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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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Product Version: 2013-10-02 15:41:21 2013-10-02 11:29:16 2013-10-02 08:43:25 2013-10-02 05:36:51 2013-10-01 23:01:44 2013-10-01 19:17:51 2013-10-01 17:33:58 2013-10-01 10:44:03 2013-10-01 08:50:58 2013-10-01 05:00:57 2013-09-30 23:10:52 2013-09-30 19:11:54 2013-09-30 17:03:08 2013-09-30 10:54:08 2013-09-30 08:40:32 2013-09-30 04:51:12 2013-09-29 23:21:54 2013-09-29 19:08:21 2013-09-29 17:05:27 2013-09-29 11:02:10 2013-09-29 08:35:35 2013-09-29 04:33:28 2013-09-29 02:25:56 2013-09-28 23:22:50 2013-09-28 19:09:19 2013-09-28 17:16:15 2013-09-28 13:57:03 2013-09-28 11:26:23 2013-09-28 09:10:22 2013-09-28 05:35:58 2013-09-27 22:52:11 2013-09-27 19:28:18 2013-09-27 18:24:08 2013-09-27 11:43:57 2013-09-27 08:48:26 2013-09-27 05:35:40 2013-09-26 22:41:48 2013-09-26 20:08:23 2013-09-26 17:09:45 2013-09-26 11:13:42 2013-09-26 08:59:32 2013-09-26 05:25:29 2013-09-25 21:41:35 2013-09-25 19:24:32 2013-09-25 17:19:17 ALL   

328
FXUS64 KMAF 021541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1041 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. The NAM initialized
slightly better on moisture/winds than the GFS, which is thus not
accepted.  Forecast soundings suggest convective temps too high
for cu formation today, but will be possible late in the forecast
period invof KMAF/KFST, w/bases 7-10 kft agl. Otherwise, southwest
sfc flow will back to the south after sundown, w/a 40+kt LLJ
keeping them from shutting down entirely overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2013/

DISCUSSION...

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue across the region the next
couple of days keeping temperatures well above normal for early
October. A lee sfc trough over the region will keep southerly flow
in place with winds becoming gusty each afternoon. A dryline will
waffle back and forth across the region each day bringing moisture
west overnight, then pushing drier air east during the day. We could
see enough moisture return Thursday morning for patchy fog and low
clouds across the lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian Basin.

In the meantime, an upper trough will dig into the western U.S. late
this week. As this storm system crosses the Plains it will push a
cold front south this weekend with much cooler temperatures behind
it. The front is still expected to arrive Friday night or early
Saturday morning with gusty northerly winds and falling
temperatures. Will need to monitor conditions for possible high wind
headlines in Guadalupe Pass for Saturday as winds look to be near
criteria. Strong winds behind the front may also bring our first
bout of blowing dust this season with no rain occurring over the
area in the last week. A few showers and maybe a thunderstorm are
possible Saturday afternoon over the lower Trans Pecos as the
front encounters better moisture. Temperatures will be much cooler
Saturday with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. Our coldest morning
will be Sunday as temperatures fall mostly into the 40s with a few
30s possible in the higher terrain and northern parts of Lea
county.

Temperatures then quickly warm back up to above average values early
next week ahead of another storm system. The extended forecast will
remain dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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