811
FGUS74 KMAF 200339
ESFMAF
201539-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1039 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013
...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Long Range
Probabilistic Outlook for the Colorado River Basin in West Texas...
The National Weather Service office in Midland, Texas has
implemented the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for
the Colorado River Basin in West Texas. AHPS enables the National
Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This
service is also available on the internet.
In the table below, the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels in the
next 90 days. Example: The Colorado River at Colorado City has a
flood stage of 15.0 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the
Colorado City Forecast point will not rise above 5.5 feet during the
next 90 days.
Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations
Valid [ 9/18/2013 - 12/18/2013 ]
Location FS(ft) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- ------ --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Colorado River
Colorado City 15.0 3.0 3.4 3.7 4.7 5.5 6.1 7.2 8.8 10.8
Beals Creek
Westbrook 22.5 3.0 3.6 3.7 3.9 5.2 5.7 8.1 8.7 11.0
Deep Creek
Dunn 14.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.7 5.7 6.0
Lake JB Thomas
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2206.8 2206.8 2206.8 2207.0 2208.1 2209.0 2210.0 2210.6 2216.7
Lake Colorado City
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2049.3 2049.3 2049.3 2049.3 2049.5 2049.7 2050.4 2050.8 2052.2
Champion Creek Reservoir
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
2038.0 2038.0 2038.1 2038.1 2038.2 2038.4 2039.2 2039.6 2041.6
This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are
calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical
climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into
account current conditions of the river and soil moisture. By
providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers, the level
of risk associated with long-range planning decisions can be
determined.
Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the
internet at:
http://ahps.srh.weather.gov/index.php?wfo=maf
Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third
Thursday of every month.
$$
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