National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

Locales that got surplus precipitation included El Dorado (Union County), Fayetteville (Washington County), Pine Bluff (Jefferson County) and West Memphis (Crittenden County). Totals were more than an inch below normal at Texarkana (Miller County).

For the year (2013) thus far, precipitation was still positive across much of the region, with the driest conditions in the southwest. Measurements at El Dorado (Union County) and Texarkana (Miller County) were already subpar by more than three inches. 

Drought conditions were still hanging on in the southwest following the second warmest and tenth driest year (2012) on record in Arkansas.

According to a study by the University of Arkansas Division of Agriculture, ranchers in Arkansas lost at least $128 million due to drought conditions from August, 2011 through July, 2012. The losses were mostly the result of a short supply of hay and rising hay costs. It became too expensive to feed cattle, and ranchers were forced to sell their cows.

At one time, 85% of pastures were in poor or very poor condition. This led to lackluster hay production and the smallest hay yields since the mid 1950s. While shipping hay from surrounding areas was an option, red fire ants complicated the process. Many hay growers in the southeast United States live in fire ant quarantined counties. Despite good intentions, hay could not be transported from a quarantined region to a non-quarantined region unless the hay was certified as fire ant free and stored properly (above ground).

While the cattle industry suffered, most crops survived the drought. Early planting due to a mild winter and ample supplemental water through irrigation led to good plant development and decent yields.

In early May, a moderate (D1) drought affected most areas south and west of De Queen (Sevier County), Mufreesboro (Pike County) and Magnolia (Columbia County).

During a record dry period (April through July) in 2012, extreme drought (D3) conditions developed by June 19th. Roughly 81% of the state was in at least D3 status at the end of July. The D3 area slowly shrunk in the fall/winter, and was confined to counties in the northwest. It finally disappeared on February 5th, 2013. While D3 went away, D2 remained in the west for a couple of more months (early April) and then vanished. 

The ground water supply was pretty close to normal statewide. The highest moisture levels were in the southeast, with the lowest in the southwest.

Streamflow was also about normal, but below normal in the southwest.

Overall, area lakes were in decent shape. Levels were generally at or a little above pool capacities.

On May 2nd, there was a low wildfire danger, and no burn bans were declared in any of the 75 Arkansas counties.

As far as the future weather pattern, neutral conditions (close to normal water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean) are expected to hold through the summer. Given a neutral scenario, research through the Climate Prediction Center indicates a bias toward at/above normal precipitation early in the period (May/mid-June, 2013), especially across the north.

During this time frame, there is an outside chance of a significant precipitation event (several inches of rain over a wide area) if the right ingredients come together (i.e. a slowly moving or stalled front and ample moisture). As long as cool air masses continue to penetrate this far south (to bring below normal temperatures), this is a possibility.

There should be a trend toward drier conditions as the period winds down (late June/July, 2013). This would not be unusual as summer usually features scattered/hit and miss thunderstorms.   

Overall, the pattern looks promising, with enough moisture to stave off drought in much of the state. The area to monitor the most closely is the southwest. This is where conditions have been the most dry to begin the year.