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Area Forecast Discussion

600 
FXUS64 KLZK 302311
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
611 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
AREA OF -SHRA ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS WILL CLEAR BY 0030Z. NWLY
NEAR SFC FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ALL SITES BY 03Z...AND WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT 15-20 KTS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z.

55

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/ 

UPDATE...
ADDED CLOUDS AND SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST 
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH EARLY THIS 
EVENING. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK. (46)

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ONCE AGAIN...ALL THE SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER 
PATTERN BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OVERLY PROGRESSIVE WITH TIME. 
MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT ENOUGH AGREEMENT...BOTH WITH EACH OTHER AND 
BETWEEN THEIR CONSECUTIVE RUNS...THAT A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS IS 
PREFERRED THIS AFTERNOON.

RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS AS A WEAK 
TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH. TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS REMAIN LARGE 
ENOUGH THAT IF ANY THING DOES FALL...IT WOULD JUST BE SOME SPRINKLES 
AND NO POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST 
OKLAHOMA WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE 
OVERNIGHT HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE INITIAL ONE 
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY USHERING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON TO 
DATE...COURTESY OF A VERY COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CELL DROPPING 
INCH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH EACH RUN AND CURRENT FREEZE 
WATCH ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE EXPANDED TO A FREEZE WARNING WITH A 
NEW FREEZE WATCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. IF MODELS CONTINUE TO COME IN 
COLDER...THE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH.

COME EARLY FRIDAY...PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY RIDGING OVER THE 
FOUR CORNERS AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE 
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. A SECOND TROUGH WILL BE JUST OFF THE 
WEST COAST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND 
SATURDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. IT WILL BE A QUICK 
COOL DOWN THOUGH AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE HIGH 
IS PUSHED EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS EARLY AS 
SUNDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. 

THE AFOREMENTIONED WESTERN TROUGH WILL MOVE ONTO THE FOUR CORNERS 
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN 
ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM BUT PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE 
EXTENDED PERIOD.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION IN THE 
EXTENDED...WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO 
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH 
HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN CONCERN...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL 
BE POSSIBLE. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THE FRONT...AND 
HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     69  47  57  31 /  20  10   0   0 
CAMDEN AR         74  47  67  32 /  10   0   0   0 
HARRISON AR       71  42  52  25 /  20  10   0   0 
HOT SPRINGS AR    71  47  64  31 /  20   0   0   0 
LITTLE ROCK   AR  73  48  62  32 /  20  10   0   0 
MONTICELLO AR     76  49  64  34 /  20   0   0   0 
MOUNT IDA AR      72  46  63  30 /  10   0   0   0 
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  70  44  51  27 /  20  10   0   0 
NEWPORT AR        69  48  58  33 /  20  10   0   0 
PINE BLUFF AR     73  49  64  34 /  20   0   0   0 
RUSSELLVILLE AR   73  45  60  31 /  10  10   0   0 
SEARCY AR         70  48  59  31 /  20  10   0   0 
STUTTGART AR      72  50  60  33 /  20  10   0   0 
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR 
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-FAULKNER-GARLAND-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-LONOKE-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-POLK-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY 
FOR BAXTER-BOONE-FULTON-IZARD-JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-POPE-
SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN.

&&

$$


AVIATION...99




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