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Area Forecast Discussion

223 
FXUS64 KLZK 160832
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
332 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
INCREASED DEWPOINTS...AS WELL AS INCREASED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...
HAVE LED TO MUCH LESS OF A FREEZE/FROST RISK THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. HOWEVER...BECAUSE SOME LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY CLOSE TO
FREEZING IN VARIOUS PART OF THE AREA...WILL LET THE ADVISORY AND
WARNING RIDE FOR NOW. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. SOUTH WINDS WILL RETURN...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK
INTO THE 60S AND 70S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY...WITH SMALL
RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST...AS A FAIRLY QUICK-
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. 
&&

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FLATTEN 
OUT SOMEWHAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ONLY TO TRANSITION BACK 
TO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW BY EARLY TUESDAY AS ANOTHER DEEP UPPER 
TROUGH MOVES ON SHORE OUT WEST. SUCH A PATTERN EVOLUTION MEANS 
TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL BETWEEN MODELS...AND THIS IS 
THE CASE THIS MORNING. AS SUCH LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE LONG 
TERM FORECAST...WHICH LARGELY FOLLOWS THE 4-16-14 00Z GFS SOLUTION.

AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE DEPARTING THE 
REGION TO THE EAST INITIALLY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM SET TO MOVE IN 
AND IMPACT THE STATE SOMETIME SUNDAY. TAPERED RAIN CHANCES BACK JUST 
A TAD TO REFLECT POSSIBILITY OF SLOWER TIMING LIKE THE EUROPEAN 
MODEL IS SHOWING...BUT EXPECT THAT BY SUNDAY NIGHT AT LEAST CHANCE 
POPS WILL BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIPITATION WILL 
LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY BUT IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED 
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES ON 
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN AROUND NORMAL DURING THE LONG 
TERM.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     59  36  66  45 /   0   0  10  20 
CAMDEN AR         64  39  69  47 /   0   0  10  20 
HARRISON AR       60  37  64  47 /   0   0  10  20 
HOT SPRINGS AR    62  40  67  48 /   0   0  10  20 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  62  42  69  49 /   0   0  10  20 
MONTICELLO AR     65  41  69  50 /   0   0  10  20 
MOUNT IDA AR      63  36  66  43 /   0   0  10  20 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  37  66  45 /   0   0  10  20 
NEWPORT AR        60  39  66  48 /   0   0  10  20 
PINE BLUFF AR     62  42  68  50 /   0   0  10  20 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  37  68  45 /   0   0  10  20 
SEARCY AR         59  36  69  46 /   0   0  10  20 
STUTTGART AR      60  43  67  51 /   0   0  10  20 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
CLEBURNE-FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF.

FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARKANSAS-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER- GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI- SALINE-
SCOTT-YELL.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57 / LONG TERM...64




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