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Area Forecast Discussion

966 
FXUS64 KLZK 032333 AAA
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
633 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECTING A DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET. ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SITES. MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SITES DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT FELL TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN CONVECTION LOCATION
SATURDAY...AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/ 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN MOVED ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE TODAY 
BRINGING AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN A MATTER OF JUST A COUPLE OF 
HOURS. THIS PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS TO BE ISSUED. CLOUDS HAVE 
REMAINED OVERCAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF 
THE STATE WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO SCATTER A BIT DURING THE 
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A 
RESULT...TEMPERATURES WERE HELD REASONABLY IN CHECK WITH READINGS 
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS BEGINNING TO SAG INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS WITH 
THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS SOUTHEAST 
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF 
THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF AFTER DARK. 
UNLIKE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT PERIODS...DO EXPECT MINIMAL PRECIPITATION 
TO OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO NOT LOOK AS WET AS 
IT ONCE DID. CONTINUED TO TRIM BACK POPS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN 
ARKANSAS...THOUGH IT DOES STILL CONTINUE TO LOOK THAT THE BEST 
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE 
UPPER LEVEL LOW WEAKENING AND RAIN CHANCES...WHILE NOT 
ZERO...DECREASING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY 
DRIVEN AND EXPECTED DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THIS TREND WILL 
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE 
STATE IN THE LONG TERM.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DID GO AND 
INCREASE MAX TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...TO COINCIDE WITH THE DECREASING OF POPS. 

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

PERIOD STARTS OFF UNSETTLED WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING DOWN 
FROM THE NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND 
INTENSITY OF THIS WAVE AND A BLEND OF SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED THROUGH 
OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

WAVE DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT ONTO THE STATE BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO 
THE NORTH AND WASHING OUT AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO 
REBUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES 
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH UNTIL RIDGE BECOMES THE 
DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD. 

EVEN SO.. DIURNALLY DRIVEN PRECIPITATION CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH 
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO...OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN 
MOST AREAS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58



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