328 FXUS64 KMAF 021541 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 1041 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2013 .DISCUSSION... See Aviation Discussion below. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. The NAM initialized slightly better on moisture/winds than the GFS, which is thus not accepted. Forecast soundings suggest convective temps too high for cu formation today, but will be possible late in the forecast period invof KMAF/KFST, w/bases 7-10 kft agl. Otherwise, southwest sfc flow will back to the south after sundown, w/a 40+kt LLJ keeping them from shutting down entirely overnight. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM CDT Wed Oct 2 2013/ DISCUSSION... Quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue across the region the next couple of days keeping temperatures well above normal for early October. A lee sfc trough over the region will keep southerly flow in place with winds becoming gusty each afternoon. A dryline will waffle back and forth across the region each day bringing moisture west overnight, then pushing drier air east during the day. We could see enough moisture return Thursday morning for patchy fog and low clouds across the lower Trans Pecos and southeast Permian Basin. In the meantime, an upper trough will dig into the western U.S. late this week. As this storm system crosses the Plains it will push a cold front south this weekend with much cooler temperatures behind it. The front is still expected to arrive Friday night or early Saturday morning with gusty northerly winds and falling temperatures. Will need to monitor conditions for possible high wind headlines in Guadalupe Pass for Saturday as winds look to be near criteria. Strong winds behind the front may also bring our first bout of blowing dust this season with no rain occurring over the area in the last week. A few showers and maybe a thunderstorm are possible Saturday afternoon over the lower Trans Pecos as the front encounters better moisture. Temperatures will be much cooler Saturday with highs mostly in the 60s and 70s. Our coldest morning will be Sunday as temperatures fall mostly into the 40s with a few 30s possible in the higher terrain and northern parts of Lea county. Temperatures then quickly warm back up to above average values early next week ahead of another storm system. The extended forecast will remain dry. && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 44