National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

There were some drought breakers along the way, such as a deluge from mid-November to mid-December, 2011.

Hurricane Isaac brought much needed rain to southern and eastern Arkansas in late August, 2012. Pine Bluff (Jefferson County) had 8.39 inches in the forty eight hour period ending at 700 am CDT on September 1st.

Unfortunately, these were temporary fixes to a long-term problem. After the first nine months of 2013, there was an ongoing drought across the south. Precipitation was five to more than seven inches below normal at El Dorado (Union County) and Texarkana (Miller County). Rainfall farther north was mostly in the plus category. 

The weather pattern this summer featured a ridge of high pressure over the western United States, with hot and dry conditions under the high. Clockwise flow around the high resulted in a persistent northwest wind flow aloft over the eastern half of the country. This drove storm systems and fronts into areas east of the Mississippi River, with cooler temperatures and an ample amount of rain noted. Arkansas was sandwiched between these weather extremes, with a combination of dry periods and deluges.

In the coming months, rain chances will strongly depend on the overall position of high pressure. As long as the high stays away, there will be opportunities to erase the current drought in the south.

Improving conditions are expected mainly toward the end of fall and the beginning of winter (November/December). There is some confidence in wetter than normal weather durinng this time frame. In addition, the ground water supply will build more quickly once precipitation occurs and vegetation begins going dormant (less water consumption).

The wildcard in the forecast is the tropics. Activity in the Atlantic basin is expected to pick up given warm ocean temperatures to fuel storms. Arkansas dealt with several tropical systems in recent years, with heavy to excessive rain resulting. If the tropics come into play, the window of opportunity is closing. After September, the frequency of fronts increases as fall approaches, and tropical systems often get swept away.