the
boundary.  Both the NAM and GFS continue migrating the theta-e ridge
westward thru the weekend, and w/residual boundaries from earlier
activity, current POPs look justified.  Main concerns continue to be
gusty winds, as forecast soundings maintain a dry subcloud layer.
Best chances should develop west and north into Monday w/the richer
theta-e, before the ring-of-fire pattern resumes as the upper ridge
builds SE back into the region.

For temps, w/the ridge over the Four Corners, today looks to be the
coolest day this forecast, if one can call 98F at KMAF cool.  After
today, models depict a progressive pattern of shortwaves thru the
flow north of the ridge, which will nudge the ridge back SE to its
proper place over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, w/model 1000-
500mb thicknesses increasing into the extended for another week of
triple-digit temps.  Climatologically, temps begin coming down at
KMAF on 8/10, so this week`s temps are par for the course.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  72  99  74  /  30  20  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                    99  72  99  74  /  10  20  10  20
DRYDEN TX                     102  76 101  74  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  72  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  68  89  71  /  10  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                       95  68  96  71  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                       90  61  90  61  /  20  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        98  72  99  74  /  20  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                      96  73 100  74  /  20  10  20  10
WINK TX                       101  73 102  75  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/44
886
FXUS64 KMAF 010539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Isold -SHRA/-TSRA near INK/PEQ/FST, but not expected to impact
sites. Otherwise there is a mostly BKN mid cloud deck at TAF sites
that will decrease thru the night. Winds gusting in a few wrn
sites, but will diminish and not much wind until around 23Z when
SE wind will increase, possibly near 15kts. For now have omitted
mention of TSRA this PM.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
934
FXUS64 KMAF 010241
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
941 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.UPDATE...
Expanded isolated thunderstorms into western Permian Basin and
upper trans-Pecos through midnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms continued to develop over the
central and eastern Permian Basin. Outflow boundary pushing into
the Permian Basin from the north may provide additional lift
capable of sustaining at least isolated thunderstorm development
for the next couple of hours. HRRR model suggests that this
activity is likely to wind down shortly after midnight as the
atmosphere stabilizes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A weak cool front
across the extreme northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
Plains is forecast to slowly shift south and west overnight toward
the central Permian Basin northwestward toward the Pecos River
near Carlsbad. A few thunderstorms were forming near the Lubbock
area and were generating more boundaries that were pushing into
the northern Permian Basin but these features do not appear like
they will spark significant additional storms overnight that would
impact any of the terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop areawide Saturday with boundaries still lingering but
confidence was not high enough to mention at any of the terminals
at this time. Will continue to monitor. Generally east to southeast
winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24 hours.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The center of an upper ridge over the region will shift westward
during the weekend due to an amplifying ua trough over the eastern
U.S., and take up temporary residence near the Four Corners region.
The ridge will be a little weaker as a result, which will allow for
an increase in thunderstorm chances for a few days.  Models indicate
a westward moving, but weak, shortwave trough over the Lower Trans
Pecos today which will end up in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains late this afternoon.  This, along with slightly higher
theta e air in these areas, could allow for isolated
thunderstorms there into this evening.  The only other locations
which may see convection through the afternoon would be the
northern fringes of the forecast area where higher theta e air
resides. Due to a dry subcloud layer and lack of shear, any storms
could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps brief
heavy rainfall.

Another stronger shortwave trough will translate south/southeastward
around the weakening ua ridge tonight and Saturday, with an outflow
boundary or two at the surface likely moving into the area.
Therefore, will add isolated PoPs over portions of the eastern CWA
tonight, and leave scattered convection already in the forecast for
Saturday.  Temperatures will not be quite as hot Saturday, but
should warm back near the century mark most locations outside the
mountains Sunday as the ua ridge begins to expand back eastward.
The ua ridge won`t be as strong as the last few days, and higher
theta e air will linger over portions of the Permian Basin and SE NM
through Sunday, and the higher terrain through early next week.
Will leave slight chances for thunderstorms these areas, but the
general trend through early next week will be for mainly dry
conditions and temperatures staying several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  95  75  98  /  20  30  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                    73  98  70  99  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 100  75 101  /  20  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  95  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  88  69  91  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                       68  94  69  95  /  20  20  20  10
MARFA TX                       61  89  63  89  /  10  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  97  74  99  /  10  20  10  20
ODESSA TX                      75  97  75  98  /  10  20  10  20
WINK TX                        75 100  74 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/05
681
FXUS64 KMAF 312255
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A weak cool front
across the extreme northern Permian Basin and southeast New Mexico
Plains is forecast to slowly shift south and west overnight toward
the central Permian Basin northwestward toward the Pecos River
near Carlsbad. A few thunderstorms were forming near the Lubbock
area and were generating more boundaries that were pushing into
the northern Permian Basin but these features do not appear like
they will spark significant additional storms overnight that would
impact any of the terminals. Isolated thunderstorms are expected
to develop areawide Saturday with boundaries still lingering but
confidence was not high enough to mention at any of the terminals
at this time. Will continue to monitor. Generally east to southeast
winds of 5 to 15 mph are expected the next 24 hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The center of an upper ridge over the region will shift westward
during the weekend due to an amplifying ua trough over the eastern
U.S., and take up temporary residence near the Four Corners region.
The ridge will be a little weaker as a result, which will allow for
an increase in thunderstorm chances for a few days.  Models indicate
a westward moving, but weak, shortwave trough over the Lower Trans
Pecos today which will end up in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains late this afternoon.  This, along with slightly higher
theta e air in these areas, could allow for isolated
thunderstorms there into this evening.  The only other locations
which may see convection through the afternoon would be the
northern fringes of the forecast area where higher theta e air
resides. Due to a dry subcloud layer and lack of shear, any storms
could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps brief
heavy rainfall.

Another stronger shortwave trough will translate south/southeastward
around the weakening ua ridge tonight and Saturday, with an outflow
boundary or two at the surface likely moving into the area.
Therefore, will add isolated PoPs over portions of the eastern CWA
tonight, and leave scattered convection already in the forecast for
Saturday.  Temperatures will not be quite as hot Saturday, but
should warm back near the century mark most locations outside the
mountains Sunday as the ua ridge begins to expand back eastward.
The ua ridge won`t be as strong as the last few days, and higher
theta e air will linger over portions of the Permian Basin and SE NM
through Sunday, and the higher terrain through early next week.
Will leave slight chances for thunderstorms these areas, but the
general trend through early next week will be for mainly dry
conditions and temperatures staying several degrees above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67
438
FXUS64 KMAF 311913
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
213 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The center of an upper ridge over the region will shift westward
during the weekend due to an amplifying ua trough over the eastern
U.S., and take up temporary residence near the Four Corners region.
The ridge will be a little weaker as a result, which will allow for
an increase in thunderstorm chances for a few days.  Models indicate
a westward moving, but weak, shortwave trough over the Lower Trans
Pecos today which will end up in the vicinity of the Davis
Mountains late this afternoon.  This, along with slightly higher
theta e air in these areas, could allow for isolated
thunderstorms there into this evening.  The only other locations
which may see convection through the afternoon would be the
northern fringes of the forecast area where higher theta e air
resides. Due to a dry subcloud layer and lack of shear, any storms
could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps brief
heavy rainfall.

Another stronger shortwave trough will translate south/southeastward
around the weakening ua ridge tonight and Saturday, with an outflow
boundary or two at the surface likely moving into the area.
Therefore, will add isolated PoPs over portions of the eastern CWA
tonight, and leave scattered convection already in the forecast for
Saturday.  Temperatures will not be quite as hot Saturday, but
should warm back near the century mark most locations outside the
mountains Sunday as the ua ridge begins to expand back eastward.
The ua ridge won`t be as strong as the last few days, and higher
theta e air will linger over portions of the Permian Basin and SE NM
through Sunday, and the higher terrain through early next week.
Will leave slight chances for thunderstorms these areas, but the
general trend through early next week will be for mainly dry
conditions and temperatures staying several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  95  75  98  /  20  30  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                    73  98  70  99  /  10  10  20  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 100  75 101  /  20  20  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  95  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  88  69  91  /  10  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                       68  94  69  95  /  20  20  20  10
MARFA TX                       61  89  63  89  /  10  20  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  97  74  99  /  10  20  10  20
ODESSA TX                      75  97  75  98  /  10  20  10  20
WINK TX                        75 100  74 101  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/67
681
FXUS64 KMAF 311712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1212 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions continue with a few isolated storms possible this
afternoon and evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29
106
FXUS64 KMAF 311105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
605 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide today.  Thunderstorms will be
isolated, and likely not close enough to any terminals to include in
the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PoPs and temperatures will continue to be modulated by the
subtropical ridge and the mid level theta-e ridge entrained within
said ridge. Today, the subtropical ridge axis will be to the north
of the CWFA as will be the theta-e ridge, while dropping se from the
ne-n, nearing the far ern CWFA. Anecdotal observations indicate
that convection also tends to develop in the mid level theta-e
gradient and there may be a convective boundary INVOF nrn CWFA
late today. As such will opt to reflect isold PoPs n and far e
INVOF said features. The subtropical ridge amplifies to the nw Sat
PM with indications of a weak shrtwv trof within the nw flow
aloft. This will favor the mid level theta-e ridge axis farther s
into the n-ne CWFA and worthy of scattered PoPs, which are already
in the forecast. A similar set-up for Sunday, even though the
ridge flattens some. Mtn PoPs will continue to be suppressed thru
Sunday with only isold tstms possible. Outside of temps being
convectively cooled (clouds/precip/outflow) across the n-e it will
still be hot thru the weekend, mostly above normal temps will
persist. Perusal of GEFS ensemble 85h,7h temp data (+2 to +3
standard deviations) also supports above normal temps. On Mon/Tue
there will be a slight uptick in PoPs across SE NM/Upper Trans,
but thereafter there is a good chance that the subtropical ridge
will move east as a trof slowly deepens along the NW coast,
ensuring hot wx will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  99  75  97  75  /  10  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     101  76 100  76  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              87  66  91  70  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  95  70  /  10  10  20  10
MARFA TX                       89  62  90  65  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  73  97  74  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                      99  74  97  75  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                       102  74 100  75  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
105
FXUS64 KMAF 310741
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PoPs and temperatures will continue to be modulated by the
subtropical ridge and the mid level theta-e ridge entrained within
said ridge. Today, the subtropical ridge axis will be to the north
of the CWFA as will be the theta-e ridge, while dropping se from the
ne-n, nearing the far ern CWFA. Anecdotal observations indicate
that convection also tends to develop in the mid level theta-e
gradient and there may be a convective boundary INVOF nrn CWFA
late today. As such will opt to reflect isold PoPs n and far e
INVOF said features. The subtropical ridge amplifies to the nw Sat
PM with indications of a weak shrtwv trof within the nw flow
aloft. This will favor the mid level theta-e ridge axis farther s
into the n-ne CWFA and worthy of scattered PoPs, which are already
in the forecast. A similar set-up for Sunday, even though the
ridge flattens some. Mtn PoPs will continue to be suppressed thru
Sunday with only isold tstms possible. Outside of temps being
convectively cooled (clouds/precip/outflow) across the n-e it will
still be hot thru the weekend, mostly above normal temps will
persist. Perusal of GEFS ensemble 85h,7h temp data (+2 to +3
standard deviations) also supports above normal temps. On Mon/Tue
there will be a slight uptick in PoPs across SE NM/Upper Trans,
but thereafter there is a good chance that the subtropical ridge
will move east as a trof slowly deepens along the NW coast,
ensuring hot wx will continue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  99  75  97  75  /  10  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                    98  71  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                     101  76 100  76  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              87  66  91  70  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  95  70  /  10  10  20  10
MARFA TX                       89  62  90  65  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  73  97  74  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                      99  74  97  75  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                       102  74 100  75  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
794
FXUS64 KMAF 310400
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1100 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under
ridging aloft. Theta-e ridge is forecast to stay well NW of the
area, so chances of convection at terminals remain slim. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field late Friday morning,
w/bases initially 5-8 kft agl.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
762
FXUS64 KMAF 302119
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
419 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under
ridging aloft. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field
late Friday morning, w/bases initially 4-7 kft agl.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
227
FXUS64 KMAF 301937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A couple of surface boundaries hanging around northern portions of
the region this afternoon with cu developing near these
boundaries in the Central Permian Basin and also Lea county. With
continued heating, could see some isolated convection popping up
at some point across these areas then diminishing after sunset.
Temperatures near a degree or two cooler today than yesterday with
highs generally in the 90s most areas. A subtropical ridge slowly
retrograding overhead today will continue westward through Friday,
becoming somewhat anchored over NM this weekend. Much of the same
expected Friday with highest rain chances remaining north of the
CWA in NM and TX Panhandle. SE NM will remain on the edge of the
monsoonal activity so not entirely sure this area won`t see some
isolated showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening.

Northerly flow aloft develops by Saturday, potentially bringing rain
chances back to the region as upper weaknesses slide around the east
side of the ridge. Through the weekend, highest rain chances will
likely remain across the eastern half of the FA although could see
some afternoon mountain convection as well. Monday and beyond,
forecast guidance differ slightly in the location of the upper ridge
with the GFS keeping it centered over NM and the ECMWF farther
southwest. Either way, models not showing much in the way of QPF so
will continue with a mostly dry forecast other than some potential
for mountain convection each afternoon. Above normal temps will
continue through the forecast period, although not quite as hot as
we have been seeing this last week or so.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  98  75  97  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    71  95  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      76 100  76 100  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  95  73  98  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              69  87  68  90  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       70  94  69  95  /  10  10  10  20
MARFA TX                       64  88  64  90  /  10   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  98  74  97  /  10   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                      74  98  75  97  /  10   0  10  20
WINK TX                        74  99  74 100  /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27
093
FXUS64 KMAF 301704
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening, but
probabilities are too low to include at any terminal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
783
FXUS64 KMAF 301104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions areawide through the period.  There will be a
chance of thunderstorms, especially at KHOB and KCNM, but
probabilities are too low to include in the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...
First period pops.

Already have showers kicking up across the NE Permian Basin and
this could be a trend for today so expanded isolated pops across
SE NM and the Permian Basin.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

Upper ridge centered over the Red River this morning will build
back across the west the next couple of days becoming centered over
NM. This may result in slightly cooler wx for much of the area and
put the region into NW flow aloft.

Temperatures will continue to slowly trend downward the next few
days as ridge moves back to the west.  Upper 90s should become more
common than 100s beginning today but usual hot spots along the
Pecos and Rio Grande will continue.  Unusually high overnight
temps will continue as south to southeast flow keeps dewpts in the
50s and 60s and limit nocturnal cooling.

Have good coverage of storms over Central and Eastern NM this
morning with a few extending down into Eddy and Lea county.  These
storms are moving around the west side of the upper ridge but most
of these will stay north of the area today only skirting the
northern CWA.  With good low level moisture... daytime heating...
and outflow boundaries from recent convection cannot rule out a
few random storms popping over the area but do not want to cover
the whole CWA in isolated pops so have not mentioned.  The Davis
Mtns have been very favorable for storm development this week but
models are indicating that will not be the case today or tomorrow
so have not included.  Saturday storms look to have more coverage
over the eastern half of the area as disturbances roll around the
east side of the ridge.  Low pops in the extended favor the eastern
Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  74  96  73  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  95  69  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  76  99  75  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  73  97  71  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  70  88  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  94  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       88  61  87  60  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  75  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      99  75  98  73  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                       101  75 100  72  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/72
539
FXUS64 KMAF 301019
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
First period pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Already have showers kicking up across the NE Permian Basin and
this could be a trend for today so expanded isolated pops across
SE NM and the Permian Basin.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Red River this morning will build
back across the west the next couple of days becoming centered over
NM. This may result in slightly cooler wx for much of the area and
put the region into NW flow aloft.

Temperatures will continue to slowly trend downward the next few
days as ridge moves back to the west.  Upper 90s should become more
common than 100s beginning today but usual hot spots along the
Pecos and Rio Grande will continue.  Unusually high overnight
temps will continue as south to southeast flow keeps dewpts in the
50s and 60s and limit nocturnal cooling.

Have good coverage of storms over Central and Eastern NM this
morning with a few extending down into Eddy and Lea county.  These
storms are moving around the west side of the upper ridge but most
of these will stay north of the area today only skirting the
northern CWA.  With good low level moisture... daytime heating...
and outflow boundaries from recent convection cannot rule out a
few random storms popping over the area but do not want to cover
the whole CWA in isolated pops so have not mentioned.  The Davis
Mtns have been very favorable for storm development this week but
models are indicating that will not be the case today or tomorrow
so have not included.  Saturday storms look to have more coverage
over the eastern half of the area as disturbances roll around the
east side of the ridge.  Low pops in the extended favor the eastern
Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  74  96  73  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  95  69  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  76  99  75  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  73  97  71  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  70  88  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  94  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       88  61  87  60  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  75  98  73  /  10   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      99  75  98  73  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                       101  75 100  72  /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
036
FXUS64 KMAF 300816
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Red River this morning will build
back across the west the next couple of days becoming centered over
NM. This may result in slightly cooler wx for much of the area and
put the region into NW flow aloft.

Temperatures will continue to slowly trend downward the next few
days as ridge moves back to the west.  Upper 90s should become more
common than 100s beginning today but usual hot spots along the
Pecos and Rio Grande will continue.  Unusually high overnight
temps will continue as south to southeast flow keeps dewpts in the
50s and 60s and limit nocturnal cooling.

Have good coverage of storms over Central and Eastern NM this
morning with a few extending down into Eddy and Lea county.  These
storms are moving around the west side of the upper ridge but most
of these will stay north of the area today only skirting the
northern CWA.  With good low level moisture... daytime heating...
and outflow boundaries from recent convection cannot rule out a
few random storms popping over the area but do not want to cover
the whole CWA in isolated pops so have not mentioned.  The Davis
Mtns have been very favorable for storm development this week but
models are indicating that will not be the case today or tomorrow
so have not included.  Saturday storms look to have more coverage
over the eastern half of the area as disturbances roll around the
east side of the ridge.  Low pops in the extended favor the eastern
Permian Basin.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  97  74  96  73  /  10   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  95  69  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  76  99  75  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               98  73  97  71  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              89  70  88  68  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       95  69  94  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       88  61  87  60  /  10   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        99  75  98  73  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      99  75  98  73  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                       101  75 100  72  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/72
107
FXUS64 KMAF 300554
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1254 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Area radars and short-term models show convection has largely
diminished across the area. VFR conditions will prevail next 24
hours in return flow under persistent ridging aloft. Forecast
soundings develop a widespread cu field by late Thursday morning,
w/initial bases 4.5-7 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for increased chance of thunderstorms over the
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and mountain areas.

DISCUSSION...
By mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing along
a surface boundary entering the northern Permian Basin in an area
characterized by CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000. Continued
development along this boundary as well as any additional outflow
boundaries that might develop is possible through early evening as
the atmosphere across the region is uncapped. Though instability
is less over the Permian Basin, will need to watch boundaries for
possible foci of development. Thunderstorms will begin to
decrease this evening with a loss of heating. Though shear is
insufficient for organized thunderstorm activity, DCAPE values are
significant, in excess of 1000. Sub-cloud evaporation will be
capable of producing strong and possibly damaging downbursts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
950
FXUS64 KMAF 300226 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
926 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Reduced rain chances across western zones including mountains.
Holding on to slight chances over mountains and Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers winding down across area with loss of daytime heating. A
few stubborn showers holding on in Permian Basin aided by
converging outflow boundaries. Should see most shower activity
dissipate by midnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Area radars and short-term models show another night of convection
on tap, mainly SE NM, although many boundaries abound elsewhere.
Regardless, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return
flow under persistent ridging aloft. Forecast soundings develop a
widespread cu field by late Thursday morning, w/initial bases
4.5-6 kft agl.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for increased chance of thunderstorms over the
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and mountain areas.

DISCUSSION...
By mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing along
a surface boundary entering the northern Permian Basin in an area
characterized by CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000. Continued
development along this boundary as well as any additional outflow
boundaries that might develop is possible through early evening as
the atmosphere across the region is uncapped. Though instability
is less over the Permian Basin, will need to watch boundaries for
possible foci of development. Thunderstorms will begin to
decrease this evening with a loss of heating. Though shear is
insufficient for organized thunderstorm activity, DCAPE values are
significant, in excess of 1000. Sub-cloud evaporation will be
capable of producing strong and possibly damaging downbursts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  97  73  96  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    70  97  69  96  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  98  73  97  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  68  88  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       70  95  70  93  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       59  90  57  88  /  10  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  98  72  97  /  20   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      73  98  74  97  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                        75 103  73 101  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/05
668
FXUS64 KMAF 292242
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars and short-term models show another night of convection
on tap, mainly SE NM, although many boundaries abound elsewhere.
Regardless, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return
flow under persistent ridging aloft. Forecast soundings develop a
widespread cu field by late Thursday morning, w/initial bases
4.5-6 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for increased chance of thunderstorms over the
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and mountain areas.

DISCUSSION...
By mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing along
a surface boundary entering the northern Permian Basin in an area
characterized by CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000. Continued
development along this boundary as well as any additional outflow
boundaries that might develop is possible through early evening as
the atmosphere across the region is uncapped. Though instability
is less over the Permian Basin, will need to watch boundaries for
possible foci of development. Thunderstorms will begin to
decrease this evening with a loss of heating. Though shear is
insufficient for organized thunderstorm activity, DCAPE values are
significant, in excess of 1000. Sub-cloud evaporation will be
capable of producing strong and possibly damaging downbursts.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
094
FXUS64 KMAF 292032 AAA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast for increased chance of thunderstorms over the
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and mountain areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
By mid-afternoon, showers and thunderstorms were developing along
a surface boundary entering the northern Permian Basin in an area
characterized by CAPE values ranging from 500 to 1000. Continued
development along this boundary as well as any additional outflow
boundaries that might develop is possible through early evening as
the atmosphere across the region is uncapped. Though instability
is less over the Permian Basin, will need to watch boundaries for
possible foci of development. Thunderstorms will begin to
decrease this evening with a loss of heating. Though shear is
insufficient for organized thunderstorm activity, DCAPE values are
significant, in excess of 1000. Sub-cloud evaporation will be
capable of producing strong and possibly damaging downbursts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  97  73  96  /   0  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    70  97  69  96  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74  99  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  98  73  97  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  68  88  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       70  95  70  93  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       59  90  57  88  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  98  72  97  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      73  98  74  97  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        75 103  73 101  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/99
634
FXUS64 KMAF 291924
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:15 PM CDT Wednesday...Hot and muggy weather
continues with convection starting in the usual places...the
Davis/Guadalupe Mtns and the adjacent Plains. Convection is also
forming a little further east in Western Lea and Eddy Counties
along the thetae ridge per the HRRR and RAP13 high res models.

The persistent subtropical ridge centered over the Arklatex area
will shift west over the Central Plains as a trough deepens in the
eastern US. This might actually result in no convection in the
CWA Thursday thru Friday due to increased subsidence from the
ridge center moving overhead. Temps might not be as hot as the
previous week...but will remain above normal.

Medium range models are hinting at the possibility of convection
in the CWA over the weekend as the ridge continues to shift west
to over the four corners area. This will bring a NW flow aloft
possibly bringing convection into the area out of Northern New
Mexico.

As a trough in the EastPac moves into the Pacific NW early next
week the ridge will flatten and elongate bringing a return to
drier weather...with triple digits possible once again in the
Plains by mid week.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  97  73  96  /   0  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                    70  97  69  96  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      75 100  74  99  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  98  73  97  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  89  68  88  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       70  95  70  93  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       59  90  57  88  /  20  10   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  98  72  97  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                      73  98  74  97  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                        75 103  73 101  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/33
095
FXUS64 KMAF 291724
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of thunderstorms for CNM this afternoon through
tonight. Winds will become elevated with some gusts out of the
southeast this afternoon before weakening late this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
First period pops.

DISCUSSION...
Expected nocturnal storms to die out by sunrise but these are
continuing over the far west down to the Big Bend. Have updated
forecast to begin storms earlier.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to
shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves
over the Northeast.  This ridge will become centered over AZ/NM
border by Saturday.

Have bumped up temps to the Century mark again today for MAF/ODO as
cool down has been very slow to get started.  Yesterday was the 6th
day in a row and 13th of the last 16 days to reach 100 degrees at
MAF.  Expect another day with temperatures across much of the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos to be near 100 but should finally see
a decrease into the 90s after that.  Part of the reason for
unseasonably hot day time temps have been the very warm nighttime
temperatures with widespread 80s and even some 90s continuing past
midnight.  Until see some significant cooling staying on the warm
side of guidance.  Diurnal temperature range only running 25 degrees
or less due to the high dewpts.  However temp trend should be slowly
downward.

Early this morning thunderstorms continue from Jeff Davis up through
Eddy county which is part of a larger area of precipitation running
northward to AMA.  This rain has put out a large outflow moving into
the Western Permian Basin that could become a focus for storms this
afternoon... but difficult to guess where it will end up.  Currently
not including any pops across the Permian Basin today but can`t rule
out something firing on that boundary later today.  Should see
storms over and near the mountains again this afternoon and evening.
After that models really cut back on pops over the mountains for a
few days.  Next decent shot of rain looks to be Saturday when may
get a shortwave coming around the east side of the ridge.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
901
FXUS64 KMAF 291159
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
659 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
First period pops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Expected nocturnal storms to die out by sunrise but these are
continuing over the far west down to the Big Bend. Have updated
forecast to begin storms earlier.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for CNM today and
tonight. Winds will be light this morning and somewhat variable
then become elevated out of the southeast this afternoon before
weakening later this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to
shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves
over the Northeast.  This ridge will become centered over AZ/NM
border by Saturday.

Have bumped up temps to the Century mark again today for MAF/ODO as
cool down has been very slow to get started.  Yesterday was the 6th
day in a row and 13th of the last 16 days to reach 100 degrees at
MAF.  Expect another day with temperatures across much of the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos to be near 100 but should finally see
a decrease into the 90s after that.  Part of the reason for
unseasonably hot day time temps have been the very warm nighttime
temperatures with widespread 80s and even some 90s continuing past
midnight.  Until see some significant cooling staying on the warm
side of guidance.  Diurnal temperature range only running 25 degrees
or less due to the high dewpts.  However temp trend should be slowly
downward.

Early this morning thunderstorms continue from Jeff Davis up through
Eddy county which is part of a larger area of precipitation running
northward to AMA.  This rain has put out a large outflow moving into
the Western Permian Basin that could become a focus for storms this
afternoon... but difficult to guess where it will end up.  Currently
not including any pops across the Permian Basin today but can`t rule
out something firing on that boundary later today.  Should see
storms over and near the mountains again this afternoon and evening.
After that models really cut back on pops over the mountains for a
few days.  Next decent shot of rain looks to be Saturday when may
get a shortwave coming around the east side of the ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  75  97  74  /   0   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                   100  72  98  72  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     101  77 100  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX              100  73  97  73  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  71  89  70  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       98  72  96  70  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       90  60  89  59  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       100  75  98  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                     100  75  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                       103  76 101  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$
301
FXUS64 KMAF 291109
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for CNM today and
tonight. Winds will be light this morning and somewhat variable
then become elevated out of the southeast this afternoon before
weakening later this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to
shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves
over the Northeast.  This ridge will become centered over AZ/NM
border by Saturday.

Have bumped up temps to the Century mark again today for MAF/ODO as
cool down has been very slow to get started.  Yesterday was the 6th
day in a row and 13th of the last 16 days to reach 100 degrees at
MAF.  Expect another day with temperatures across much of the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos to be near 100 but should finally see
a decrease into the 90s after that.  Part of the reason for
unseasonably hot day time temps have been the very warm nighttime
temperatures with widespread 80s and even some 90s continuing past
midnight.  Until see some significant cooling staying on the warm
side of guidance.  Diurnal temperature range only running 25 degrees
or less due to the high dewpts.  However temp trend should be slowly
downward.

Early this morning thunderstorms continue from Jeff Davis up through
Eddy county which is part of a larger area of precipitation running
northward to AMA.  This rain has put out a large outflow moving into
the Western Permian Basin that could become a focus for storms this
afternoon... but difficult to guess where it will end up.  Currently
not including any pops across the Permian Basin today but can`t rule
out something firing on that boundary later today.  Should see
storms over and near the mountains again this afternoon and evening.
After that models really cut back on pops over the mountains for a
few days.  Next decent shot of rain looks to be Saturday when may
get a shortwave coming around the east side of the ridge.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99
204
FXUS64 KMAF 290818
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
318 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over Eastern OK this morning will begin to
shift back to the west as upper trough passing to the north moves
over the Northeast.  This ridge will become centered over AZ/NM
border by Saturday.

Have bumped up temps to the Century mark again today for MAF/ODO as
cool down has been very slow to get started.  Yesterday was the 6th
day in a row and 13th of the last 16 days to reach 100 degrees at
MAF.  Expect another day with temperatures across much of the
Permian Basin and Trans Pecos to be near 100 but should finally see
a decrease into the 90s after that.  Part of the reason for
unseasonably hot day time temps have been the very warm nighttime
temperatures with widespread 80s and even some 90s continuing past
midnight.  Until see some significant cooling staying on the warm
side of guidance.  Diurnal temperature range only running 25 degrees
or less due to the high dewpts.  However temp trend should be slowly
downward.

Early this morning thunderstorms continue from Jeff Davis up through
Eddy county which is part of a larger area of precipitation running
northward to AMA.  This rain has put out a large outflow moving into
the Western Permian Basin that could become a focus for storms this
afternoon... but difficult to guess where it will end up.  Currently
not including any pops across the Permian Basin today but can`t rule
out something firing on that boundary later today.  Should see
storms over and near the mountains again this afternoon and evening.
After that models really cut back on pops over the mountains for a
few days.  Next decent shot of rain looks to be Saturday when may
get a shortwave coming around the east side of the ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  98  75  97  74  /   0   0  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                   100  72  98  72  /  10  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                     101  77 100  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX              100  73  97  73  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              92  71  89  70  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       98  72  96  70  /  10   0  10  10
MARFA TX                       90  60  89  59  /  20  20  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX       100  75  98  74  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                     100  75  98  75  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                       103  76 101  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/72
555
FXUS64 KMAF 290505
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1205 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

Convection will be possible invof KCNM over the next few hours.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return
flow under upper-lvl ridging. A widespread cu field is forecast
to develop late morning Wed.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday...Above normal
temperatures continue in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

A few storms are firing up in the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn...and should continue into the evening as well in the
adjacent Plains. The rest of the area will be dry. These storms
will dissipate shortly after sunset.

The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will remain nearly
stationary thru the end of the week. Models do cool H85 temps a
couple of degrees tomorrow as the ridge slightly flattens with a
shortwave moving across the northern tier of states. This could
drop temps a couple of degrees...but temps will still be near to
above normal. Dry weather will be the rule in the Plains...with
isolated aftn/evening storms in the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns thru
the end of the week. However...chances will be decreasing.

Medium range models diverge over the weekend as the ECMWF shifts
the center of the ridge to the Four Corners region in response to
a deepening trough in the Eastern US. Looks like the ECMWF wants
to bring convection to the CWA out of Northern New Mexico in NW
flow aloft. The GFS has the ridge further east with NE flow aloft.
Will wait for better model consistency before making any changes
to the extended.

Further in the extended the ECMWF has the ridge further west into
the Desert SW whereas the GFS is a little stronger and further
east with the ridge. Basically...the main difference would be that
the ECMWF would be a little "cooler".

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44
662
FXUS64 KMAF 282134
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow under
upper-lvl ridging. A widespread cu field is forecast to develop
late morning Wed.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:00 PM CDT Tuesday...Above normal
temperatures continue in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.

A few storms are firing up in the Davis and Guadalupe Mtns this
aftn...and should continue into the evening as well in the
adjacent Plains. The rest of the area will be dry. These storms
will dissipate shortly after sunset.

The persistent ridge over the Southern Plains will remain nearly
stationary thru the end of the week. Models do cool H85 temps a
couple of degrees tomorrow as the ridge slightly flattens with a
shortwave moving across the northern tier of states. This could
drop temps a couple of degrees...but temps will still be near to
above normal. Dry weather will be the rule in the Plains...with
isolated aftn/evening storms in the Guadalupe and Davis Mtns thru
the end of the week. However...chances will be decreasing.

Medium range models diverge over the weekend as the ECMWF shifts
the center of the ridge to the Four Corners region in response to
a deepening trough in the Eastern US. Looks like the ECMWF wants
to bring convection to the CWA out of Northern New Mexico in NW
flow aloft. The GFS has the ridge further east with NE flow aloft.
Will wait for better model consistency before making any changes
to the extended.

Further in the extended the ECMWF has the ridge further west into
the Desert SW whereas the GFS is a little stronger and further
east with the ridge. Basically...the main difference would be that
the ECMWF would be a little "cooler".

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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