Area Forecast Discussion
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546
FXUS64 KLUB 140813
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
313 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH
PLAINS APPEARS TO BE CENTERED OVER NW TEXAS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FCST AREA PER WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY. A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT
RAIN PERSISTS ON THE NW FLANK OF THE LOW. THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIP PROBABLY
HANGING ON ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS TO AT LEAST MID-MORNING. THE
AFTN SHOULD THEN BE PRECIP-FREE AS THE LOW SHOULD BE OVER NRN
OKLAHOMA BY 18Z. ABUNDANT MID CLOUD KEEPING STRATUS AND FOG AT BAY
THIS MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ALREADY WORKING THROUGH MUCH OF ERN NEW
MEXICO AND INTO THE FAR WRN PANHANDLE WHICH RAISES SOME CONCERN FOR
FOG BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
DRY ADVECTION INTO THE NWRN FCST AREA TO KEEP THOSE CONCERNS AT BAY.

OTHERWISE...CLEARING SKIES TO WORK FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER THE MOIST GROUND THIS
AFTN WITH DIURNAL WARMING. TEMPS BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT NEAR MOS
VALUES LOOK FINE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...
AFTER THE UA LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION TODAY...A BRIEF
BREAK FROM PRECIP IS STILL PROGGED TO OCCUR THUS AFTN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING... AS FLATTENED UA RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD.
ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO AN UA TROUGH THAT IS MOVING ONSHORE
ACROSS THE NW PACIFIC REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED
TO CLOSE OFF WHILST NEARING THE FOUR- CORNERS WEDNESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. DURING WHICH TIME A FEW THINGS WILL BE HAPPENING:
AN EWRD MOVING SFC TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS SERN CO WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND PROMOTE BREEZY S-SW WINDS. A DIFFUSED DRYLINE WILL SETUP
ACROSS THE FA /SETTLING AROUND THE CAPROCK ESCARPMENT/...WITH A
TIGHTER/BETTER CONVERGENT SIGNAL NOTED MORE SO ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THUS IT COULD PERHAPS SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTN AS EXHIBITED PER THE BULLISH
NAM. OTHER SOLUTIONS ARE VOID OF PRECIP DURING THE AFTN HOURS
LIKELY BECAUSE MOISTURE RETURN IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE /PWATS
AOA 0.50 INCHES/ AND AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THE DRYLINE IS NOT
VERY SHARP ACROSS THE CWA. NONETHELESS...CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SO WILL INSERT BARELY MENTIONABLE
POPS FOR LOCALES MAINLY ON THE CAPROCK. HOWEVER BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING- NIGHT...PWATS IMPROVE TO 0.90 INCHES AND THE MAJORITY OF
THE SOLUTIONS /INCLUDING THE HIGH-RES TTU WRF/ SHOW CI OCCURRING
MORE SO DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME. FURTHERMORE...MUCAPE
VALUES INCREASING TO 600 J/KG OR SO COUPLED WITH VEERING VERTICAL
WIND PROFILES /WITH SW WINDS ALOFT INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING- NIGHT/...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IMPROVING TO 25-35
KTS...DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUGGEST
THAT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY.

THE GFS REMAINS THE OUTLIER WRT TO THE BEHAVIOR OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UA LOW...AS IT IS SHOWN TO STILL BE CONNECTED TO THE
PARENT TROUGH TRANSLATING EWRD ACROSS SRN CANADA A LOT LONGER
THAN OTHER SOLUTIONS...HENCE DEPICTING A MORE DAMPENED AND
SLIGHTLY QUICKER MOVING UA LOW NEARING THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK. OTHER SOLUTIONS /NAM...EMCWF AND DGEX/ EXHIBITS A
MORE CONCENTRIC UA LOW THAT GETS PINCHED OFF FROM THE PARENT
TROUGH...AND SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION BY EARLY WEEKEND.
NONETHELESS...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY STILL LOOKS VALID.

A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPINGE THE REGION THURSDAY
MORNING AND IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES BY
THE EVENING. MEANWHILE...SW FLOW ALOFT...MUCAPE AND 0-6 KM BULK
INCREASES FURTHER HENCE...CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. THEREAFTER...PRECIP WILL END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT GIVEN THE ONSET OF DRYSLOTTING. THE
UA LOW WILL GET SWEPT UP ANOTHER FAST MOVING UA TROUGH DIVING SE
FROM CANADA TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON SUNDAY BUT LACK OF UL SUPPORT
WILL LEAD TO NIL POPS. DRY NW FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO EARLY WEEKEND...AS THE UA LOW APPROACHES THE REGION /70S AND
80S ON WEDNESDAY FALLING TO THE 60S BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY/. WE WILL
WARM BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        64  44  75  45 /   0   0  10  30
TULIA         63  43  76  49 /  10   0  20  30
PLAINVIEW     63  44  75  50 /  10   0  20  30
LEVELLAND     64  46  77  52 /  10   0  20  30
LUBBOCK       64  45  77  53 /  10   0  20  30
DENVER CITY   64  46  77  52 /   0   0  20  30
BROWNFIELD    64  47  77  53 /  10   0  20  30
CHILDRESS     61  45  78  56 /  30   0  10  30
SPUR          62  46  78  56 /  20   0  10  40
ASPERMONT     63  47  80  58 /  20   0  10  40

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

07/29

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