ZCZC LITWRKPNS
TTAA00 KLIT 050552
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-172000-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER...

NOVEMBER 17TH THROUGH 21ST IS WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK
IN ARKANSAS...AND IT HAS BEEN SO PROCLAIMED BY GOVERNOR MIKE
BEBEE. SPONSORS OF THE AWARENESS WEEK ARE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...THE ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...ENTERGY ARKANSAS...THE ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES
OF ARKANSAS...THE ARKANSAS NATIONAL GUARD...THE ARKANSAS
STATE POLICE...AND THE AMERICAN RED CROSS.

PEOPLE ARE ASKED TO TAKE SOME TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING 
WINTER SEASON.

TODAYS TOPIC IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER.

LAST WINTER IN ARKANSAS...TEMPERATURES WERE COLDER THAN NORMAL 
IN ALL PARTS OF THE STATE...GENERALLY FROM 2 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW 
NORMAL. TOTAL PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY SOMEWHAT BELOW 
NORMAL...EXCEPT FOR SOME PLACES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER
OF ARKANSAS.

THE BIGGEST WEATHER STORIES THIS PAST WINTER WAS THE COLD 
WEATHER...AND THE NUMBER OF OCCASIONS ON WHICH WINTRY
PRECIPITATION FELL AND RESULTED IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

SINCE THE WINTER OF 1987-88...ONLY THE WINTERS OF 2000-01... 
2002-03...2009-10...2010-11...AND 2013-14 HAVE AVERAGED BELOW 
NORMAL ON TEMPERATURES IN LITTLE ROCK. 

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER /THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER...
JANUARY...AND FEBRUARY/ INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
TREND BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THE
WINTER WILL BE AS COLD AS THE ONE OF 2013-14. PRECIPITATION
PROSPECTS ARE NOT AS CLEAR...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW OR
ABOVE NORMAL AMOUNTS. WHILE SUCH AN OUTLOOK DOES NOT 
AUTOMATICALLY MEAN THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...IN SUCH A WEATHER PATTERN...AMOUNTS ARE NOT USUALLY
TOO FAR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL.

OVERALL...EL NINO CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AND THE EL NINO
WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING WEAK. EL NINO IS THE
WARMING OF THE OCEAN WATERS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC 
IN SOME YEARS. 

IN YEARS PAST WHEN WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS HAVE EXISTED...
ARKANSAS WINTERS HAVE BEEN BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL ON
TEMPERATURES...AND HAVE USUALLY BEEN NEAR OR SOMEWHAT ABOVE
NORMAL ON PRECIPITATION.

MANY PEOPLE HAVE WONDERED WHAT EFFECT THE BELOW-NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS YEAR WILL HAVE ON THE WINTER. 
ACTUALLY...SIMILAR EL NINO YEARS IN THE PAST DO NOT YIELD
A VERY GOOD INDICATION. IN SOME EL NINO YEARS THAT WERE COOL
TO BEGIN WITH...THE FOLLOWING WINTER ENDED UP CLOSE TO NORMAL
OR DID A COMPLETE TURNAROUND AND ENDED UP WARMER THAN NORMAL. 

ALL IN ALL...IT IS SAFE TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE SOME BOUTS
OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE COMING MONTHS...BUT INDICATIONS
ARE NOT STRONG AS TO WHETHER THIS WILL TREND MORE TOWARD ICE
OR SNOW.

ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COMES INTO PLAY...FROM TIME TO TIME...IN THE 
WEATHER THAT OCCURS DURING THE WINTER IS THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION. 
THIS IS A PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE ARCTIC REGION. WHEN THE ARCTIC 
OSCILLATION IS NEGATIVE...COLD AIR SPILLS DOWN FROM THE POLAR 
REGIONS. IF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS POSITIVE...A PERIOD OF ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PREVAILS.

THE DIFFICULTY IN MAKING LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS IS THAT WHAT
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS GOING TO DO CAN GENERALLY BE FORESEEN
ONLY A COUPLE OF WEEKS IN ADVANCE. THUS...EVEN IF THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION WERE GOING TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR THIS COMING
WINTER...THAT COULD NOT BE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.

THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS WINTERTIME NORMALS FOR ARKANSAS. 

CITY	        NORMAL HIGH      NORMAL LOW     NORMAL PRECIPITATION
BENTONVILLE         48.0            25.3                8.67
EUREKA SPRINGS      47.9            28.1                8.96
FAYETTEVILLE        47.7            26.1`               8.85
HARRISON            48.3            28.3                8.40
MOUNTAIN HOME       47.9            27.5               10.30
JONESBORO           48.2            28.1               12.03
FORT SMITH          52.3            31.1                8.86
BATESVILLE          51.0            26.9               11.48
NEWPORT             47.8            31.0               12.44
RUSSELLVILLE        52.9            30.6               11.59
SEARCY              51.1            29.2               12.28
CONWAY              51.5            29.5               12.18
MENA                51.5            29.6               12.84
HOT SPRINGS         52.4            33.3               13.30
LITTLE ROCK         52.6            33.1               12.18
NORTH LITTLE ROCK   51.7            34.7               12.09
PINE BLUFF          53.4            33.9               14.10
CAMDEN              56.5            32.2               14.12
MAGNOLIA            56.2            33.3               14.07
MONTICELLO          55.4            35.6               15.30
WARREN              54.8            33.4               15.84 
TEXARKANA           56.0            35.8               12.44       
EL DORADO           56.6            34.8               14.27

&&

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR ARKANSAS CAN BE
FOUND AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=WINLOOK1415.HTM  /MUST BE 
IN LOWER CASE LETTERS/

$$

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