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Area Forecast Discussion

648 
FXUS64 KLZK 261948
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
248 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Thursday

Convection through this evening will be largely beneath a
deformation axis stretching from southern Oklahoma, through
northwest Arkasnas, and into southeastern Missouri. The highest
rain chances will be in those areas. Outside of this region some
isolated showers and thunderstorms through the evening hours
cannot be ruled out and the rain chances reflect this.

Overnight and into Wednesday a weak low will move north from the
central gulf coast along the Mississippee River Valley. The lift
from this feature along with a reinforcing shot of high
precipitable water values should produce fairly widespread
convection tomorrow. The aforementioned deformation zone, along
with height falls associated with this low, will produce some
scattered nocturnal convection that will be present before
daybreak but better rain chances will be during the late morning
and afternoon hours...especially in the east and southeast. This
upper low will be kicked out of the region late Thursday as upper
flow across the central and southern plains becomes increasingly
northwesterly in nature and the low gets caught up in the
developing trough. The act of this being kicked off to the east
though will mean another round of convection late Wednesday night
into Thursday morning.

The increase in cloud cover and rainfall tomorrow should preclude
the need for another heat advisory...though muggy conditions will
continue. Similar conditions will be present Thursday as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday night Through Tuesday

Gulf system will still be close to the area at the beginning of the
period, leaving scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
This will keep clouds over the region which should keep high
temperatures a little closer to seasonal averages, though lows will
still be pretty warm. 

By Friday/Saturday, Gulf system will be east of the area, but
another fairly potent shortwave will drop down in northwest flow
aloft. This will likely give at least the northeast half of the
state a chance at an MCS or two Friday night through Sunday. 

By early next week, the upper ridge will start to attempt to rear
its ugly head, decreasing rain chances, and increasing temperatures
(though it doesn't look overly hot at this point). Don't get me
wrong, humidity will remain high, and it will still feel disgusting
at times. After all, it is summer in Arkansas, right? 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     74  92  75  89 /  20  60  40  50 
Camden AR         75  87  74  87 /  30  60  40  60 
Harrison AR       72  90  72  89 /  20  50  40  50 
Hot Springs AR    75  90  73  88 /  20  60  40  60 
Little Rock   AR  77  91  74  89 /  20  60  40  60 
Monticello AR     76  88  74  85 /  30  60  40  60 
Mount Ida AR      73  90  73  89 /  20  60  40  50 
Mountain Home AR  73  92  73  90 /  20  50  40  50 
Newport AR        76  91  74  89 /  20  60  40  60 
Pine Bluff AR     75  88  74  87 /  30  60  40  60 
Russellville AR   75  94  74  91 /  20  60  40  50 
Searcy AR         75  91  74  89 /  20  60  40  60 
Stuttgart AR      76  89  74  87 /  20  60  40  60 
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-Bradley-
Calhoun-Clark-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-Drew-Faulkner-Grant-
Hot Spring-Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-
Perry-Prairie-Pulaski-Saline-White-Woodruff.

&&

$$

Short Term...64 / Long Term...57


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