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Area Forecast Discussion

561 
FXUS64 KLZK 250545 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1245 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE MAINLY 
OVER SE AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH OVERALL MVFR 
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF IFR WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAIN WILL 
CLEAR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AR THROUGH MORNING WITH MVFR AND AT TIMES 
VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL START SE TO SW AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND 
GRADUALLY BECOME SW THROUGH THE MORNING. A LOW LEVEL JET IS ALSO 
OVER AR AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE SEEN IN THE LOW LEVELS. TOWARD 
MORNING AND ON SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL BECOME SW TO W TO NW 
AND BECOME 10 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. CONDITIONS 
WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ALL VFR ON SATURDAY. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/ 

SYNOPSIS...
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WARM FRONT STILL LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND STILL STRUGGLING 
TO MAKE ITS ANTICIPATED PUSH INTO ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN 
MUCH COOLER THAN EXPECTED CONDITIONS. STILL EXPECTING THE BOUNDARY 
TO MAKE ITS MOVE BUT NOW LIKELY AFTER DARK AND SITUATION COULD BE 
ONE WHERE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD 
COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK AND HAVE ALSO STABILIZED THE 
ATMOSPHERE. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT STRONG CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT 
BUT IF IT DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE SOUTH ARKANSAS WOULD THE AREA MOST 
SUSCEPTIBLE TO SEEING SEVERE STORMS.

EXPECTING RAINFALL TO END LATE TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD ON TO SOME 
CHANCES OVER THE EAST FOR EARLY IN THE DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S WITH A STOUT SOUTHWEST WIND 
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING 
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON 
SATURDAY.

TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE BUT NOT UNTIL 
SUNDAY. NO PRECIPITATION...OCCASIONAL CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES 
ARE EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FROPA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY 
WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO THE FORECAST STARTING IN THE MID TO 
LATE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD. 
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUXUATE WILDLY WITH CONDITIONS BORDERING ON HOT 
SATURDAY WITH A COOL DOWN EXPECTED OM SUNDAY AND COOLER YET ON 
MONDAY. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO MAV/MEX NUMBERS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN THE 
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE APPROACHING THE ROCKIES. THE UPPER LOW 
WILL MOVE INTO THE MID WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE GREAT LAKES 
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND 
OVER ARKANSAS FRIDAY. 

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING OVER ARKANSAS 
TUESDAY MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE GULF 
TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS 
THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AS 
THE LOW MOVES EAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL BE NOTED 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$






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