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Area Forecast Discussion

576 
FXUS64 KLZK 301134 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
634 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with the exception
of temporary ifr fog in the Ouachita River Valley. This will be
especially true at Hot Springs, where lake effect fog has reduced
visby to LIFR conditions. This should scatter out once the
gradient increases. 

Otherwise, scattered showers and isolated storms will be possible,
mainly this afternoon, and at the northern and central terminals. 

TAFS have already been sent. 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016)

SHORT TERM...Today Through Friday Night
Some patchy fog will be possible this morning, primarily in the
Ouachita River Valley of southern and western Arkansas. This
should scatter out later this morning, after sunrise. Other than
that, should be a fairly average late June day today, with highs
in the mid 80s to mid 90s. 

Later today and tonight, a weak upper level system will pass
through in northwest flow aloft, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible (primarily in the northern half of the
area). 

Rain chances will be a little bit higher on Friday, as a frontal
boundary moves back into the region, and a stronger upper level
system moves through and interacts with it. 

LONG TERM...Saturday Through Wednesday
The upper level ridge to the west of the region will begin to shift
east at the start of the long term period...though will flatten
slightly as it moves east. The bulk of the upper level energy will
remain north of the state over the weekend as a result...keeping
most of the CWA dry. However...do keep some mention of precip across
the NRN counties through the weekend. These areas will see the
coolest temps...with generally near normal temps expected across the
NRN third of the state. Further south where precip will be lacking
and with more sunshine...expect temps to rise a few deg above
normal. 

By early next week...an upper level shortwave trough will move east
across the central CONUS...north of the state. As this
happens...will see precip chances drop further south as some
influence of this upper shortwave will drop into AR. With increased
POPs...will see some slightly cooler temps as more cloud cover will
be expected to start of the new week. 

These increased precip chances will be short lived as the upper
level ridge will begin to expand back over portions of the region.
As a result...precip chances will become lower...and temps will
warm. By the end of the forecast...expect generally 90s...with some
spots approaching the triple digit mark.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Aviation...57


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