Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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561
FXUS64 KMAF 250900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
400 AM CDT MON APR 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows yesterday`s upper trough ejecting NE thru SD,
while to the west, the next system has made landfall on the upper
west coast.  Zonal flow aloft currently residing over West Texas and
Southeast new Mexico will become increasingly SW today as the trough
digs to the UT/CO border by 12Z Tuesday.  Thus, today we`ll be
between systems, and not quite as windy as yesterday, nor as windy
as tomorrow.  Temps will be similar to yesterday`s, yielding
critical fire wx conditions in much of the same area as yesterday.
See Fire Wx Discussion below for more details.

Tonight, as the PacNW trough approaches the UT/CO border, a H7 50-60
kt jet rounding the base of the trough will move into the
Guadalupes, inducing a respectable mtn wave signature beginning
around 06Z Tuesday.  H7 pressure gradient tightens up to better than
60m/200nm as well.  All that said, we`ll upgrade the High Wind Watch
to a warning, and back it up to 06Z Tuesday.  Forecast soundings on
the adjacent plains suggest mixing to h7 Tuesday afternoon, so
we`llgo ahead and issue Wind Advisories for these areas, as well. As
the trough passes north of the region Tuesday, a Pac front will
arrive, pushing the thermal ridge and dryline east for some temps
closer to normal Tuesday afternoon.  As far as convection
developing along the dryline as it attempts to retreat Tuesday night,
models are even further east w/this than they were 24 hours ago.

Wednesday`s temps should remain roughly the same as Tuesday`s as the
trough exits towards the Great Lakes Region, and a third system
begins digging into the SW CONUS.  Long-range models bring this
feature to the Four Corners by 12-18Z Friday.  Thursday night,
strong return flow is forecast to advect abundant Gulf moisture into
the eastern zones, and push the dryline west to mid-CWA. Combined
w/perturbations moving up thru SW flow aloft, this will open a window
for convection east of the dryline, and looks to be our best chance
for rain this forecast.  This third trough exits to the north
Friday, and then a fourth approaches the region over the weekend.
This will leave a chance of precip in the grids Friday and beyond,
although details are sketchy attm due to model disagreements.
Temps should stay near-normal thru the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An upper level trough will be approaching the region from the west
today with gusty southwest winds across southeast New Mexico and
West Texas.  Winds of 20 mph or greater can be expected along and
west of the Upper Trans Pecos.  A dryline will be to the west of the
area, allowing for low RH values areawide.  Temperatures today will
be about 10 degrees above normal.  A Red Flag Warning is in effect
today for the southeast New Mexico plains, the Guadalupe Mountains,
and the Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor area.  The base of the
previously mentioned upper trough will move over the region on
Tuesday allowing for strong winds to mix down to the surface.  The
strong winds will be especially prevalent across the Guadalupe
Mountains and surrounding plains.  Minimum RH values will be
slightly higher than today but are still expected to be 15 percent
or lower across a majority of the area Tuesday afternoon.
Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be closer to normal values,
but went ahead and issued a Fire Weather Watch for the southeast New
Mexico plains, the Guadalupe Mountains, the Van Horn and Highway 54
Corridor, Reeves County, and the Upper Trans Pecos Tuesday
afternoon into early evening due to the dry and windy conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     90  61  84  54 /   0   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       88  56  76  51 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         94  64  92  61 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  92  59  88  54 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 80  53  70  47 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          85  55  76  48 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          83  45  79  39 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           91  63  83  53 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         90  62  81  56 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           92  56  84  49 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Tuesday
     night for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night
     for Eddy County Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Tuesday to 1 AM
     CDT /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Van
     Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Tuesday to 1 AM CDT
     /midnight MDT/ Wednesday for Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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