Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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912
FXUS64 KMAF 301355
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
855 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  ALSO ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS RECEIVING RAINFALL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS DIMINISHING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS IT MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
MARFA PLATEAU AT 30/1345Z.  THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH LITTLE CONVECTION LEFT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA BY LATE MORNING.  WE COULD STILL SEE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MAX HEATING...SO WILL
LEAVE LOW ORDER POPS THERE.  A COUPLE OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT NOWHERE NEAR THE LEVELS
OF THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION.  ADJUSTED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A
LITTLE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL...AND OTHERWISE TWEAKED
SKY COVERAGE. AN UPDATE WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AFTER
DROPPING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND CREATING STRONG WINDS. MODERATE RAIN
AND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE AT KMAF, KINK, KPEQ, AND KFST FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. ONCE THIS STORM
COMPLEX DISSIPATES, NOT EXPECTING ANY NEW DEVELOPMENT AT THE
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

UPDATE...

WE`LL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO EXPAND AREAL COVERAGE FOR THIS
MORNING`S CONVECTION.  UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

FIRST FORECAST USING A2...SO RUNNING A LITTLE BEHIND. WE`LL KEEP
THIS SHORT, AS RADAR SHOWS A COMPLEX OF CONVECTION MOVING SW THRU
THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER UT, AND W/A TROUGH
OVER THE MS VALLEY, THIS LEAVES TEXAS UNDER A GENERAL AREA OF
UPPER-LVL DIVERGENCE, WHICH MAY BE ASSISTING THE MCS. KMAF VWP
INDICATES A 25+KT SOUTHERLY LLJ RIGHT OFF THE DECK, HELPING
MAINTAIN THIS ALSO. LATEST HRRR CAPTURES THIS NICELY, AND CARRIES
IT AT LEAST THRU THE MORNING HOURS. FFMP INDICATES RAINFALL RATES
OF UP TO 2.5"+/HR OVER HOWARD/SCURRY COUNTIES, AND FLASH FLOODING
LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

OTHERWISE, THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO STAY CENTERED WEST OF
THE 4 CORNERS THE REST OF THE WEEK, THEN BEGIN BUILDING EAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, MODELS KEEP THE LOW-LVL THETA-E RIDGE
TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO,
RESULTING IN THE TYPICAL RING-OF-FIRE SCENARIO FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THUS, BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CWA INTO THE EXTENDED. AS FOR TEMPS, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS, TEMP PROGS, GREEN-UP, AND PAST PERFORMANCE SUGGEST
STAYING GENERALLY TO THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, WHICH WOULD BE
JUST BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  90  70  94  69  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    93  65  97  69  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      92  72  90  71  /  30  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               91  68  95  68  /  30   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  64  91  68  /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                       91  65  93  67  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       86  57  88  59  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        90  69  94  70  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      89  70  94  69  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                        95  70  97  71  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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