Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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720
AXUS74 KLUB 311501
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-091515-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1000 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...A DRIER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL OCTOBER SUSTAINS DROUGHT
CONDITIONS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE...

SYNOPSIS...
AFTER AN UNUSUALLY WET SEPTEMBER...THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WAS
CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION. BRIEF UNSETTLED PERIODS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
MONTH RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE MONTHLY RAINFALL FOR THE ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE. THE GREATEST TOTAL PRECIPITATION OF
JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES OCCURRED IN THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS WITH AS
LITTLE AS 1/3 OF AN INCH MEASURED FARTHER NORTH AT CHILDRESS. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE 1 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES BELOW AVERAGE...RESPECTIVELY. THE
LATEST DROUGHT CATEGORIES REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED SINCE LATE
SEPTEMBER WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CATEGORIES PERSISTING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE INTO THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS.  EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT LEVELS REMAINED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COTTLE COUNTY.

.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...PREPARATIONS WERE UNDERWAY FOR THE FALL
COTTON HARVEST.  COOL TEMPERATURES SLOWED THE MATURATION OF COTTON
BUT A WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER
HAVE HELPED THE PROCESS ALONG.  COTTON FARMERS WERE SPRAYING COTTON
TO AID IN DEFOLIATION WHERE POSSIBLE AND SEVERAL COUNTIES ALREADY
HAD COTTON HARVESTING UNDERWAY.  CORN AND SORGHUM HARVESTS WERE PUT
ON HOLD IN SOME AREAS TO ALLOW FOR THE COTTON HARVEST TO BE
COMPLETED.  SPOTTY RAINFALL HAS HELPED WITH WINTER WHEAT SPROUTING
BUT OTHER AREAS NEEDED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO HELP WITH GERMINATION.

ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS...WINTER WHEAT WAS IN GOOD CONDITION WHERE
RAINFALL WAS RECEIVED BUT OTHER AREAS NEEDED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR
GERMINATION TO OCCUR.  CATTLE WERE IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION WITH
RANCHERS TAKING ADVANTAGE OF HIGHER PRICES TO WEAN CALVES AND REDUCE
THE NUMBER OF LIVESTOCK ON GRAZING PASTURES FOR THE WINTER.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WAS STILL NEEDED TO REFILL STOCK TANKS AND
SURFACE WATER SUPPLIES.  FAVORABLE WEATHER HAS ALLOWED FOR COTTON
FARMERS TO PREPARE THE CROP FOR HARVEST...PEANUT HARVESTING WAS
UNDERWAY...AND PECAN HARVESTING WAS ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
ABOVE NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THOUGH
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ARE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 40S.  THESE VALUES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN NEAR THESE
LEVELS THROUGH NOVEMBER.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AFTER
HAVING A STRING OF NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING
THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER. THE CHILDRESS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT REPORTED
AN AVERAGE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE OF 68 DEGREES WHICH IS 4.7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. OCTOBER ALSO PROVED TO BE A DRY MONTH...MAINLY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WITH THE CHILDRESS MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT REPORTING 0.32 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE OCTOBER FIRST WHICH IS
1.87 INCHES BELOW NORMAL. AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS
RECEIVED MUCH MORE RAIN OVER THE PAST 30 DAYS. THE NWS COOP OBSERVER
IN ASPERMONT REPORTED 1.53 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE OCTOBER 1ST.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL KEEP DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS ON THE LOW SIDE WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL. DRIER CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ENSUE BY THE END OF THE FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER AS ZONAL FLOW
MATERIALIZES ALOFT. OVERALL...COOLER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WINTER COINCIDENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WEAK EL NINO IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
ALL AREA RESERVOIRS SAW A DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS OVER THE PAST
MONTH DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS. THE AVERAGE DECLINE WAS 0.6 FEET. WHILE
THERE WAS A DECLINE AT ALL RESERVOIRS.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON OCTOBER 31ST:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION  POOL  4-WEEK MAXIMUM    PERCENT OF
                          POOL TODAY  CHANGE   DEPTH  CONSERVATION
                                              (FEET)      CAPACITY

MACKENZIE LAKE             3100 3009.9  -0.5      60             7
WHITE RIVER LAKE           2370 2343.6  -0.7      17             5
LAKE ALAN HENRY            2220 2210.4  -0.5      67            75

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON NOVEMBER 27TH /THANKSGIVING DAY/ OR
SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$
906
AXUS74 KLUB 251501
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-091515-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1001 AM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

...A WET SEPTEMBER ALLEVIATES THE SHORT-TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AREA. HOWEVER...LONG-TERM WATER
SUPPLY ISSUES REMAIN...

SYNOPSIS...
FOLLOWING AN UNUSUALLY HOT AND DRY START TO THE MONTH...AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ON SEPTEMBER 5TH HERALDED A
TRANSITION TOWARD A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN THAT CONTINUED
LARGELY UNINTERRUPTED FOR THE NEXT THREE WEEKS. THIS CHANGE WAS
PUNCTUATED BY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ON SEVERAL DAYS INCLUDING
THE 6TH...11TH...17TH THROUGH THE 21ST...AND ALSO THE 24TH.
TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODING WERE MOST COMMON BY THE THIRD WEEK
OF THE MONTH AS THE REMNANTS OF PACIFIC HURRICANE ODILE OVERSPREAD
ALL OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. TOTAL
RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH RANGED FROM A MINIMUM OF A FEW INCHES
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO BETWEEN FIVE AND TEN
INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS AND SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
SOME SECTIONS OF CENTRAL LYNN AND FAR SOUTHERN GARZA COUNTIES SAW
REMARKABLE RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MONTH OF NEARLY 13 INCHES. A
GOOD PORTION OF THESE HEAVY RAINS FELL IN THE LAKE ALAN HENRY
WATERSHED AND YIELDED SIGNIFICANT LAKE LEVELS NOT SEEN SINCE LATE
2012. ALTHOUGH SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS WERE LARGELY
ERADICATED BY THIS ABUNDANT RAINFALL...THE LONG TERM DROUGHT
CATEGORIES THAT FACTOR IN WATER SUPPLIES HAVE NOT BENEFITED AS
MUCH TO TO NON-UNIFORM RESERVOIR IMPROVEMENT. THE LATEST DROUGHT
CATEGORIES NOW RANGE FROM ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF
THE NORTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE...TO
MODERATE WITH SOME SEVERE POCKETS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS. SEVERE DROUGHT REMAINED LARGELY UNCHANGED IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS WITH SOME LINGERING EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT LEVELS IN
SOUTHEASTERN COTTLE COUNTY.

.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE RECENT RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN WET
CONDITIONS IN AREA FIELDS. THIS MAY IMPACT THE COTTON CROP BECAUSE
OF EXCESSIVE NEW GROWTH OR REGROWTH FOR COTTON THAT HAD ALREADY
REACHED CUTOUT...AND ANY OPEN BOLLS MAY HAVE RECEIVED DAMAGED TO
EXPOSED LINT FROM RECENT RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...ADDITIONAL HEAT
UNITS WERE NEEDED TO FINISH OUT THE CROP. ALL GRAIN HARVESTING AND
WHEAT DRILLING WERE DELAYED DUE TO THE RAIN BUT ALREADY PLANTED
WHEAT BENEFITED FROM RECENT RAINFALL. RAINFALL HAS ALSO BEEN HEAVY
ENOUGH TO REPLENISH SUBSOIL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
RANGELAND AND PASTURES WERE IN GOOD TO EXCELLENT CONDITION AS
COOL-SEASON GRASSES ARE EMERGING. SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF
LIVESTOCK WAS NOT REQUIRED.

THE ROLLING PLAINS SAW HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WHILE THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES REMAINED DRY.
LOWER BOLLS IN THE COTTON CROP HAD STARTED TO OPEN BUT ADDITIONAL
HEAT UNITS WERE STILL NEEDED TO FINISH THE CROP.  RYE GRASS AND
WINTER WHEAT PLANTING HAD BEGUN AND GRAIN SORGHUM HAS HEADED OUT.
LIVESTOCK REMAINED IN GENERALLY GOOD CONDITION WITH MINOR
IMPROVEMENT IN PASTURES AND RANGELAND...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER
RAINS HAVE FALLEN.  LAKE AND STOCK POND WATER LEVELS WERE STILL
CRITICALLY LOW.

FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
ABOVE-NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE AND GREEN FUELS HAVE ERADICATED GRASSLAND
FIRE CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY FALL. REGIONAL ERC VALUES ARE AT THEIR
LOWEST LEVELS OF THE YEAR SO FAR AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH OCTOBER.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE BIG STORY FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER IN WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO HAS BEEN ABUNDANT RAINFALL...BRINGING BOTH
RELIEF TO AREA DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND MAJOR FLOODING ISSUES IN
PLACES. MUCH OF THIS CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO A COMBINATION OF BOTH A
STRONG MONSOONAL PATTERN AND A VERY ACTIVE PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...AND IN PARTICULAR THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE WHICH
SLOWLY TRAVERSED ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DURING THE SECOND AND
THIRD WEEKS OF THE MONTH. ACROSS THE LUBBOCK FORECAST AREA
SPECIFICALLY...THE HARDEST HIT REGION HAS BEEN THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
PLAINS WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINS OF BETWEEN 6 TO 9 INCHES OF RAIN
WERE MEASURED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH...INCLUDING A FEW
ISOLATED TOTALS BETWEEN 9 AND 12 INCHES AS WELL. THIS HAS BEEN
PARTICULARLY BENEFICIAL TO THE LAKE ALAN HENRY WATERSHED...WHERE
WATER LEVELS IN THE RESERVOIR HAVE RISEN A FULL 20 PERCENT DUE TO
THESE RECENT RAINS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND THE
ROLLING PLAINS RAINFALL TOTALS OF THREE TO SIX INCHES WERE
WIDESPREAD AS WELL.

UNFORTUNATELY...A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS DID NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN AS
OTHERS...INCLUDING ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE WHERE ONLY ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WAS SEEN DURING
SEPTEMBER.  WHILE A VERY RECENT EVENT ON SEPTEMBER 24TH DID BRING
PATCHY AREAS OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THIS AREA...DROUGHT
IMPROVEMENT OVER THIS AREA HAS BEEN MUCH MORE SUBDUED.  AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...SEVERAL COLD FRONTS AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE RESULTED IN
A RELATIVELY COOL BUT MUGGY FIRST 24 DAYS OF THE MONTH...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING APPROXIMATELY THREE DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT
LUBBOCK...AND TWO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AT CHILDRESS FOR THE PERIOD.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF SEPTEMBER...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
APPEARS LOW...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT CAN BRING POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER...THE FORECAST
WEATHER PATTEN FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEST TEXAS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH AN INTENSIFYING
EL NINO IN THE PACIFIC.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
MOST AREA RESERVOIRS BENEFITED FROM THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST MONTH. IN INCREASE AT LAKE ALAN HENRY IN PARTICULAR WAS THE
LARGEST RISE SEEN SINCE THE BEGINNING OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN
LATE 2010. THE RAINFALL WAS FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH PLAINS AREA THUS MACKENZIE LAKE DID NOT
EXPERIENCE ANY IMPROVEMENT.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON SEPTEMBER 25TH:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION  POOL  4-WEEK MAXIMUM    PERCENT OF
                          POOL TODAY  CHANGE   DEPTH  CONSERVATION
                                              (FEET)      CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE           3100 3010.4    -0.1      61             8
WHITE RIVER LAKE         2370 2344.3    +1.6      17             6
LAKE ALAN HENRY          2220 2210.9    +9.3      68            68

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON OCTOBER 30TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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