Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

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FXUS64 KMAF 281906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
106 PM CST SAT NOV 28 2015


Please see the updated and aviation forecast discussions below.



Continuing to see a moist fetch embedded in southwesterly flow
aloft. A band of more-or-less showery precip extends from the
Davis Mountains northeastward through the northern Permian Basin
and eventually across southwest Oklahoma. Broad area of lift
associated with this precip looks to me to be associated with
modest Qn divergence along the core of the upper jet. Best guess
with the surface 0C isotherm is from Maljamar NM eastward through
Andrews and Big Spring TX, then from there northeastward to around
Childress TX. Model deterministic and ensemble solutions show that
the overall threat of significant icing has ended, and we have
let previous highlights expire at 18Z. Surface temperatures will
struggle to rise much more than what they are now this afternoon,
and whatever warm advective signal seen in the models is dampened
by strong near-surface static stability. Consequently winds will
remain more or less light northerly, trending to light and
variable during the late afternoon hours.



MVFR to near IFR conditions are forecast to continue this
afternoon, but are forecast to fall to widespread IFR early Sunday
morning. Before sunrise Sunday, LIFR conditions are expected at
KHOB with IFR expected elsewhere. These conditions are expected to
slowly improve after midday Sunday. Lastly, surface winds will be
light and variable through midday Sunday. Beyond this forecast
period, ceilings will be stubborn to improve until late Monday
morning/early Monday afternoon.





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