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Area Forecast Discussion

370 
FXUS64 KLZK 260605
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
105 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2014

.AVIATION...26/06Z TAF CYCLE

AREA OF FOG WL CONT TO REDUCE VSBYS IN AREAS THRU THE OVERNIGHT
HRS...WITH IMPROVING CONDS AFT SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS WL
BE NOTED...WITH OCNL IFR/LIFR IN A FEW LOCATIONS. VFR CONDS WL
RETURN BY LATE SUN MRNG THRU THE REST OF THE PD. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014/

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AM...TEMPERATURE WARM UP THROUGH MONDAY...THEN CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MORNING FOG DID DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND WITH
CONTINUED SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN HAVE IT
IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE SKIES ARE SUNNY TODAY WITH TEMPS
WARMING TO THE UPPER 70S AND MAINLY 80S STATE WIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN S TO SW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THE UPPER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE WESTERN PLAINS HAS 
BUILT IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. AND WILL KEEP THE DRY AND WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS GOING THIS WEEKEND. 

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AGAIN SOME FOG
FORMATION...MAINLY IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL AR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
IN THE 50S TO SOME AROUND 60 DEGREES. WARM AND SUNNY FOR SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN A BIT MORE OVER THE REGION. HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S. SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN AND MOVES EAST. SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS SEEN ON
MONDAY AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN. MONDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY...THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AR. SLIGHT CHANCES ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NW...THEN BETTER CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO AR. AR THIS TIME
SEVERE STORM THREAT APPEARS LOW AND ISOLATED. MODEL TIMING HAS THE
FRONT INTO NW AR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
THE STATE AND NOT PUSHING OUT UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SPEED WILL BE A BIT
SLOW. TEMPS WILL COOL BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S...WHILE LOWS FROM THE 40S TO 50S. 

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA CONTINUED INTO WED FOR S AR AS COLD FRONT 
BEGINS TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH. PCPN SHOULD BE SE OF 
THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT SHORT WAVE ON THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BRING ONLY CLOUDS...AS THE 
BULK OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN CLEARED OUT BY THE COLD FRONT.

AFTER THAT...NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL. ALTHOUGH LONGER RANGE 
MODELS ARE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT...IT DOES APPEAR THAT 
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF AR. THUS...ANY WEAK WAVES DIVING 
DOWN IN THE NWLY FLOW SHOULD BRING ONLY CLOUDS.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$




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