383
FXUS64 KMAF 160517
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AT ALL TAF SITES THURSDAY
MORNING REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. 67
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
THE CUT OFF LOW THAT BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION YESTERDAY CONTINUES ITS SLOW MARCH TO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY. MEANWHILE A LITTLE WEAK PIECE OF ENERGY HAS BEEN ROUNDING
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAY RESULT IN A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE
ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SO
FAR NOTHING OF INTEREST HAS DEVELOPED HOWEVER THIS MAY CHANGE AS
WE APPROACH PEAK HEATING HERE IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AND WOULD ONLY BRIEFLY
AFFECT THE CWA BEFORE MOVING EAST.
CONDITIONS ARE WARMER TODAY WITH TEMPERATURE READINGS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 90S BY MID AFTERNOON...HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS. WE WILL HEAT UP FURTHER TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER RIDGING SETTLES IN OVER THE REGION AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 ON BOTH DAYS. LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
WILL SEE HIGHS NEAR AND AROUND 105.
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH
THE ROCKIES RESULTING IN SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE
WEEKEND. MOST UPPER LEVEL FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH
HOWEVER THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
THE DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING. FOR NOW...KEPT PREVIOUS MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS SHOULD LOWER HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES. UNFORTUNATELY NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST WITH THIS
FRONT ATTM.
FIRE WEATHER...
VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT MID/HI CLOUD HAS DEVELOPED INTO
THE GUADALUPES/VAN HORN AND THE HWY 54 CORRIDOR...PLAYING HOB W/THE
RED FLAG WARNING THERE. TRENDS SHOW CLOUD COVER PERSISTING FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...WHICH WILL INHIBIT MIXING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AT
BEST...AND ITS HARD TO SEE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS PERSISTING AT
ANY ONE LOCATION FOR 3 HOURS. THUS...HAVE CANCELLED THE RFW.
HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER LOOKS A LITTLE THINNER THURSDAY...AND CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN THE GUADALUPES IN
PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. WE/LL ISSUE A WATCH.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM MDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
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