ZCZC LITWRKPNS
TTAA00 KLIT 050552
ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-122000-
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
600 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012
...THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER...
NOVEMBER 12TH THROUGH 16TH IS WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS WEEK
IN ARKANSAS...AND IT HAS BEEN SO PROCLAIMED BY GOVERNOR MIKE
BEBEE. SPONSORS OF THE AWARENESS WEEK ARE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...THE ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT...ENTERGY ARKANSAS...THE ELECTRIC COOPERATIVES
OF ARKANSAS...THE ARKANSAS NATIONAL GUARD...THE ARKANSAS
STATE POLICE...AND THE AMERICAN RED CROSS.
PEOPLE ARE ASKED TO TAKE SOME TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING
WINTER SEASON.
TODAYS TOPIC IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE UPCOMING WINTER.
LAST WINTER IN ARKANSAS...TEMPERATURES WERE ABOVE NORMAL IN ALL
PARTS OF THE STATE...WITH MANY PLACES BEING 3 TO 4.5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. TOTAL PRECIPITATION WAS NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM
NORMAL...WITH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE STATE AND SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS BEING A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL...AND MOST OTHER SECTIONS
BEING A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.
THE TWO BIGGEST WEATHER STORIES THIS PAST WINTER WERE THE
UNUSUALLY MILD WEATHER...AND THE MINIMAL AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE.
SINCE THE WINTER OF 1987-88...ONLY THE WINTERS OF 2000-01...
2002-03...2009-10...AND 2010-11 HAVE AVERAGED BELOW NORMAL ON
TEMPERATURES IN LITTLE ROCK.
THE OFFICIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR
THE UPCOMING WINTER INDICATES THAT TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ARE NOT LIKELY TO BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL.
HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK IS LESS
THAN IT IS IN SOME YEARS. EL NINO...A WARMING OF THE PACIFIC
OCEAN WATERS NEAR THE EQUATOR...WAS EXPECTED TO PLAY A MAJOR
ROLE THIS WINTER. HOWEVER...ONLY A WEAK EL NINO DEVELOPED...
AND IT HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO WEAKEN.
ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COMES INTO PLAY FROM TIME TO TIME...NO
MATTER WHAT THE WINTER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR...IS THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION...WHICH IS A PRESSURE PATTERN IN THE ARCTIC REGION.
WHEN THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS NEGATIVE...COLD AIR SPILLS DOWN
FROM THE POLAR REGIONS. IF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS POSITIVE...
A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PREVAILS.
THE DIFFICULTY IN MAKING LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS IS THAT WHAT
THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION IS GOING TO DO CAN GENERALLY BE FORESEEN
ONLY A COUPLE OF WEEKS IN ADVANCE. THUS...EVEN IF THE ARCTIC
OSCILLATION WERE GOING TO BE A MAJOR FACTOR THIS COMING
WINTER...THAT COULD NOT BE FORECAST AT THIS POINT.
THE TABLE BELOW SHOWS WINTERTIME NORMALS FOR ARKANSAS.
CITY NORMAL HIGH NORMAL LOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
BENTONVILLE 48.0 25.3 8.67
EUREKA SPRINGS 47.9 28.1 8.96
FAYETTEVILLE 47.7 26.1` 8.85
HARRISON 48.3 28.3 8.40
MOUNTAIN HOME 47.9 27.5 10.30
JONESBORO 48.2 28.1 12.03
FORT SMITH 52.3 31.1 8.86
BATESVILLE 51.0 26.9 11.48
NEWPORT 47.8 31.0 12.44
RUSSELLVILLE 52.9 30.6 11.59
SEARCY 51.1 29.2 12.28
CONWAY 51.5 29.5 12.18
MENA 51.5 29.6 12.84
HOT SPRINGS 52.4 33.3 13.30
LITTLE ROCK 52.6 33.1 12.18
NORTH LITTLE ROCK 51.7 34.7 12.09
PINE BLUFF 53.4 33.9 14.10
CAMDEN 56.5 32.2 14.12
MAGNOLIA 56.2 33.3 14.07
MONTICELLO 55.4 35.6 15.30
WARREN 54.8 33.4 15.84
TEXARKANA 56.0 35.8 12.44
EL DORADO 56.6 34.8 14.27
AN IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE REGARDING THE OUTLOOK FOR THE COMING
WINTER...NO MATTER WHAT THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES...
VARIABILITY CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURE PATTERNS DURING THE
WINTER. THERE ARE USUALLY SOME PERIODS OF NOTICEABLY COLD WEATHER
INTERSPERSED WITH MILDER PERIODS.
SEASONAL OUTLOOKS ARE NOT SPECIFIC ENOUGH TO SAY WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ANY BIG OUTBREAKS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR TORNADOES DURING THE
WINTER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED HAS
BEEN KNOW TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER DURING THE WINTER.
LIKEWISE...SEASONAL OUTLOOKS CANNOT BE SPECIFIC REGARDING LARGE ICE
OR SNOWSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR
THE WINTER OFTEN DOES PRODUCE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION...AND ICE
MAY BE FAVORED OVER SNOW.
&&
PLEASE VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK
$$
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