Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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087
FXUS64 KLUB 150520
AFDLUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1120 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF CYCLE. SLIGHTLY
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
TOMORROW. WIND SPEEDS BY TOMORROW MORNING WILL DECLINE TO AOA 10
KTS AT BOTH KLBB AND KPVW...BUT STAY UP A BIT KCDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS /AOA 16 KTS/. TOMORROW EVENING...NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL DROP TO BELOW 10 KTS AT THREE TAF SITES WHILE FEW-SCT VFR
DECKS PASS OVERHEAD.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...
WIND SPEEDS RAMPED UP FOR THE MOST PART AS EXPECTED AS THE CORE OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TX/OK PANHANDLES
THANKS TO THE IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE MOVING FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN THE
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WIND AND EXPECT THAT SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WORST OF THE BLOWING DUST APPEARS TO HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST
WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOFTED DUST FOR
IT TO BE NOTICED ALL ACROSS THE CAPROCK WITH MINOR DROPS IN
VISIBILITY.  SKIES HAVE PRETTY WELL CLEARED ACROSS THE REGION
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME WRAP-AROUND LOW/MID CLOUDS TRYING TO ENCROACH
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.  EXPECT THESE TO DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET AND/OR MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW.

WIND ADVISORY LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL CONTINUE THIS
PRODUCT THROUGH 6PM.  TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL TO BELOW
FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE CAPROCK WITH MID 30S ACROSS ROLLING
PLAINS.  ALTHOUGH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES WILL BE IN PLACE...WIND
SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
BOTTOMING OUT ACROSS THE FAVORED NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS.
TOMORROW WILL ALSO BE A COOL DAY THANKS TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND
AND THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

JORDAN

LONG TERM...
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY...FOLLOWED QUICKLY BE
A WEAK EJECTING UPPER DISTURBANCE. THIS WAVE IS DISPLAYING NOW
WITH BETTER AGREEMENT PRODUCING MODEST LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
AS A 100-150 MILLIBAR DEEP MOIST LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
SPREADS MAINLY INTO EASTERN ZONES EARLY WEDNESDAY. BULK OF LIFT
AND DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD EDGE EAST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY.
WE HAVE TRIMMED SHOWER CHANCES LOWER FOR MOST AREAS ON THE CAPROCK
DUE TO THE LIMITED EXPECTED DEPTH OF MOISTURE AND OVERALL WEAKNESS
OF THE DISTURBANCE.

A BREAK SHOULD FOLLOW MOST OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE JUST IN ADVANCE OF A
MODERATE STRENGTH UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO SWING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY. THE LATEST GFS HAS DEEPENED EVER SO
SLIGHTLY MAINLY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM EARLY FRIDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE OPEN. OUR SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO
DEPICT VERY NEARLY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS PREFERRED ONCE
AGAIN. THIS PRESENTS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT CHANGING TO RAIN OR SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR SEEPS SOUTHWARD. MODEL SOLUTIONS NOT IN AGREEMENT AT
THIS POINT IF AIRMASS WILL EVEN SUPPORT FROZEN PHASE SO EXPECT TO
HONE IN ON VARIOUS ELEMENTS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. IN ANY CASE...MOST
RECENT SOLUTIONS STILL DO NOT SHOW A MAJOR ACCUMULATING TYPE
SYSTEM IN OUR AREA FRIDAY THOUGH ALSO DO NOT QUITE RULE THIS OUT.

UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BE FAVORED BY EARLY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS LIKELY TO DIG SOUTHWARD SOMEWHERE TO OUR WEST...
LIKELY TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY IMPACT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WE PREFER
A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK...BEYOND THIS FORECAST. RMCQUEEN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        27  53  23  51  29 /   0   0   0   0  10
TULIA         31  54  25  51  33 /   0   0   0   0  10
PLAINVIEW     31  54  25  53  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
LEVELLAND     33  55  26  52  34 /   0   0   0   0  10
LUBBOCK       33  56  28  52  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
DENVER CITY   34  58  27  53  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
BROWNFIELD    35  57  28  53  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
CHILDRESS     37  58  29  52  35 /   0   0   0   0  10
SPUR          36  59  28  52  36 /   0   0   0   0  10
ASPERMONT     39  60  29  53  39 /   0   0   0   0  20

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

29

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