Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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600
FXUS64 KMAF 240930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
430 AM CDT Sun Aug 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge now centered over Arkansas continues to keep the
heat turned up across most of the South. This along with a weaker
sfc trough led to much less precip over our area on Saturday.
Similar conditions are expected today, however we will have an
instability axis hanging around the Permian Basin. High-res models
along with some of the large scale models develop precip along this
axis. Can`t argue with the performance of these models over the past
few days so will extend isolated PoPs into the PB. With temperatures
in the upper 90s, the sub-cloud layer will be very dry so expect
that these storms will contain very gusty winds.

Rain chances should be confined to the higher terrain and parts of
SE NM after today as the upper ridge remains in control through at
least midweek. This will also keep temperatures around 5 degrees
above normal.

The forecast becomes a bit muddy late in the week as frontal timing
is off between most of the models. The GFS is more progressive with
the upper trough and brings a front down Thursday. The ECMWF and CMC
are slower and deeper with the trough, bringing a front in later.
Will side closer to the ladder as the upper trough becomes detached
from the Polar branch while the strong upper high to our east also
helps to slow the troughs progress east. Either way we should see
a better chance of rain when the front does arrive. Will trend
PoPs higher Thursday and Friday and down Wednesday. Have also
cooled temperatures back to near normal for late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  97  70  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  75 100  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                97  72  97  71  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  77 102  77  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  72  97  71  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  66  90  66  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   94  69  95  67  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   87  61  88  60  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  74  98  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  74  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   100  74 100  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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