National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Precipitation totals at Fort Smith (Sebastian County), Harrison (Boone County), Jonesboro (Craighead County), Little Rock (Pulaski County) and West Memphis (Crittenden County) were at least a half inch above normal. Meanwhile, amounts at El Dorado (Union County) and Texarkana (Miller County) were subpar by more than an inch.

For the year (2013) thus far, umbrellas have been needed the most in northern/eastern sections of the state, with the driest conditions in the southwest. 

Drought conditions were still hanging on in the west following the second warmest and tenth driest year (2012) on record in Arkansas.

According to a study by the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, ranchers in Arkansas lost at least $128 million due to drought conditions from August, 2011 through July, 2012. The losses were mostly the result of a short supply of hay and rising hay costs. It became too expensive to feed cattle, and ranchers were forced to sell their cows.

At one time, 85% of pastures were in poor or very poor condition. This led to lackluster hay production and the smallest hay yields since the mid 1950s. While shipping hay from surrounding areas was an option, red fire ants complicated the process. Many hay growers in the southeast United States live in fire ant quarantined counties. Despite good intentions, hay could not be transported from a quarantined region to a non-quarantined region unless the hay was certified as fire ant free and stored properly (above ground).

While the cattle industry suffered, most crops survived the drought. Early planting due to a mild winter and ample supplemental water through irrigation led to good plant development and decent yields.

In late February, a severe (D2) drought affected most areas west of Ashdown (Little River County), Clarksville (Johnson County) and Berryville (Carroll County).

During a record dry period (April through July) in 2012, extreme drought (D3) conditions developed by June 19th. Roughly 81% of the state was in at least D3 status at the end of July. The D3 area slowly shrunk in the fall/winter, and was confined to counties in the northwest. It finally disappeared on February 5th, 2013.

The ground water supply was highest and soil moisture was at/above normal in all but western Arkansas.

Streamflow was also average or a little on the plus side in most areas, with some below normal values in the west.

Overall, area lakes were in decent shape. Levels were generally 70 to 80 percent of conservation pool elevations the far northwest, and beyond pool capacities elsewhere. Water was generally rising.

On February 28th, there was a low wildfire danger and no burn bans declared in any of the 75 Arkansas counties.

As far as the future weather pattern, neutral conditions (close to normal water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean) are expected to hold through the spring. Given a neutral scenario, research through the Climate Prediction Center indicates a bias toward at/above normal precipitation in March/April, 2013. Forecast confidence is highest in the northern and eastern counties.

During this time frame, precipitation can be substantial if the right ingredients come together (i.e. clashing warm and cold air masses, a slowly moving or stalled front and ample moisture). There is not much time to add to the ground water supply before vegetation returns from dormancy and water consumption increases.

It will take several big rain events to erase precipitation deficits in the west. There may not be enough water to end the drought completely.

Looking farther into spring and early summer (May/June, 2013), there are indications that precipitation may not be as prevalent in southern/western Arkansas. This could be part of a larger dry area to the southwest, including portions of the southern Plains and the Gulf Coast. Chances for significant rain would be most likely in the north/east.