496
FXUS64 KMAF 241733
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION REMAINS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WILL ISSUE AMENDMENTS IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPEQ. NOT REALLY CONVINCED OF
THIS JUST YET AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY EVENING. MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVED SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH SEVERAL INCHES FALLING FROM
SNYDER TO BIG SPRING TO BIG LAKE. ALL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY HAMPER CONVECTIVE CHANCES A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE S/W, THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. WITH THAT SAID,
EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAINLY AFTER LUNCHTIME. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
TODAY...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAIN.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
STORM COVERAGE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING CAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. MODELS THEN DISAGREE A BIT ON THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WX PATTERN. THE ECMWF EJECTS A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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