910
AXUS74 KLUB 091655
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-091730-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1200 PM CDT THU MAY 9 2013
...LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO WORSEN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH PLAINS WHILE SOME MINOR SHORT-TERM RELIEF HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS...
SYNOPSIS...
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
NOTWITHSTANDING THE ON-GOING DROUGHT...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS HAVE
BEEN CONFINED AND INFREQUENT THIS SEASON. THIS IS OWING TO A MUCH
REDUCED FUEL LOAD AS DROUGHT HAS CONSTRICTED GROWTH OF GRASSES AND
SHRUBS FOR NEARLY THREE YEARS...AND SINCE VERY FEW CYCLONIC WIND
STORMS DEVELOPED IN THE TYPICAL PEAK MARCH-APRIL PERIOD. THE WIND
STORM SEASON IS NOW WINDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH AS WARMER WEATHER
DEVELOPS...DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL OCCASIONALLY TAP INTO
LINGERING STRONG FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL CREATE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
MORE STRONG WIND EVENTS IN THE WEEKS AHEAD ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
ALSO...ALTHOUGH FUEL LOADING HAS BEEN MINIMAL...THE EARLY SPRING
GREENING HAS CURED AFTER FREQUENT HARD FREEZES AND DRYNESS FOR THE
PAST 10 WEEKS. VEGETATION DROUGHT RESPONSE INDICES INDICATE
INCREASING STRESS IN RECENT WEEKS. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS
DEVELOPED BY THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE HAVE BECOME VERY HIGH ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE
MOST RECENT KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX FROM THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE
INDICATES MOST OF THE HIGH PLAINS REMAINING IN SEVERE DROUGHT WITH
LEVELS BETWEEN 600 AND 800...WHILE THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REPORTED MORE MODERATE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS BETWEEN 400 AND 600. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE COMING TWO WEEKS. ALL THIS INDICATES THERE REMAINS
RISK FOR RAPID BURN AND SPREAD TO DEVELOP IN THE WEEKS AHEAD OVER
AREAS WITH CONTIGUOUS FUEL LOADING COINCIDENTAL WITH STRONG WINDS
AND OR DRY LIGHTNING STORMS.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
WE NEED RAIN. SINCE MAY IS COTTON PLANTING SEASON..AND SEEDS NEED
MOISTURE TO GERMINATE..THE STATEMENT THAT WE NEED SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL CANNOT BE UNDERSTATED. OUTSIDE OF FIELDS WHERE IRRIGATION
IS AVAILABLE..SOIL MOISTURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW. LUBBOCK AS WELL
AS MOST OF THE REGION SAW VIRTUALLY NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DURING
MARCH OR APRIL. OVER THE LAST 3 OR 4 DAYS WE`VE SEEN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT THE PERCENTAGE OF LAND TO SEE AS MUCH AS 1 INCH
OF RAIN IS LESS THAN 1 PERCENT.
ON MAY 3RD FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN A ROW WE SAW ANOTHER HARD FREEZE
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THIS FREEZE SET RECORDS FOR THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO LATE IN THE SPRING AT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. LATE SEASON
FREEZES ARE HARD TO WINTER WHEAT CROPS THAT WERE IN THE BOOT OR
BLOOMING STAGES. COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF MOISTURE...THE LATE
FREEZES PUT THE WINTER WHEAT CROPS IN POOR CONDITION. 74 PCT OF THE
TEXAS AND 45 PCT OF THE OKLAHOMA WINTER WHEAT CROP IS LISTED AS
BEING IN POOR TO VERY POOR CONDITION.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE WEATHER DURING THE END OF APRIL AND THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY VARIED
GREATLY FROM WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THESE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE CAUSED BY
UNSEASONABLY STRONG LATE SEASON COLD FRONTS. THE LATEST FRONT THAT
PASSED THROUGH WEST TEXAS DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY BROUGHT WITH
IT THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ON RECORD FOR THE MONTH. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 20S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE LOW 30S IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS. THESE COLD
FRONTS ACTED TO SUPRESS PRECIPITATION AS THEY PUSHED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SOUTHWARD. IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SLOW TO
RETURN TO THE AREA AFTER BEING DISPLACED. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
SECOND WEEK OF MAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAD RETURNED TO WEST TEXAS
WITH LITTLE INTERFERENCE AND DID ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MANY AREAS DID RECEIVE MODEST AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL FROM THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EVEN THOUGH WHAT RAIN
THAT FELL WAS BENEFICIAL TO THOSE FORTUNATE AREAS...IT DID VERY
LITTLE TO EASE LONGER TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WERE JUST UNDER 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH. MOST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WERE BELOW 15 HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. AREAS IN THE ROLLING PLAINS
RECEIVED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EVENING OF MAY
8...BUT THIS IS NOT YET REFLECTED ON THE CURRENT DROUGHT MONITOR.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS ON FRIDAY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER
DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. BEYOND SATURDAY...THIS SAME UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MAY AGAIN BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. ALTHOUGH
PREDICTABILITY IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. NO
OTHER APPRECIABLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE ON THE
HORIZON THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
WARM FROM SATURDAY AND BEYOND AS DRIER AIR ENTERS WEST TEXAS. THE
EXTENDED OUTLOOK FROM MAY THROUGH JULY IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A 40
PERCENT CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND 33 PERCENT CHANCE OF
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE SHOWN A CONTINUED SLOW DECLINE SINCE THE END OF
FROM LATE APRIL THROUGH EARLY MAY. THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR
CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED APRIL 25TH:
RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 2 WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
(FEET) (FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3006.1 -0.3 57 8
WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2341.2 -0.3 16 2
LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2207.8 -0.3 67 69
LAKE MEREDITH 2936 2840.6 -0.3 28.4 -11
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON MAY 23RD OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/
TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS 79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
848
AXUS74 KLUB 251724
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-091730-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1224 PM CDT THU APR 25 2013
...LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTH PLAINS AS WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MIDST OF THE PEAK FIRE
WEATHER SEASON...
SYNOPSIS...
SOME AREAS HAVE RECEIVED DROUGHT RELIEF IN LATE MARCH AND EARLY
APRIL FROM ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND SNOWFALL. THE AREAS
THAT BENEFITED FROM THESE EVENTS ARE THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. CHILDRESS AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.9 INCHES OF
RAIN IN THE PAST MONTH. SOME COOP OBSERVERS HAVE REPORTED OVER AN
INCH WHILE SOME REPORTED ONE-HALF INCH OR MORE. THOUGH THESE
RAINS ARE VERY BENEFICIAL...THEY HAVE DONE LITTLE TO EASE THE
IMPACT OF THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND FOR SOME AREAS...THE DROUGHT HAS
WORSENED DUE TO LACK OF PRECIPITATION.
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
IT HAS BEEN A RELATIVELY QUIET START TO THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON
WITH FEW UNCONTROLLED BURNS REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION. FUELS
CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT UNSUPPORTIVE OF WILDFIRE CONDITIONS...
HOWEVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD WITHOUT RAINFALL WILL START TO DRY
FUELS OUT AND LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF NEW VEGETATION GROWTH.
100-HOUR FUEL DRYNESS HAS REMAINED IN THE DRY CATEGORY AREA-WIDE
AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 75-89
RANGE AREA-WIDE WHICH SUGGESTS FUELS WILL HAVE MORE ENERGY READILY
AVAILABLE IF THEY BURN. FORECAST VALUES INDICATE THAT THE ENERGY
RELEASE COMPONENT AND 100-HOUR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WILL REMAIN
THE SAME OR FALL SLIGHTLY FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO TWO WEEKS.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DROPPING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CATEGORY...WHILE THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
REMAIN IN THE EXTREME DROUGHT CATEGORY. THE NORTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS INTO EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE HAS IMPROVED JUST A BIT INTO
THE MODERATE DROUGHT CATEGORY...BUT THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS REMAINS IN THE EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
CATEGORIES. BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR 11 OF THE 24 COUNTIES
IN THE NWS LUBBOCK COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THE FIVE DAY AVERAGE FIRE DANGER IS CLASSIFIED AS MODERATE TO HIGH
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF WEEKS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE FIRE DANGER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...SOME DRY AIR MAY MANAGE TO PUSH INTO
THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AND AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER MAY RESULT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK WHICH
WILL REMOVE MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE REGION BUT MAY
ALSO BRING PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE HARD FREEZE ON THE MORNING OF THE 24TH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON WINTER WHEAT CROPS THAT WERE IN BOOT OR BLOOMING STAGES.
THERE MAY HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME DAMAGE TO IRRIGATION SYSTEMS AS
TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE UPPER TEENS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS AND LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. DAMAGE FROM THIS LATE-SEASON HARD
FREEZE WILL BECOME APPARENT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT QUALITY OF HAY AND RESULT IN MAJOR YIELD
REDUCTION IN WINTER WHEAT CROPS. COTTON FARMERS CONTINUED TO
PREPARE FIELDS WHILE WAITING FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
TO BEGIN PLANTING. PASTURES WERE WAITING FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE GREENING AND REMAINED IN FAIR CONDITION. LIVESTOCK
ALSO REMAINED IN FAIR CONDITION AND RANCHERS CONTINUED
SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING ON COOL AND COLD DAYS.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE WEATHER DURING THE FIRST MONTH OF SPRING REMAINED HIGHLY
VARIABLE ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION WITH REGARD TO
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED WITH MOST AREAS SEEING
RAINFALL DEFICITS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD. COOL CONDITIONS DURING THE MIDDLE OF MARCH TURNED AROUND
BY THE END OF THE MONTH WITH READINGS ROUTINELY 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS WARM SPELL WAS SHORT-LIVED AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL
STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVED INTO THE REGION DURING THE FIRST WEEK IN
APRIL. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN PANHANDLE WHERE SPOTTY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH WERE OBSERVED ON THE 1ST. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED THE FRONT...LASTING THROUGH THE 4TH
BEFORE STRONG...DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPED BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE 8TH. A SECOND SURGE OF COLD
AIR OCCURRED ON THE 10TH WHEN A RECORD ARCTIC BLAST MOVED INTO THE
AREA. MIXED PRECIPITATION DEVELOPED AND MOVED EAST DURING THE
MORNING HOURS ON THE 10TH BUT ONLY AMOUNTED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH ON THE CAPROCK. HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS WHERE LOCALIZED TOTALS FROM 1/3 TO 3/4 OF
AN INCH WERE SEEN. TEMPERATURES REMAINED ON A ROLLER COASTER
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE MONTH WITH READINGS WARMING INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ON THE 17TH AND 22ND. TWO MORE
UNSEASONABLY COLD OUTBREAKS FOLLOWED THESE WARM SPELLS RESULTING
IN RECORD COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HARD FREEZES ON THE 19TH AND
24TH. ALSO OF NOTE...THE COLDEST READINGS EVER RECORDED SO LATE
IN THE SEASON OCCURRED AT BOTH LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS ON THE 24TH
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OF 25 AND 26 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FOR THE
REGION IN BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM...WITH A COUPLE OF FRONTAL
PASSAGES STILL EXPECTED TO PLAGUE THE AREA. IN THE SHORT TERM...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT. THERE ARE HINTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHEASTERN
SOUTH PLAINS...HOWEVER THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LIKELY
OCCUR WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED LATE TOMORROW NIGHT...AND SOME
COMPUTER MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT...MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK. THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY SLIGHTLY INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ABLE TO DEVELOP OR NOT. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEARING THE
AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER BREEZY
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE WILL BE SOME MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WHICH MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION.
THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF SEEING ABOVE NORMAL...NORMAL...
OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECLINE SINCE THE END OF
MARCH THROUGH LATE APRIL. THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE
REPORTED APRIL 25TH:
RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 4 WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
(FEET) (FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3006.4 -0.6 57 8
WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2341.5 -0.9 16 4
LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2208.1 -1.0 67 73
LAKE MEREDITH 2936 2840.9 -0.4 28.4 -11
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON MAY 9TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/
TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS 79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
746
AXUS74 KLUB 211803
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-041815-
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
103 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013
...LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN UNCHANGED AS WE HEAD INTO
THE PEAK OF FIRE WEATHER SEASON...
SYNOPSIS...
THE ONGOING LONG TERM DROUGHT...WHICH BEGAN IN THE FALL OF 2010
IS APPROACHING TWO AND A HALF YEARS IN LENGTH. SOME OF OUR WATER
SUPPLY RESERVOIRS ARE EITHER EMPTY OR VERY NEAR SO. IN TERMS OF
THE AMOUNT OF OVERALL MOISTURE WE HAVE RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 24
TO 30 MONTHS...THE ONGOING DROUGHT RANKS FROM THE FIRST TO THIRD DRIEST
FOR SIMILAR LENGTH DROUGHTS. A DEVASTATING DROUGHT IN THE EARLY
1950S LASTED 6 YEARS.
LONG TERM RECORDS SHOW THE REGION SAW SIMILAR TWO-YEAR DROUGHTS
AROUND 1909-1910...1916-1918...1933-1934...1950-1956. SINCE 1956 THE
REGION HAS SEEN SOME BAD SINGLE YEAR DROUGHTS...BUT NOTHING OF
THIS EXTREME LASTING FOR TWO YEARS OR MORE.
WITH REGARDS TO SHORT TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS...WINTER PRECIPITATION IN
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY PROVIDED SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HAS FALLEN SINCE FEBRUARY 25TH. AS SUCH...SHORT
TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE.
FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS...
THE NEXT FOUR TO FIVE WEEKS WILL MARK THE PEAK OF FIRE WEATHER AND
WIND STORM SEASON ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS. RECENTLY FUELS
HAVE LARGELY BEEN UN-SUPPORTIVE TO SUPPORT WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. DICKENS
COUNTY EXPERIENCED A SMALL FIRE STARTED BY LIGHTNING THIS PAST
SUNDAY...BUT THE LACK OF FUELS COMBINED WITH A LIGHT SHORT-LIVED
RAIN SHOWER QUICKLY EXTINGUISHED IT. A GOOD AMOUNT OF GREENING HAS
OCCURRED...BUT A DRY MARCH WARRANTS CAUTION TOWARD ADDITIONAL
DRYING AS WE HEAD INTO PEAK FIRE SEASON.
100-HOUR FUEL DRYNESS HAS FALLEN INTO THE DRY CATEGORY AREA WIDE
AND ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES HAVE CREPT UP INTO THE 61-70
RANGE ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND
ROLLING PLAINS...WHICH SUGGEST THERE IS MORE ENERGY READILY
AVAILABLE TO BURN. THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE SOUTH
AND ROLLING PLAINS ALONG WITH THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
REMAIN IN THE 51-60 CATEGORY.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE AREA...WITH THE WORST
CONDITIONS FOUND IN THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE NEAR THE TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO STATE
LINE...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
ABNORMALLY DRY TO MODERATE CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS. SEVERE TO EXTREME CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE
EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. NORTHEASTERN
CHILDRESS COUNTY HAS ALSO FALLEN INTO THIS CATEGORY. BURN BANS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR 10 OF THE 24 COUNTIES IN THE NWS LUBBOCK
COUNTY WARNING AREA.
THE FIVE-DAY AVERAGE FIRE DANGER IS CLASSIFIED AS MODERATE...WHILE
THIS IS FORECAST TO WORSEN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM BRINGS WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY
DRY AIR TO WEST TEXAS...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL. THE NEXT CHANCE AT RECEIVING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
LATE NEXT WEEK OFF THE CAPROCK.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
RECENT MOISTURE HAS BENEFITED CROPS AND IMPROVED RANGE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTH PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN ROLLING PLAINS ALONG THE
BRAZOS RIVER. SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS WERE IMPROVED OVER PORTIONS OF
THE REGION WHILE OTHER AREAS HAD POOR SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
PREPARATIONS CONTINUE FOR THE PLANTING OF SPRING CROPS. DRYLAND
WINTER WHEAT CROPS THAT EMERGED IN THE FALL ARE REPORTED TO BE IN
GOOD CONDITION...BUT THOSE THAT DEVELOPED IN THE WINTER ARE RATED
IN POOR CONDITION BECAUSE OF THE TIMING OF MOISTURE. LIVESTOCK
REMAINED MOSTLY IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION WITH RANCHERS CONTINUING
TO SUPPLEMENT FEED ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS. RANCHERS IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS HAD MORE VARIED RESULTS...THOSE WITH RANGELAND THAT
RECEIVED MOISTURE REPORTED IMPROVED PASTURE CONDITIONS. LITTLE HAY
WAS AVAILABLE WITH RANCHERS CONTINUING TO SUPPLEMENT FEED.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MAY HELP IMPROVE HAY GROWING CONDITIONS BUT
CONTINUED DROUGHT CONDITIONS MEANS THAT STOCK TANKS AND AREA LAKES
STILL NEED RUNOFF WATER TO PREVENT WATER SHORTAGES THROUGH THE
YEAR.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE WEATHER PATTERNS FROM LATE FEBRUARY THROUGH MID MARCH WERE
HIGHLY PROGRESSIVE. THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY ENDED WITH A HISTORIC
BLIZZARD WHICH BROKE THE DAILY RECORD SNOWFALL FOR MANY
PLACES...ESPECIALLY IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM I-40 AND NORTHWARD
WHERE UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WAS REPORTED. THIS
BROUGHT WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO WEST TEXAS ALONG WITH
MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE FROM THE SNOW MELT. MARCH STARTED OFF QUIET
BUT WINDY AS EXPECTED. BLOWING DUST WAS MINIMAL IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS UNTIL MID MARCH WHEN A HABOOB MOVED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE HABOOB WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE THAT PROVIDED LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WERE NOTED ALONG
WITH ISOLATED GUSTNADOES. THROUGH THE 21ST OF MARCH...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LOW
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL. PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH
HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL...BUT FOR THE YEAR REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR FOR THE REGION IN
BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG TERM. IN THE NEAR TERM...CURRENT ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE HALTED AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ON SUNDAY. THE SECOND FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
BACK BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONTS...THOUGH AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED. BY
THE BEGINNING OF THE LAST WEEK IN MARCH A GRADUAL WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNDERWAY GIVEN A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT
THE SURFACE. THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS FAVORS
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF RECEIVING ABOVE
NORMAL...NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECLINE SINCE THE END OF
FEBRUARY THROUGH MID MARCH. THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS
WERE REPORTED MARCH 21ST:
RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 4 WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
(FEET) (FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE 3100 3007.0 -0.4 57 8
WHITE RIVER LAKE 2370 2342.4 -0.8 16 4
LAKE ALAN HENRY 2220 2209.1 -0.7 67 73
LAKE MEREDITH 2936 2841.3 -0.3 28.4 -11
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON APRIL 25TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY
IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:
DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/
OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://WWW.MET.TAMU.EDU/OSC/
NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/
USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/
USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/
USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/
TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS 79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
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