000
AXUS74 KLZK 110309
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-111800-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1005 PM CDT THU OCT 10 2013

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

SYNOPSIS...

IT WAS DRY IN ARKANSAS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF AUGUST AND THE
BEGINNING OF SEPTEMBER. THERE WAS ALSO TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AT
TIMES DURING THIS TIME FRAME. GIVEN HEAT AND A LACK OF RAIN...
AN ONGOING DROUGHT SLOWLY WORSENED ACROSS THE SOUTH. IN LATE
SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER...SEVERAL HEAVY RAIN EVENTS
BROUGHT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR
LEVELS OF DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND
D4 /EXCEPTIONAL/.

THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID OCTOBER 8TH 2013...
INDICATED D1 /24 PERCENT COVERAGE/ AND D2 /12 PERCENT COVERAGE/
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. THIS INCLUDED AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF MAGNOLIA /COLUMBIA COUNTY/...SHERIDAN /GRANT COUNTY/ AND
MARIANNA /LEE COUNTY/.

CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...

RAIN WAS SPOTTY FROM AUGUST 14TH THROUGH SEPTEMBER 16TH. SEVERAL
REPORTING STATIONS HAD LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THIS
INCLUDED LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/...PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON
COUNTY/ AND TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/. RAINFALL TOTALS WERE
GENERALLY TWO TO FOUR INCHES BELOW NORMAL.

PRECIPITATION FROM AUGUST 14TH THROUGH SEPTEMBER 16TH 2013...

SITE                  AMOUNT     DEPARTURE   PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/   0.67        -3.71          15
HARRISON /NC AR/       0.33        -3.89           8
JONESBORO /NE AR/      0.39        -2.67          13
FORT SMITH /WC AR/     0.28        -3.23           8
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/     0.03        -3.14           1
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/   0.39        -2.78          12
TEXARKANA /SW AR/      0.23        -3.38           6
EL DORADO /SC AR/      1.09        -2.28          32
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/     0.18        -2.37           7

TEMPERATURES WERE ALSO WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES
FROM AUGUST 28TH THROUGH SEPTEMBER 1ST...AND ALSO FROM SEPTEMBER 7TH
THROUGH THE 10TH. THE HEAT AND LACK OF RAIN STRESSED VEGETATION.

THE RAIN FINALLY CAME ON SEPTEMBER 19TH/20TH...ESPECIALLY FROM
LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/ SOUTHWARD. TWO TO FOUR INCH AMOUNTS
WERE COMMON IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WITH LOCALLY OVER SIX INCHES.

FORTY EIGHT HOUR RAINFALL THROUGH 700 AM CDT ON SEPTEMBER 21ST...

SITE                         AMOUNT /INCHES/

TEXARKANA /MILLER CO/             6.68
BLUFF CITY /NEVADA CO/            6.05
HOPE /HEMPSTEAD CO/               6.00
PRESCOTT /NEVADA CO/              5.67
ASHDOWN /LITTLE RIVER CO/         5.60
STUTTGART /ARKANSAS CO/           5.32
SPARKMAN /DALLAS CO/              5.26
MARVELL /PHILLIPS CO/             5.10
DELIGHT /PIKE CO/                 4.59
ARKADELPHIA /CLARK CO/            4.52
ROHWER /DESHA CO/                 4.42
FORDYCE /DALLAS CO/               4.27
LEOLA /GRANT CO/                  4.27
PINE BLUFF /JEFFERSON CO/         4.26
SHERIDAN /GRANT CO/               4.13

ON THE 28TH...PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST PICKED UP TWO TO MORE THAN
THREE INCHES OF RAIN. TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/...FOR EXAMPLE...GOT
3.02 INCHES.

BY THE TIME SEPTEMBER WAS OVER...RAINFALL TOTALS WERE WELL INTO THE
PLUS CATEGORY IN THE SOUTH. ALMOST TEN INCHES WAS MEASURED AT
TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/...WHICH WAS NEARLY THREE TIMES THE NORMAL
AMOUNT. AT OR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WAS ALSO NOTED AT EL
DORADO /UNION COUNTY/...LITTLE ROCK /PULASKI COUNTY/...PINE BLUFF
/JEFFERSON COUNTY/ AND WEST MEMPHIS /CRITTENDEN COUNTY/.

PRECIPITATION IN SEPTEMBER 2013...

SITE                  AMOUNT     DEPARTURE   PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/   3.66        -0.98          79
HARRISON /NC AR/       1.35        -2.85          32
JONESBORO /NE AR/      1.28        -1.78          42
FORT SMITH /WC AR/     1.50        -1.55          49
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/     3.21        +0.03         101
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/   3.43        +0.59         121
TEXARKANA /SW AR/      9.86        +6.43         287
EL DORADO /SC AR/      3.10        -0.01         100
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/     4.48        +1.79         167

THE FAR SOUTHEAST WAS SPARED THE DELUGES IN SEPTEMBER...BUT THAT
CHANGED TO BEGIN OCTOBER. ON THE 5TH/EARLY ON THE 6TH...EUDORA AND
LAKE VILLAGE /BOTH IN CHICOT COUNTY/ RECEIVED FIVE TO SIX INCHES OF
RAIN. PORTLAND /ASHLEY COUNTY/ GOT JUST OVER THREE INCHES.

FOLLOWING THE DOWNPOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH...D2 CONDITIONS WENT FROM
29 PERCENT OVERAGE ON SEPTEMBER 16TH TO 12 PERCENT COVERAGE ON
OCTOBER 8TH. D3 CONDITIONS SHRANK FROM 14 PERCENT TO NOTHING.

LOOKING AT THE LONG-TERM...THE DRIEST CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES DURING THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2013. YEARLY
RAINFALL DEFICITS AT EL DORADO /UNION COUNTY/ AND TEXARKANA /MILLER
COUNTY/ WERE FIVE TO MORE THAN SEVEN INCHES.

2013 PRECIPITATION /THROUGH SEPTEMBER/...

SITE                  AMOUNT     DEPARTURE   PCT OF NORMAL

FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/  34.73        -0.72          98
HARRISON /NC AR/      34.17        +1.01         103
JONESBORO /NE AR/     38.73        +4.56         113
FORT SMITH /WC AR/    36.37        +2.96         109
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/    37.81        +3.22         109
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/  43.26        +5.61         115
TEXARKANA /SW AR/     29.44        -5.41          84
EL DORADO /SC AR/     29.94        -7.72          80
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/    38.11        +2.23         106

SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...

THERE WAS A MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER IN 24 /OF 75/ COUNTIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH/WEST ON OCTOBER 10TH. THERE WERE NO BURN BANS
POSTED.

THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY IMPROVED ACCORDING TO THE LATEST DROUGHT
INDICATORS. SOIL MOISTURE WAS STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
SOUTH...BUT VALUES WERE MUCH BETTER THAN BEFORE THE RAIN /UP FROM
5 PERCENT TO ALMOST 30 PERCENT/.

STREAMFLOW LEVELS ALONG AREA TRIBUTARIES WERE IN DECENT SHAPE IN
MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THERE WERE SEVERAL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
IN THE SOUTH AND WEST.

FORECAST...

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING MONTHS...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE END OF FALL AND THE BEGINNING OF WINTER /NOVEMBER AND
DECEMBER/. THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE IN WETTER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IN ADDITION...THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY WILL
BUILD MORE QUICKLY ONCE PRECIPITATION OCCURS AND VEGETATION BEGINS
GOING DORMANT /LESS WATER CONSUMPTION/.

WHAT ABOUT THE TROPICS? ARKANSAS DEALT WITH SEVERAL TROPICAL SYSTEMS
IN RECENT YEARS...WITH HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAIN RESULTING. HOWEVER...
THESE WERE AUGUST/SEPTEMBER EVENTS. AS FALL PROGRESSES...THE
FREQUENCY OF FRONTS INCREASES...AND TROPICAL SYSTEMS OFTEN GET SWEPT
AWAY.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK

DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=DROUGHT2013.HTM

NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML

DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118

PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

46

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