Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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993
FXUS64 KMAF 032313
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers are moving through the area along a weak cold front
this afternoon but will not impact any TAF sites. VFR conditions
will remain through the period. North to northeast winds will
continue through most of the period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies. Expect
afternoon temperatures to be around 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An upper trough moving south
through the TX Panhandle this afternoon has generated some showers
and thunderstorms just north of the area. This activity may
affect portions of the northern Permian Basin and potentially
southeast NM through late afternoon so pulled mention of isolated
thunderstorms south across these areas. Tonight, expect low
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Upper ridging will build east over the region Wednesday through the
end of the week while a closed upper low enters the CA coast,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region by the
weekend. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds expected
tomorrow then southerly winds return as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As a result, the warming trend will continue
through Friday with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by
Friday afternoon. Areas along the Rio Grande Valley may approach the
century mark.

Low level moisture will be on the increase Thursday and more so
Friday as modest southeast winds increase. A weak dryline will form
on Friday and although thunderstorm parameters will not be ideal, we
may get enough heating during the afternoon for some isolated
convection near the dryline. Better chances for severe thunderstorms
will be Saturday afternoon near a sharpening dryline and then in the
evening as the dryline retreats westward. West winds will increase
across the region Sunday morning, shunting moisture and rain chances
east for the day. The dryline looks to retreat once again Sunday
evening, returning thunderstorm chances to eastern zones. The upper
low will slowly lift northeast Monday, ending rain chances through
mid week. Otherwise, near or slightly above normal temperatures
expected this weekend through the beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  82  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  76  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  86  52  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10

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