ZCZC LITWRKPNS
TTAA00 KLIT 050552
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-162000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 AM CST MON NOV 16 2015

...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER...

NOVEMBER 16TH THROUGH 20TH IS WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK
IN ARKANSAS. PEOPLE ARE ASKED TO TAKE SOME TIME TO PREPARE 
FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER SEASON.

TODAYS TOPIC IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER.

OVERALL...WINTER AROUND HERE HAS NOT EXACTLY BEEN COLD IN THE 
LAST THIRTY YEARS. SINCE THE WINTER OF 1987-88...WINTER 
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW NORMAL ONLY SIX TIMES IN LITTLE ROCK. 
HOWEVER...IT HAS BEEN COLD RECENTLY. MERCURY READINGS IN FOUR 
OF THE LAST SIX WINTERS WERE SUBPAR. 

THE LAST TWO /2013-2014 AND 2014-2015/ CLIMATOLOGICAL WINTERS 
/DECEMBER THROUGH FEBRUARY/ WERE COLDER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL 
ACROSS THE STATE. 

WINTER      AVG TEMP  DEPARTURE   PRECIPITATION   DEPARTURE

2013/2014     38.0      -3.3         10.40         -1.72
2014/2015     39.4      -1.9          9.69         -2.43

DATA DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS COLD AND DRY TREND CONTINUING. 
SINCE 1895...ARKANSAS HAS EXPERIENCED THREE COLD WINTERS IN A ROW 
ONLY TWICE...AND THREE CONSECUTIVE DRY WINTERS ONLY THREE TIMES. 
IN THIS CASE...COLD IS DEFINED AS AT LEAST 1.5 DEGREES 
BELOW NORMAL AND DRY IS AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A STRONG EL NINO...WHICH FEATURES
ABOVE NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE EQUATOR IN THE PACIFIC 
OCEAN. FIVE OF THE LAST SEVEN EL NINO WINTERS WERE NORMAL TO MILD
IN ARKANSAS...AND ALL EL NINOS WERE NORMAL /WITHIN AN INCH/ TO
WET.

SIGNS ARE POINTING TO A MILD AND WET PATTERN AHEAD...BUT HOLD
ON. DURING A TEXTBOOK EL NINO...MILDER THAN NORMAL WINTERS ARE
USUALLY FOUND UP NORTH...AND IT IS COLDER THAN USUAL IN THE 
SOUTHERN STATES. IT IS DRY IN THE NORTH AND WET IN THE SOUTH.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...WHICH PUTS OUT THE OFFICIAL
WINTER FORECAST EACH YEAR...IS GOING WITH THE TEXTBOOK 
SOLUTION. SO...IN ARKANSAS...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR 
A NORMAL TO WET SEASON AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MINUS 
CATEGORY.    

WHATEVER HAPPENS...WE ALL KNOW THAT THE WEATHER CAN BE ALL
OVER THE PLACE IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD. IT CAN FEEL LIKE
SPRING IN JANUARY...AND IT CAN GET REALLY COLD. THAT IS AN
ORDINARY WINTER IN ARKANSAS. DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING 
DIFFERENT THIS TIME AROUND.

IF THERE IS MORE PRECIPITATION THAN AVERAGE...WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR THREE THINGS. IF WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A WARM
PERIOD...BE WARY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE NOT
UNUSUAL. IF THERE IS A LOT OF RAIN...THEN FLOODING CAN 
BECOME A PROBLEM. FINALLY...GIVEN A WELL TIMED SHOT OF
SUBFREEZING AIR...THAT IS A RECIPE FOR A BIG SNOW OR ICE STORM.  

THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS WINTERTIME NORMALS FOR ARKANSAS. 

CITY	        NORMAL HIGH      NORMAL LOW     NORMAL PRECIPITATION
BENTONVILLE         48.0            25.3                8.67
EUREKA SPRINGS      47.9            28.1                8.96
FAYETTEVILLE        47.7            26.1`               8.85
HARRISON            48.3            28.3                8.40
MOUNTAIN HOME       47.9            27.5               10.30
JONESBORO           48.2            28.1               12.03
FORT SMITH          52.3            31.1                8.86
BATESVILLE          51.0            26.9               11.48
NEWPORT             47.8            31.0               12.44
RUSSELLVILLE        52.9            30.6               11.59
SEARCY              51.1            29.2               12.28
CONWAY              51.5            29.5               12.18
MENA                51.5            29.6               12.84
HOT SPRINGS         52.4            33.3               13.30
LITTLE ROCK         52.6            33.1               12.18
NORTH LITTLE ROCK   51.7            34.7               12.09
PINE BLUFF          53.4            33.9               14.10
CAMDEN              56.5            32.2               14.12
MAGNOLIA            56.2            33.3               14.07
MONTICELLO          55.4            35.6               15.30
WARREN              54.8            33.4               15.84 
TEXARKANA           56.0            35.8               12.44       
EL DORADO           56.6            34.8               14.27

&&

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR ARKANSAS CAN BE
FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=WINFCST1516.HTM

$$

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