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AXUS74 KLZK 011115
DGTLZK
ARC001-005-009-011-013-019-023-025-029-039-041-043-045-049-051-053-
059-063-065-067-069-071-079-083-085-089-095-097-101-103-105-109-113-
115-117-119-125-127-129-135-137-141-145-147-149-020000-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
515 AM CST FRI MAR 1 2013
...CONTINUING DROUGHT IN PARTS OF WESTERN ARKANSAS...
...THE DROUGHT SLOWLY IMPROVED THIS WINTER...
SYNOPSIS...
THERE WERE SOME POSITIVE RAINFALL TOTALS IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ARKANSAS IN FEBRUARY...BUT IT WAS PRETTY MUCH NEGATIVE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM. IT IS A COLLABORATIVE EFFORT BETWEEN
SEVERAL GOVERNMENT AND ACADEMIC PARTNERS. THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR
IS ISSUED EACH THURSDAY MORNING AND TAKES INTO ACCOUNT
HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL DATA THROUGH 7 AM TUESDAY. THERE ARE FOUR
LEVELS OF DROUGHT: D1 /MODERATE/...D2 /SEVERE/...D3 /EXTREME/...AND
D4 /EXCEPTIONAL/.
THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...VALID FEBRUARY 27TH 2013...
INDICATED D2 /16 PERCENT COVERAGE/ CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ARKANSAS.
SPECIFICALLY...A SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT AFFECTED AREAS WEST OF
OF ASHDOWN /LITTLE RIVER COUNTY/...CLARKSVILLE /JOHNSON COUNTY/ AND
BERRYVILLE /CARROLL COUNTY/. FARTHER EAST...WHILE THERE WERE
SOME D0/D1 CONDITIONS...THERE WAS NO DROUGHT AT ALL IN HALF OF
THE STATE.
CLIMATE DATA AND ANALYSIS...
FEBRUARY PRECIPITATION TOTALS AT FORT SMITH /SEBASTIAN COUNTY/...
HARRISON /BOONE COUNTY/...JONESBORO /CRAIGHEAD COUNTY/...LITTLE ROCK
/PULASKI COUNTY/ AND WEST MEMPHIS /CRITTENDEN COUNTY/ WERE AT LEAST
A HALF INCH ABOVE NORMAL. MEANWHILE...AMOUNTS AT EL DORADO /UNION
COUNTY/ AND TEXARKANA /MILLER COUNTY/ WERE SUBPAR BY MORE THAN AN
INCH.
PRECIPITATION IN FEBRUARY 2013...
SITE AMOUNT DEPARTURE PCT OF NORMAL
FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/ 2.82 +0.01 100
HARRISON /NC AR/ 3.25 +0.61 123
JONESBORO /NE AR/ 4.42 +0.70 119
FORT SMITH /WC AR/ 4.46 +1.70 162
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/ 4.75 +1.09 130
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/ 4.99 +0.54 112
TEXARKANA /SW AR/ 1.78 -2.21 45
EL DORADO /SC AR/ 3.00 -1.79 63
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/ 4.38 +0.32 108
FOR THE YEAR /2013/ THUS FAR...UMBRELLAS HAVE BEEN NEEDED THE MOST
IN NORTHERN/EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...WITH THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION IN 2013 /THROUGH FEBRUARY/...
SITE AMOUNT DEPARTURE PCT OF NORMAL
FAYETTEVILLE /NW AR/ 5.85 +0.17 103
HARRISON /NC AR/ 6.62 +1.42 127
JONESBORO /NE AR/ 9.79 +2.64 137
FORT SMITH /WC AR/ 8.43 +2.86 151
LITTLE ROCK /C AR/ 9.56 +2.35 133
WEST MEMPHIS /EC AR/ 13.49 +4.86 156
TEXARKANA /SW AR/ 5.45 -1.94 74
EL DORADO /SC AR/ 6.66 -2.43 73
PINE BLUFF /SE AR/ 11.31 +3.49 145
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE STILL HANGING ON IN THE WEST FOLLOWING THE
SECOND WARMEST AND TENTH DRIEST YEAR /2012/ ON RECORD IN ARKANSAS.
RANK YEAR AVG. TEMP /DEG F/ YEAR AVG. PRECIP /INCHES/
1 1921 63.70 1963 32.35
2 2012 63.40 1943 34.81
3 1998 63.10 1936 34.94
4 1938 63.00 1901 35.44
5 1954 62.90 2005 36.21
6 1933 62.70 1924 37.24
7 1927 62.60 1954 37.77
8 1925 62.50 1896 37.86
9 1896 62.30 2010 39.11
10 1911 62.30 2012 39.79
SOIL MOISTURE/HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY/FIRE DANGER...
THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY WAS HIGHEST AND SOIL MOISTURE WAS AT/ABOVE
NORMAL IN ALL BUT WESTERN ARKANSAS.
STREAMFLOW WAS ALSO AVERAGE OR A LITTLE ON THE PLUS SIDE IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME BELOW NORMAL VALUES IN THE WEST.
OVERALL...AREA LAKES WERE IN DECENT SHAPE. LEVELS WERE GENERALLY
70 TO 80 PERCENT OF CONSERVATION POOL ELEVATIONS THE FAR NORTHWEST...
AND BEYOND POOL CAPACITIES ELSEWHERE. WATER WAS GENERALLY RISING.
LAKE INFORMATION ON FEBRUARY 28TH 2013...
LOCATION 7 AM LEVEL /FT/ CONSERVATION POOL /FT/
BEAVER LAKE /NW AR/ 1111.7 1120.4
TABLE ROCK LAKE /SW MO/ 908.1 915.0
BULL SHOALS /NC AR/ 649.0 654.0
NORFORK LAKE /NC AR/ 547.2 553.8
GREERS FERRY /NC AR/ 464.0 462.0
NIMROD LAKE /C AR/ 346.8 342.0
GILLHAM LAKE /SW AR/ 505.7 502.0
MILLWOOD LAKE /SW AR/ 259.5 259.2
ON FEBRUARY 28TH...THERE WAS A LOW WILDFIRE DANGER AND NO BURN BANS
DECLARED IN ANY OF THE 75 ARKANSAS COUNTIES.
FORECAST...
AS FAR AS THE FUTURE WEATHER PATTERN...NEUTRAL CONDITIONS /CLOSE TO
NORMAL WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN/ ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE SPRING. GIVEN A NEUTRAL SCENARIO...
RESEARCH THROUGH THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A BIAS
TOWARD AT/ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN MARCH/APRIL OF 2013.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...PRECIPITATION CAN BE SUBSTANTIAL IF THE
RIGHT INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER /I.E. CLASHING WARM AND COLD AIR
MASSES...A SLOWLY MOVING OR STALLED FRONT AND AMPLE MOISTURE/. THERE
IS NOT MUCH TIME TO ADD TO THE GROUND WATER SUPPLY BEFORE VEGETATION
RETURNS FROM DORMANCY AND WATER CONSUMPTION INCREASES.
IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL BIG RAIN EVENTS TO ERASE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS
IN THE WEST. THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH WATER TO END THE DROUGHT
COMPLETELY.
LOOKING FARTHER INTO SPRING /MAY AND JUNE 2013/...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE AS PREVALENT IN
SOUTHERN/WESTERN ARKANSAS. THIS COULD BE PART OF A LARGER DRY AREA
TO THE SOUTHWEST...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
GULF COAST. CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE
NORTH/EAST.
&&
RELATED WEBSITES...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK HOMEPAGE:
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK
DROUGHT INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO WFO LITTLE ROCK CWA
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/LZK/?N=DROUGHT2012.HTM
NATIONAL INTEGRATED DROUGHT INFORMATION SYSTEM:
WWW.DROUGHT.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
DROUGHT IMPACT REPORTER:
WWW.DROUGHTREPORTER.UNL.EDU
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
SOUTHERN REGION CLIMATE CENTER:
WWW.SRCC.LSU.EDU/
UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT PLEASE CONTACT:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE
8400 REMOUNT ROAD
NORTH LITTLE ROCK AR 72118
PHONE: 501-834-0308
EMAIL: SR-LZK.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
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