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Area Forecast Discussion

608 
FXUS64 KLZK 180508
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1208 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT IN THE
CENTRAL AND EAST SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND ARE GENERALLY WEAKENING IN ARKANSAS.
ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/ 

AVIATION...
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING..AND HAVE VCTS
IN THE TWO WESTERN TAFS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE...HAVE VCSH
ACROSS THE NORTH. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BECOME IFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 149 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ONGOING ACROSS SRN MO IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE 
AS THE STRONGEST CELLS ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THIS COMPLEX DROPS SOUTH 
INTO AR. SEVERAL OF THE RECENT RUNS OF THE HIGH-RES HRRR HAVE DONE A
REASONABLE JOB ON THESE FEATURES...AND SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DROPPING
GENERALLY SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HRS. EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO GENERALLY FOLLOW THE HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS
THE WRN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE WHERE MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1-3K J/KG AT THIS HR. AS A RESULT...DO
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OVER THE NRN AND NWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THEN DROPPING SOUTH TO SW OVER TIME LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SOLUTIONS EVEN KEEP THIS ACTIVITY GOING
INTO THE SWRN SECTIONS OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...SO HAVE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH POPS. HOWEVER...DO DROP POPS
OVER TIME AS UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AN INTENSITY INCREASES BY
LATE THIS EVENING REGARDING THIS ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

BEYOND THIS EVENING...THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF WHAT MAY BE THE 
NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE STATE BECOMES A BIT 
UNCERTAIN. EARLIER SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE THE NEXT WAVE 
MOVING OVER LATE TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE THE 
CASE WITH THE ONGOING ACTIVITY AND ITS EXPECTED PATH. THE NEXT WAVE 
MAY BE DELAYED A BIT LONGER...BUT MAY ALSO NOT BE AS INTENSE AS 
EARLIER EXPECTED. WITH THAT SAID...CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LOCATION 
OF CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THU...BUT HAVE DECREASED POPS SOME AS A 
RESULT OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN/WHERE THE NEXT WAVE MAY MOVE. 

BY FRI INTO EARLY SAT...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE 
REGION...DECREASING POPS AND INCREASING TEMPS ACROSS THE STATE. BY 
LATE IN THE PERIOD THOUGH...HAVE INCREASING POPS WITH THE APPROACH 
OF AN UPPER LOW OR THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AS THEY APPROACH FROM THE 
WEST/NW.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE AT THE START 
OF THE LONG TERM...WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE 
AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH...LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS SEEM 
LESS AMBITIOUS ABOUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN THE STATE.

AS RAIN CHANCES DISSIPATE BY MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE 
STATE. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY NORMAL TO 
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LATTER PART OF SEPTEMBER IN ARKANSAS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD 
AND A COOL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     62  83  63  87 /  10  10  10  10 
CAMDEN AR         68  89  69  90 /  20  10  10  10 
HARRISON AR       61  80  63  82 /  10  10  10  20 
HOT SPRINGS AR    67  85  67  86 /  20  10  10  20 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  86  66  88 /  20  10  10  10 
MONTICELLO AR     67  88  68  89 /  20  10  10  10 
MOUNT IDA AR      65  84  67  86 /  20  10  10  20 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  60  81  63  84 /  10  10  10  20 
NEWPORT AR        61  83  62  87 /  10  10  10  10 
PINE BLUFF AR     66  87  66  89 /  20  10  10  10 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   65  84  66  86 /  10  10  10  20 
SEARCY AR         63  83  64  87 /  10  10  10  10 
STUTTGART AR      65  85  64  87 /  20  10  10  10 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

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