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Area Forecast Discussion

826 
FXUS64 KLZK 261759
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1159 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

SKIES ARE RAPIDLY CLEARING LATE THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING OUT
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THAT TIME AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN A VFR DECK BETWEEN 4-6K FT AGL AT KHRO
AND KBPK AS VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING STRATOCU DECK
STREAMING SOUTH THROUGH ERN KANSAS AND WRN MISSOURI. WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS TO SEE IF ANY CTRL OR SRN SITES NEED TO BE AMENDED TO
INCLUDE THESE CIGS...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SKC THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE
WEST AT MOST SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND HOLD THERE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING FOR MOST ALL SITES. OTHERWISE THE ONLY OTHER
CONCERN IS THAT MODELS SHOW MVFR CIGS SPREADING SOUTH INTO NRN
SITES OVERNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE LOOKING AT OBS IN NRN
MISSOURI SO HAVE INCLUDED THESE AT KHRO AND KBPK BEGINNING AT 06Z
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE OVERCAST THIS MORNING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AS IT MOVES 
THROUGH THE REGION. ONLY VERY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN SEEN OVER 
NORTHERN AR SO FAR...AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY. ANY RAIN 
WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SE TODAY AND EXIT THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST WILL 
ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NE. TEMPS HAVE HELD 
AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTH...AND WILL 
AT LEAST WARM TO THE 40S TODAY. THE SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN 
IOWA WITH A COLD FRONT SE TO EASTERN KS AND OK THIS MORNING. THE 
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TODAY...WHILE THE COLD FRONT SAGS 
THROUGH THE STATE. SOUTH WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH AHEAD OF THE FRONT 
WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THEN W THEN NW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS COLD AIR 
ADVECTION SETTLES IN OVER AR. HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK A 
BIT IN THE OVERCAST CLOUD AREAS. LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FINE TUNE 
CLOUD COVER AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPERATURES MAY HAVE TO COME DOWN 
A FEW MORE DEGREES IF CLOUDS HOLD MORE. SOME THINNING AND SUNSHINE 
IS SEEN OVER EASTERN KS...WESTERN MO AND NORTHEAST OK...AND SOME 
SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO AR...ALBEIT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. (59)


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

NWLY FLOW ALOFT WL BRING A STRONG SHRTWV SEWD INTO THE REGION TODAY. 
MID AND HIGH LVL CLOUDS WL CONT TO INCRS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYS. 
EVEN THOUGH CONDS WL RMN QUITE DRY IN THE LOW LVLS...STILL CANNOT 
RULE OUT SOME PTCHY LGT RAIN OVR N-CNTRL AND NERN AR LATER THIS MRNG 
AND INTO THE AFTN HRS. CONTD TO FOLLOW THE TRENDS OF THE HIGH RES 
MODEL REGARDING TIMING OF RAIN CHCS.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE NATURAL STATE FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY 
WITH A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR. THE HIGH WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD...
ALLOWING SLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE FA BY FRI. THE RESULTING WARMING 
TREND WL EXTEND INTO THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH THE NWD RETURN TO GULF 
MOISTURE. FCST HIGH TEMPS BY SAT WL BE ABT 10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL FOR 
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY 

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BEFORE STALLING AND/OR 
WASHING OUT MONDAY. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ABOUT HOW FAR SOUTH 
THE BOUNDARY WILL GET...AND HAVE KEPT THE PREVIOUS TREND OF SMALL 
RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE 
NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM CONSIDERABLY 
ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH READINGS APPROACHING THE MID 70S. 
COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN MONDAY...WITH HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 40S 
ACROSS THE NORTH. HOWEVER...TEMPS WILL REBOUND SOME ON TUESDAY...AS 
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     49  29  45  30 /  20  10   0   0 
CAMDEN AR         62  34  53  33 /   0   0   0   0 
HARRISON AR       48  26  45  32 /  20   0   0   0 
HOT SPRINGS AR    55  31  52  33 /  10   0   0   0 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  52  32  49  32 /  10   0   0   0 
MONTICELLO AR     61  35  50  33 /   0   0   0   0 
MOUNT IDA AR      55  30  52  32 /  10   0   0   0 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  47  27  43  30 /  30  10   0   0 
NEWPORT AR        50  30  45  30 /  20  10   0   0 
PINE BLUFF AR     58  33  49  32 /  10   0   0   0 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   51  28  49  30 /  10   0   0   0 
SEARCY AR         51  29  46  29 /  10   0   0   0 
STUTTGART AR      55  31  47  31 /  10   0   0   0 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...64






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