Area Forecast Discussion
133
FXUS64 KLZK 191140
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
640 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.AVIATION...19/12Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG NOTED ACRS MAINLY SRN AR EARLY THIS MRNG...WITH OCNL
MVFR VSBYS REPORTED AT THE TAF SITES. WL CONT TO INDC MVFR/OCNL
IFR CONDS FOR A FEW HRS THIS MRNG BEFORE MIXING COMMENCES AND FOG
DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL THRU THE
REMAINDER OF THE PD. LGT WINDS THIS MRNG WL BCM E/SELY AT 5 TO 8
KTS BY THIS AFTN. /44/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS ALL OF THE
CWA...AND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...SOME PATCHY FOG WAS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW
60S TO LOW 70S. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES BY
SUNRISE...WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG.
COLD FRONT STALLED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR PRECIP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE CWA TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...HAVE MENTIONED
LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOME OF THE NRN AND NERN COUNTIES
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE AREA. A SIMILAR SITUATION WILL
BE SEEN TOMORROW AS PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY LOW...WITH ONLY
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NWRN COUNTIES AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATES AROUND THE NORTH EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE
TO THE SW OVER SWRN TX. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NWRN
COUNTIES...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIP POTENTIAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS NO SIGNIFICANT
FORCING OR DISTURBANCES WILL BE MOVING OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE SW BEGINS EXPANDING INTO AR.
TEMPS WILL WARM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S...THEN A
FEW DEGREES WARMER BY THU AND PERSISTING IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
INTO SAT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S EACH MORNING.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MODELS CONT TO INDC A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN ACRS THE MID SOUTH
THRU THE PD. HIGH PRES ALOFT WL PERSIST ACRS THE SOUTHERN STATES.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY DURG THE AFTN AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED...DRY
CONDS WL CONT TO BE INDCD. TEMPS WL RMN CLOSE TO OR JUST ABV NORMAL
LVLS...WITH HIGH IN THE UPR 80S TO MID 90S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
UPR 60S TO MID 70S.
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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