Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS

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178
AXUS74 KLUB 241908
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-101730-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
0200 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

...DROUGHT HAS DETERIORATED EVEN FURTHER FOR MOST OF THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION...

SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MONTH OF APRIL CONTRIBUTED TO
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT WEST TEXAS.  D4 EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH LARGE SECTIONS OF THE ROLLING PLAINS
AND SOUTH PLAINS.  ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...D3 EXTREME
DROUGHT REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...WHERE A NARROW SLIVER OF D2 SEVERE
DROUGHT REMAINS IN PLACE.  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DID
MANAGE TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO A FEW FORTUNATE
AREAS...PARTICULARLY OVER CHILDRESS COUNTY AND TO A LESSER EXTENT IN
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS.  HOWEVER...THE
COVERAGE OF THIS RAINFALL WAS VERY LIMITED AND DID NOT MEANINGFULLY
IMPROVE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE REGION.  AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL WET SEASON FOR THE HIGH PLAINS
AND ALSO PLANTING SEASON FOR AREA FARMERS...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
BADLY NEEDED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS BOTH FOR PLANTING AND ALSO
FOR THE IMPROVEMENT OF NATURAL VEGETATION THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
UNFORTUNATELY...PROSPECTS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE LOW
THROUGH THE END OF APRIL AND INTO EARLY MAY...WITH EQUAL CHANCES OF
ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF MAY.


AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
GIVEN THE SCANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA...
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS REMAIN QUITE PRONOUNCED WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
IN EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS.  SOME MILD RELIEF WAS
NOTED FROM BROWNFIELD TO LUBBOCK WHERE A MODEST ONE HALF TO ONE INCH
OF PRECIPITATION WAS RECEIVED LAST WEEKEND.  WE HAVE SEEN SOME
MULTI-INCH RAINS IN THE  SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLE AND NEARLY ONE INCH
RAINS IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS THOUGH THE IMPACTS ARE LOCALIZED.
MANY FIELDS REMAIN BARREN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH
PLAINS WHICH CONTRIBUTED TO BLOWING DUST. WHEAT CROPS WERE REQUIRING
SIGNIFICANT IRRIGATION AS THE PLANTS APPROACHED THE FLAG LEAF
STAGE.  SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDS WERE REQUIRED TO SUPPORT CALVING THOUGH
SOME RANCHERS REPORTED GOOD GAINS WHERE STOCKING RATES WERE
LIMITED.   IN THE ROLLING PLAINS...PASTURES AND CROPLANDS REMAINED
IN POOR CONDITION WITH HIGH WINDS FURTHER DAMAGING CROPS.  LACK OF
GRAZING LANDS FORCED SOME PRODUCERS TO CONSIDER SELLING THE
REMAINDER OF THEIR HERDS.  IN THE SOUTH PLAINS...THE RAINFALL
RECEIVED HELPED MITIGATE SOME EROSION ISSUES.  HOWEVER...A LATE
FREEZE ON 15 APRIL IMPACTED SOME ORCHARD AND VINEYARD OPERATORS
THOUGH WINTER WHEAT DAMAGE APPEARED MINIMAL.  RANGELAND AND PASTURES
WERE MOSTLY IN FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SUPPLEMENTAL FEED REQUIRED IN
SOME LOCATIONS.  CATTLE REMAINED IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
A VERY DRY...WARM...AND WINDY PERIOD WILL EVOLVE STARTING LATE THIS
WEEK CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY TURN INTO THE LONGEST
EPOCH OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THUS FAR THIS SPRING. FIRE WEATHER
SEASON IS FAR FROM FINISHED. AND GIVEN THE LACK OF RAIN AND SEASONAL
GREENUP...IT IS CAPABLE OF EXTENDING WELL INTO THE MONTH OF MAY.
ALTHOUGH ONLY LIMITED LARGE FIRES THIS SPRING HAVE OCCURRED...
AGENCIES ARE URGED TO MONITOR AREAS WITH LARGER OR CONTIGUOUS FUEL
LOADS. UNTIL GREENUP OCCURS...THE DRY GRASS AND BRUSHY AREAS WILL
REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE SPREAD. AND EVEN SMALLER FIRES MAY BE
CAPABLE OF EXTREME BEHAVIOR. THE LATEST KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX
NUMBERS RANGED FROM 400 TO 600 ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH HIGHEST VALUES
OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND LOWEST AROUND CHILDRESS COUNTY
WHICH HAS SEEN THE MOST RECENT HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ENERGY RELEASE
COMPONENTS HAVE CONSISTENTLY BEEN ABOVE NORMAL THIS SPRING...WITH
EPISODES GREATER THAN THE 90TH PERCENTILE ALIGNING WITH THE WINDIER
AND WARMER PERIODS. COUNTY BURN BANS WERE IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE END OF MARCH AND THE FIRST COUPLE OF WEEKS OF APRIL WERE DRY FOR
MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THE LAST WEEK OF MARCH WERE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE WARM UP LASTING INTO THE FIRST FEW
DAYS OF APRIL BEFORE COOLER AIR SETTLED IN BRINGING TEMPS TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THIS COOLER WEATHER DID BRING SOME
MOISTURE TO THE REGION WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING UP TO ONE QUARTER
OF AN INCH OF RAIN DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL. FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WAS STILL PRESENT DURING THE BEGINNING OF APRIL AS
SOME STATIONS...INCLUDING THE LUBBOCK INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...REPORTED SOME FALLING SNOW OR SLEET OF AROUND A TRACE.
SOME COOP OBSERVERS IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE REPORTED UP TO
THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOWFALL THAT QUICKLY MELTED AFTER
SUNRISE.

BEYOND THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL...THE AREA REMAINED MOSTLY DRY BUT
TEMPERATURES RODE A ROLLER COASTER GOING FROM AN AVERAGE OF 8
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AFTER AN
ARCTIC FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION ON THE 14TH. THIS FRONT
BROUGHT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION WITH MOST STATIONS THAT
REPORTED HAVING PRECIPITATION REPORTED ONLY A TRACE OF ACCUMULATION.
MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM DID STAY PUT FOR 5 DAYS WHICH AIDED IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE 19TH AND 20TH IN
WHICH MOST OF THE REGION...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. AREAS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND THE SOUTHWESTERN ROLLING PLAINS SAW
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN RECEIVING FROM A TRACE TO JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. THE AREA THAT BENEFITED THE MOST DURING THIS
EVENT WERE AREAS IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HIGHEST PRECIP REPORT DURING THESE 2 DAYS WAS
THE WEST TEXAS MESONET TWO MILES NORTHEAST OF CHILDRESS WHICH
RECEIVED 3.25 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FELL DURING THE
EVENING OF THE 23RD IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS BRINGING UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL...BUT ISOLATED...HALF INCH OF RAIN.

DESPITE THE MUCH NEEDED AND VERY WELCOMED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST
WEEK THE REGION STILL REMAINS IN AN OVERALL DEFICIT. SINCE APRIL 1ST
TO DATE THE LUBBOCK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT REMAINS JUST BELOW ONE
HALF INCH OF PRECIPITATION BELOW AVERAGE WHILE THE CHILDRESS
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT IS RIGHT ON AVERAGE WITH 1.51 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION...MOST OF WHICH FELL DURING THE EVENING OF THE 20TH.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOUT ONE HALF DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT
THE REGION.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO END APRIL AND BEGIN THE
MONTH OF MAY. HOWEVER...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE TO THE ROLLING PLAINS AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT...APRIL 26TH. THIS
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE STUBBORN IN MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL US
LEAVING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST
THE NEXT WEEK. THIS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY THE FIRST WEEK IN MAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS STUBBORN SYSTEM AND WILL TEND TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES BUT KEEP PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE REGION. SOME RELIEF
TO THE LACK OF PRECIPITATION MAY ENTER THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF
MAY IN THE PEAK OF THE WET SEASON FOR WEST TEXAS.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
LEVELS OF THE THREE AREA RESERVOIRS CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TREND
OVER THE PAST 4 WEEKS DROPPING BETWEEN 0.4 TO 0.7 FEET.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON MARCH 27TH:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 4-WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
                         POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH  CONSERVATION
                                           (FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE           3100 3001.9 -0.4    52       5
WHITE RIVER LAKE         2370 2337.4 -0.5    10       0
LAKE ALAN HENRY          2220 2204.3 -0.7    61      62


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON MAY 29TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN
RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT
HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES... THE TEXAS
TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$
976
AXUS74 KLUB 271722
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-101730-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1222 PM CDT THU MAR 27 2014

...DROUGHT HAS DETERIORATED EVEN FURTHER FOR MOST OF THE TEXAS
SOUTH PLAINS REGION...

SYNOPSIS...
A VERY DRY START TO THE NEW YEAR HAS LED TO EXPANSION OF EXTREME
DROUGHT FROM THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS AND MOST OF THE ROLLING PLAINS.
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT REMAINED ACROSS WESTERN BRISCOE...EASTERN
SWISHER...AND MUCH OF FLOYD COUNTIES...WHILE SOMEWHAT LESS SEVERE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAINED ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AROUND GARZA COUNTY.

THE LACK OF MOISTURE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO LESS SURVIVAL OF WINTER
GRASSES THAN NORMAL...AND THUS MORE OPEN LAND TO PROVIDE SOURCES
OF DUST FOR THE FREQUENT WIND STORMS IN SPRING. DUST STORM
ORIGINATION AREAS ALSO HAVE EXPANDED MORE INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE EXTENDED
DROUGHT. SEVERAL RECENT SEVERE WIND AND DUST STORMS...WITH WIND
SPEEDS FROM 30 TO 50 MPH...ALREADY HAVE ENVELOPED THE REGION. IN
PAST DROUGHT CYCLES...THESE TYPES OF CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO
FEED UPON THEMSELVES...WITH MORE OPEN LAND LEADING TO HIGHER
TEMPERATURES AND EVAPORATION RATES...AND THUS EVEN LESS MOISTURE
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WARMER MONTHS AHEAD. SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS BADLY NEEDED IN THE COMING 5 TO 10 WEEKS IN ORDER
TO IMPROVE THE CHANCES FOR SUCCESSFUL SUMMER CROPS AND ALSO TO
PROVIDE ADEQUATE VEGETATIVE COVER TO HOLD SOIL DOWN AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGES.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
OTHER THAN A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS WHICH HAVE
RECEIVED BENEFICIAL MOISTURE...THUS PROMOTING WHEAT GROWTH...
THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WAS SUFFERING FROM THE EXTREME DROUGHT.
VERY DRY SOILS TO SEVERAL FEET IN DEPTH AND LACK OF GROUND COVER
HAVE MADE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO HOLD THE DIRT IN PLACE. PRE-PLANTING
ACTIVITIES WERE STRUGGLING UNDER THESE CONDITIONS...IN BETWEEN THE
DUST STORMS AND OCCASIONAL WALLS OF DUST OR HABOOBS ALONG COLD
FRONTS. WINTER WHEAT ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WAS SUFFERING WITH
SOME PLANT DISEASES OBSERVED. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS CONTINUED TO
SUPPLEMENT FEED TO CATTLE. PASTURES WITH SURVIVING GRASSES MAINLY
OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS WERE BADLY IN NEED OF MOISTURE TO BRING
OUT SUMMER GRASSES AND SUPPLY ENOUGH GRAZING FOR LIVESTOCK.

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE...ONLY SLIGHT GREENING OF VEGETATION
HAS BEEN NOTED THUS FAR. GRASSES AND OTHER FINE FUELS REMAINED VERY
DRY AND PRONE TO FIRE SPREAD. CONTIGUOUS AREAS OF THE DRY FUELS
REMAINED LIMITED AFTER THE LONG DROUGHT. BUT A NUMBER OF AREAS OF
CONCERN FOR LARGE FIRE SPREAD STILL EXISTED...ESPECIALLY FROM THE
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS AN AREA THAT RECEIVED NEARLY NORMAL
PRECIPITATION LAST SUMMER AND EARLY FALL...AND THUS A MORE ROBUST
GROWTH OF GRASSES. BUT ALL AREAS REMAINED SUSCEPTIBLE TO SMALLER
BUT VERY ACTIVE FIRE GROWTH. WITH THE RECENT TURN TO DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS...THE ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENTS HAVE MORE
FREQUENTLY BEEN APPROACHING THE CRITICAL 90 PERCENT LEVELS...WHICH
CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE ACTIVE FIRE FRONT. BECAUSE
OF THE EXTREME CONDITIONS...BURN BANS NOW COVERED MOST COUNTIES IN
THE REGION. APRIL IS TYPICALLY THE PEAK OF FIRE SEASON FOR THE
TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS REGION...AS THE SEVERE WIND STORMS TEND TO
OVERLAP WITH THE WARMING AND STILL CURED FUEL LOAD. WILDFIRES THUS
FAR THIS WINTER AND SPRING HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE THAN
LAST YEAR. DILIGENCE IN ASSURING CONTROL OF PRESCRIBED BURNS AND
OTHER ACTIVITIES INVOLVING HEAT SOURCES WILL BE CRITICAL. LAND
MANAGERS ARE URGED TO CHECK WITH LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT IF PLANNING
A BURN...AND TO REQUEST A SPOT WEATHER FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
MARCH BROUGHT VARIABLE WEATHER TO WEST TEXAS AS IT QUITE COMMON
FOR EARLY SPRING...WITH PERIODIC COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH
APPROXIMATELY EVERY TWO TO THREE DAYS ON AVERAGE. IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONTS...SEVERAL DAYS SAW HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 70S AND
80S...WHILE AVERAGE TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED
EACH FRONT. OVERALL...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 26TH OF MARCH
AVERAGED ABOUT 2 DEGREES BELOW THE MEDIAN FOR THIS STRETCH OVER
THE 102 YEARS OF RECORDS AT LUBBOCK.

SEVERAL OF THE COLD FRONTS AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
DID BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...THOUGH AMOUNTS WERE
GENERALLY LIGHT. ONE EVENT ON MARCH 2ND BROUGHT ANYWHERE FROM A
TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID...WHICH FELL IN THE
FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FAVORED
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE ON THE 2ND AND INCLUDED AN INCH OF
SNOW AT DIMMITT AND MATADOR. ANOTHER BOUT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AFFECTED THE REGION ON MARCH 15TH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DROPPED A TENTH TO HALF INCH IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS.
IN ADDITION...ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS DROPPED UP TO A COUPLE
TENTHS OF AN INCH OVER THE SOUTHWEST SOUTH PLAINS. A FINAL ROUND
OF RAIN AFFECTED MOST OF THE AREA ON THE MORNING OF THE 26TH WITH
MANY SPOTS PICKING UP SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH. ALL SAID...RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THE 26TH OF MARCH VARIED FROM
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH IN POCKETS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS...WITH A MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS
RECEIVING ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS
COMPARES TO THE MONTHLY NORMALS WHICH RANGE FROM AROUND AN INCH ON
THE CAPROCK TO AN INCH AN A HALF IN THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS.
THUS...MOST LOCATIONS AGAIN SAW A DEFICIT IN PRECIPITATION WHEN
COMPARED TO NORMAL...WITH 25 TO 75 PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES
COMMON...AND POCKETS OF 25 PERCENT OR LESS OF NORMAL OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO THE ROLLING PLAINS.

LOOKING BACK MUCH FURTHER...THE PAST THREE AND A HALF YEAR PERIOD
SINCE OCTOBER OF 2011 HAS BEEN THE DRIEST ON RECORD AT
LUBBOCK...TOTALING ONLY 32.98 INCHES. THIS IS OVER 8 INCHES LESS
THAN THE PREVIOUS DRIEST 42 MONTH PERIOD THAT OCCURRED IN THE
MID-1950S AND IS ABOUT 30 INCHES LESS THAN NORMAL FOR THIS STRETCH.
THIS IS CERTAINLY A TESTAMENT TO HOW PROLONGED AND INTENSE THIS
CURRENT DROUGHT HAS BEEN.

ADDITIONALLY...THIS MARCH BROUGHT SEVERAL ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND
BLOWING DUST INCLUDING MORE EXTREME EVENTS ON MARCH 11TH AND MARCH
18TH.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
SEASONABLY MILD TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF APRIL. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE ROLLING PLAINS BY TUESDAY...APRIL
2ND.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLS
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION FROM
APRIL 1ST THROUGH 5TH. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...THE ONE MONTH
OUTLOOK FOR APRIL AND THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FOR THE APRIL-MAY-JUNE
TIME-FRAME FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF
BELOW NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL OR NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RESERVOIRS LEVELS TRENDED DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST MONTH...
DROPPING BETWEEN 0.3 AND 0.5 FEET OVER THE PAST FOUR WEEKS. SINCE
EARLY OCTOBER 2013...LAKE LEVELS HAVE DECREASED BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2.1
FEET.

THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON MARCH 27TH:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 4-WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
                         POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
                                           (FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE           3100 3002.3 -0.3    52       5
WHITE RIVER LAKE         2370 2337.9 -0.4    11       0
LAKE ALAN HENRY          2220 2205.0 -0.5    62      63


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON APRIL 24TH OR SOONER IF NECESSARY
IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...
THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT
HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES... THE TEXAS
TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$
958
AXUS74 KLUB 281956
DGTLUB
TXC017-045-069-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-
279-303-305-345-369-433-437-445-501-131715-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
200 PM CST THU FEB 28 2014

...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS
PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS...

SYNOPSIS...
ACROSS WEST TEXAS...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH
FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES.  ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND
ROLLING PLAINS...SEVERE DROUGHT LEVELS OR WORSE PERSIST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF BAILEY AND GARZA COUNTIES...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
CATEGORIZED AS EXPERIENCING ONLY MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS.  AT
THE PRESENT TIME...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS...
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS ARE
EXPERIENCING THE MOST SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH CONDITIONS
CATEGORIZED AS BEING EXTREME.  A SMALL AREA OF EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT
WAS NOTED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN BRISCOE COUNTY.  THE LACK OF
IMPROVEMENT IS MOSTLY DUE TO A DEARTH OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A SIGNIFICANT
WINTER STORM WHICH PRODUCED AS MUCH AS ONE FOOT OF SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS EARLY IN THE MONTH.  WHILE THIS SNOW WAS
VERY BENEFICIAL TO THESE AREAS...IT WAS NOT ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPROVE LONG TERM DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY ITSELF.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS...WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUED TO REDUCE
SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS.  FARMERS CONTINUED PREPARING FOR SPRING
PLANTING AND REPORTED WINTER WHEAT WAS IN FAIR CONDITION AND IN NEED
OF RAIN.

THE ROLLING PLAINS ALSO SAW CONTINUED PREPARATION OF FIELDS FOR THE
UPCOMING CROP YEAR.  REPORTS OF HIGHLY VARIABLE SOIL MOISTURE
AMOUNTS WERE REPORTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN
AND SNOW VERSUS THOSE THAT DID NOT.  NON-TILL FIELDS HAD MOISTURE TO
FOUR FEET DEEP WHILE OTHER PASTURES HAD MOISTURE DEPTH ONLY TO 6
INCHES.  ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW HELPED WINTER WHEAT
CROPS...RECENT DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE SLOWED GROWTH.
LIVESTOCK WERE IN FAIR TO GOOD CONDITION BUT LACK OF GROWTH ON
WINTER WHEAT FIELDS HAS RESULTED IN SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING TO
CONTINUE.  PONDS AND STOCK WATER TANKS ARE IN NEED OF RUNOFF TO
REPLENISH SURFACE WATER LEVELS.


FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
REGIONAL FUELS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE VOLATILE FOR WILDFIRE
ACTIVITY. ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT VALUES THROUGHOUT THE REGION
EXPERIENCED A SHARP INCREASE FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF UNSEASONABLE COLD
AND INTERMITTENT MOISTURE EARLIER THIS MONTH. ERC VALUES CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM AROUND 55 IN THE ROLLING PLAINS TO 60 WEST OF THE CAPROCK
ESCARPMENT. THESE VALUES ARE VERY NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
HISTORICAL WILDFIRE ACTIVITY AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS
TERRITORY THROUGH EARLY MARCH AS DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO PERSIST.

AS WE TRANSITION INTO SPRING...THE FREQUENCY FOR WARM AND WINDY
PATTERNS INCREASES ACROSS WEST TEXAS. APPRECIABLE MOISTURE APPEARS
UNLIKELY FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS...SO REGIONAL FUELS WILL REMAIN
PRIMED FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY AND ANY GREENING OF FUELS WILL LIKELY
BE MINIMAL AND LOCALIZED.

OUT OF THE 24 COUNTIES IN THE NWS LUBBOCK AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY...THE FOLLOWING EIGHT COUNTIES ARE UNDER BURN BANS...
PARMER...CASTRO...CHILDRESS...FLOYD...COCHRAN...KING...TERRY...AND
GARZA.


CLIMATE SUMMARY...
FEBRUARY REMAINED LARGELY FREE OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FEBRUARY 2ND...WHEN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ROLLING
PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS RECEIVED AS MUCH AS 12 INCHES OF
SNOW IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD.  WHILE THIS WAS CERTAINLY A SIGNIFICANT
EVENT AND VERY BENEFICIAL TO THOSE WHO SAW THE HEAVIEST SNOW... THE
LACK OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE MONTH
PREVENTED THE REGION FROM REALIZING ANY MAJOR IMPROVEMENTS TO
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.  OTHERWISE...FEBRUARY WAS A MONTH OF WILDLY
VARYING TEMPERATURES...AS THE REGION ALTERNATED BETWEEN VERY WARM
PERIODS REACHING INTO THE 70S AND 80S...AND ARCTIC COLD FRONTS
BRINGING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.  IN THE END...
DAILY TEMPERATURES AT THE LUBBOCK AIRPORT WERE APPROXIMATELY TWO
DEGREES BELOW THE 100 YEAR AVERAGE FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY.  IN
CHILDRESS...TEMPERATURES WERE MARKEDLY COOLER RESULTING FROM A
PROLIFERATION OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS...WITH AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURES APPROXIMATELY 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF
FEBRUARY.  INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH...BOTH THE LUBBOCK AND CHILDRESS
AIRPORT STATIONS RECORDED ONE DAILY RECORD HIGH AND A RECORD LOW
DURING THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A HIGHLY VARIABLE
MONTH OF TEMPERATURES.


PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
BREEZY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY...BUT WILL ABRUPTLY COME TO AN END BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND COURTESY OF THE INTRUSION OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. THROUGH NEXT WEEK...DESPITE THE
PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED ANEMIC COLD
FRONTS...PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK TO BE MINIMAL. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY THE RETURN OF SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THUS A
GRADUAL WARMUP MID-LATE WEEK.

THE 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CALLED
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME...THE ONE
MONTH OUTLOOK FAVORED EQUAL CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL...ABOVE NORMAL
OR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AREA RESERVOIRS LEVELS GENERALLY TRENDED DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT OVER THE
PAST MONTH THOUGH WHITE RIVER LAKE SAW A MODEST RISE THANKS IN PART
TO A SNOWFALL EVENT EARLIER THIS MONTH.  THANKS TO THE COOLER
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE PAST MONTH...EVAPORATION RATES WERE
SLIGHTLY EASED.  SINCE SEPTEMBER 2013...LAKE LEVELS HAVE DECREASED
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 FEET.


THE FOLLOWING RESERVOIR CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED ON FEBRUARY 28TH:

RESERVOIR SUMMARY CONSERVATION POOL 4-WEEK MAXIMUM PERCENT OF
                         POOL TODAY CHANGE DEPTH CONSERVATION
                                           (FEET) CAPACITY
MACKENZIE LAKE           3100 3002.6 -0.3    53       5
WHITE RIVER LAKE         2370 2338.3  0.1    12       0
LAKE ALAN HENRY          2220 2205.5 -0.2    63      65


NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED ON MARCH 27TH OR SOONER
IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN CONDITIONS.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND
AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/:

DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

NOAA DROUGHT PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

NWS PRECIPITATION:
HTTP://WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/PRECIP/

USGS:
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

USACE:
HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/

USDA:
HTTP://WWW.USDA.GOV/OCE/WEATHER/

TEXAS AGRILIFE EXTENSION AGENCY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT:
HTTP://TODAY.AGRILIFE.ORG

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND THE NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...
THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE
NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES...
THE TEXAS TECH/WEST TEXAS MESONET...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION
SERVICES...THE USDA...USACE AND USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2579 SOUTH LOOP 289 SUITE 100
LUBBOCK TEXAS  79423
PHONE: 806-745-4260
SR-LUB.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV

$$

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