495
FXUS64 KMAF 032336
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AS SURFACE LOW
OVER PANHANDLE SLIDES EAST. EXPECT WEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN TOMORROW AS NEW LOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM AND WINDS ALOFT
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WILL REMAIN VFR WITH SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS
DRIFTING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TODAY UNDERNEATH 85H THERMAL RIDGE ALONG WITH DRY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. 30KT WINDS AT 7H HAVE KICKED WINDS UP IN PARTS OF
THE GDP MTNS AND HIGH WIND WARNING LOOKS GOOD THERE...IN THE LEAST
FAVORED AREAS OF E SLOPES OVERNIGHT THERE IS THE EXPECTATION OF A
LULL IN THE WINDS. LOW DWPNT AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THUS
FAVORING NEAR SEASONAL LOW TEMPERATURES OF 35-40 ACROSS THE PB. MUCH
OF THE SAME TUE WITH UNSEASONAL WARMTH NEARLY GUARANTEED BY PRESENCE
OF 20C 85H TEMPERATURES AND EVEN A STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THERE
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY WHICH WILL BE AHEAD OF MID
LEVEL SHRTWV TROF AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. SAID SHRTWV TROF
WILL MAINTAIN A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH REALLY NOT MUCH OF A MSLP GRADIENT. MIXED LAYER WINDS NEAR 25KTS
WILL STILL HAVE COULD CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE PLAINS. 7H
HEIGHT GRADIENT IS ONLY 50-60M/200NM THUS GIVING SUPPORT TO A 20-30
MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS FCST FOR THE PLAINS. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH MOS (GFS ON THE HIGH END AND MET ON LOW END). 7H WINDS INCREASE
(40-50KTS) THRU THE DAY SUNDAY AND REMAIN FROM THE W. AS SUCH HIGH
WINDS WILL BE FAVORED IN THE GDP/DAVIS MTNS. WILL UPGRADE WATCH
FOR DAVIS MTNS WITH EMPHASIS ABOVE 6KFT. FOR VAN HORN/MRF AREAS
WILL LEAVE WATCH OUT DUE TO LESS CERTAINTY...ADVISORY MAY BE MORE
APPROPRIATE THERE? THERE WILL BE A BIT OF PHASING OF THE MINOR SHRTWV
TROF AND COLDER/DEEPER MID LEVEL TROF TO THE N EARLY MONDAY EVENING
AND THE ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL GET A GOOD SHOVE S. FRONT WILL BE
WELL INTO THE PB BY 06Z/TUE AND BRIEFLY POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL NEAR
25 MPH SUSTAINED. AT LEAST PATCHY AREAS OF BLDU WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PB. STILL TOO MUCH WIND FOR TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT TUE
AM BUT WITH THE WIND AND TEMPERATURES IN 35-40 RANGE IT WILL FEEL
COLD. HIGHS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS. COLDER WEDNESDAY
AM TOO WITH LIGHT WINDS AND STILL DRY AIR. 85H TEMPERATURES ABOUT
2-4C WARMER WEDNESDAY SO HIGHS WILL BE INTO L60S ANYWAY. WARMING
TREND CONTINUES INTO THUR/FRI BUT LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL CREEP UP TOO...
ESPECIALLY ERN CWFA AND BY FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WIDESPREAD
BACK IN THE 70S. MEANWHILE BROAD COLD UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
DESERT SW REGION AND ASSOCD 150KT 3H JET WILL NOSE INTO SRN NM/W TX.
FOR NOW INDICATION IS THAT LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL BE LIMITED EARLY FRIDAY
(DWPNTS M40S) BUT HIGH BASED SHRA/TSRA CAN/T BE RULED OUT WITH STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LR/S...EVEN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING. MSTR WILL HAVE A CHANCE
TO IMPROVE SATURDAY AND GFS/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD THAT CONVECTION WILL BREAK
OUT ALONG A MODEST DRYLINE ACROSS ERN CWFA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
GFS KEEPS MID/UPPER LOW OPEN AND FAR S THAN ECMWF ON SUNDAY. AS SUCH
ECMWF WOULD FAVOR WINDY/DRY CONDITIONS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL MAKE
ONLY MINOR CHANGES FOR NOW IN THE LATTER PART OF EXTENDED.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE SLOWLY COMING TOGETHER WITH A FEW SITES
IN THE E REPORTING RF WX. GDP/CNM/ATS ARE ALL AT OR VERY NEAR RF. MORE
CRITICAL FIRE WX AND OVER A LARGER AREA FOR SUNDAY AS UNSEASONAL
WARMTH (15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)...25KT MIXED LATER WIND IS REALIZED...
AND AS MIN RH/S FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. FUEL MAPS SOWS THE DRIEST
FUELS TO BE E OF A LINE BIG SPRING TO MARFA...ALTHOUGH 1HR FUELS ARE
CERTAINLY AVAILABLE ACROSS ALL AREAS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST
PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...
GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...
MITCHELL...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...
SCURRY...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...CRANE...
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...
GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARFA
PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...UPTON...VAN
HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES... MARFA PLATEAU...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY
54 CORRIDOR.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA.
&&
$$
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