258
FXUS64 KMAF 181954
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A COOL START TO THE MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 60S...THANKS TO
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY INCREASED TO THE
LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT WITH
DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY
SAGGING INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN PER 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. WE COULD
GET SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THINK THE ATMOSPHERE MAY A LITTLE WORKED
OVER FROM YESTERDAY SO CHANCES ARE SMALL. THINK THE BEST CHANCE IS
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAIN REGION WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW AT
THE SURFACE AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAIN.
GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TOMORROW THEN TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST AS THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER MEXICO BUILDS
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO. FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
GENERATE QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST ZONES COINCIDING WITH A MID LEVEL
THETA E AXIS AND A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
WILL INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 90S WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE PECOS AND RIO
GRANDE RIVER VALLEYS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES BY
THE WEEKEND AS THE STRONG THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 72 98 72 95 / 20 0 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 72 97 73 97 / 20 0 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 71 101 72 101 / 10 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 76 97 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 73 99 73 96 / 20 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 70 94 69 94 / 10 30 30 30
HOBBS NM 69 97 69 96 / 20 10 10 20
MARFA TX 61 92 61 92 / 30 20 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 73 98 74 97 / 10 0 10 0
ODESSA TX 74 99 75 97 / 10 0 10 10
WINK TX 74 101 73 100 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/49
786
FXUS64 KMAF 181731
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS
MAINLY AROUND CNM BUT TOO LOW FOR INCLUDING IN TAFS. SE WINDS
MOSTLY 10-15 KTS WITH SFC TROF TO THE W.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHRTWV TROF MOVING THRU CENTRAL TX WITH MINOR
SHRTWV TROF QUICKLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. PRIMARY MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS HAS ALSO SHIFTED E AND THIS FAR S ACROSS SE
NM/PB THE EML AROUND 7H HAS BEEN COOLED AND 7H-5H LR/S AREN/T AS
STEEP AS YESTERDAY AND COOLER TEMPS EXTEND DOWN THE COLUMN INTO THE
SFC/NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER TOO. RUC/NAM 7H-5H OMEGA SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHRTWV TROF. LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE TRANS PECOS MTNS AND STEEPER LR/S THERE THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED
AREA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SLGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS HAS BEEN
LIFTED N OUT OF THE AREA AND TEND TO AGREE. 12Z NAM12 IS STINGY WITH
PRECIP TODAY AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL UPDATE POP/WX GRIDD TO REDUCE
POPS ACROSS THE PB AND REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. UPDATES OUT SOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR SO THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BURN OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
595
FXUS64 KMAF 181519
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1019 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN SHRTWV TROF MOVING THRU CENTRAL TX WITH MINOR
SHRTWV TROF QUICKLY MOVING SE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. PRIMARY MID
LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS HAS ALSO SHIFTED E AND THIS FAR S ACROSS SE
NM/PB THE EML AROUND 7H HAS BEEN COOLED AND 7H-5H LR/S AREN/T AS
STEEP AS YESTERDAY AND COOLER TEMPS EXTEND DOWN THE COLUMN INTO THE
SFC/NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER TOO. RUC/NAM 7H-5H OMEGA SHOWS SUBSIDENCE
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE OF PRIMARY SHRTWV TROF. LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL HOLD IN PLACE AND WITH UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE TRANS PECOS MTNS AND STEEPER LR/S THERE THAT WILL BE THE FAVORED
AREA FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SLGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS HAS BEEN
LIFTED N OUT OF THE AREA AND TEND TO AGREE. 12Z NAM12 IS STINGY WITH
PRECIP TODAY AS WELL. FOR NOW WILL UPDATE POP/WX GRIDD TO REDUCE
POPS ACROSS THE PB AND REMOVE SEVERE WORDING. UPDATES OUT SOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR SO THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BURN OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 94 71 96 71 / 30 30 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 89 73 95 74 / 30 30 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 95 70 101 70 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 95 73 96 76 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 95 71 99 72 / 20 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 95 67 94 70 / 20 20 30 30
HOBBS NM 92 67 96 69 / 20 20 10 10
MARFA TX 88 59 92 61 / 40 40 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 94 71 96 73 / 20 20 0 10
ODESSA TX 94 72 96 75 / 20 20 0 10
WINK TX 97 71 102 71 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
456
FXUS64 KMAF 181117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR AN HOUR OR SO THIS MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BURN OFF
LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO TRACK DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE CENTER BUILDS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THIS RIDGE WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST.
A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST EVENING AND
EXITED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS PRODUCED
HEAVY RAIN WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES REPORTED AT FLUVANNA AND OVER 3
INCHES AT GAIL. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINED ON
RADAR AS OF 08Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH E/SE FLOW. THE COMBINATION
OF DEWPTS IN THE 60S... DAYTIME HEATING.... AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BOTH ETA AND GFS
SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING DOWN INTO AREA EARLY TODAY WITH ETA
PUSHING IT FARTHER INTO THE REGION... THIS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE THE FIRST TO
SEE CONVECTION TODAY. A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FOR TODAY LATEST SWODY1 HAS SE NEW MEXICO AND NRN PERMIAN BASIN IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE.
COULD SEE SOME SVR STORMS MAINLY NORTH WITH DAMAGING WIND... MINOR
FLOODING AND A LITTLE HAIL. PW DOES REMAIN HIGH SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. ETA DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AS OF MIDDAY TODAY. MODEL QPF DOES DEVELOP RAIN OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS THAT MOVES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN BEFORE MIDDAY TODAY
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU. WILL LEAVE IN MORNING
POPS NORTH AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER JEFF DAVIS... PRESIDIO...
AND BREWSTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE WIDESPREAD RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BUT RAIN COOLED
AIR HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE DAY. EXPECT TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH LOWER 850MB TEMPS AND MORE EASTERLY
FLOW. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR NE PERMIAN BASIN COOLER TODAY DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S. MAY SEE SOME 100S OUT WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
081
FXUS64 KMAF 180900
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO ALLOWING DISTURBANCES TO TRACK DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THE RIDGE CENTER BUILDS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. THE TROUGH WILL BE UNABLE TO DISLODGE THIS RIDGE WHICH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST.
A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION LAST EVENING AND
EXITED THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS PRODUCED
HEAVY RAIN WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES REPORTED AT FLUVANNA AND OVER 3
INCHES AT GAIL. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINED ON
RADAR AS OF 08Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH WITH E/SE FLOW. THE COMBINATION
OF DEWPTS IN THE 60S... DAYTIME HEATING.... AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AGAIN TODAY. BOTH ETA AND GFS
SHOW A WEAK BOUNDARY SAGGING DOWN INTO AREA EARLY TODAY WITH ETA
PUSHING IT FARTHER INTO THE REGION... THIS COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE THE MOUNTAINS COULD BE THE FIRST TO
SEE CONVECTION TODAY. A LOW CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FOR TODAY LATEST SWODY1 HAS SE NEW MEXICO AND NRN PERMIAN BASIN IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY WITH GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE.
COULD SEE SOME SVR STORMS MAINLY NORTH WITH DAMAGING WIND... MINOR
FLOODING AND A LITTLE HAIL. PW DOES REMAIN HIGH SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN POSSIBLE. ETA DOES SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS AS OF MIDDAY TODAY. MODEL QPF DOES DEVELOP RAIN OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS THAT MOVES INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN BEFORE MIDDAY TODAY
WITH STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE MARFA PLATEAU. WILL LEAVE IN MORNING
POPS NORTH AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS OVER JEFF DAVIS... PRESIDIO...
AND BREWSTER COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE WIDESPREAD RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BUT RAIN COOLED
AIR HAS RESULTED IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER START TO THE DAY. EXPECT TO
BE A LITTLE COOLER TODAY WITH LOWER 850MB TEMPS AND MORE EASTERLY
FLOW. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS FOR NE PERMIAN BASIN COOLER TODAY DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN THERE OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
70S. MAY SEE SOME 100S OUT WEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 94 71 96 71 / 30 30 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 89 73 95 74 / 30 30 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 95 70 101 70 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 95 73 96 76 / 10 10 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 95 71 99 72 / 20 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 95 67 94 70 / 20 20 30 30
HOBBS NM 92 67 96 69 / 20 20 10 10
MARFA TX 88 59 92 61 / 40 40 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 94 71 96 73 / 20 20 0 10
ODESSA TX 94 72 96 75 / 20 20 0 10
WINK TX 97 71 102 71 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/72
098
FXUS64 KMAF 180438
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1138 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
SENT AN UPDATE TO LOWER POPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES INTO THE BIG COUNTRY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST OF THE TERMINALS. COULD
SEE SOME MVFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING FOR A FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WITH TIMING REMAINING UNCERTAIN
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
024
FXUS64 KMAF 180014
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
714 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AFTER COORD WITH SPC HAVE INCLUDED REEVES COUNTY AND REMAINDER OF
THE PB IN THE SEVERE TSTM WATCH #323. ALSO HAVE INCREASED POPS
BASED ON LATEST RADAR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY...ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE AT TAF LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER
06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIMITED VISIBILITY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 06Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH #323 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 04Z FOR SE NM AND
ALL OF THE PB NORTH OF I-20. NO CHANGE FROM DISCUSSION BELOW.
ADDITIONAL PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY NW-SE ACROSS THE PB WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG/NEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS RICH (DWPNTS OF
M60S ACROSS PB) AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LR/S PER EML SB CAPES ARE
ABOVE 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS CONVERGING INVOF WRN PB/SE NM
AND ONCE TEMPS GET INTO THE M90S CAP IS EXPECTED BREAK ALLOWING
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PB. ALSO A MINOR SHRTWV TROF ROUNDING
NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SERVE TO COOL TEMPS AROUND 5H AND PROVIDE
ADDITIVE LIFT. 12Z NAM12 QPF AGREES WITH AND HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
FARTHER S INTO THE PB AS EARLY AS 21Z (INDICATIVE OF WEAK TO NO
CAP). SAID CAPES AND BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS ACROSS PB WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE INCLUDE FOR PB AND TRANS
PECOS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN CONCERN BUT AN ISOLD
TORNADO CAN/T BE RULED EITHER. MEANWHILE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
FAVORED TO COME OUT THE NE NM HIGHLANDS INTO WX TX PLAINS AND MAY
RESULT IN SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS EARLY TUE AM ACRS THE NRN CWFA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TUE PM IN PERSISTENT NW MID
LEVEL FLOW. THESE STORM WOULD BE FAVORED TO MOVE THRU THE N-NE
CWFA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS EARLY TUE AM
ACROSS THE N-NE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER.
SLGHT CHC TO CHC TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE DAVIS MTNS
REGARDLESS TUE PM. TIMING OF CONVECTION TUE WILL MAKE TEMPS FCST
DIFFICULT AND WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR 2 FOR NOW.
STRONGER PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SIGNAL DOWNTURN IN POPS
AND THOSE BEING CONFINED TO THE W ON WRN SIDE OF RIDGE FOR
WED/THUR. PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO SIGNAL WARMER WITH
HIGHS TEMPS EASILY BACK TO 95-100 ACROSS PB. SOME HINTS THAT MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FAR E FRI-SUN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
LITTLE COOLER TEMPS AND LOW PROBABILITY POPS BACK INTO THE WRN
AREAS WITH ECMWF EVEN MORESO FOR MONDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
391
FXUS64 KMAF 172346
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
646 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SEVERE WEATHER ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN LEA
COUNTY...ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE AT TAF LOCATIONS UNTIL AFTER
06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LIMITED VISIBILITY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH 06Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH #323 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 04Z FOR SE NM AND
ALL OF THE PB NORTH OF I-20. NO CHANGE FROM DISCUSSION BELOW.
ADDITIONAL PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY NW-SE ACROSS THE PB WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG/NEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS RICH (DWPNTS OF
M60S ACROSS PB) AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LR/S PER EML SB CAPES ARE
ABOVE 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS CONVERGING INVOF WRN PB/SE NM
AND ONCE TEMPS GET INTO THE M90S CAP IS EXPECTED BREAK ALLOWING
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PB. ALSO A MINOR SHRTWV TROF ROUNDING
NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SERVE TO COOL TEMPS AROUND 5H AND PROVIDE
ADDITIVE LIFT. 12Z NAM12 QPF AGREES WITH AND HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
FARTHER S INTO THE PB AS EARLY AS 21Z (INDICATIVE OF WEAK TO NO
CAP). SAID CAPES AND BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS ACROSS PB WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE INCLUDE FOR PB AND TRANS
PECOS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN CONCERN BUT AN ISOLD
TORNADO CAN/T BE RULED EITHER. MEANWHILE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
FAVORED TO COME OUT THE NE NM HIGHLANDS INTO WX TX PLAINS AND MAY
RESULT IN SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS EARLY TUE AM ACRS THE NRN CWFA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TUE PM IN PERSISTENT NW MID
LEVEL FLOW. THESE STORM WOULD BE FAVORED TO MOVE THRU THE N-NE
CWFA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS EARLY TUE AM
ACROSS THE N-NE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER.
SLGHT CHC TO CHC TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE DAVIS MTNS
REGARDLESS TUE PM. TIMING OF CONVECTION TUE WILL MAKE TEMPS FCST
DIFFICULT AND WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR 2 FOR NOW.
STRONGER PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SIGNAL DOWNTURN IN POPS
AND THOSE BEING CONFINED TO THE W ON WRN SIDE OF RIDGE FOR
WED/THUR. PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO SIGNAL WARMER WITH
HIGHS TEMPS EASILY BACK TO 95-100 ACROSS PB. SOME HINTS THAT MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FAR E FRI-SUN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
LITTLE COOLER TEMPS AND LOW PROBABILITY POPS BACK INTO THE WRN
AREAS WITH ECMWF EVEN MORESO FOR MONDAY.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03
521
FXUS64 KMAF 172110
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE TSTM WATCH #323 HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 04Z FOR SE NM AND
ALL OF THE PB NORTH OF I-20. NO CHANGE FROM DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY NW-SE ACROSS THE PB WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG/NEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS RICH (DWPNTS OF
M60S ACROSS PB) AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LR/S PER EML SB CAPES ARE
ABOVE 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS CONVERGING INVOF WRN PB/SE NM
AND ONCE TEMPS GET INTO THE M90S CAP IS EXPECTED BREAK ALLOWING
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PB. ALSO A MINOR SHRTWV TROF ROUNDING
NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SERVE TO COOL TEMPS AROUND 5H AND PROVIDE
ADDITIVE LIFT. 12Z NAM12 QPF AGREES WITH AND HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
FARTHER S INTO THE PB AS EARLY AS 21Z (INDICATIVE OF WEAK TO NO
CAP). SAID CAPES AND BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS ACROSS PB WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE INCLUDE FOR PB AND TRANS
PECOS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN CONCERN BUT AN ISOLD
TORNADO CAN/T BE RULED EITHER. MEANWHILE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
FAVORED TO COME OUT THE NE NM HIGHLANDS INTO WX TX PLAINS AND MAY
RESULT IN SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS EARLY TUE AM ACRS THE NRN CWFA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TUE PM IN PERSISTENT NW MID
LEVEL FLOW. THESE STORM WOULD BE FAVORED TO MOVE THRU THE N-NE
CWFA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS EARLY TUE AM
ACROSS THE N-NE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER.
SLGHT CHC TO CHC TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE DAVIS MTNS
REGARDLESS TUE PM. TIMING OF CONVECTION TUE WILL MAKE TEMPS FCST
DIFFICULT AND WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR 2 FOR NOW.
STRONGER PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SIGNAL DOWNTURN IN POPS
AND THOSE BEING CONFINED TO THE W ON WRN SIDE OF RIDGE FOR
WED/THUR. PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO SIGNAL WARMER WITH
HIGHS TEMPS EASILY BACK TO 95-100 ACROSS PB. SOME HINTS THAT MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FAR E FRI-SUN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
LITTLE COOLER TEMPS AND LOW PROBABILITY POPS BACK INTO THE WRN
AREAS WITH ECMWF EVEN MORESO FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 70 94 72 97 / 30 20 20 10
BIG SPRING TX 73 94 75 97 / 40 30 30 0
CARLSBAD NM 68 98 71 102 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 75 97 74 97 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 71 98 73 100 / 20 20 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 69 95 68 95 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 91 68 98 / 30 20 20 10
MARFA TX 62 91 61 94 / 20 30 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 71 95 73 97 / 30 20 20 0
ODESSA TX 73 95 75 97 / 20 20 20 10
WINK TX 72 100 72 103 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
339
FXUS64 KMAF 171911
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SFC BOUNDARY NW-SE ACROSS THE PB WILL BE A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP
CONVECTION TO FORM ALONG/NEAR TODAY. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS RICH (DWPNTS OF
M60S ACROSS PB) AND WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LR/S PER EML SB CAPES ARE
ABOVE 2500 J/KG. LOW LEVEL MSTR IS CONVERGING INVOF WRN PB/SE NM
AND ONCE TEMPS GET INTO THE M90S CAP IS EXPECTED BREAK ALLOWING
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PB. ALSO A MINOR SHRTWV TROF ROUNDING
NW MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SERVE TO COOL TEMPS AROUND 5H AND PROVIDE
ADDITIVE LIFT. 12Z NAM12 QPF AGREES WITH AND HAS DEVELOPED PRECIP
FARTHER S INTO THE PB AS EARLY AS 21Z (INDICATIVE OF WEAK TO NO
CAP). SAID CAPES AND BULK SHEAR OF 25-35KTS ACROSS PB WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HAVE INCLUDE FOR PB AND TRANS
PECOS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ARE THE MAIN CONCERN BUT AN ISOLD
TORNADO CAN/T BE RULED EITHER. MEANWHILE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS
FAVORED TO COME OUT THE NE NM HIGHLANDS INTO WX TX PLAINS AND MAY
RESULT IN SECOND ROUND OF TSTMS EARLY TUE AM ACRS THE NRN CWFA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE TUE PM IN PERSISTENT NW MID
LEVEL FLOW. THESE STORM WOULD BE FAVORED TO MOVE THRU THE N-NE
CWFA LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN COULD BE
SEVERE. HOWEVER IF THERE IS A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS EARLY TUE AM
ACROSS THE N-NE IT MAY BE DIFFICULT FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER.
SLGHT CHC TO CHC TSTMS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE DAVIS MTNS
REGARDLESS TUE PM. TIMING OF CONVECTION TUE WILL MAKE TEMPS FCST
DIFFICULT AND WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN JUST A DEGREE OR 2 FOR NOW.
STRONGER PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SIGNAL DOWNTURN IN POPS
AND THOSE BEING CONFINED TO THE W ON WRN SIDE OF RIDGE FOR
WED/THUR. PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALSO SIGNAL WARMER WITH
HIGHS TEMPS EASILY BACK TO 95-100 ACROSS PB. SOME HINTS THAT MID
LEVEL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP FAR E FRI-SUN WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A
LITTLE COOLER TEMPS AND LOW PROBABILITY POPS BACK INTO THE WRN
AREAS WITH ECMWF EVEN MORESO FOR MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 70 94 72 97 / 30 20 20 10
BIG SPRING TX 73 94 75 97 / 40 30 30 0
CARLSBAD NM 68 98 71 102 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 75 97 74 97 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 71 98 73 100 / 20 20 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 69 95 68 95 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 91 68 98 / 30 20 20 10
MARFA TX 62 91 61 94 / 20 30 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 71 95 73 97 / 30 20 20 0
ODESSA TX 73 95 75 97 / 20 20 20 10
WINK TX 72 100 72 103 / 20 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
912
FXUS64 KMAF 171716
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CURRENTLY WINDS ARE LIGHT AND THERE ARE NO VSBY OR CIGS
RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON TODAY AND PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. CANNOT CURRENTLY PINPOINT AN EXACT TIME
CONVECTION WILL AFFECT SITES SO FOR NOW JUST INCLUDED A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 1721/1801 INSTEAD OF A PREVAILING. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
VERY GUSTY/STRONG IN THE VICINITY OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GENERALLY KHOB/KMAF AND MAYBE EVEN KINK. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH AND LARGE HAIL. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BE A PROBLEM AS WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SINKS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A
FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
NOT QUITE SURE WHERE THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
BUT BEST THINKING IS IT WILL BE ORIENTED NEAR A SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE ADDITION OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...PACKAGE WAS SENT AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH THE SAME SETUP WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TODAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ROOSTING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, AND A
STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION VIA SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. AN MCS CONTINUED TO TREK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RED RIVER, WITH A SMALLER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EACH SET OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE
REGION LATER TODAY, ALONG WITH A FEW MORE LATENT ONES FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR
SETUP WILL BE VERY MUCH THE SAME, THERE IS ONE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCE, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO
AS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, NEW
MEXICO, AND EVEN FAR WEST TEXAS. THE RESULTANT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE MENTIONED
WAVES, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE, BUT CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND
TROPICAL AIRMASS, DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT.
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRESENT A PROBLEM SINCE THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL ALSO DUMP AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR RAINFALL. LATER TONIGHT, AN
MCS COULD CLIP THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, WITH A LINE OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN A SIMILAR POSITION AND THE MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL
OVER THE AREA. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON HOW
THINGS PAN OUT TODAY, BUT THINK THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN/
CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN WHERE A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MAY LIE WILL BE
FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONTINUES EASTWARD THEREAFTER. SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER RIDGE
IS TRANSIENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND, EVEN MORESO
THAN LATE THIS WEEK. SOME KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE OTHERS
SHIFT IT INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT LOW ORDER POPS
OVER THE WEST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND TEMPS HOT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHETHER ANOTHER UPPER LOW IMPINGES UPON THE
AREA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FURTHER EAST UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
156
FXUS64 KMAF 171527
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1027 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED A QUICK UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH SINKS FARTHER
SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A
FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
NOT QUITE SURE WHERE THE EXACT POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
BUT BEST THINKING IS IT WILL BE ORIENTED NEAR A SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN LINE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE ADDITION OF LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. OTHERWISE...PACKAGE WAS SENT AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
MADE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AT KMAF THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR ANTICIPATED AREAL EXTENT OF
STORMS TO MENTION TSRA IN A TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUP. DID INCLUDE
HOWEVER A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN TSRA AT THE
TERMINALS IN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME.
12
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH THE SAME SETUP WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TODAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ROOSTING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, AND A
STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION VIA SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. AN MCS CONTINUED TO TREK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RED RIVER, WITH A SMALLER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EACH SET OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE
REGION LATER TODAY, ALONG WITH A FEW MORE LATENT ONES FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR
SETUP WILL BE VERY MUCH THE SAME, THERE IS ONE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCE, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO
AS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, NEW
MEXICO, AND EVEN FAR WEST TEXAS. THE RESULTANT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE MENTIONED
WAVES, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE, BUT CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND
TROPICAL AIRMASS, DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT.
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRESENT A PROBLEM SINCE THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL ALSO DUMP AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR RAINFALL. LATER TONIGHT, AN
MCS COULD CLIP THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, WITH A LINE OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN A SIMILAR POSITION AND THE MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL
OVER THE AREA. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON HOW
THINGS PAN OUT TODAY, BUT THINK THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN/
CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN WHERE A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MAY LIE WILL BE
FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONTINUES EASTWARD THEREAFTER. SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER RIDGE
IS TRANSIENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND, EVEN MORESO
THAN LATE THIS WEEK. SOME KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE OTHERS
SHIFT IT INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT LOW ORDER POPS
OVER THE WEST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND TEMPS HOT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHETHER ANOTHER UPPER LOW IMPINGES UPON THE
AREA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FURTHER EAST UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 70 96 71 / 40 30 20 20
BIG SPRING TX 99 72 96 74 / 40 40 30 30
CARLSBAD NM 100 68 100 70 / 30 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 97 75 96 74 / 30 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 71 98 72 / 50 20 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 91 69 97 69 / 40 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 94 67 93 67 / 30 20 20 20
MARFA TX 90 59 93 60 / 50 20 30 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 96 71 97 72 / 40 20 20 20
ODESSA TX 96 73 97 74 / 40 20 20 20
WINK TX 100 72 101 71 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/49
344
FXUS64 KMAF 171117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AT KMAF THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DID
NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR ANTICIPATED AREAL EXTENT OF
STORMS TO MENTION TSRA IN A TEMPO OR PREVAILING GROUP. DID INCLUDE
HOWEVER A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN TSRA AT THE
TERMINALS IN THE 21Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MUCH THE SAME SETUP WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TODAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ROOSTING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, AND A
STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION VIA SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. AN MCS CONTINUED TO TREK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RED RIVER, WITH A SMALLER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EACH SET OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE
REGION LATER TODAY, ALONG WITH A FEW MORE LATENT ONES FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR
SETUP WILL BE VERY MUCH THE SAME, THERE IS ONE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCE, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO
AS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, NEW
MEXICO, AND EVEN FAR WEST TEXAS. THE RESULTANT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE MENTIONED
WAVES, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE, BUT CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND
TROPICAL AIRMASS, DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT.
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRESENT A PROBLEM SINCE THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL ALSO DUMP AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR RAINFALL. LATER TONIGHT, AN
MCS COULD CLIP THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, WITH A LINE OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN A SIMILAR POSITION AND THE MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL
OVER THE AREA. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON HOW
THINGS PAN OUT TODAY, BUT THINK THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN/
CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN WHERE A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MAY LIE WILL BE
FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONTINUES EASTWARD THEREAFTER. SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER RIDGE
IS TRANSIENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND, EVEN MORESO
THAN LATE THIS WEEK. SOME KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE OTHERS
SHIFT IT INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT LOW ORDER POPS
OVER THE WEST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND TEMPS HOT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHETHER ANOTHER UPPER LOW IMPINGES UPON THE
AREA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FURTHER EAST UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 70 96 71 / 40 30 20 20
BIG SPRING TX 99 72 96 74 / 40 40 30 30
CARLSBAD NM 100 68 100 70 / 30 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 97 75 96 74 / 30 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 71 98 72 / 50 20 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 91 69 97 69 / 40 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 94 67 93 67 / 30 20 20 20
MARFA TX 90 59 93 60 / 50 20 30 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 96 71 97 72 / 40 20 20 20
ODESSA TX 96 73 97 74 / 40 20 20 20
WINK TX 100 72 101 71 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/67
858
FXUS64 KMAF 170921
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
421 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH THE SAME SETUP WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TODAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE ROOSTING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO, AND A
STEADY FEED OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION VIA SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS. AN MCS CONTINUED TO TREK SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AND ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE RED RIVER, WITH A SMALLER CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DECREASING IN INTENSITY OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EACH SET OF STORMS WILL LIKELY RESIDE OVER THE
REGION LATER TODAY, ALONG WITH A FEW MORE LATENT ONES FROM
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER AIR
SETUP WILL BE VERY MUCH THE SAME, THERE IS ONE FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL
DIFFERENCE, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO
AS A FEW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSE THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, NEW
MEXICO, AND EVEN FAR WEST TEXAS. THE RESULTANT DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT
WILL COMBINE WITH THE MID LEVEL SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE MENTIONED
WAVES, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 8 C/KM AND SBCAPE VALUES
IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE TO SPARK SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE, BUT CONSIDERING THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND
TROPICAL AIRMASS, DO NOT ANTICIPATE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT.
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRESENT A PROBLEM SINCE THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL ALSO DUMP AN INCH OR MORE PER HOUR RAINFALL. LATER TONIGHT, AN
MCS COULD CLIP THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, WITH A LINE OR
CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN A SIMILAR POSITION AND THE MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS STILL
OVER THE AREA. COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON HOW
THINGS PAN OUT TODAY, BUT THINK THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NORTHERN/
CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN WHERE A RESIDUAL BOUNDARY MAY LIE WILL BE
FAVORED FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY, BUT CONTINUES EASTWARD THEREAFTER. SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE UPPER RIDGE
IS TRANSIENT. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIVERGE THIS WEEKEND, EVEN MORESO
THAN LATE THIS WEEK. SOME KEEP THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WHILE OTHERS
SHIFT IT INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT LOW ORDER POPS
OVER THE WEST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK AND TEMPS HOT. LATER SHIFTS
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WHETHER ANOTHER UPPER LOW IMPINGES UPON THE
AREA AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A FURTHER EAST UPPER RIDGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 70 96 71 / 40 30 20 20
BIG SPRING TX 99 72 96 74 / 40 40 30 30
CARLSBAD NM 100 68 100 70 / 30 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 97 75 96 74 / 30 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 71 98 72 / 50 20 20 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 91 69 97 69 / 40 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 94 67 93 67 / 30 20 20 20
MARFA TX 90 59 93 60 / 50 20 30 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 96 71 97 72 / 40 20 20 20
ODESSA TX 96 73 97 74 / 40 20 20 20
WINK TX 100 72 101 71 / 30 20 20 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/67
216
FXUS64 KMAF 170508
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1208 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT THE
TERMINALS. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS
AT KMAF...KINK...KHOB IN THE 11Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP AT EACH TERMINAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18Z TO 01Z.
12
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOSING UP INTO W TX/ERN NM WITH WEAK NW MID
LEVEL FLOW THE RESULT. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MST
AXIS AND IS SEEN AS A 5H THETA-E RIDGE IN MODEL DATA ACROSS THE W.
THIS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WIND/STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS FAVORED STORMS
INITIATING IN THE HIER TERRAIN WHERE MID LEVEL CAP LESS OF A FACTOR.
STEERING WIND WILL FAVOR STORMS TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS.
SOUNDINGS ARE WELL MIXED THRU 65H ACRS SE NM WITH A 25-30F T/TD
SPREAD AGAIN SUGGESTING GUSTY WINDS IN ASSOCN WITH MORE OF A
HYBRID TYPE OF MICROBURST SIGNATURE. 7H TEMPS ARE VERY WARM TODAY
(15C ON MAF 12Z SOUNDING) AND AS/IF STORMS MOVE INTO PLAINS/PB LATE
PM/EVENING EXPECT THAT THEY WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE BUT COULD PUSH
OUT SOME WIND. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EWD MORE SO MONDAY WITH NW MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING. THE
PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW-NE CWFA AND LOW
LEVEL MSTR FAVORS TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PB MON PM. 7H TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY AND BASICALLY ALL MODELS SUGGEST ISOLD-
SCT STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN CWFA INTO THE FAR SWRN CWFA PARTIALLY
ALONG/WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPS OF 95-100 EXPECTED STORM INITIATION WONT BE HARD TO
COME BY. CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25KTS SUPPORTS
STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS. FCST MOSTLY CAPTURES THIS SCENARIO AND
WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER E ACROSS THE
N BEFORE 00Z. BY TUE STORMS ARE MOST FAVORED IN N-NE AREAS WITHIN NW
FLOW AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SFC BOUNDARY. BY WED EML BECOMES OVER
POWERING AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO A SMALLER AREA IN THE
MTNS. THUR/FRI ECMWF DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE NM WITHIN THE
NRN EXTENT OF MINOR THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. SEEMS OPTIMISTIC AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY. GENERAL IDEA IN MODELS DATA IS THE CENTER OF
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE INVOF ERN OK AND HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN A
FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR A LONG FETCH OF SW MID LEVEL
FLOW AND IF IT PERSIST IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO STREAM OF
HIER MID/UPPER LEVEL THETA-E AIR RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE W.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 72 97 70 95 / 20 30 50 20
BIG SPRING TX 73 97 71 95 / 20 20 50 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 99 68 101 / 30 30 40 10
DRYDEN TX 75 95 73 97 / 10 10 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 72 98 71 99 / 10 30 40 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 93 69 97 / 40 30 40 10
HOBBS NM 67 95 67 97 / 40 30 40 20
MARFA TX 62 92 59 93 / 30 50 40 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 71 96 71 95 / 10 20 40 20
ODESSA TX 72 96 73 95 / 10 30 40 20
WINK TX 72 102 72 99 / 10 30 40 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
923
FXUS64 KMAF 162329
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT INK AND PEQ. LOW CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. MAF HAS THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF SEEING THESE LOW CEILINGS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA SO INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOSING UP INTO W TX/ERN NM WITH WEAK NW MID
LEVEL FLOW THE RESULT. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MST
AXIS AND IS SEEN AS A 5H THETA-E RIDGE IN MODEL DATA ACROSS THE W.
THIS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WIND/STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS FAVORED STORMS
INITIATING IN THE HIER TERRAIN WHERE MID LEVEL CAP LESS OF A FACTOR.
STEERING WIND WILL FAVOR STORMS TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS.
SOUNDINGS ARE WELL MIXED THRU 65H ACRS SE NM WITH A 25-30F T/TD
SPREAD AGAIN SUGGESTING GUSTY WINDS IN ASSOCN WITH MORE OF A
HYBRID TYPE OF MICROBURST SIGNATURE. 7H TEMPS ARE VERY WARM TODAY
(15C ON MAF 12Z SOUNDING) AND AS/IF STORMS MOVE INTO PLAINS/PB LATE
PM/EVENING EXPECT THAT THEY WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE BUT COULD PUSH
OUT SOME WIND. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EWD MORE SO MONDAY WITH NW MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING. THE
PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW-NE CWFA AND LOW
LEVEL MSTR FAVORS TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PB MON PM. 7H TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY AND BASICALLY ALL MODELS SUGGEST ISOLD-
SCT STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN CWFA INTO THE FAR SWRN CWFA PARTIALLY
ALONG/WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPS OF 95-100 EXPECTED STORM INITIATION WONT BE HARD TO
COME BY. CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25KTS SUPPORTS
STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS. FCST MOSTLY CAPTURES THIS SCENARIO AND
WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER E ACROSS THE
N BEFORE 00Z. BY TUE STORMS ARE MOST FAVORED IN N-NE AREAS WITHIN NW
FLOW AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SFC BOUNDARY. BY WED EML BECOMES OVER
POWERING AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO A SMALLER AREA IN THE
MTNS. THUR/FRI ECMWF DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE NM WITHIN THE
NRN EXTENT OF MINOR THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. SEEMS OPTIMISTIC AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY. GENERAL IDEA IN MODELS DATA IS THE CENTER OF
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE INVOF ERN OK AND HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN A
FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR A LONG FETCH OF SW MID LEVEL
FLOW AND IF IT PERSIST IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO STREAM OF
HIER MID/UPPER LEVEL THETA-E AIR RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE W.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
515
FXUS64 KMAF 161906
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
206 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS NOSING UP INTO W TX/ERN NM WITH WEAK NW MID
LEVEL FLOW THE RESULT. MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MST
AXIS AND IS SEEN AS A 5H THETA-E RIDGE IN MODEL DATA ACROSS THE W.
THIS ALONG WITH UPSLOPE WIND/STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS FAVORED STORMS
INITIATING IN THE HIER TERRAIN WHERE MID LEVEL CAP LESS OF A FACTOR.
STEERING WIND WILL FAVOR STORMS TO DRIFT EWD INTO THE PLAINS.
SOUNDINGS ARE WELL MIXED THRU 65H ACRS SE NM WITH A 25-30F T/TD
SPREAD AGAIN SUGGESTING GUSTY WINDS IN ASSOCN WITH MORE OF A
HYBRID TYPE OF MICROBURST SIGNATURE. 7H TEMPS ARE VERY WARM TODAY
(15C ON MAF 12Z SOUNDING) AND AS/IF STORMS MOVE INTO PLAINS/PB LATE
PM/EVENING EXPECT THAT THEY WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE BUT COULD PUSH
OUT SOME WIND. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT EWD MORE SO MONDAY WITH NW MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING. THE
PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW-NE CWFA AND LOW
LEVEL MSTR FAVORS TSTMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PB MON PM. 7H TEMPS
ARE A LITTLE COOLER MONDAY AND BASICALLY ALL MODELS SUGGEST ISOLD-
SCT STORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NRN CWFA INTO THE FAR SWRN CWFA PARTIALLY
ALONG/WITHIN THE MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPS OF 95-100 EXPECTED STORM INITIATION WONT BE HARD TO
COME BY. CAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 25KTS SUPPORTS
STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS. FCST MOSTLY CAPTURES THIS SCENARIO AND
WILL MAKE ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO INCREASE POPS FARTHER E ACROSS THE
N BEFORE 00Z. BY TUE STORMS ARE MOST FAVORED IN N-NE AREAS WITHIN NW
FLOW AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SFC BOUNDARY. BY WED EML BECOMES OVER
POWERING AND PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO A SMALLER AREA IN THE
MTNS. THUR/FRI ECMWF DEVELOPS LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS SE NM WITHIN THE
NRN EXTENT OF MINOR THETA-E RIDGE AXIS. SEEMS OPTIMISTIC AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY. GENERAL IDEA IN MODELS DATA IS THE CENTER OF
RIDGE AXIS WILL BE INVOF ERN OK AND HIGH TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN A
FEW DEGREES. THIS WILL TEND TO FAVOR A LONG FETCH OF SW MID LEVEL
FLOW AND IF IT PERSIST IT WILL HAVE A CHANCE TO TAP INTO STREAM OF
HIER MID/UPPER LEVEL THETA-E AIR RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE W.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 72 97 70 95 / 20 30 50 20
BIG SPRING TX 73 97 71 95 / 20 20 50 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 99 68 101 / 30 30 40 10
DRYDEN TX 75 95 73 97 / 10 10 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 72 98 71 99 / 10 30 40 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 93 69 97 / 40 30 40 10
HOBBS NM 67 95 67 97 / 40 30 40 20
MARFA TX 62 92 59 93 / 30 50 40 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 71 96 71 95 / 10 20 40 20
ODESSA TX 72 96 73 95 / 10 30 40 20
WINK TX 72 102 72 99 / 10 30 40 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
171
FXUS64 KMAF 161728
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PUSHING
SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE GENERALLY WELL
BEHAVED FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE FROM ANY
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS THAT MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. RADAR
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO IS SLOWLY INCREASING HOWEVER
STILL REMAINS LIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN PUSH
SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING KHOB AND KCNM AROUND 16/21Z. WILL INCLUDE A
TEMPO GROUP FOR MENTION OF THUNDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. NOT SURE
IF THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER AFTER MOVING INTO WEST TEXAS
BUT WILL NEED TO AMEND OTHER TAF SITES IF ACTIVITY LOOKS TO AFFECT
THEM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY AND MONDAY AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE OVER THE REGION DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OR EXPAND EASTWARD RAPIDLY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE OR WEST TEXAS. THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...AND AID CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS. HOW MUCH THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OR
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT FURTHER INTO THE AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT IT
APPEARS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING FOR CONVECTION TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL.
ON MONDAY, A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IT WILL
BE HOT MONDAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN SBCAPE ANYWHERE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY BE NEAR TO, OR ALREADY IN, THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SINCE THERE WILL BE SO MUCH INSTABILITY, THE
MENTIONED BOUNDARY, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 7.5 C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA, THINK CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
RATHER AGGRESSIVELY, THEN LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING IF NOT
OVERNIGHT. SINCE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE 20 TO 30KT,
THINK SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PWATS WILL BE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS I9N THE FORECAST TUESDAY,
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE MENTIONED BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS
AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE
FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE REGION, BUT HOW MUCH IS IN QUESTION.
ALSO, THE WHEREABOUTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS
UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PARKING OVER THE AREA, AND
OTHERS HAVING IT CONTINUE EASTWARD SOUTHERN PLAINS, IF NOT
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FORMER WOULD KEEP US HOT
AND DRY, AND THE LATTER WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS, IF NOT MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
BETWEEN THE TWO COMPETING SOLUTIONS ON TEMPS AND PRECIP, WITH LATE
WEEK POPS RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
547
FXUS64 KMAF 161126
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT KMAF AND KHOB THROUGH 15Z.
OTHERWISE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
EAST INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN TSRA AT KCNM AND KHOB FROM 21Z TO 03Z. WILL LEAVE
PROB30 OUT FOR NOW IN THE TERMINALS FURTHER EAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
IN THE EXTENT OF THE EASTWARD PUSH OF STORMS THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
12
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY AND MONDAY AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE OVER THE REGION DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OR EXPAND EASTWARD RAPIDLY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE OR WEST TEXAS. THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...AND AID CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS. HOW MUCH THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OR
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT FURTHER INTO THE AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT IT
APPEARS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING FOR CONVECTION TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL.
ON MONDAY, A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IT WILL
BE HOT MONDAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN SBCAPE ANYWHERE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY BE NEAR TO, OR ALREADY IN, THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SINCE THERE WILL BE SO MUCH INSTABILITY, THE
MENTIONED BOUNDARY, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 7.5 C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA, THINK CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
RATHER AGGRESSIVELY, THEN LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING IF NOT
OVERNIGHT. SINCE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE 20 TO 30KT,
THINK SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PWATS WILL BE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS I9N THE FORECAST TUESDAY,
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE MENTIONED BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS
AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE
FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE REGION, BUT HOW MUCH IS IN QUESTION.
ALSO, THE WHEREABOUTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS
UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PARKING OVER THE AREA, AND
OTHERS HAVING IT CONTINUE EASTWARD SOUTHERN PLAINS, IF NOT
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FORMER WOULD KEEP US HOT
AND DRY, AND THE LATTER WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS, IF NOT MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
BETWEEN THE TWO COMPETING SOLUTIONS ON TEMPS AND PRECIP, WITH LATE
WEEK POPS RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 72 99 70 / 20 20 20 50
BIG SPRING TX 97 73 99 71 / 20 20 20 50
CARLSBAD NM 100 67 100 68 / 30 30 30 40
DRYDEN TX 96 75 96 73 / 10 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 97 73 99 71 / 10 10 30 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 95 67 94 69 / 40 40 40 30
HOBBS NM 94 67 96 67 / 40 40 30 40
MARFA TX 93 63 93 59 / 30 30 50 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 95 71 98 71 / 10 10 20 40
ODESSA TX 98 72 97 73 / 10 10 20 40
WINK TX 101 73 103 72 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/67
852
FXUS64 KMAF 160909
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
409 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TODAY AND MONDAY AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES RISE OVER THE REGION DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN OR EXPAND EASTWARD RAPIDLY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE OR WEST TEXAS. THE FIRST SUCH WAVE WILL TRANSLATE
INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER TODAY...AND AID CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS. HOW MUCH THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST OR
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT FURTHER INTO THE AREA REMAINS TO BE SEEN, BUT IT
APPEARS MID LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE LACKING FOR CONVECTION TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS THE MAIN THREAT,
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL.
ON MONDAY, A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO SUPPORT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IT WILL
BE HOT MONDAY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN SBCAPE ANYWHERE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED FRONTAL OR OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAY BE NEAR TO, OR ALREADY IN, THE NORTHERN CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SINCE THERE WILL BE SO MUCH INSTABILITY, THE
MENTIONED BOUNDARY, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7 TO 7.5 C/KM OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE CWA, THINK CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP
RATHER AGGRESSIVELY, THEN LAST WELL INTO THE EVENING IF NOT
OVERNIGHT. SINCE 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE 20 TO 30KT,
THINK SOME OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS PWATS WILL BE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS I9N THE FORECAST TUESDAY,
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND ALONG THE MENTIONED BOUNDARY
WHICH COULD STILL BE LINGERING OVER THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS
AND NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE
FURTHER EASTWARD OVER THE REGION, BUT HOW MUCH IS IN QUESTION.
ALSO, THE WHEREABOUTS OF THE UPPER RIDGE THURSDAY AND BEYOND IS
UNCERTAIN WITH SOME MEDIUM RANGE MODELS PARKING OVER THE AREA, AND
OTHERS HAVING IT CONTINUE EASTWARD SOUTHERN PLAINS, IF NOT
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE FORMER WOULD KEEP US HOT
AND DRY, AND THE LATTER WOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON
READINGS, IF NOT MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
BETWEEN THE TWO COMPETING SOLUTIONS ON TEMPS AND PRECIP, WITH LATE
WEEK POPS RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 72 99 70 / 20 20 20 50
BIG SPRING TX 97 73 99 71 / 20 20 20 50
CARLSBAD NM 100 67 100 68 / 30 30 30 40
DRYDEN TX 96 75 96 73 / 10 10 10 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 97 73 99 71 / 10 10 30 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 95 67 94 69 / 40 40 40 30
HOBBS NM 94 67 96 67 / 40 40 30 40
MARFA TX 93 63 93 59 / 30 30 50 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 95 71 98 71 / 10 10 20 40
ODESSA TX 98 72 97 73 / 10 10 20 40
WINK TX 101 73 103 72 / 10 10 30 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
12/67
621
FXUS64 KMAF 160450
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1150 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE IS
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENE TO INCLUDE TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 10Z
AND 15Z AT KMAF...KINK AND KHOB. GENERALLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO
15 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
12
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
5H HEIGHTS AND WATER VAPOR INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS JUST E
OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK IN WAKE OF LOW AND MSTR IS
STILL WELL INTO THE WRN AREAS. SUBTLE HINT OF LINGERING MINOR
SHRTWV TROF TO THE W...7H-5H LR/S NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND MST UPSLOPE
FLOW FAVOR MTNS STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. HAVE LEFT 30
PCT IN THE FAR E REMAINDER OF TODAY WHERE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MSTR
IS FOUND AND ISOLD POPS IN THE MTNS WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES
SHOW CU/TCU DEVELOPING. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ENSURE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH M60-U60 DWPNTS POSSIBLE ACRS
THE PB BY 12Z SUNDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK NW AND
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE THAT ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND THEN DRIFT E-SE
INTO ADJACENT PLAINS. AS STORMS DRIFT FROM MTNS INTO PLAINS THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE WELL MIXED AND HOT. T/TD SPREADS NEAR 30F
WILL FAVOR GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SE NM/UPPER TRANS PECOS. LACK
OF IDENTIFIABLE SHRTWV TROF WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO SLIGHT CHC-CHC
WHICH IS IN FCST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED. IT WILL BE WARMER
ALL AREAS. PATTERN IS SIMILAR MONDAY EXCEPT THAT SFC PATTERN IS
BETTER ORGANIZED UNDERNEATH NW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
MAY NEAR THE NRN CWFA. 9H-85H THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EC NM
PLAINS/TX STATE-LINE INTO PB/BIG COUNTRY ALONG/NEAR SAID BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING.
SUFFICIENT CONVECTION MAY HELP BOUNDARY SAG FARTHER S INTO PB. 12Z
MET MOS INDICATES 30 POPS AND MAKES GOOD SENSE WITH THE MODEL QPF
AND PATTERN ITSELF. FCST HAS 30-40 PCT POPS BUT WILL MAKE SOME
CHANGES TO FIT CLOSER TO DESCRIBED BOUNDARY. STILL WARM/SEASONAL
ON MONDAY BUT CLOUDS COULD MAKE IT A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE N.
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N TUE AND DRY AIR PUSHES FARTHER E INTO SE NM
PLAINS/UPPER TRANS PECOS SO WARMER/DRIER. STORMS WILL BE MOST
FAVORED FROM DAVIS MTNS S-SEWD WHERE MSTR HOLDS. WED/THUR THERE IS
MORE OF A PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND WILL MOSTLY DOWNPLAY
PRECIP CHANCE AND KEEP TEMPS HOT... POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FRI-
SAT WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR SRN REACHES OF THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 69 96 72 96 / 10 20 20 30
BIG SPRING TX 69 95 71 96 / 10 20 20 30
CARLSBAD NM 70 98 67 97 / 10 30 30 30
DRYDEN TX 72 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 71 99 73 97 / 10 10 10 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 69 93 67 92 / 20 30 30 40
HOBBS NM 66 95 67 94 / 10 30 30 30
MARFA TX 59 92 63 93 / 10 30 30 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 70 96 71 96 / 10 10 10 20
ODESSA TX 71 98 73 96 / 10 10 10 20
WINK TX 72 98 73 98 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
593
FXUS64 KMAF 152332
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT MAF...HOB AND INK SUNDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CNM AND HOB BUT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
5H HEIGHTS AND WATER VAPOR INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS JUST E
OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK IN WAKE OF LOW AND MSTR IS
STILL WELL INTO THE WRN AREAS. SUBTLE HINT OF LINGERING MINOR
SHRTWV TROF TO THE W...7H-5H LR/S NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND MST UPSLOPE
FLOW FAVOR MTNS STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. HAVE LEFT 30
PCT IN THE FAR E REMAINDER OF TODAY WHERE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MSTR
IS FOUND AND ISOLD POPS IN THE MTNS WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES
SHOW CU/TCU DEVELOPING. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ENSURE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH M60-U60 DWPNTS POSSIBLE ACRS
THE PB BY 12Z SUNDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK NW AND
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE THAT ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND THEN DRIFT E-SE
INTO ADJACENT PLAINS. AS STORMS DRIFT FROM MTNS INTO PLAINS THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE WELL MIXED AND HOT. T/TD SPREADS NEAR 30F
WILL FAVOR GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SE NM/UPPER TRANS PECOS. LACK
OF IDENTIFIABLE SHRTWV TROF WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO SLIGHT CHC-CHC
WHICH IS IN FCST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED. IT WILL BE WARMER
ALL AREAS. PATTERN IS SIMILAR MONDAY EXCEPT THAT SFC PATTERN IS
BETTER ORGANIZED UNDERNEATH NW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
MAY NEAR THE NRN CWFA. 9H-85H THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EC NM
PLAINS/TX STATE-LINE INTO PB/BIG COUNTRY ALONG/NEAR SAID BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING.
SUFFICIENT CONVECTION MAY HELP BOUNDARY SAG FARTHER S INTO PB. 12Z
MET MOS INDICATES 30 POPS AND MAKES GOOD SENSE WITH THE MODEL QPF
AND PATTERN ITSELF. FCST HAS 30-40 PCT POPS BUT WILL MAKE SOME
CHANGES TO FIT CLOSER TO DESCRIBED BOUNDARY. STILL WARM/SEASONAL
ON MONDAY BUT CLOUDS COULD MAKE IT A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE N.
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N TUE AND DRY AIR PUSHES FARTHER E INTO SE NM
PLAINS/UPPER TRANS PECOS SO WARMER/DRIER. STORMS WILL BE MOST
FAVORED FROM DAVIS MTNS S-SEWD WHERE MSTR HOLDS. WED/THUR THERE IS
MORE OF A PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND WILL MOSTLY DOWNPLAY
PRECIP CHANCE AND KEEP TEMPS HOT... POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FRI-
SAT WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR SRN REACHES OF THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
267
FXUS64 KMAF 151914
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
214 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
5H HEIGHTS AND WATER VAPOR INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW IS JUST E
OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAK IN WAKE OF LOW AND MSTR IS
STILL WELL INTO THE WRN AREAS. SUBTLE HINT OF LINGERING MINOR
SHRTWV TROF TO THE W...7H-5H LR/S NEAR 7.5 C/KM AND MST UPSLOPE
FLOW FAVOR MTNS STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS. HAVE LEFT 30
PCT IN THE FAR E REMAINDER OF TODAY WHERE RICHEST LOW LEVEL MSTR
IS FOUND AND ISOLD POPS IN THE MTNS WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE DOES
SHOW CU/TCU DEVELOPING. SE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL ENSURE DEEP LOW
LEVEL MSTR REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH M60-U60 DWPNTS POSSIBLE ACRS
THE PB BY 12Z SUNDAY. MID LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO WEAK NW AND
SEEMS VERY REASONABLE THAT ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES WILL BE SUFFICIENT
FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND THEN DRIFT E-SE
INTO ADJACENT PLAINS. AS STORMS DRIFT FROM MTNS INTO PLAINS THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL BE WELL MIXED AND HOT. T/TD SPREADS NEAR 30F
WILL FAVOR GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY SE NM/UPPER TRANS PECOS. LACK
OF IDENTIFIABLE SHRTWV TROF WILL LIMIT COVERAGE TO SLIGHT CHC-CHC
WHICH IS IN FCST AND LITTLE CHANGE IS NEEDED. IT WILL BE WARMER
ALL AREAS. PATTERN IS SIMILAR MONDAY EXCEPT THAT SFC PATTERN IS
BETTER ORGANIZED UNDERNEATH NW MID LEVEL FLOW AND A WEAK BOUNDARY
MAY NEAR THE NRN CWFA. 9H-85H THETA-E RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EC NM
PLAINS/TX STATE-LINE INTO PB/BIG COUNTRY ALONG/NEAR SAID BOUNDARY WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO BE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING.
SUFFICIENT CONVECTION MAY HELP BOUNDARY SAG FARTHER S INTO PB. 12Z
MET MOS INDICATES 30 POPS AND MAKES GOOD SENSE WITH THE MODEL QPF
AND PATTERN ITSELF. FCST HAS 30-40 PCT POPS BUT WILL MAKE SOME
CHANGES TO FIT CLOSER TO DESCRIBED BOUNDARY. STILL WARM/SEASONAL
ON MONDAY BUT CLOUDS COULD MAKE IT A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE N.
BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N TUE AND DRY AIR PUSHES FARTHER E INTO SE NM
PLAINS/UPPER TRANS PECOS SO WARMER/DRIER. STORMS WILL BE MOST
FAVORED FROM DAVIS MTNS S-SEWD WHERE MSTR HOLDS. WED/THUR THERE IS
MORE OF A PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE ALOFT AND WILL MOSTLY DOWNPLAY
PRECIP CHANCE AND KEEP TEMPS HOT... POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER FRI-
SAT WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS FAR SRN REACHES OF THE
LOWER TRANS PECOS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 69 96 72 96 / 10 20 20 30
BIG SPRING TX 69 95 71 96 / 10 20 20 30
CARLSBAD NM 70 98 67 97 / 10 30 30 30
DRYDEN TX 72 95 73 96 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 71 99 73 97 / 10 10 10 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 69 93 67 92 / 20 30 30 40
HOBBS NM 66 95 67 94 / 10 30 30 30
MARFA TX 59 92 63 93 / 10 30 30 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 70 96 71 96 / 10 10 10 20
ODESSA TX 71 98 73 96 / 10 10 10 20
WINK TX 72 98 73 98 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
418
FXUS64 KMAF 151722
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1222 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE
NO AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT /AOB 10KT/
FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER
ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT DIRECTLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS. OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A COUPLE OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW CIGS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING AT KHOB AND KMAF BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING ANY
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN MOIST UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA AND FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COMBINES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PERMIAN
BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING
STRONGER. FAVORED AREAS FOR ANY STORMS WOULD BE THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
043
FXUS64 KMAF 151059
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
559 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING, BUT MAY NOT FILL IN COMPLETELY BEFORE
HEATING COMMENCES. WILL CARRY PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AT KCNM,
BUT MORE VARIABLE CEILINGS AT THE REST OF THE TAF SITES. CLOUD
BASES SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY 15/16Z, OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN SO
WILL NOT MENTION TSRA IN ANY OF THE TAFS ATTM. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN MOIST UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA AND FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COMBINES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PERMIAN
BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING
STRONGER. FAVORED AREAS FOR ANY STORMS WOULD BE THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 90 68 95 72 / 10 10 20 20
BIG SPRING TX 87 69 93 71 / 30 10 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 92 68 96 66 / 10 10 30 30
DRYDEN TX 87 72 92 73 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 92 71 97 74 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 86 67 91 67 / 10 20 30 30
HOBBS NM 91 65 93 67 / 10 10 30 30
MARFA TX 90 60 90 63 / 20 10 30 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 88 69 94 71 / 20 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 89 70 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
WINK TX 92 71 96 75 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/12
742
FXUS64 KMAF 150854
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE OROGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN MOIST UNSTABLE UPSLOPE
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TODAY BUT STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
ON SUNDAY A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST
AREA AND FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS FORECAST TO BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
PLAINS AND THEN SPREAD EAST WITH THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PERMIAN BASIN SUNDAY EVENING. MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND COMBINES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL PERMIAN
BASIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MUCH MORE ISOLATED DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING
STRONGER. FAVORED AREAS FOR ANY STORMS WOULD BE THE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 90 68 95 72 / 10 10 20 20
BIG SPRING TX 87 69 93 71 / 30 10 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 92 68 96 66 / 10 10 30 30
DRYDEN TX 87 72 92 73 / 20 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 92 71 97 74 / 10 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 86 67 91 67 / 10 20 30 30
HOBBS NM 91 65 93 67 / 10 10 30 30
MARFA TX 90 60 90 63 / 20 10 30 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 88 69 94 71 / 20 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 89 70 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
WINK TX 92 71 96 75 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/12
424
FXUS64 KMAF 150457
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AT 15 MPH THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. HOW FAR SOUTHEAST IT MAKES IT REMAINS TO
BE SEEN SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS AT KHOB AND KINK FOR NOW.
MAY HAVE TO ADD KMAF, BUT IT WOULD BE AT LEAST 15/08Z OR AFTER.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN, AND MAYBE
EVEN IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 15/14Z.
SHOULD SEE THE LOWER DECK SCATTER OUT SATURDAY AROUND 15/17Z AT THE
LATEST WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE RELEGATED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN, OR OVER
THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN. 67
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...
SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON.
&&
$$
401
FXUS64 KMAF 142339
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
639 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
LOCATION AND LOW PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL DIMINISH IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
LAST THROUGH MID MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. A COMPLEX
GROUPING OF (LIKELY) CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MIDLEVEL CIRCULATIONS
EXTENDING FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CHIHUAHUA/NORTHERN COAHUILA/WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING WELL OVER +2 SD OVER CLIMO
OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT SHOW A DEEP MOIST
PROFILE WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE, A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR, AND FAIRLY LOW LCL`S. APPEARS THAT
MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHERE
DEEP LAYER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COINCIDE.
RIGHT NOW, FOR TONIGHT, WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH AND LOCALIZED 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS...TO BE LOCATED
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LAMESA TO MIDLAND/ODESSA TO SANDERSON LINE. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHEAR OUT GRADUALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
SATURDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, AND WE`LL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AREA. THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS MAY LIGHT UP TOO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND WE`VE DRAWN ISOLATED POPS HERE AS WELL. THE PRECIP EVENT WILL DIE
DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN SERVE TO DRIVE A FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS, THERE`LL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEATING AVAILABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ISN`T GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON, BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERION.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...
SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON.
&&
$$
99
574
FXUS64 KMAF 141958
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
258 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS LIKELY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS. A COMPLEX
GROUPING OF (LIKELY) CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED MIDLEVEL CIRCULATIONS
EXTENDING FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
CHIHUAHUA/NORTHERN COAHUILA/WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU IS EXPECTED TO
TRANSLATE NORTH OVERNIGHT. A VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS IS IN PLACE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING WELL OVER +2 SD OVER CLIMO
OVER MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT SHOW A DEEP MOIST
PROFILE WITH TALL/SKINNY CAPE, A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR, AND FAIRLY LOW LCL`S. APPEARS THAT
MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WHERE
DEEP LAYER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL FORCING VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COINCIDE.
RIGHT NOW, FOR TONIGHT, WE EXPECT THE HEAVIEST RAINS...WITH WIDESPREAD
AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH AND LOCALIZED 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS...TO BE LOCATED
ROUGHLY EAST OF A LAMESA TO MIDLAND/ODESSA TO SANDERSON LINE. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES TONIGHT FOR THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN, THE
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS, AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHEAR OUT GRADUALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN
SATURDAY. THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN, AND WE`LL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AREA. THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS MAY LIGHT UP TOO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
AND WE`VE DRAWN ISOLATED POPS HERE AS WELL. THE PRECIP EVENT WILL DIE
DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER FAR WEST
TEXAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL IN TURN SERVE TO DRIVE A FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS, THERE`LL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEATING AVAILABLE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY NIGHT.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ISN`T GOING AWAY ANYTIME SOON, BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS APPROACHING ADVISORY CRITERION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 91 71 95 / 60 10 10 20
BIG SPRING TX 68 89 72 95 / 90 30 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 68 95 69 99 / 20 10 10 30
DRYDEN TX 71 92 73 101 / 80 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 93 73 96 / 60 10 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 64 90 70 94 / 10 10 20 20
HOBBS NM 65 92 67 95 / 40 10 10 30
MARFA TX 61 89 60 91 / 20 20 10 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 68 90 72 95 / 70 20 10 10
ODESSA TX 69 92 72 94 / 70 10 10 20
WINK TX 71 95 74 98 / 50 10 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...
SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON.
&&
$$
49/70
277
FXUS64 KMAF 141717
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED THRU THE NIGHT EVEN OUTSIDE OF
SHRA/TSRA. RADAR DOES SHOW THAT MAINLY SCATTERED SHRA HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA AND NEAR TAF SITES. SCENARIO IS FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
CONTINUING DEVELOPING AND HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE TEMPO SHRA/TSRA GROUPS
BUT TAPERING FROM W TO E INTO THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT. LITTLE CHANGE
IN WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY WIDESPREAD SE WINDS OF 10-15KT EXPECTED.
OUTFLOW WINDS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED/BRIEF CHANGES THOUGH.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...
SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON.
&&
$$
917
FXUS64 KMAF 141102
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH CLOUD ARE STILL PREVALENT OVER THE REGION AFTER
YESTERDAY`S THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH IS IMPEDING MVFR CEILING
DEVELOPMENT. SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED THOUGH, SO WILL INCLUDE AT
LEAST TEMPORARY LOWER CEILINGS AT MOST TAF SITES. SHOULD SEE SOME
BREAKS OCCUR AND CEILINGS RISE BY LATE MORNING, WITH MORE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WILL INCLUDE
THUNDER AT KMAF AND KFST FOR NOW, BUT WAIT AND SEE WHETHER ANY OF
THE OTHER TAF SITES NEED A MENTION. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND WILL
MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
AND SATELLITE INDICATING THAT TWO MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE FIRST WAVE IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD ADVECT NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION INCREASES DUE TO HEATING AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES
NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. CONTINUED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS ALONG EAST OF A
LAMESA TO ODESSA TO FORT STOCKTON TO SANDERSON LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN
AREAS THAT ARE NOTED FOR THEIR POOR WATER DRAINAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY UNDERNEATH THE LOW WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA. HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LATEST NAM/CMC AND ECMWF ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER AND FLATTER THEN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST
AREAS THESE PERIODS AND COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE FRONT.
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
SHOULD SHRINK TO ISOLATED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND POSSIBLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 82 69 91 71 / 60 50 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 84 69 89 72 / 80 80 30 10
CARLSBAD NM 88 68 96 69 / 30 20 10 10
DRYDEN TX 86 71 91 73 / 80 60 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 85 69 93 73 / 70 50 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 82 64 91 70 / 30 20 10 20
HOBBS NM 85 66 92 67 / 50 30 10 10
MARFA TX 83 62 89 60 / 50 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 84 69 91 72 / 80 70 20 10
ODESSA TX 83 70 91 72 / 70 60 10 10
WINK TX 87 71 98 74 / 50 30 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON.
&&
$$
67/12
983
FXUS64 KMAF 140932
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
432 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND WILL
MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS EVENING AND THEN
THE EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE
AND SATELLITE INDICATING THAT TWO MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES WILL
ROTATE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. THE FIRST WAVE IS CURRENTLY
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD ADVECT NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION INCREASES DUE TO HEATING AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING TO OVER 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE WAVE. ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATES
NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO. CONTINUED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS ALONG EAST OF A
LAMESA TO ODESSA TO FORT STOCKTON TO SANDERSON LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED
WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN
AREAS THAT ARE NOTED FOR THEIR POOR WATER DRAINAGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY UNDERNEATH THE LOW WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER IN THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST AWAY FROM
THE AREA. HEATING AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED
CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE LATEST NAM/CMC AND ECMWF ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER AND FLATTER THEN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS MOST
AREAS THESE PERIODS AND COOLED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO DUE TO THE FRONT.
BY NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN AND AREAL COVERAGE OF ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
SHOULD SHRINK TO ISOLATED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND POSSIBLY THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL UNDER THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 82 69 91 71 / 60 50 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 84 69 89 72 / 80 80 30 10
CARLSBAD NM 88 68 96 69 / 30 20 10 10
DRYDEN TX 86 71 91 73 / 80 60 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 85 69 93 73 / 70 50 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 82 64 91 70 / 30 20 10 20
HOBBS NM 85 66 92 67 / 50 30 10 10
MARFA TX 83 62 89 60 / 50 20 20 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 84 69 91 72 / 80 70 20 10
ODESSA TX 83 70 91 72 / 70 60 10 10
WINK TX 87 71 98 74 / 50 30 10 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...
DAWSON...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON.
&&
$$
67/12
806
FXUS64 KMAF 140556
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...BUT TO THE WEST OF KHOB AND KCNM. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS
WILL DEVELOP, AND HAVE INCLUDED AT ALL TAF SITES, HOWEVER IF MID
AND HIGH CLOUD HANG TOUGH OVERNIGHT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE AMENDED.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE
INCLUDED PROB30 AT MOST SITES. 67
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
849
FXUS64 KMAF 132330
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
630 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STORMS MAY AFFECT THE TERMINALS
WITH MAF HAVING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MORE
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER ANY
TERMINALS WILL BE AFFECTED SO INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FOR THE LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 525 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED AND (HOPEFULLY) WET PATTERN IS SHAPING UP OVER WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH A
LARGE PORTION OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS BEING BROUGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COAHUILA. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE, PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED, APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
CHIHUAHUA SOUTHWEST OF PRESIDIO. ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING, DEEP
LAYER LIFT INDUCED BY THESE DISTURBANCES HAS ACTED ON THIS MOISTURE
WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTH ACROSS THE MARFA PLAINS AND THE BIG BEND.
BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ARE WEAK, AND SO
WE`RE NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE CELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND WITHIN A RICH
AIRMASS, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH MID EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IN ARROYOS, DRAWS, LOW WATER CROSSINGS, ETC. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS GREATEST.
FRIDAY COULD BE THE WETTEST DAY WE`VE SEEN IN A LONG WHILE. WE
EXPECT AN AXIS OF MOISTURE TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG A SANDERSON TO
MIDLAND TO LOVINGTON LINE BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WITHIN THIS AXIS COULD BE OVER 4 CM, OR ABOUT AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE
OF CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR, TALL/SKINNY CAPE,
AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ALL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION.
PLUS IT WON`T TAKE A LOT OF HEATING TO KICK THINGS OFF IN THE MORNING.
WHILE THE OVERALL SETUP FAVORS HEAVY RAINFALL, WE DON`T HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FOCUS.
SHOULD WE GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FOCUS, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE IN THE EVENING AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING
WANE. THERE`LL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEATING SATURDAY FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WE SHOULD START TO DRY
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THICKNESSES INCREASE
SUNDAY AND THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN WARMER HIGHS, WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.
COULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS WHERE HEAVIER RAINS
OCCURRED, BUT IT COULD ALSO BE THE GROUND WILL SOAK UP WHATEVER
MOISTURE WE MIGHT GET. MODELS ARE HINTING AT MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND IN TURN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SORTS LOOKS TO ENTER WEST TEXAS SOMETIME LATE MONDAY.
TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES RIGHT NOW TO CONTEMPLATE AND SO WE`LL LEAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...THIS COULD BE INCREASED AS WE
GAIN CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE.
GETTING INTO THE WEEDS...A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM WAS
USED FOR THE POP/QPF FORECASTS. THE SREF APPEARS TO SUPPORT THIS
SOMEWHAT, BUT BECAUSE THE SREF IS AN ENSEMBLE, POP/QPF FORECASTS
ARE UNDERDISPERSIVE AND GET SMEARED OUT OVER A LARGER AREA. ALL
OTHER FORECAST GRIDS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE
NEEDED. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE EVOLUTION OF MCS ACTIVITY AND
RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND POP/QPF FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
022
FXUS64 KMAF 132225
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
525 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSETTLED AND (HOPEFULLY) WET PATTERN IS SHAPING UP OVER WEST
TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. ABUNDANT MOISTURE THROUGH A
LARGE PORTION OF THE TROPOSPHERE IS BEING BROUGHT OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN COAHUILA. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE, PERHAPS
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED, APPEARS TO BE LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
CHIHUAHUA SOUTHWEST OF PRESIDIO. ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING, DEEP
LAYER LIFT INDUCED BY THESE DISTURBANCES HAS ACTED ON THIS MOISTURE
WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS SOUTH ACROSS THE MARFA PLAINS AND THE BIG BEND.
BOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ARE WEAK, AND SO
WE`RE NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER, BECAUSE THE CELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY AND WITHIN A RICH
AIRMASS, LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH MID EVENING,
ESPECIALLY IN ARROYOS, DRAWS, LOW WATER CROSSINGS, ETC. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OVERNIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-10, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE UPPER LEVEL FORCING IS GREATEST.
FRIDAY COULD BE THE WETTEST DAY WE`VE SEEN IN A LONG WHILE. WE
EXPECT AN AXIS OF MOISTURE TO BE ROUGHLY ALONG A SANDERSON TO
MIDLAND TO LOVINGTON LINE BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WITHIN THIS AXIS COULD BE OVER 4 CM, OR ABOUT AT THE 99TH PERCENTILE
OF CLIMO THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR, TALL/SKINNY CAPE,
AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER ALL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCTION.
PLUS IT WON`T TAKE A LOT OF HEATING TO KICK THINGS OFF IN THE MORNING.
WHILE THE OVERALL SETUP FAVORS HEAVY RAINFALL, WE DON`T HAVE A LOT
OF CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FOCUS.
SHOULD WE GET A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
FOCUS, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH COULD BE NEEDED.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
LATE IN THE EVENING AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND DIURNAL HEATING
WANE. THERE`LL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND HEATING SATURDAY FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WE SHOULD START TO DRY
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THICKNESSES INCREASE
SUNDAY AND THIS IN TURN WILL RESULT IN WARMER HIGHS, WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY TOPPING THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS.
COULD SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS AREAS WHERE HEAVIER RAINS
OCCURRED, BUT IT COULD ALSO BE THE GROUND WILL SOAK UP WHATEVER
MOISTURE WE MIGHT GET. MODELS ARE HINTING AT MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER
KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND IN TURN AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OF SORTS LOOKS TO ENTER WEST TEXAS SOMETIME LATE MONDAY.
TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES RIGHT NOW TO CONTEMPLATE AND SO WE`LL LEAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...THIS COULD BE INCREASED AS WE
GAIN CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE.
GETTING INTO THE WEEDS...A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM WAS
USED FOR THE POP/QPF FORECASTS. THE SREF APPEARS TO SUPPORT THIS
SOMEWHAT, BUT BECAUSE THE SREF IS AN ENSEMBLE, POP/QPF FORECASTS
ARE UNDERDISPERSIVE AND GET SMEARED OUT OVER A LARGER AREA. ALL
OTHER FORECAST GRIDS LOOKED PRETTY GOOD AND ONLY A FEW TWEAKS WERE
NEEDED. AS MENTIONED BEFORE, THE EVOLUTION OF MCS ACTIVITY AND
RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROGRESSION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME AND POP/QPF FORECASTS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
UPWARD BY LATER SHIFTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 82 69 90 / 20 60 40 30
BIG SPRING TX 70 84 69 87 / 10 40 40 30
CARLSBAD NM 69 86 68 94 / 30 40 30 20
DRYDEN TX 71 88 71 91 / 50 50 40 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 68 85 69 93 / 50 60 40 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 82 64 89 / 40 40 30 20
HOBBS NM 67 84 66 90 / 10 50 40 30
MARFA TX 61 83 62 92 / 60 50 40 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 68 83 69 88 / 20 60 40 30
ODESSA TX 68 83 70 89 / 30 70 40 30
WINK TX 70 87 71 94 / 40 60 40 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
70/29
690
FXUS64 KMAF 131714
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. THERE COULD BE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO NEAR KFST THIS AFTERNOON BUT THREAT IS TOO
ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. MOST MODELS BRING QUITE
A BIT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN OVERNIGHT SO EXPECTED CIGS TO LOWER
TO MVFR BY EARLY MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO THE
MORNING FRIDAY...HOWEVER TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT SO
WILL NOT YET INCLUDE IN THE TAFS JUST YET.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
773
FXUS64 KMAF 131106
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND
SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN, AND ARE SPREADING NORTH AND NORTHWESTWARD.
THEREFORE, HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS IN ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KCNM.
IT APPEARS THE LOW CLOUDS COULD LINGER UNTIL 13/16Z OR 13/17Z AT
MOST OF THE AFFECTED SITES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON, BUT STILL HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT
ANY OF THE TAF SITES SINCE THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF DEVELOPMENT IS
UNCERTAIN. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND TODAY AND THEN NORTH INTO WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM TODAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
LOW. SOME CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SPREADING NORTH WITH HELP FROM A 20 TO 30 KNOT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE TO DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND LOWERING HEIGHTS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAWIDE THUNDERSTORMS (CHANCE TO LIKELY)
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BORDER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO SHEAR FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WITH
POOR LAPSE RATES AND CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT
INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUDY MOIST REGIME.
LATEST CMC AND ECMWF NOW INDICATING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER
AND FLATTER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA THESE DAYS.
UPPER RIDGE MAY FINALLY BECOME STRONGER NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 93 67 85 69 / 10 20 50 40
BIG SPRING TX 93 68 86 69 / 10 20 40 40
CARLSBAD NM 95 67 87 68 / 10 20 30 30
DRYDEN TX 91 70 85 71 / 40 50 70 40
FORT STOCKTON TX 91 68 86 69 / 20 30 60 40
GUADALUPE PASS TX 85 61 82 64 / 20 30 30 30
HOBBS NM 92 66 84 66 / 10 20 40 40
MARFA TX 85 60 79 62 / 40 40 50 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 92 68 84 69 / 20 30 60 40
ODESSA TX 92 67 85 70 / 20 30 60 40
WINK TX 96 70 88 71 / 20 30 50 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/12
994
FXUS64 KMAF 130821
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
321 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND TODAY AND THEN NORTH INTO WEST
TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM TODAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND THE LOWER TRANS PECOS CLOSEST TO THE UPPER
LOW. SOME CONVECTION MIGHT DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN AND POSSIBLY SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO POTENTIAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SPREADING NORTH WITH HELP FROM A 20 TO 30 KNOT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST 500 MILLIBAR FLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE
OF DEGREES COOLER TODAY DUE TO DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
AND LOWERING HEIGHTS.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAWIDE THUNDERSTORMS (CHANCE TO LIKELY)
APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH
TOWARD THE WEST TEXAS/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO BORDER. NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO SHEAR FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 30 KNOTS WITH
POOR LAPSE RATES AND CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FORECAST PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT
INTO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUDY MOIST REGIME.
LATEST CMC AND ECMWF NOW INDICATING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE WEAKER
AND FLATTER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
PERMIAN BASIN. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF THE FORECAST AREA THESE DAYS.
UPPER RIDGE MAY FINALLY BECOME STRONGER NEXT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 93 67 85 69 / 10 20 50 40
BIG SPRING TX 93 68 86 69 / 10 20 40 40
CARLSBAD NM 95 67 87 68 / 10 20 30 30
DRYDEN TX 91 70 85 71 / 40 50 70 40
FORT STOCKTON TX 91 68 86 69 / 20 30 60 40
GUADALUPE PASS TX 85 61 82 64 / 20 30 30 30
HOBBS NM 92 66 84 66 / 10 20 40 40
MARFA TX 85 60 79 62 / 40 40 50 40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 92 68 84 69 / 20 30 60 40
ODESSA TX 92 67 85 70 / 20 30 60 40
WINK TX 96 70 88 71 / 20 30 50 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/12
156
FXUS64 KMAF 130513
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS,
EXCEPT PERHAPS AT KMAF WHERE MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR BETWEEN
13/12Z AND 13/15Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LEAVE THESE SOUTH OF ALL TAF SITES UNTIL MORE
AGREEMENT IS SEEN IN DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH. 67
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
656
FXUS64 KMAF 122157
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
457 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A CU FIELD MOST TERMINALS 16-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 3-7 KFT AGL. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AS A GULF COAST TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH...BUT
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KFST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS EARLY TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST AS AN UPPER LOW ROLLS AROUND THE BOTTOM OF RIDGE. CURRENTLY
THERE ARE STORMS OVER THE GULF AND SOUTH TX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
WITH SE FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS WORK UP INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN PERHAPS REACHING SE NM TOMORROW MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.
DEWPTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE.
THE PW HAS INCREASED TO OVER 1 INCH ON 12Z MAF SOUNDING... WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS PUSHING IT TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY. WILL BEGIN
WITH SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT
THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES THAT MOST AREA RESIDENTS WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL.
MODEL QPF INDICATES SOME GOOD RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
LOOKS A LITTLE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE AT TIMES. EXPECT THE BIG BEND/
LOWER TRANS PECOS/DAVIS MTNS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RECEIVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT CONFIDENCE/POPS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
A WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AND SHIFT TO EASTERN CWA
ON SATURDAY. UNDER THE RIDGE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER NEXT WEEK SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS AFTER SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
726
FXUS64 KMAF 121849
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
149 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS EARLY TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EAST AS AN UPPER LOW ROLLS AROUND THE BOTTOM OF RIDGE. CURRENTLY
THERE ARE STORMS OVER THE GULF AND SOUTH TX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND THEN
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN TO THE AREA.
WITH SE FLOW AT THE SURFACE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN HIGH NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS WORK UP INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN PERHAPS REACHING SE NM TOMORROW MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY.
DEWPTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE.
THE PW HAS INCREASED TO OVER 1 INCH ON 12Z MAF SOUNDING... WITH
MODEL SOUNDINGS PUSHING IT TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY. WILL BEGIN
WITH SOME LOW POPS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TONIGHT BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT
THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES THAT MOST AREA RESIDENTS WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL.
MODEL QPF INDICATES SOME GOOD RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT ALSO
LOOKS A LITTLE SPOTTY IN COVERAGE AT TIMES. EXPECT THE BIG BEND/
LOWER TRANS PECOS/DAVIS MTNS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR RECEIVING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE LOW. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SOUTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN HWO BUT CONFIDENCE/POPS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR
A WATCH AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AND SHIFT TO EASTERN CWA
ON SATURDAY. UNDER THE RIDGE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER NEXT WEEK SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY POPS AFTER SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER. THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM FALLING MUCH BELOW 70 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 69 93 68 83 / 0 10 20 30
BIG SPRING TX 69 93 69 83 / 0 0 20 30
CARLSBAD NM 69 93 67 86 / 0 10 20 30
DRYDEN TX 73 89 68 87 / 10 30 40 50
FORT STOCKTON TX 70 90 68 86 / 0 20 30 40
GUADALUPE PASS TX 66 86 64 81 / 0 10 30 30
HOBBS NM 66 93 67 83 / 0 0 20 30
MARFA TX 61 81 60 79 / 10 30 40 50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 70 92 69 82 / 0 10 20 30
ODESSA TX 71 92 68 82 / 0 10 20 30
WINK TX 72 95 71 85 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/72
926
FXUS64 KMAF 121735
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
AVIATION CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS LAY PRIMARILY WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATUS DECK THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS TO KFST AND KMAF. VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH STRONGER GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL
DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF MEXICO TOMORROW BUT ANY CHANGES TO FLIGHT
CATEGORY ARE OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU/LOWER TRANS
PECOS THIS MORNING AND ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THINK COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SPOTTY SO WILL INCLUDE
TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS AT KMAF UNTIL 12/15Z. SINCE THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS QUESTIONABLE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
KINK FORECAST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. 67
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN NORTH
INTO WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SYSTEM TODAY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE APPROACHING LOW AND UPPER FLOW SHOULD
PUSH MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE PECOS RIVER IN WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
COOL TOWARDS NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL UNDER CONTINUED DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO WEST TEXAS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SHEAR OF LESS THAN 30 KNOTS
WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUDY MOIST REGIME.
BY SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REGAIN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A FLATTER RIDGE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS DEPICTS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
13
979
FXUS64 KMAF 121048
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
548 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE STOCKTON PLATEAU/LOWER TRANS
PECOS THIS MORNING AND ARE SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN. THINK COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SPOTTY SO WILL INCLUDE
TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS AT KMAF UNTIL 12/15Z. SINCE THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE LOW CLOUDS IS QUESTIONABLE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE
KINK FORECAST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS GUSTY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN NORTH
INTO WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SYSTEM TODAY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE APPROACHING LOW AND UPPER FLOW SHOULD
PUSH MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE PECOS RIVER IN WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
COOL TOWARDS NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL UNDER CONTINUED DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO WEST TEXAS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SHEAR OF LESS THAN 30 KNOTS
WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUDY MOIST REGIME.
BY SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REGAIN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A FLATTER RIDGE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS DEPICTS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 67 93 67 / 0 0 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 96 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 98 66 94 67 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 93 72 89 68 / 10 10 20 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 95 71 91 70 / 0 0 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 93 64 86 64 / 0 0 10 20
HOBBS NM 97 62 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 92 60 83 62 / 10 10 30 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 95 68 92 67 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA TX 95 69 92 68 / 0 0 10 20
WINK TX 98 71 96 71 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/12
593
FXUS64 KMAF 120853
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN NORTH
INTO WEST TEXAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SYSTEM TODAY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO DEEP EAST
TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE APPROACHING LOW AND UPPER FLOW SHOULD
PUSH MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE PECOS RIVER IN WEST TEXAS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO
COOL TOWARDS NORMAL AS HEIGHTS FALL UNDER CONTINUED DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR AREAWIDE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO WEST TEXAS.
NOT EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN SHEAR OF LESS THAN 30 KNOTS
WITH POOR LAPSE RATES AND CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN
PERMIAN BASIN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO DEPART TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR
BELOW NORMAL IN CLOUDY MOIST REGIME.
BY SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REGAIN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL
AGAIN. THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING A FLATTER RIDGE AND SOME POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GFS DEPICTS A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 67 93 67 / 0 0 10 10
BIG SPRING TX 96 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 98 66 94 67 / 0 0 10 10
DRYDEN TX 93 72 89 68 / 10 10 20 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 95 71 91 70 / 0 0 10 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 93 64 86 64 / 0 0 10 20
HOBBS NM 97 62 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
MARFA TX 92 60 83 62 / 10 10 30 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 95 68 92 67 / 0 0 10 10
ODESSA TX 95 69 92 68 / 0 0 10 20
WINK TX 98 71 96 71 / 0 0 10 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
67/12
763
FXUS64 KMAF 120506
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS AT KCNM AND KPEQ, AND POSSIBLY KFST, UNTIL AT LEAST
12/07Z BEFORE THE JET MIGRATES NORTHWARD. EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING ON
MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND AFFECT KMAF FROM 12/12Z TO
12/16Z. WILL ONLY ADD A TEMPORARY CEILING AT KINK OTHERWISE. THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION BY 12/18Z
WITH GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PREVAIL AREAWIDE AFTER THIS
MORNING. 67
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
553
FXUS64 KMAF 112229
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
529 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WORRIES NEXT 24 HOURS...AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERY DRY AIR OVER THE REGION
TODAY SO DESPITE SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING IN THE BIG BEND
DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PUSHES HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS...TO MOVE EAST OVER LOUISIANA. THIS OPENS UP WEST TEXAS AND
NEW MEXICO TO SOUTHERLY FLOW LIFTING THE LOW NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...AND
RAIN. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE BIG BEND LATE TOMORROW NIGHT
SPREADING NORTH OVERNIGHT. MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-10 THURSDAY WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND DIABATIC HEATING OF THE
TERRAIN THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXACT PATH OF THE LOW WILL BE CRUCIAL
TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH MOST CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER...ONLY MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION WILL BE EXPECTED WEST OF THE CENTER. FORTUNATELY MOST
MODELS TAKE THE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AND INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN WHICH WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR DECENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. FRIDAY WILL BE THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LOW
CENTER OVERHEAD WITH RAIN CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY THOUGH CHANCES
WILL BE DECREASING AS THE LOW BECOMES SHEARED INTO A TROUGH AND
GETS PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND MOVES BACK TO THE EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES TO ALMOST 2 INCHES
ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND POINT TO A POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN
THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AND
LIKELY SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING OF CONVECTION. THUS FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS.
THE RAIN COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL DROP TEMPS
BEGINNING THURSDAY...BUT REALLY TAKING HOLD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL MOST LOCATIONS. A DIGGING UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFF THE WEST COAST WILL AMPLIFY RIDGING CENTERED ON THE
PLAINS AND SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE UPPER 90S BY LATE IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WILL ALSO PUT AN END
TO RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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