Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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061
FXUS64 KMAF 251129
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. West-
southwest winds will increase late morning, with 25-35kt gusts
expected through the afternoon. After sunset, gusts will diminish
at all terminals except CNM, where winds could continue to gust
to around 25kt through the night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 356 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge building over the area will result in hot wx for the
region today through Saturday.  The next upper trough over the NW
will rotate southward Friday and extend from the Northern Plains to
the 4 corners region on Saturday.  On Sunday this trough will spin
east across the Southern Plains pushing a cold front through the
area and bringing a break from the unseasonably hot temperatures.

Have completely clear skies across the area this morning.  May have
a few high clouds move in from the west later today but expect
mostly sunny skies for the area as under subsidence.  Looks to be
windy in the mountains today as winds aloft mix down... will go
ahead and upgrade High Wind Watch for Guadalupes to a warning... but
expect it to be a low end event.

Did not hit the high yesterday till after 6pm.  850mb temps expected
to be 30C/86F+ today along with a west/downslope surface wind will
help push temps over the century mark today.  Expect 100+ temps
today with highs near 100 Friday over much of the area.  Stayed to
the warm side of guidance... bumped up temps a little today.  Could
see readings pushing 110 degrees along portions of the Rio Grande.
Do not expect to reach record high today at MAF since it is 105
degrees set in 1990 but could tie it tomorrow since it is only 100
degrees last reached in 1991.  Wind will remain westerly on Friday.
A cold front will blow through the area early Sunday and bring a
return to highs in the 80s.

Rain chances begin Sunday and continue each day next week... may see
some along behind the front Sunday.  Will have to monitor the
development of a cut off low over Baja next week... could be a rain
producer as it moves east.

FIRE WEATHER...
Increasing westerly flow today will usher very hot, dry air into the
area, with afternoon temperatures expected to climb to around 10
degrees above normal.  RHs will drop under 15% for nearly the entire
area, with lowest RHs around 5-7% expected today along and west of
the Pecos River.  Strong winds across the Guadalupe Mountains,
Southeast New Mexico Plains, and Culberson county will result in
critical fire weather conditions in those areas, as fine fuels
remain cured and the hot, windy weather will quickly dry out any
fuels that received moisture over the last week.  A Red Flag Warning
remains in effect for these areas from late this morning through
this evening. Of particular concern are the Guadalupe Mountains,
where 20ft winds could reach 30 to 40 mph, with higher gusts, and
RFTIs will range from extreme to historical. Across the Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Culberson county, 20ft winds of 25 to 35 mph
are expected, with higher gusts possible. Winds will decrease
overnight, though recovery will be poor. On Friday, the hot and dry
conditions will continue, and despite winds being slightly weaker,
critical fire weather conditions are expected to redevelop across
the same areas, with anticipated afternoon RHs around 7-10%.  A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued from late Friday morning through
Friday evening. Saturday will be another hot, dry day, however
significantly weaker winds should preclude major fire weather
concerns. A cold front Sunday will bring increased moisture and
lower temperatures for the end of the weekend into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                    102  69 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                      102  67  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                        101  72 102  72 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                 103  71 100  69 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 94  67  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          99  65  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          95  57  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport          103  70 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                        103  70  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                          106  68 102  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM MDT this
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...High Wind Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning to
     midnight CDT /11 PM MDT/ tonight for Guadalupe Mountains-
     Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.

&&

$$

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