Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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817
AXUS74 KLUB 271539
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-111545-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
939 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

...NOVEMBER RAINSTORMS MUCH TO BE THANKFUL FOR...AND HELP TO
WHITTLE AWAY AT DROUGHT AREAS...

SYNOPSIS...
HEAVY RAIN NOVEMBER 3RD AND 4TH LOWERED DROUGHT CLASSIFICATIONS
BELOW SEVERE DROUGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH 2011 FOR MOST
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK. BY LATE NOVEMBER...MOST OF THIS REGION WAS
CONSIDERED ABNORMALLY DRY...AND THUS WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED WITHIN
THIS DISCUSSION UNTIL DROUGHT LEVELS DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN.
DROUGHT LEVELS ALSO HAVE IMPROVED SLIGHTLY FOR AREAS OFF THE
CAPROCK...INCLUDING THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE AND AS FAR WEST AS THE I-27 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL SWISHER
COUNTY...BUT REMAINED MOSTLY WITHIN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PERSISTED...HOWEVER...OVER EASTERN COTTLE
COUNTY CONNECTING WITH A LARGER EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT REGION ALONG
THE RED RIVER TO THE EAST.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
THE HEAVIER RAIN IN EARLY NOVEMBER COMBINED WITH MORE RECENT LIGHT
SNOW AND RAIN HAS SET WINTER WHEAT UP FOR A NICE START OVER THE
ROLLING PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION PUT A CRIMP ON COTTON HARVESTING
ACTIVITIES BUT THE HARD FREEZES ALSO ALLOWED FOR MORE COMPLETE
DEFOLIATION. LIVESTOCK AND PASTURES ALSO APPEARED TO BE IN GOOD
CONDITION. DROUGHT IMPACTS RELATED TO AGRICULTURE WERE LIMITED OR
UNREPORTED.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS
RECENT WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS HAVE LED TO
RAPID CURING OF FINE FUELS. FUEL LOADS APPEAR TO BE NORMAL OR A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS...OR ERC...HAVE
FLUCTUATED EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL LEVELS IN RECENT WEEKS DEPENDING
ON TRENDS TOWARDS OR AWAY FROM MOISTURE AND COOL TEMPERATURES. BUT
EVEN THE HIGHEST ERC READINGS HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS. COUNTY BURN BANS REMAINED IN PLACE FOR CHILDRESS...
DICKENS...AND KING COUNTIES. LAND MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
THROUGH THE COOL SEASON FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIODS OF WARM...DRY...
AND WINDY WEATHER ESPECIALLY COINCIDENT WITH ABUNDANT FUEL LOADS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER WAS PUNCTUATED BY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...TWO PERIODS OF RAINFALL AND ONE LIGHT SNOWFALL
EVENT. THE MONTH STARTED ON THE MILD AND MOIST SIDE. A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WERE ABLE TO EXPLOIT A
MOISTURE TAP OFF OF EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE VANCE...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION
NOVEMBER 3RD INTO THE 4TH. MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS RECORDED OVER 1 INCH OF RAINFALL...WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS SEEING 1.5 TO 2+ INCHES. THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT OFFICIALLY
RECORDED A 2-DAY TOTAL OF 2.89 INCHES. THIS WIDESPREAD MODERATE
RAINFALL DID CONTRIBUTE TO A REDUCTION IN DROUGHT CATEGORIES FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE SOUTH PLAINS. UNFORTUNATELY...THE FAR
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...INCLUDING MUCH OF PARMER AND
NORTHWEST CASTRO COUNTIES LARGELY MISSED OUT ON THIS RAIN EVENT.
AFTER A PROTRACTED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER...NOT TOO ATYPICAL FOR
LATE FALL...A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WERE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW ON NOVEMBER
16TH. SNOW TOTALS OF 1/2 AN INCH TO 2 INCHES WERE COMMON FROM THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...WITH
LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST. MEMPHIS WAS THE BIG
WINNER...RECORDING 4 INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS EVENT. A FINAL ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN AFFECTED THE ROLLING PLAINS ON
NOVEMBER 22ND. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF A PADUCAH TO TAHOKA LINE SAW THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...WITH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS RECORDING AN INCH OR MORE. JUSTICEBURG RECORDED THE
HIGHEST RAIN TOTAL LOCALLY WITH 1.37 INCHES. OVERALL...THE PAST 30
DAYS BROUGHT 150 TO 200+ PERCENT OF NORMAL RAINFALL FOR MOST OF
THE SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. IN FACT...LUBBOCK IS
OFFICIALLY GOING TO FINISH WITH THE 3RD WETTEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD
/2.95 INCHES/ FINISHING BEHIND 2001 /3.37 INCHES/ AND 2004 /6.65
INCHES/. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE WET NOVEMBER WERE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE 30 DAY RAIN
TOTALS WERE AROUND 50 PERCENT OR LESS OF NORMAL.

THE FIRST THIRD OF NOVEMBER WAS RELATIVELY MILD TO EVEN WARM...BUT A
STRONG COLD FRONT BROUGHT THE FIRST TASTE OF WINTER AND PROLONGED
SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AFTER IT PLUNGED THROUGH ON THE EVENING OF
NOVEMBER 10TH. TEMPERATURES WERE SLOW TO RECOVER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NOVEMBER...WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVING IN ON
NOVEMBER 16TH HELPING TO KEEP READINGS AT OR BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS WERE
AVERAGING OVER 5.0 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FROM NOVEMBER 1ST THROUGH
THE 26TH.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CLOSE OUT NOVEMBER...WITH COOLER BUT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER KICKING OFF EARLIER DECEMBER. BEYOND EARLY
DECEMBER...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A BETTER
THAN AVERAGE CHANCE OF COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS
FOR THE REMAINDER OF DECEMBER AND CONTINUING ON THROUGH THE WINTER
MONTHS LARGELY IN PART TO THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK EL
NINO IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ALL AREA RESERVOIRS SAW A SMALL DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS OVER THE
PAST MONTH.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON NOVEMBER 27TH:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION  POOL  4-WEEK MAXIMUM    PERCENT OF
                          POOL TODAY  CHANGE   DEPTH  CONSERVATION
                                              (FEET)      CAPACITY

MACKENZIE LAKE             3100 3009.8  -0.1      60             7
WHITE RIVER LAKE           2370 2343.3  -0.3      16             5
LAKE ALAN HENRY            2220 2210.3  -0.1      67            75

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND JANUARY 1ST OR EARLIER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$
720
AXUS74 KLUB 311501
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-091515-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...A DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL OCTOBER SUSTAINS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...

SYNOPSIS...
AFTER AN UNUSUALLY WET SEPTEMBER...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WAS
CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION. BRIEF UNSETTLED PERIODS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THE GREATEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF
JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES OCCURRED IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITH AS
LITTLE AS 1/3 OF AN INCH MEASURED FARTHER NORTH AT CHILDRESS. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE
LATEST DROUGHT CATEGORIES REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORIES PERSISTING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT LEVELS REMAINED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COTTLE COUNTY.

.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...PREPARATIONS WERE UNDERWAY FOR THE FALL
COTTON HARVEST.  COOL TEMPERATURES SLOWED THE MATURATION OF COTTON
BUT A WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER
HAVE HELPED THE PROCESS ALONG.  COTTON FARMERS WERE SPRAYING COTTON
TO AID IN DEFOLIATION WHERE POSSIBLE AND SEVERAL COUNTIES ALREADY
HAD COTTON HARVESTING UNDERWAY.  CORN AND SORGHUM HARVESTS WERE PUT
ON HOLD IN SOME AREAS TO ALLOW FOR THE COTTON HARVEST TO BE
COMPLETED.  SPOTTY RAINFALL HAS HELPED WITH WINTER WHEAT SPROUTING
BUT OTHER AREAS NEEDED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO HELP WITH GERMINATION.

ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WINTER WHEAT WAS IN GOOD CONDITION WHERE
RAINFALL WAS RECEIVED BUT OTHER AREAS NEEDED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR
GERMINATION TO OCCUR.  CATTLE WERE IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION WITH
RANCHERS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF HIGHER PRICES TO WEAN CALVES AND REDUCE
THE NUMBER OF LIVESTOCK ON GRAZING PASTURES FOR THE WINTER.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WAS STILL NEEDED TO REFILL STOCK TANKS AND
SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES.  FAVORABLE WEATHER HAS ALLOWED FOR COTTON
FARMERS TO PREPARE THE CROP FOR HARVEST...PEANUT HARVESTING WAS
UNDERWAY...AND PECAN HARVESTING WAS ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.  THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR THESE
LEVELS THROUGH NOVEMBER.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTER
HAVING A STRING OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THE CHILDRESS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT REPORTED
AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES WHICH IS 4.7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. OCTOBER ALSO PROVED TO BE A DRY MONTH...MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE CHILDRESS MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT REPORTING 0.32 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE OCTOBER FIRST WHICH IS
1.87 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
RECEIVED MUCH MORE RAIN OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. THE NWS COOP OBSERVER
IN ASPERMONT REPORTED 1.53 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE OCTOBER 1ST.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL. DRIER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ENSUE BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER AS ZONAL FLOW
MATERIALIZES ALOFT. OVERALL...COOLER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WINTER COINCIDENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK EL NINO IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
ALL AREA RESERVOIRS SAW A DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS OVER THE PAST
MONTH DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS. THE AVERAGE DECLINE WAS 0.6 FEET. WHILE
THERE WAS A DECLINE AT ALL RESERVOIRS.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON OCTOBER 31ST:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION  POOL  4-WEEK MAXIMUM    PERCENT OF
                          POOL TODAY  CHANGE   DEPTH  CONSERVATION
                                              (FEET)      CAPACITY

MACKENZIE LAKE             3100 3009.9  -0.5      60             7
WHITE RIVER LAKE           2370 2343.6  -0.7      17             5
LAKE ALAN HENRY            2220 2210.4  -0.5      67            75

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON NOVEMBER 27TH /THANKSGIVING DAY/ OR
SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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