848
AXUS74 KLUB 251724
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-091730-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1224 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013
...LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MIDST OF THE PEAK FIRE
WEATHER SEASON...
SYNOPSIS...
SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED DROUGHT RELIEF IN LATE MARCH AND EARLY
APRIL FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND SNOWFALL. THE AREAS
THAT BENEFITED FROM THESE EVENTS ARE THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.9 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE PAST MONTH. SOME COOP OBSERVERS HAVE REPORTED OVER AN
INCH WHILE SOME REPORTED ONE-HALF INCH OR MORE. THOUGH THESE
RAINS ARE VERY BENEFICIAL...THEY HAVE DONE LITTLE TO EASE THE
IMPACT OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND FOR SOME AREAS...THE DROUGHT HAS
WORSENED DUE TO LACK OF PRECIPITATION.
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON
WITH FEW UNCONTROLLED BURNS REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. FUELS
CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRE CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT RAINFALL WILL START TO DRY
FUELS OUT AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF NEW VEGETATION GROWTH.
100-HOUR FUEL DRYNESS HAS REMAINED IN THE DRY CATEGORY AREA-WIDE
AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 75-89
RANGE AREA-WIDE WHICH SUGGESTS FUELS WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY READILY
AVAILABLE IF THEY BURN. FORECAST VALUES INDICATE THAT THE ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT AND 100-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME OR FALL SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TWO WEEKS.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DROPPING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CATEGORY...WHILE THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
REMAIN IN THE EXTREME DROUGHT CATEGORY. THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS IMPROVED JUST A BIT INTO
THE MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY...BUT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS REMAINS IN THE EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CATEGORIES. BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR 11 OF THE 24 COUNTIES
IN THE NWS LUBBOCK COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THE FIVE DAY AVERAGE FIRE DANGER IS CLASSIFIED AS MODERATE TO HIGH
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME DRY AIR MAY MANAGE TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AND AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER MAY RESULT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL REMOVE MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REGION BUT MAY
ALSO BRING PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE HARD FREEZE ON THE MORNING OF THE 24TH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WINTER WHEAT CROPS THAT WERE IN BOOT OR BLOOMING STAGES.
THERE MAY HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME DAMAGE TO IRRIGATION SYSTEMS AS
TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. DAMAGE FROM THIS LATE-SEASON HARD
FREEZE WILL BECOME APPARENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT QUALITY OF HAY AND RESULT IN MAJOR YIELD
REDUCTION IN WINTER WHEAT CROPS. COTTON FARMERS CONTINUED TO
PREPARE FIELDS WHILE WAITING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
TO BEGIN PLANTING. PASTURES WERE WAITING FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE GREENING AND REMAINED IN FAIR CONDITION. LIVESTOCK
ALSO REMAINED IN FAIR CONDITION AND RANCHERS CONTINUED
SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING ON COOL AND COLD DAYS.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE WEATHER DURING THE FIRST MONTH OF SPRING REMAINED HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
RAINFALL DEFICITS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD. COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF MARCH TURNED AROUND
BY THE END OF THE MONTH WITH READINGS ROUTINELY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS WARM SPELL WAS SHORT-LIVED AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVED INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST WEEK IN
APRIL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE SPOTTY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH WERE OBSERVED ON THE 1ST. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED THE FRONT...LASTING THROUGH THE 4TH
BEFORE STRONG...DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 8TH. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD
AIR OCCURRED ON THE 10TH WHEN A RECORD ARCTIC BLAST MOVED INTO THE
AREA. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED AND MOVED EAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THE 10TH BUT ONLY AMOUNTED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOCALIZED TOTALS FROM 1/3 TO 3/4 OF
AN INCH WERE SEEN. TEMPERATURES REMAINED ON A ROLLER COASTER
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE MONTH WITH READINGS WARMING INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ON THE 17TH AND 22ND. TWO MORE
UNSEASONABLY COLD OUTBREAKS FOLLOWED THESE WARM SPELLS RESULTING
IN RECORD COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HARD FREEZES ON THE 19TH AND
24TH. ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLDEST READINGS EVER RECORDED SO LATE
IN THE SEASON OCCURRED AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ON THE 24TH
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OF 25 AND 26 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FOR THE
REGION IN BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...WITH A COUPLE OF FRONTAL
PASSAGES STILL EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH PLAINS...HOWEVER THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...AND SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT...MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK. THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP OR NOT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARING THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF SEEING ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...
OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECLINE SINCE THE END OF
MARCH THROUGH LATE APRIL. THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE
REPORTED APRIL 25TH:
RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 4 WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
(FEET) (FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3006.4 -0.6 57 8
WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2341.5 -0.9 16 4
LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2208.1 -1.0 67 73
LAKE MEREDITH 2936 2840.9 -0.4 28.4 -11
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON MAY 9TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/
TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS 79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
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