Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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426
AXUS74 KLUB 291736
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-311745-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1136 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
ROLLING PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS... DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE MOSTLY UNCHANGED SINCE THE FIRST
OF THE YEAR FOR THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS. SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT REMAINED...REFLECTING MULTI-YEAR DROUGHT PLAGUING
THE REGION. EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT AT THE D4 LEVEL WAS NOTED FOR THE
EASTERN STRIPS OF CHILDRESS AND COTTLE COUNTIES CONNECTED TO A LARGE
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT REGION THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS ENOUGH PRECIPITATION FELL TO MAINTAIN WINTER
WHEAT IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION. LIVESTOCK ALSO REMAINED IN FAIR TO
GOOD CONDITION. STOCK TANKS AND AREA LAKES STILL NEEDED MOISTURE.

FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS THE AGGRESSIVE BEHAVIOR OF SEVERAL RECENT FIRES
IN THE REGION POINT TO CONCERN FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL ACTIVE FIRE
SEASON JUST AROUND THE CORNER. LARGE EXPANSES OF TALL GRASS REMAINED
ON CRP FOR AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WHILE ABOVE NORMAL FINE FUELS ALSO
WERE COMMON FOR PARTS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE.
EVEN THOUGH ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS MOSTLY WERE AROUND NORMAL
VALUES...SOME OF THE ACTIVE FIRES OCCURRED DURING THOSE PERIODS.
LAND MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN DILIGENT DURING ANY PERIOD OF WARM AND
DRY WEATHER...EITHER WITH BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS OR WITHOUT. FIRE
SEASON TYPICALLY RAMPS UP BY THE END OF FEBRUARY WITH THE START OF
THE SEASONAL WIND STORM SEASON. COUNTY BURN BANS REMAINED FOR
CHILDRESS...DICKENS...AND KING COUNTIES.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

JANUARY SAW SEVERAL DAMP PERIODS...WITH THE LATEST PERIOD AROUND
JANUARY 21ST AND 22ND BRINGING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN TO THE
ROLLING PLAINS...AND AROUND A HALF INCH ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE. COMBINED WITH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION EARLIER IN THE
MONTH...MOSTLY AVERAGE RECENT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN THE RULE.
TEMEPRATURE RANGES IN JANUARY HAVE BEEN CLOSE TO TYPICAL LEVELS FOR
THE MOST PART.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

IN THE IMMEDIATE OUTLOOK PERIOD...JANUARY WILL END ON A WET NOTE
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ENDING ON FEBRUARY FIRST. AREAS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WHILE THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING
PLAINS MAY SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FEBRUARY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH WEST TEXAS SITUATED BETWEEN WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN US AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE EASTERN
US. THE LONG TERM OUTLOOK THROUGH APRIL SHOWS A GREATER CHANCE OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

RESERVOIR LEVELS WERE MOSTLY UNCHANGED IN THE PAST MONTH.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED JANUARY 29TH:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION  POOL  5-WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
            POOL          TODAY CHANGE DEPTH   CONSERVATION
                                   (FEET)   CAPACITY

MACKENZIE LAKE    3100          3009.5 -0.01   60      7
WHITE RIVER LAKE  2370          2342.9  0.00   16      4
LAKE ALAN HENRY   2220          2210.3 +0.04   67     75

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON FEBRUARY 26TH
OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER
CASE LETTERS/...

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE: HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.CLIMATETEXAS.TAMU.EDU

NWS PRECIPITATION: HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP

USGS: HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE: HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/: HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

USDA: HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP ADN WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT
INVOLVING THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT
HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...THE TEXAS
TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONETSTATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES... THE
USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT
THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 2579 S LOOP 289 SUITE 100 LUBBOCK TX 79423
PHONE...806-745-4926 LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$
475
AXUS74 KLUB 011622
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-151630-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1022 AM CST THU JAN 1 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS...
DROUGHT LEVELS WERE MOSTLY UNCHANGED SINCE LATE NOVEMBER FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT REMAINED...LARGELY BECAUSE OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
YEARS OF DROUGHT IN THE REGION. AN AREA OF EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...
D4 LEVEL...CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COTTLE COUNTY CONNECTED TO
AN EXPANSIVE D4 REGION NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
DROUGHT IMPACTS WERE UNKNOWN OR UNAVAILABLE FOR THIS REPORT.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS

IN SPITE OF THE ONGOING LONG TERM DROUGHT...PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PAST YEAR WAS ADEQUATE TO GENERATE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL GRASS
AND SHRUB COVERAGE. IN ADDITION...LESS GRAZING THAN IN PAST YEARS
MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN ABNORMALLY HIGH LOAD GOING INTO THIS
DRY SEASON. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT LEVELS...ERC...HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THE PAST MONTH OWING TO ELEVATED
HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH AND A COUPLE COLD SPELLS LATE IN
THE MONTH. BUT A BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THE VERY END OF
NOVEMBER LED TO BRIEFLY ELEVATED ERC LEVELS AND A SPIKE IN ACTIVE
FIRES. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING IS FOR NORMAL
TO POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL FIRE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY
ON MOISTURE...WIND...AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THE INTRICACIES
OF SYNOPTIC WIND STORMS. BUT ANY DRY AND WARM PERIOD ENDING IN
WIND SHOULD GENERATE CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE
ACTIVITY. THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDUCES REFLECT THE
RECENT TRENDS SHOWING MOSTLY NORMAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DUFF LAYER. ONLY KING...DICKENS...AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES CURRENTLY
REPORTED OUTDOOR BURN BANS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

DECEMBER 2014 BROUGHT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...INCLUDING A FEW
BOUTS OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE MONTH. MONTHLY RAIN
TOTALS GENERALLY AVERAGED FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A
QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THESE RAIN TOTALS WERE WELL
SHY OF NORMAL...WHICH AVERAGE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
AROUND ONE INCH.

MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS MILD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES PEAKED MID-MONTH...FROM THE 10TH TO 14TH...WHEN THEY
AVERAGE 10-16 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE MONTH
AND THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH DID PROVIDE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...INCLUDING A VERY COLD CONCLUSION TO THE YEAR.
OVERALL...DECEMBER 2014 AVERAGED AROUND 2.5 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE NEW YEAR WILL START OUT ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE RISK OF MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...JANUARY 3RD...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. BEYOND EARLY
JANUARY...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A BETTER
THAN AVERAGE CHANCE FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS
FOR JANUARY AND CONTINUING ON THROUGH MARCH. TEMPERATURES FOR
JANUARY HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING NEAR...ABOVE OR BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE 3-MONTH FORECAST FOR JANUARY THROUGH MARCH HAVING
BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ALL AREA RESERVOIRS SAW A SMALL DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS OVER THE
PAST MONTH.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON JANUARY 1ST:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION  POOL  5-WEEK MAXIMUM    PERCENT OF
                          POOL TODAY  CHANGE   DEPTH  CONSERVATION
                                              (FEET)      CAPACITY

MACKENZIE LAKE             3100 3009.6  -0.2      60             7
WHITE RIVER LAKE           2370 2342.9  -0.4      16             5
LAKE ALAN HENRY            2220 2209.9  -0.4      67            74


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON JANUARY 29 2015 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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