Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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107
AXUS74 KLUB 291742
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-121745-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1242 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2014

...WELCOME WIDESPREAD LATE MAY RAINS RESULT IN DROUGHT
IMPROVEMENTS FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER AN EXTREMELY DRY FOUR AND A HALF MONTHS TO START
2014...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM MAY 21ST THROUGH MAY 26TH HAS
BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED DROUGHT RELIEF TO MOST OF WEST TEXAS...ALTHOUGH
CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN IS NEEDED TO COMPLETELY ALLEVIATE THE LONG TERM
DROUGHT SITUATION.  OVER THE COURSE OF SIX DAYS...LARGE PORTIONS OF
BOTH THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS SAW TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH MORE ISOLATED
POCKETS OF BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES OBSERVED ACROSS
LUBBOCK...CROSBY...FLOYD...AND HALE COUNTIES.  AT THE LUBBOCK
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...FOUR CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF ACCUMULATIONS
BROUGHT THE YEARLY TOTAL RAINFALL UP FROM JUST 0.90 INCHES TO 6.13
INCHES...OR VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY.  UNFORTUNATELY
THOUGH...WHILE ALL OF WEST TEXAS SAW AT LEAST SOME ACCUMULATIONS...A
FEW PLACES ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS ONLY MANAGED TO RECORD BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT...AND REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE YEAR.  AS FOR THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS...IMPROVEMENT FROM D4
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT TO D3 SEVERE DROUGHT WAS REALIZED ACROSS THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS AND NORTHERN BRISCOE AND SWISHER COUNTIES.  WHILE
THIS IMPROVEMENT MAY SEEM MODEST FOR MANY AREAS CONSIDERING THE
RECENT RAINS...MUCH MORE RAIN IS NEEDED TO MAKE UP FOR LARGE LONG
TERM WATER DEFICITS BUILT UP OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS OF BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE RAINFALL OF THE PAST WEEKEND CAME AT ONE OF THE MOST
OPPORTUNE AND CRITICAL POINTS IN THE GROWING SEASON...AND IS IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO TREMENDOUS IMPROVEMENT FOR CROP AND LIVESTOCK
PRODUCTION. THE MOST BENEFICIAL RAINS WERE NOT UNIFORM...
HOWEVER...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS... AND SCATTERED ABOUT THE ROLLING PLAINS AS
WELL. BUT MOST OF THE RAIN FELL AT A PERFECT RATE ALLOWING THE
GROUND TO SOAK IT UP. SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE MOISTENED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE 30 INCH DEPTH IN MANY CASES. THE RAIN ALSO
FELL JUST FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW ENOUGH RUN-OFF TO PARTIALLY OR
MOSTLY FILL MANY STOCK-WATER TANKS AND LAKES. THE RAINS WERE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE PASTURES AND RANGELAND. THIS SHOULD SOON LEAD
TO A REDUCTION IN SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF CATTLE. THE RAIN ALSO
WAS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE MOISTURE FOR ANY REMAINING PLANTING. ON
THE CAP-ROCK...COTTON PLANTING WAS EXPECTED TO RESUME WHEN FIELDS
DRY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FARMERS BACK IN. WHEAT HARVESTING WILL BEGIN
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS ONCE FIELDS DRY THERE AS WELL.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE EASED TREMENDOUSLY AND ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN MOSTLY AT DECREASED LEVELS FOR WEEKS TO COME. THE HEAVY
RAIN OF THE PAST WEEKEND HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTENED THE GROUND
AND DUFF LAYER...WITH THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX FROM
THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE INDICATING WIDESPREAD VALUES LESS THAN
300. THE EXCEPTION WAS AN AREA OF 300 TO 500 FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. LATEST
ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS ALSO FROM THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE HAVE
PLUMMETED WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MONTHS. A
MASSIVE GREENUP IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO AS SEASONAL
SHRUBS AND GRASSES FINALLY EMERGE. FUELS ARE UNLIKELY TO BE
RESPONSIVE AGAIN UNTIL REPEATED DRYING WINDS LEAD BACK TO CURING
ONCE AGAIN. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WITH LIGHT WINDS
THIS WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED WESTERLY COMPONENT BREEZES BY
NEXT WEEK...THOUGH SPEEDS ARE UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO TOO MUCH CONCERN
WHILE FUELS REMAIN MOSTLY UNRESPONSIVE...AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
COUNTY BURN BANS IN MANY AREAS MAY EASE AS WELL IN COMING WEEKS AS
THE BENEFITS OF THE RAINFALL BECOME REALIZED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

MOST OF THE PAST MONTH HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY DRY ALTHOUGH SOME WELCOME
WIDESPREAD RELIEF WAS OBSERVED.  VERY DRY HUMIDITY LEVELS EARLY TO
MID MAY CONTRIBUTED TO CONTINUED DESSICATION OF BOTH AGRICULTURAL
AND HYDROLOGICAL INTERESTS.  A STRONG AND DRY WIND EVENT OCCURRED ON
APRIL 27-29TH FOLLOWED BY MANY DAYS OF VERY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WITH HIGH EVAPORATION.  A STRONG COLD FRONT ON MAY 12TH
PUSHED WELL INTO MEXICO AND SEVERELY LIMITED MOISTURE RECOVERY.
HOWEVER...THE PERIOD OF MAY 21-26TH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD MULTI-INCH
RAINFALLS TO MUCH OF THE REGION.  THE RAINFALL WAS LOWEST ACROSS THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS THENCE UP INTO KING AND COTTLE
COUNTY WHERE 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS WERE COMMON.  ELSEWHERE 3-4 INCH TOTALS
WERE TYPICAL WITH THE MOST INTENSE RAINFALL EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SLATON TO RALLS TO DOUGHERTY TO AIKEN WHERE 6 TO AS MUCH AS 7 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL.  THIS WAS PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL FOR THE WHITE RIVER
LAKE WATERSHED.

WITH THE WELCOME RAINFALL...LUBBOCK CURRENTLY STANDS AT 0.21 INCHES
ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT FROM THE
DEFICIT OF NEARLY 5 INCHES PRIOR TO MAY 21ST.  CHILDRESS REMAINS
ALMOST 2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL. LUBBOCK TEMPERATURES AVERAGED
ABOUT 0.5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONE 100 DEGREE DAY IN MAY.
CONVERSELY CHILDRESS RECORDED TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1.3 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH FOUR 100 DEGREE DAYS.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL ROUND OUT THE MONTH OF MAY
BUT WILL INCREASE TO VALUES ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
WEEK IN JUNE. WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
REASON FOR LOWER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR TERM.
INCREASING TEMPERATURES EARLY IN JUNE WILL BE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WHICH IS TYPICAL AS WE
HEAD TOWARDS THE TRANSITION FROM SPRING INTO SUMMER. NO SIGNIFICANT
SIGNAL IN MEDIUM TERM WEATHER MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. A PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST
OVER MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES WHICH MAY BRING SEVERAL
BRIEF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY JUNE. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF JUNE...TEMPERATURES HAVE A HIGHER CHANCE OF BEING
ABOVE AVERAGE THAN BELOW AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE OF
EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING BELOW...ABOVE OR NEAR AVERAGE.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

THE BEST IMPROVEMENT FROM RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN NOTED AT WHITE
RIVER LAKE WHERE AN INCREASE OF NEARLY THREE FEET WAS OBSERVED
SINCE LATE APRIL. HOWEVER...THE LAKE REMAINS AT 0 PERCENT
CONSERVATION CAPACITY. LAKE ALAN HENRY AND MACKENZIE LAKE BOTH
INDICATED NOMINAL DEPTH LOSSES OVER THE PAST MONTH.

THE HYDROLOGIC SITUATION REMAINS CRITICAL ACROSS OUR COUNTY WARNING
AREA AND SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NECESSARY TO REPLENISH
SUPPLIES.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON MAY 29TH:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 4-WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
                         POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH  CONSERVATION
                                           (FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE           3100 3001.3 -0.6    51       5
WHITE RIVER LAKE         2370 2340.1 +2.7    13       0
LAKE ALAN HENRY          2220 2203.4 -0.9    60      60

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON JUNE 26TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY
IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/DROUGHT/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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