Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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807
FXUS64 KMAF 300520
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
will prevail at all terminals. Currently have some convection move
south through eastern NM and TX Panhandle tonight. Not really
expecting this activity to affect HOB but will continue to monitor
radar trends and amend if needed.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 245 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge extending across the southern
CONUS, pinched in two by a sort of col over Texas as an upper
trough moves into the MS Valley.  This is giving a break to the warm
temps of late in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. However,
things should remain above-normal into the extended, with KMAF on
day 26 of its 38-day climatological maximum.  Over the next few
days, the col is forecast to dissipate, and the upper ridge develop
back into Texas, leading to a gradual upward tick in highs each day.
By Tuesday, triple-digit afternoon temps may develop out of the
Pecos Rvr Valley and onto the Plains, and then level out into the
extended.

As for rain prospects, the H85 theta-e ridge lies across the SE half
of the CWA, and will be the focus of convection this afternoon and
tonight.  12Z KMAF RAOB suggests more of the same type of convection
that has occurred over the last few days--high-based, gusty
outflows, and a little rain to go w/it.  In addition to the theta-e
ridge south, loop of area radars show several boundaries knocking
about to the north, w/convection trying to develop along some of
them.  For these reasons, at least isolated convection cannot be
ruled out either south or north thru tonight.  After today, models
generally reorient the richer theta-e to the higher terrain. Under
the ridge, w/diurnal convection establishing new boundaries daily,
the scenario will likely remain low-pop, broad areal
coverage, changing daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  98  70  98 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       70  96  71  98 /  10  10  10  20
Dryden                         72  98  71  98 /  10  10   0  10
Fort Stockton                  71  97  71  98 /  10  20  10  20
Guadalupe Pass                 69  89  67  89 /  10  20  20  20
Hobbs                          67  93  71  96 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                          59  88  61  90 /  10  30  10  20
Midland Intl Airport           71  97  71  99 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         71  95  72  98 /  10  10   0  10
Wink                           72  97  72  99 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/72

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