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Area Forecast Discussion

291 
FXUS64 KLZK 301904
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
204 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

RAIN WAS INCREASING OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS 
IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTERACTING 
WITH A STALLED FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST.

RAIN WILL CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS 
INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...ONE TO 
TWO INCH AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN THIS AREA...WITH LOCALLY OVER THREE 
INCHES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED.

DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING THURSDAY...AREAS OF RAIN WILL 
REMAIN...BUT INTENSITIES WILL DECREASE. CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN THE 
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE 
STATE.

GIVEN CLOUDS/RAIN...TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF 
THE 60S IN PLACES...WITH 70S COMMON IN MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IS WELL 
BELOW NORMAL...WITH SOME RECORD COOL HIGHS FOR THE MONTH POSSIBLY 
BROKEN.

OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...WE WILL 
START DRYING OUT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL START 
WARMING UP...BUT READINGS WILL STAY SUBPAR.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF THE LONG 
TERM AS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH WILL 
BE LIFTING NE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MORE OF A WEAK NORTH FLOW OVER 
THE STATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND FROM THE WEST. 
INITIALLY...TEMPS WILL PERSIST AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS...BUT SOME 
GRADUAL WARMING WILL BE SEEN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS UPPER RIDGE 
ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND OVER AR. LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE AT 
THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH MOST INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SEEN 
ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. HOWEVER...BEYOND THIS TIMEFRAME...ANOTHER 
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE REGION...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN AND 
COOLING TEMPS POSSIBLE FOR LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  74  62  83 /  60  70  20  20 
CAMDEN AR         67  76  63  83 /  40  70  40  30 
HARRISON AR       61  74  60  82 /  70  50  20  20 
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  72  62  83 /  90  90  30  20 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  65  74  62  83 /  90  90  30  20 
MONTICELLO AR     62  76  64  83 /  40  70  50  30 
MOUNT IDA AR      64  72  61  82 /  90  90  20  20 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  75  61  82 /  60  60  20  20 
NEWPORT AR        63  75  62  83 /  50  70  20  20 
PINE BLUFF AR     65  74  63  83 /  50  80  40  30 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   66  73  61  83 / 100  80  20  20 
SEARCY AR         64  76  62  83 /  80  90  20  20 
STUTTGART AR      65  76  63  83 /  70  90  30  30 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY 
MORNING FOR GARLAND-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-SCOTT-YELL.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...46 / LONG TERM...62




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