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Area Forecast Discussion

551 
FXUS64 KLZK 222322 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
522 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS AND VISBYS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD IFR BY LATE TONIGHT.
TAFS OUT ALREADY. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

WARM FNT WAS SITUATED WELL TO THE N OF AR THIS AFTN...WITH S/SELY 
WINDS NOTED ACRS THE FA. WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA HAS CONTD TO 
AFFECT MUCH OF W-CNTRL AND NRN AR AS ANOTHER UPR LVL IMPULSE LIFTS 
THRU THE REGION. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE NOTED OVR THE SERN HALF OF 
THE AREA....WITH MID AFTN TEMPS IN THE 60S TO ARND 70.

THE PRIMARY WX MAKER OVR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS WL BE THE MAIN UPR 
LVL STORM SYS THAT WL CONT TO TRACK EWD INTO CNTRL TX TNGT AND 
EVENTUALLY LIFT NEWD THRU AR ON SUN. SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA WL BCM MORE 
WIDESPREAD FM THE SW OVERNIGHT AND CONT ON SUN. 

ONE FCST ISSUE CONTS TO BE THE ONSET/PROGRESS WITH THE MAIN WAVE OF 
RAINFALL LATER TNGT AND SUN. THE HRRR MODEL HAS STAYED CONSISTENT 
TODAY INDCG THE BULK OF THE RAIN WL NOT AFFECT THE FA FM THE SW 
UNTIL AFT MIDNIGHT TNGT AND HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARD THIS SOLUTION.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHRA/ISOLD TSRA SUN MRNG...SLOLY DCRSG FM THE SW 
SUN AFTN AND EVENING AS THE STORM SYS LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. LEFT 
SOME SMALL RAIN CHCS IN FOR NRN AR SUN NGT AS THE MAIN UPR LVL TROF 
SWINGS THRU THE AREA.

BREEZY WLY WINDS WL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR BACK TO THE MID 
SOUTH FOR THE REST OF THE PD. SECONDARY CDFNT WL PASS THRU THE AREA 
ON TUE...WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT IS DUE ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE 
LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO INCLUDE ANY POPS. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IN THE 
THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. WITH THESE REINFORCING SHOTS OF COOL 
AIR...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE 
END OF THE WEEK. JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THERE SHOULD BE 
MORE CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SOME LOW POPS FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57



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