695
FXUS64 KMAF 030438
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1038 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER AROUND 02Z
MONDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2013/
HAZARDS...
* HIGH WINDS LIKELY OVER THE GUADALUPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH TO THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.
* HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE MONDAY FROM CULBERSON COUNTY SOUTH ACROSS
THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND MARFA PLATEAU.
* CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH
ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.
IMPACTS...
* HIGH WINDS WILL CAUSE CONTROL PROBLEMS FOR DRIVERS OF HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. FENCES...CARPORTS...AND OUTBUILDINGS MAY BE
DAMAGED.
* WINDY...DRY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR RAPID
FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH ABUNDANT
FUELS.
DISCUSSION...
VERY DRY...WINDY...AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN NOT ONLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE BUT ALSO FAVOR RAPID FIRE
GROWTH AND SPREAD SHOULD IGNITIONS OCCUR.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL FLATTEN AS A
PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, PRESENTLY OFF THE BC COAST AND ANOTHER
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, MOVE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE LEE SLOPES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO LATE MONDAY
NIGHT, KNOCKING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY. A
WARMUP THEN COMMENCES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING GULF MOISTURE AND THE APPROACH OF
ANOTHER UPPER STORM SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MAINLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
WHILE NOT NEAR AS STRONG AS LAST MONDAY`S EXTREME WIND EVENT, WINDS
WILL BE PRETTY GUSTY ACROSS ALL OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STRONG WINDS ALOFT (NEARING 50 TO 60
MPH) WILL MIX DOWN TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPES
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE A BIT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THE WINDS MAY
ACTUALLY INCREASE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY, THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD A LARGER PORTION OF WEST TEXAS
AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, AFFECTING NOT ONLY THE GUADALUPES BUT
ALSO SOUTH ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS, MARFA PLATEAU, AND MUCH OF
CULBERSON COUNTY.
FOR AREAS FARTHER EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, INCLUDING THE UPPER TRANS
PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN REGIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. PRESENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERION.
WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND UPGRADE AS NEEDED. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND, PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LOWER IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF COTTON
FIELDS, CONSTRUCTION AREAS, AND OTHER BARREN AREAS. VERY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A HALF MILE
CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ENDING THE HIGH WIND EVENT.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OUT AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN STANDING THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING BADLY NEEDED RAINS. WE`LL HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
THE WHERE AND WHEN AND HOW MUCH AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK...STAY
TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY DRY PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES HAVE BEEN VERY POOR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INCLUDING THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
WITH SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HOLDING NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AROUND MID MORNING AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND WEST
OF THE TRANS PECOS BY MID DAY. 20 FOOT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MEET
OR EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND QUITE POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS AND VAN
HORN/HWY 54 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT OF THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS...
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
BREWSTER COUNTY HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ADDED TO THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HOWEVER THINK WINDS WILL NOT MEET WARNING CRITERIA FOR 3
HOURS OR MORE SO JUST ISSUED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR THIS AREA.
IN ADDITION TO BREWSTER COUNTY...PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN MAY EXPERIENCE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS WELL. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE HANDLED WITH A FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
POOR TO GOOD FROM WEST TO EAST.
THERE WILL BE A SHORT LULL IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY
HOWEVER THIS WILL END WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
20 FOOT WIND THRESHOLDS WILL RETURN TO GENERALLY THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN A HIGH END FIRE
WEATHER DAY ACROSS THESE AREAS. AFTER A GENERALLY POOR TO GOOD
RECOVERY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THURSDAY COULD BE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY AS WELL HOWEVER IT WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS
AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...
PECOS...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TO 8 PM CST /7 PM
MST/ SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE
MOUNTAINS AREA...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...MARFA
PLATEAU...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
&&
$$
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