Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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475
AXUS74 KLUB 011622
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-151630-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1022 AM CST THU JAN 1 2015

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE AND
MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS...
DROUGHT LEVELS WERE MOSTLY UNCHANGED SINCE LATE NOVEMBER FOR THE
SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT REMAINED...LARGELY BECAUSE OF FOUR CONSECUTIVE
YEARS OF DROUGHT IN THE REGION. AN AREA OF EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT...
D4 LEVEL...CONTINUED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COTTLE COUNTY CONNECTED TO
AN EXPANSIVE D4 REGION NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS
DROUGHT IMPACTS WERE UNKNOWN OR UNAVAILABLE FOR THIS REPORT.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS

IN SPITE OF THE ONGOING LONG TERM DROUGHT...PRECIPITATION OVER THE
PAST YEAR WAS ADEQUATE TO GENERATE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL GRASS
AND SHRUB COVERAGE. IN ADDITION...LESS GRAZING THAN IN PAST YEARS
MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN ABNORMALLY HIGH LOAD GOING INTO THIS
DRY SEASON. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT LEVELS...ERC...HAVE MOSTLY
BEEN NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL THE PAST MONTH OWING TO ELEVATED
HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF THE MONTH AND A COUPLE COLD SPELLS LATE IN
THE MONTH. BUT A BOUT OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THE VERY END OF
NOVEMBER LED TO BRIEFLY ELEVATED ERC LEVELS AND A SPIKE IN ACTIVE
FIRES. THE OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER INTO EARLY SPRING IS FOR NORMAL
TO POSSIBLY ABOVE NORMAL FIRE ACTIVITY. THIS WILL DEPEND LARGELY
ON MOISTURE...WIND...AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES AND THE INTRICACIES
OF SYNOPTIC WIND STORMS. BUT ANY DRY AND WARM PERIOD ENDING IN
WIND SHOULD GENERATE CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL ELEVATED FIRE
ACTIVITY. THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDUCES REFLECT THE
RECENT TRENDS SHOWING MOSTLY NORMAL LEVELS OF MOISTURE THROUGH THE
DUFF LAYER. ONLY KING...DICKENS...AND CHILDRESS COUNTIES CURRENTLY
REPORTED OUTDOOR BURN BANS.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

DECEMBER 2014 BROUGHT SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS...INCLUDING A FEW
BOUTS OF LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE MONTH. MONTHLY RAIN
TOTALS GENERALLY AVERAGED FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE AMOUNTS RANGED FROM A
QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THESE RAIN TOTALS WERE WELL
SHY OF NORMAL...WHICH AVERAGE FROM THREE QUARTER OF AN INCH TO
AROUND ONE INCH.

MUCH OF DECEMBER WAS MILD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES PEAKED MID-MONTH...FROM THE 10TH TO 14TH...WHEN THEY
AVERAGE 10-16 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE MONTH
AND THE TAIL END OF THE MONTH DID PROVIDE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...INCLUDING A VERY COLD CONCLUSION TO THE YEAR.
OVERALL...DECEMBER 2014 AVERAGED AROUND 2.5 TO 3 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE NEW YEAR WILL START OUT ON THE COLD SIDE WITH THE RISK OF MORE
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL QUICKLY DWINDLE
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...JANUARY 3RD...WITH DRY WEATHER THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR. BEYOND EARLY
JANUARY...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A BETTER
THAN AVERAGE CHANCE FOR WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR WEST TEXAS
FOR JANUARY AND CONTINUING ON THROUGH MARCH. TEMPERATURES FOR
JANUARY HAVE AN EQUAL CHANCE OF BEING NEAR...ABOVE OR BELOW
AVERAGE...WITH THE 3-MONTH FORECAST FOR JANUARY THROUGH MARCH HAVING
BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCES OF EXPERIENCING BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

ALL AREA RESERVOIRS SAW A SMALL DECLINE IN WATER LEVELS OVER THE
PAST MONTH.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON JANUARY 1ST:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION  POOL  5-WEEK MAXIMUM    PERCENT OF
                          POOL TODAY  CHANGE   DEPTH  CONSERVATION
                                              (FEET)      CAPACITY

MACKENZIE LAKE             3100 3009.6  -0.2      60             7
WHITE RIVER LAKE           2370 2342.9  -0.4      16             5
LAKE ALAN HENRY            2220 2209.9  -0.4      67            74


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON JANUARY 29 2015 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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