Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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666
FXUS64 KMAF 160431
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1131 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected across southeast New Mexico and
southwest Texas through Wednesday evening with no significant
weather expected. Winds will generally be south to southeast
across the area with stronger winds near 20 knots and gusty at
eastern terminals including MAF and FST. As a surface low and cold
front push south through eastern New Mexico, winds at CNM and PEQ
will become southwesterly but light in the evening. A cold front
switching winds to the north will be approaching CNM and HOB
terminals at 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR with a few clouds moving in from the west.  Southerly winds
will drop off some overnight but pick back up by midday tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT Tue Apr 15 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A warming trend is expected to continue tonight and Wednesday due
to a lee surface trough intensifying ahead of a broad and weak
upper level trough. The aforementioned upper level trough is
forecast to track across the plains early Thursday and drive a dry
cold front south through the forecast area Thursday morning. High
temperatures will cool several degrees behind this front Thursday
to below normal values most areas.

Deep southwesterly flow aloft will quickly develop by Friday and
continue Saturday ahead of and along a southern stream upper
level storm system. The trough and an associated significant lead
shortwave will be close enough by Friday afternoon for mention of
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across extreme
western sections of southeast New Mexico and extreme west Texas.
The lead wave is forecast to track across the forecast area Friday
night so will include a slight chance to a chance of showers
and thunderstorms across the entire forecast area.

Saturday could be the first spring convective event. The main
upper level storm system will approach during the afternoon and
lift and instability will increase significantly ahead of a
dryline. Looking for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms to
develop along the dryline during the day and move east toward the
eastern Permian Basin in the evening with some potential for an
mesoscale system to develop. For now went with mainly chance
pops in the forecast area with the highest pops in the eastern
Basin Saturday evening. The upper level trough will pass by
later Saturday night with decreasing chances of precipitation
Sunday.

Beyond Sunday kept a dry forecast and went with a split in
guidance temperatures due to significant differences between the
models in the pattern aloft with temperatures expected to be
a few degrees above normal. Another storm system may impact
the area by next Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and dry conditions will persist over the region this afternoon
with most locations seeing minimum afternoon RHs around 10 to 15
percent.  Southerly 20 foot winds of 15 to 25 mph will persist over
portions of the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico Plains
until around sunset, so elevated fire weather conditions are
expected to continue through 7 pm MDT.  Even though temperatures
will drop near or below normal levels tonight, recovery will be poor
to fair in most areas.

The surface pressure gradient will tighten over the region tonight
and Wednesday, with most locations seeing at least 15 to 20 mph
sustained, southerly 20 foot winds Wednesday afternoon.
Temperatures will warm to near normal levels Wednesday with minimum
afternoon RH/s dropping to 7 to 15 percent along and west of a
Snyder to Midland to Sanderson line.  Southwesterly 20 foot winds of
at least 15 to 25 mph are expected to occur in the Guadalupe
Mountains.  Since it is not clear cut whether these winds will be a
little stronger or not, will continue with the Fire Weather Watch
for the Guadalupes Wednesday afternoon and evening.  It does not
appear wind speeds will be strong enough, long enough, for critical
fire weather conditions over the rest of the forecast area.  The
Haines Index will be high over northern portions of the area
Wednesday afternoon, and over all of the forecast area Wednesday
night.  After poor to fair recovery along and west of a Maljamar to
Pecos to Big Bend line Wednesday night, a cold front will push south
over the area Thursday.  Northerly winds of 15 to 25 mph are
expected behind the front, but RH/s will stay above 15 percent in
the cooler air.  Portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend will
see RH/s drop to 10 to 15 percent Thursday afternoon.  However, 20
foot wind speeds will not be strong enough for critical fire weather
conditions.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

05

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