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Area Forecast Discussion

667 
FXUS64 KLZK 221107 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
507 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

LOW CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME DZ WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING AS
MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH INTO THE STATE. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. RESULTING FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MVFR TO LIFR
THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. THROUGHOUT THE DAY...DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME
RAINFALL...BUT WILL LIKELY BE TOO SCATTERED TO MENTIONED MUCH MORE
THAN VCSH...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. LLQ MAY ALSO SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR TSRA WITH INSTABILITY A BIT HIGHER IN SERN AR THIS
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH WINDS SWITCHING AROUND TO THE WEST
AND NW. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 148 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AREAS THAT WERE SEEING A CLEAR SKY ON SUN EVENING HAVE SINCE SEEN 
CLOUDS RETURN AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INCREASING ACROSS THE 
REGION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
AXIS WEST OF THE STATE...AND WITH A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING EAST OVER 
THE STATE IN THE FLOW ALOFT. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY THIS 
MORNING...THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE AS TIME GOES 
ON. 

SFC FLOW WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THIS MON AS THE SW UPPER FLOW ALSO 
STRENGTHENS OVER THE STATE. KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE CWA 
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY SOME RAIN OR DRIZZLE EXPECTED. 
HOWEVER...PORTIONS OF SERN AR COULD SEE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA AS THIS 
WILL BE THE AREA WHERE THE NOSE OF THE HIGHER DEWPTS WILL BE THIS 
AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THIS REGION OF 
THE CWA...AND THERE COULD EVEN BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH THE 
HIGHER INSTABILITY POSSIBLE.

BY THIS MON EVENING...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER TROUGH 
DEPARTING TO THE NE OF THE STATE...WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SE ACROSS 
THE CWA. BEHIND THIS FRONT...EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO DIMINISH WITH 
THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...SOME SHRA AND TSRA WILL 
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SERN COUNTIES AS A RESULT OF 
THE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 

A LULL IN THE PRECIP WILL BE SEEN EARLY ON TUE AS THE FRONT WILL BE 
SE OF THE STATE...AND NO SIGNIFICANT UPPER WAVES WILL BE MOVING OVER 
AR IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIP CHANCES TO RETURN 
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF TUE AND INTO WED AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH 
DEEPENS FURTHER...AND SHIFTS EAST OVER THE STATE. AHEAD OF THIS 
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH...SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE 
GULF COAST AND LIFT NE FROM LA INTO NERN MS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE 
OH RIVER VALLEY REGION. AS THIS HAPPENS...AN ADDITIONAL WAVE OF 
PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SFC LOW UNDER THE UPPER 
VORT MAX LIFTING ACROSS AR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING. THE SYSTEM 
WILL THEN LIFT NE OF THE STATE BY WED NIGHT...WITH PRECIP CHANCES 
ENDING FROM SW TO NE. 

THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE LOOKS TO REMAIN RAIN ACROSS THE CWA TUE 
NIGHT INTO WED...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE WARM NEAR SFC TEMPS THE 
MODEL DATA KEEPS SUGGESTING. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE WILL 
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL TO DEVELOP ALOFT. THE QUESTION THEN 
BECOMES...WILL THE NEAR SFC WARM LAYER BE DEEP ENOUGH TO MELT ALL 
THE SNOW BEFORE IT REACHES THE SFC. HAVE MENTIONED A RAIN/SNOW MIX 
LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED MORNING AS THE NEAR SFC WARM LAYER MAY 
NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN...AND FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR CHANGES 
IN THE OVERALL VERTICAL TEMP PROFILE. WHILE MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST 
24 TO 36 HRS HAS TRANSITIONED BACK AND FORTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 
ANY WINTRY PRECIP...THE LATEST DATA IS AGAIN SUGGESTING A COLDER AND 
WETTER SOLUTION FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST FORECAST AT THIS TIME 
WILL RESULT IN MAINLY RAINFALL...WITH SOME WET SNOW POSSIBLE AROUND 
SUNRISE WED MORNING. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE UNDER THE MAIN 
UPPER VORT MAX WHERE LIFT AND PRECIP INTENSITY MAY BE 
HIGHEST...ALONG WITH THE COLDEST AIR THROUGH THE VERTICAL COLUMN. 

AS YOU MAY HAVE FIGURED OUT WITH THE ABOVE DISCUSSION...THERE 
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN WHAT PRECIP TYPE AND HOW MUCH..IF 
ANY...WINTRY PRECIP ACCUMULATION WILL BE SEEN AT THE SFC. AS A 
RESULT...EXPECT REFINEMENTS AND CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HRS REGARDING ANY WINTRY WX AND IF ANY IMPACTS WILL BE 
SEEN. QUIETER...ALTHOUGH COOLER CONDITIONS...WILL BE SEEN FOR THE END 
OF THE PERIOD...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SRLY SFC FLOW 
RETURNING.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON CHRISTMAS 
NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS FRONT WILL 
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WITH UPPER 
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...THE FRONT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN 
QUITE A BIT...AND WITH SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW BRINGING MOISTURE FROM 
THE PACIFIC AND UPLIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION. THE BOUNDARY 
WILL MOVE EAST BY SUNDAY...AS THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOVES 
NORTHEASTWARD...AND TROUGHING DIGS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     55  44  51  36 /  40  20  30  50 
CAMDEN AR         62  49  56  39 /  30  20  50  50 
HARRISON AR       53  38  48  32 /  40  20  20  30 
HOT SPRINGS AR    58  46  52  36 /  30  20  40  30 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  59  47  53  37 /  30  20  40  50 
MONTICELLO AR     62  51  58  40 /  40  30  50  60 
MOUNT IDA AR      57  44  51  34 /  30  20  40  20 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  54  41  49  34 /  40  20  20  30 
NEWPORT AR        57  45  52  36 /  40  20  40  60 
PINE BLUFF AR     61  49  55  38 /  30  20  50  60 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   56  43  51  35 /  40  20  30  20 
SEARCY AR         57  44  52  37 /  40  20  40  50 
STUTTGART AR      59  47  54  38 /  30  20  50  60 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...62




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