Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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354
AXUS74 KLUB 261603
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-281615-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1103 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS WAS NEAR
NORMAL...A DEFICIT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS REMAINS.
SNOW FELL EARLY IN THE MONTH ACROSS ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS PROVIDING SOME MOISTURE FOR SOIL CONDITIONS.  AFTER A COLD
START TO THE MONTH OF MARCH WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH BEFORE FINALLY GOING BACK ABOVE NORMAL BRIEFLY AT THE START OF
THE LAST FULL WEEK IN THE MONTH.  DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN MOSTLY
UNCHANGED WITH A MINOR EXPANSION OF EXTREME DROUGHT INTO HALL COUNTY.
MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS REMAINED IN NO TO ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS REMAINED IN A MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE HELPED THE WINTER
WHEAT CROP DEVELOP.  FIELDWORK CONTINUES IN PREPARATION FOR SPRING
PLANTING.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL HAD NOT FALLEN...
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAIN SAW IMPROVED RANGELAND FOR LIVESTOCK.
COOL SEASON GRASSES WERE PROVIDING SOME FORAGE AND LIVESTOCK WERE IN
MOSTLY GOOD CONDITION.  ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...HEAVIER RAINFALL
WAS RECEIVED WITH SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING 2-3 INCHES.  THIS PROVIDED
SOME RUNOFF FOR SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES BUT MORE WAS NEEDED.  COOL
SEASON GRASSES PROVIDED FORAGE AND SOME WARM SEASON GRASSES WERE
STARTING TO SPROUT.  LIVESTOCK WERE IN FAIR CONDITION BUT WERE
IMPROVING THANKS TO ADDITIONAL WINTER FORAGE BECOMING AVAILABLE.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS.
THE COMBINATION OF NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE AND THE LACK
OF STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGES HAS KEPT SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL IN
THE LOW TO AT TIMES MODERATE CATEGORY THUS FAR THROUGH THE LATE
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING. IN FACT...ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES
PRESENTLY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL AND IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO 10
YEAR HISTORICAL LOWS RATHER THAN HIGHS. FUEL LOADS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF STILL CURED GRASSES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...GREEN UP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WARMING TEMPERATURES
INTERACT WITH ENHANCED SOIL MOISTURE.

THE UPCOMING PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE AVERAGE. EXACTS REGARDING INITIAL
ATTACK ACTIVITY WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND NUMBER OF DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGES IN THE COMING WEEKS...BUT CLIMATOLOGY POINTS TO
THESE LIKELY BECOMING A MORE FREQUENT OCCURRENCE...SIMILAR TO WHAT
OCCURRED LAST EVENING /MARCH 25/. BURN BANS CURRENTLY REMAINING
CONFINED TO A QUARTER OF THE 24 COUNTIES IN THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE LUBBOCK COUNTY WARNING AREA MAY CERTAINLY EXPAND INTO APRIL
WITH THIS EXPECTED DRYING AND WARMING. THIS WILL BE MORE LIKELY IN
THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WHERE ONE TO TWO MONTH RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN THE GREATEST.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
MARCH BEGAN WITH CONTINUED TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. A PERSISTENT
AMPLIFIED PATTERN WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND TROUGHING
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWED FOR THE WEAKER
POLAR VORTEX TO CONTINUE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES WHICH PUSHED COLD AIR SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS. A
SERIES OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOWS BEGAN TO BREAK DOWN THE STEADY
RIDGING BY MID-MONTH AND TEMPERATURES MODERATED AND REMAINED AT OR
NEAR NORMAL VALUES.  ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF MARCH HAS
RESULTED IN A WARMING PERIOD THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH. SNOWFALL ON THE 3RD AND
4TH ACCOUNTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MEASURED PRECIPITATION AREA
WIDE. MOST LOCATIONS SAW FROM A TRACE UP TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVED ACROSS WEST TEXAS ON THE 18TH PRODUCING
SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIP THAT WAS PRIMARILY MEASURABLE IN OUR SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE COUNTIES. AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS
TRANSITIONED TO MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
BEEN DIFFICULT TO COME BY AND NO RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
MARCH WILL END DRY AND RATHER WARM WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
APPROACHING THE LOWER 90S THIS SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. APRIL
MAY START OFF WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH LATEST
COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED PRECIPITATION.  THEREAFTER...A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS
EXPECTED WITH OCCASIONAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THAT COULD RESULT IN
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR
MARCH WILL BE ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION PER THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER. THE NEXT
FOUR WEEKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE THE OPPOSITE...WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
RESERVOIR LEVELS WERE DOWN BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 FEET OVER THE PAST MONTH.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED MARCH 26TH:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION  POOL  5-WEEK    MAXIMUM  PERCENT OF
                      POOL    TODAY   CHANGE     DEPTH   CONSERVATION
                                      (FEET)             CAPACITY

  MACKENZIE LAKE      3100   3009.3   -0.01       59        7
  WHITE RIVER LAKE    2370   2342.6   -0.02       16        4
  LAKE ALAN HENRY     2220   2210.0   -0.01       67       74

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON APRIL 23RD OR
SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.CLIMATETEXAS.TAMU.EDU

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE
USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS
BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE TEXAS
TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...
THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 S LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TX 79423
PHONE...806-745-4926
LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$
264
AXUS74 KLUB 261939
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-311745-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
140 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS...
ALTHOUGH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WAS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES DURING
FEBRUARY...CONDITIONS WERE RELATIVELY MOIST.  A FEW ROUNDS OF EVENLY
SPACED LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTRIBUTED TO THESE MOIST
CONDITIONS. THESE LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENTS WERE ALSO INTERSPERSED
WITH LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPERATURES.  DROUGHT CONDITIONS LARGELY
REMAINED UNCHANGED AGAIN THROUGH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.  MOST AREAS
OF CHILDRESS AND COTTLE COUNTIES REMAINED IN SEVERE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT.  A SMALL PORTION OF THE EASTERN PART OF THESE COUNTIES WERE
IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS. WINTER WHEAT...PASTURES..AND RANGELANDS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
AND PERIODS OF WARMER WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH SHORT TO
ADEQUATE SOIL MOISTURE.  CATTLE IN THE SOUTH PLAINS WERE IN GOOD
CONDITION AND FAIR ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH LIVESTOCK STRESS
HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THE STRONG TEMPERATURE SWINGS OF THE PAST FEW
WEEKS.  IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...TOPSOIL WAS IN DECENT SHAPE BUT SUB-
SOIL MOISTURE WAS SPOTTY RANGING FROM VERY DRY TO VERY WET.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS. FEBRUARY IS TRADITIONALLY A CLIMATOLOGICAL
RESPITE FROM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.  LARGE EXPANSES OF TALL GRASS
REMAINED ON CRP FOR AREAS ON THE WEST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL FINE FUELS ALSO WERE COMMON FOR PARTS OF THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENT VALUES ARE CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
THANKS TO INCREASED COOL SEASON MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THOUGH EXCURSIONS TO NEAR NORMAL ERC HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST MONTH
DURING WARM SPELLS. LAND MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN DILIGENT DURING ANY
PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER...EITHER WITH OR WITHOUT BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS. WE ARE NOW AT THE CLIMATOLOGICAL START OF THE WIND STORM
SEASON IN WEST TEXAS THOUGH SOME DELAY IN ONSET APPEARS LIKELY.
BURN BANS ARE IN PLACE FOR CASTRO... LAMB... COCHRAN... YOAKUM...
GARZA... DICKENS... AND KING COUNTIES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS CHARACTERIZED BY CONSIDERABLE FLUCTUATIONS
IN TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN BOTH RECORD MAXIMUM AND LOWEST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WEATHER PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA
DUE TO A WEAKER POLAR VORTEX ALLOWED ARCTIC AIR TO ENCOMPASS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS ARCTIC AIR WOULD INTERMITTENTLY MAKE
ITS WAY INTO WEST TEXAS AFTER VERY WARM PERIODS. BECAUSE OF THE WIDE
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH WERE NEAR
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

ACCOMPANYING THE ARCTIC AIR INTRUSIONS WERE LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EVENTS. THE MOST IMPACTING EVENT OCCURRED FROM THE 22ND THROUGH THE
23RD. PRECIPITATION WAS GENERALLY LIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT BUT
INCLUDED THE ENTIRE REGION. MOST AREAS ONLY SAW UP TO ONE INCH OF
SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS BUT DID BRING SEVERAL DAYS OF COLD AND
MOIST CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH ALL AREAS SAW BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...AREAS EAST OF THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT CONTINUED TO FARE
WORSE THAN AREAS ON THE CAPROCK.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
FEBRUARY WILL END WET AND COLD WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 1 INCH IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TO NEAR 4 INCHES IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. DESPITE THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
THE MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY WILL BE
ONE HALF INCH TO ONE INCH BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST 2
WEEKS OF MARCH ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF MARCH LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE NEAR
NORMAL AS WELL FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE LONGTERM OUTLOOK THROUGH
MAY SHOWS THE POSSIBILITY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RESERVOIR LEVELS WERE DOWN BETWEEN 0.1 AND 0.2 FEET OVER THE PAST
MONTH.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED FEBRUARY 26TH:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION  POOL  5-WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
            POOL          TODAY CHANGE DEPTH   CONSERVATION
                                   (FEET)   CAPACITY

  MACKENZIE LAKE      3100   3009.4    0.02    59        7       0.08
  WHITE RIVER LAKE    2370   2342.8    0.02    16        4       0.00
  LAKE ALAN HENRY     2220   2210.1   -0.02    67       74       0.00

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON MARCH 26TH OR
SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER
CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.CLIMATETEXAS.TAMU.EDU

NWS PRECIPITATION: HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

USGS: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE: HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

USDA: HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP ADN WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT
INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT
HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE TEXAS
TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...
THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT
THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2579 S LOOP 289 SUITE 100 LUBBOCK TX 79423
PHONE...806-745-4926 LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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