746
AXUS74 KLUB 211803
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-041815-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
103 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013
...LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WE HEAD INTO
THE PEAK OF FIRE WEATHER SEASON...
SYNOPSIS...
THE ONGOING LONG TERM DROUGHT...WHICH BEGAN IN THE FALL OF 2010
IS APPROACHING TWO AND A HALF YEARS IN LENGTH. SOME OF OUR WATER
SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE EITHER EMPTY OR VERY NEAR SO. IN TERMS OF
THE AMOUNT OF OVERALL MOISTURE WE HAVE RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 24
TO 30 MONTHS...THE ONGOING DROUGHT RANKS FROM THE FIRST TO THIRD DRIEST
FOR SIMILAR LENGTH DROUGHTS. A DEVASTATING DROUGHT IN THE EARLY
1950S LASTED 6 YEARS.
LONG TERM RECORDS SHOW THE REGION SAW SIMILAR TWO-YEAR DROUGHTS
AROUND 1909-1910...1916-1918...1933-1934...1950-1956. SINCE 1956 THE
REGION HAS SEEN SOME BAD SINGLE YEAR DROUGHTS...BUT NOTHING OF
THIS EXTREME LASTING FOR TWO YEARS OR MORE.
WITH REGARDS TO SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WINTER PRECIPITATION IN
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY PROVIDED SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HAS FALLEN SINCE FEBRUARY 25TH. AS SUCH...SHORT
TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE.
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
THE NEXT FOUR TO FIVE WEEKS WILL MARK THE PEAK OF FIRE WEATHER AND
WIND STORM SEASON ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS. RECENTLY FUELS
HAVE LARGELY BEEN UN-SUPPORTIVE TO SUPPORT WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. DICKENS
COUNTY EXPERIENCED A SMALL FIRE STARTED BY LIGHTNING THIS PAST
SUNDAY...BUT THE LACK OF FUELS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SHORT-LIVED
RAIN SHOWER QUICKLY EXTINGUISHED IT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF GREENING HAS
OCCURRED...BUT A DRY MARCH WARRANTS CAUTION TOWARD ADDITIONAL
DRYING AS WE HEAD INTO PEAK FIRE SEASON.
100-HOUR FUEL DRYNESS HAS FALLEN INTO THE DRY CATEGORY AREA WIDE
AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 61-70
RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH SUGGEST THERE IS MORE ENERGY READILY
AVAILABLE TO BURN. THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH
AND ROLLING PLAINS ALONG WITH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
REMAIN IN THE 51-60 CATEGORY.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AREA...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS FOUND IN THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS. SEVERE TO EXTREME CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. NORTHEASTERN
CHILDRESS COUNTY HAS ALSO FALLEN INTO THIS CATEGORY. BURN BANS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR 10 OF THE 24 COUNTIES IN THE NWS LUBBOCK
COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THE FIVE-DAY AVERAGE FIRE DANGER IS CLASSIFIED AS MODERATE...WHILE
THIS IS FORECAST TO WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY
DRY AIR TO WEST TEXAS...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE AT RECEIVING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
LATE NEXT WEEK OFF THE CAPROCK.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
RECENT MOISTURE HAS BENEFITED CROPS AND IMPROVED RANGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE
BRAZOS RIVER. SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS WERE IMPROVED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WHILE OTHER AREAS HAD POOR SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
PREPARATIONS CONTINUE FOR THE PLANTING OF SPRING CROPS. DRYLAND
WINTER WHEAT CROPS THAT EMERGED IN THE FALL ARE REPORTED TO BE IN
GOOD CONDITION...BUT THOSE THAT DEVELOPED IN THE WINTER ARE RATED
IN POOR CONDITION BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF MOISTURE. LIVESTOCK
REMAINED MOSTLY IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION WITH RANCHERS CONTINUING
TO SUPPLEMENT FEED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. RANCHERS IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS HAD MORE VARIED RESULTS...THOSE WITH RANGELAND THAT
RECEIVED MOISTURE REPORTED IMPROVED PASTURE CONDITIONS. LITTLE HAY
WAS AVAILABLE WITH RANCHERS CONTINUING TO SUPPLEMENT FEED.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY HELP IMPROVE HAY GROWING CONDITIONS BUT
CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS MEANS THAT STOCK TANKS AND AREA LAKES
STILL NEED RUNOFF WATER TO PREVENT WATER SHORTAGES THROUGH THE
YEAR.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS FROM LATE FEBRUARY THROUGH MID MARCH WERE
HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE. THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY ENDED WITH A HISTORIC
BLIZZARD WHICH BROKE THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL FOR MANY
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM I-40 AND NORTHWARD
WHERE UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED. THIS
BROUGHT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO WEST TEXAS ALONG WITH
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE FROM THE SNOW MELT. MARCH STARTED OFF QUIET
BUT WINDY AS EXPECTED. BLOWING DUST WAS MINIMAL IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UNTIL MID MARCH WHEN A HABOOB MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE HABOOB WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE THAT PROVIDED LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WERE NOTED ALONG
WITH ISOLATED GUSTNADOES. THROUGH THE 21ST OF MARCH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH
HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL...BUT FOR THE YEAR REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FOR THE REGION IN
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. IN THE NEAR TERM...CURRENT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE HALTED AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE SECOND FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
BACK BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONTS...THOUGH AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE LAST WEEK IN MARCH A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNDERWAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF RECEIVING ABOVE
NORMAL...NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECLINE SINCE THE END OF
FEBRUARY THROUGH MID MARCH. THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED MARCH 21ST:
RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 4 WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
(FEET) (FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3007.0 -0.4 57 8
WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2342.4 -0.8 16 4
LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2209.1 -0.7 67 73
LAKE MEREDITH 2936 2841.3 -0.3 28.4 -11
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON APRIL 25TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY
IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/
TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS 79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
