National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

As of September 24th, moderate (D1) to extreme (D3) drought conditions were common across southern Arkansas.

For awhile, the drought slowly worsened given a dry end to August and little rain to start September. High temperatures were also well into the 90s to around 100 degrees from August 28th through September 1st, and from September 7th through the 10th. The heat and lack of rain stressed vegetation.

Heading into late September, the rain came. Rain was heavy at times on the 19th/20th, especially from Little Rock (Pulaski County) southward. Two to four inch amounts were common in southern Arkansas, with locally over six inches.

In the thirty six hour period ending at 700 am CDT on the 21st, Texarkana (Miller County) racked up 6.68 inches of rain! Pine Bluff (Jefferson County) had 4.26 inches, with 3.31 inches at De Queen (Sevier County), 2.73 inches at West Memphis (Crittenden County) and 2.59 inches at Monticello (Drew County). Some of these amounts exceeded what would normally be expected during the entire month of September.

Following the deluge, D2 conditions went from 29 percent to 16 percent coverage, and D3 conditions only covered 2 percent of the state (down from 14 percent).

Streamflow levels along area tributaries were in decent shape in much of the region, but there were a few below normal levels in the south and west.

Burn bans affected only 2 (of 75) counties in central/southern sections of the state on September 26th. There was a moderate to high fire danger in 24 counties across the south/west.

Rainfall totals in September were well into the plus category in the south. The month finished with close to ten inches at Texarkana (Miller County), which was nearly three times the normal amount. At or above normal precipitation was also noted at El Dorado (Union County), Little Rock (Pulaski County), Pine Bluff (Jefferson County) and West Memphis (Crittenden County). Meanwhile, it was very dry in northern Arkansas. Several locales in the north had rain deficitis of more than two inches, including Fort Smith (Sebastian County) and Harrison (Boone County)..

In the long-term, the driest conditions were over the southern counties during the first nine months of 2013. Yearly rainfall deficits at El Dorado (Union County) and Texarkana (Miller County) were five to more than seven inches.

The weather pattern this summer featured a ridge of high pressure over the western United States, with hot and dry conditions under the high. Clockwise flow around the high resulted in a persistent northwest wind flow aloft over the eastern half of the country. This drove storm systems and fronts into areas east of the Mississippi River, with cooler temperatures and an ample amount of rain noted. Arkansas was sandwiched between these weather extremes, with a combination of dry periods and deluges.

In the coming months, rain chances will strongly depend on the overall position of high pressure. As long as the high stays away, there will be opportunities to erase the current drought in the south.

Improving conditions are expected mainly toward the end of fall and the beginning of winter (November/December). There is some confidence in wetter than normal weather durinng this time frame. In addition, the ground water supply will build more quickly once precipitation occurs and vegetation begins going dormant (less water consumption).

The wildcard in the forecast is the tropics. Activity in the Atlantic basin is expected to pick up given warm ocean temperatures to fuel storms. Arkansas dealt with several tropical systems in recent years, with heavy to excessive rain resulting. If the tropics come into play, the window of opportunity is closing. After September, the frequency of fronts increases as fall approaches, and tropical systems often get swept away.

It was a lot worse a year ago. The first eight months of 2012 featured a statewide average temperature of 66.6 degrees (record warmth) and only 25.80 inches of precipitation (the 11th driest January through August on record).

As summer progressed, triple digit heat and a lot of dry days made it difficult to impossible to grow grass/hay (without irrigation), and the cattle industry suffered (millions of dollars in losses). For the same time period in 2013, it was much cooler (61.4 degrees) and wetter (36.93 inches).